2023 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2023 · Brooks Stadium (SC)
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Win probability · CCU
modelCCU aheadJMU aheadconfidence bandkey playCCU scoreJMU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:50 · Max Balthazar run for a loss of 1 yard to the CCU 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 5:41: Jordan McCloud run for 1 yd for a TD (Camden Wise KICK) — JMU win probability +3.5 pts (now 54%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 14:52: Jordan McCloud pass complete to Reggie Brown for 29 yds for a TD (Camden Wise KICK) — JMU win probability +6.6 pts (now 62%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:26: Elijah Sarratt run for 1 yd for a TD (Camden Wise KICK) — JMU win probability +16.2 pts (now 83%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:38: Ty Son Lawton run for 1 yd for a TD (Camden Wise KICK) — JMU win probability +6.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:22: Jordan McCloud pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 4 yds for a TD (Camden Wise KICK) — JMU win probability +2.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CCU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6JMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 12:46JMU 4th & 17 at JMU 18, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 62.2% before the snapGo for it62.1%−0.213% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call62.3%average punt
- Q1 11:54JMU 4th & 7 at CCU 45, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 62.1% before the snapGo for it62.2%−<0.137% to convertField goal62.1%−0.125% to makePuntTheir call62.2%average punt
- Q1 9:56CCU 4th & 3 at CCU 18, tiedClose callPunted · 38.3% before the snapGo for it38.3%51% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 9:56JMU 4th & 1 at CCU 21, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call61.6%71% to convertField goal61.4%−0.274% to makePunt60.8%−0.8average punt
- Q1 2:22CCU 4th & 10 at JMU 32, down 7Close callWent for it · 36.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call35.8%−0.230% to convertField goal36.0%51% to makePunt35.5%−0.5average punt
- Q2 11:54CCU 4th & 5 at CCU 37, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.1% before the snapGo for it29.1%−0.241% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.3%average punt
- Q2 9:45CCU 4th & 11 at CCU 46, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.1% before the snapGo for it27.5%−0.826% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.3%average punt
- Q3 12:54CCU 4th & 1 at CCU 34, down 28Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.2%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt4.1%−0.1average punt
- Q3 5:15JMU 4th & 1 at CCU 32, up 28Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.9%71% to convertField goal97.7%−0.251% to makePunt97.6%−0.2average punt
- Q4 12:53CCU 4th & 6 at CCU 36, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.3%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q4 0:50JMU 4th & 4 at JMU 41, up 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CCU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2JMU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
- Q1 5:41JMU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call62.3%97% to makeGo for two62.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:52JMU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call67.6%97% to makeGo for two67.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:26JMU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.1%97% to makeGo for two82.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:38JMU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.2%97% to makeGo for two96.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:22JMU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.6%97% to makeGo for two97.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:07CCU Touchdown, down 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call2.7%97% to makeGo for two2.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:15JMU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.6%97% to makeGo for two98.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:55JMU Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:47JMU Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:12CCU Touchdown, down 43 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call0.2%−<0.197% to makeGo for two0.2%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartJMUDrive 1PUNT6 plays · -7 yds · 2:1451% → 50%
Q1 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 23
-5
49.2%
James Madison Penalty, delay of game (Taurus Jones) to the JMU 18Similar
Q1 12:46
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
49.8%
Ryan Hanson punt for 34 yds , Jared Brown returns for no gain to the CCU 18 Coastal Carolina Penalty, illegal formation (Yards) to the CCU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5251% → 50%
CCUDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:5850% → 50%
JMUDrive 4TD10 plays · 50 yds · 4:1550% → 54%
Q1 9:56
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+10
49.6%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Phoenix Sproles for 10 yds to the CCU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
49.4%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Ty Son Lawton, broken up by JT KillenSimilar
Q1 9:56
3RD & 8
OPP 28
+7
49.7%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Phoenix Sproles for 7 yds to the CCU 21Similar
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+11
49.4%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kyi Wright for 11 yds to the CCU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 5DOWNS9 plays · 45 yds · 3:1447% → 46%
JMUDrive 6TD6 plays · 68 yds · 2:3055% → 62%
Q1 2:22
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+16
45.1%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Yamir Knight for 16 yds to the CCU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:22
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+14
44.7%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 14 yds to the CCU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
38.1%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Reggie Brown for 29 yds for a TD (Camden Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 7INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 8PUNT6 plays · 5 yds · 2:5140% → 37%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-7
40.2%
Braydon Bennett run for 3 yds to the CCU 35 Coastal Carolina Penalty, Offensive holding (Nick Del Grande) to the CCU 25Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 16
OWN 26
+5
39.9%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Braydon Bennett for 5 yds to the CCU 31Similar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 11
OWN 31
+6
39.7%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Braydon Bennett for 6 yds to the CCU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 9PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 2:0139% → 35%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 10TD13 plays · 71 yds · 6:1966% → 83%
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
33.4%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Phoenix Sproles for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
33.2%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Phoenix Sproles for 8 yds to the CCU 31Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 2
OPP 31
+12
33.1%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Phoenix Sproles for 12 yds to the CCU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-10
33.1%
McCloud,Jordan rush (Lusk,Keonte), PENALTY JMU holding (Wright,Kyi) 10 yards to the CCU-6. James Madison Penalty, Offensive holding (Kyi Wright) to the CCU 14Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
-5
33.2%
James Madison Penalty, false start (Carter Miller) to the CCU 19Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 19
+10
33.2%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Zach Horton for 1 yd to the CCU 18 for a 1ST down Coastal Carolina Penalty, personal foul (Clayton Isbell) to the CCU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 11FUMBLE4 plays · 23 yds · 0:0021% → 23%
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
21.3%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Jared Brown for 10 yds to the CCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
21.7%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Kendall Karr for 7 yds to the CCU 42Similar
Q2 3:26
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+6
22.7%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to CJ Beasley for 6 yds to the CCU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 12TD6 plays · 43 yds · 1:0886% → 92%
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+19
14.4%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 19 yds to the CCU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+14
14.1%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Phoenix Sproles for 14 yds to the CCU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
14.1%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Phoenix Sproles for 7 yds to the CCU 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 13END OF HALF7 plays · 69 yds · 0:007% → 8%
Q2 0:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
6.7%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 16 yds to the CCU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
7.2%
Ethan Vasko pass incomplete to Jared Brown, broken up by Francis MeehanSimilar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
6.9%
Ethan Vasko pass incomplete to Kyre Duplessis, broken up by Devyn ColesSimilar
Q2 0:38
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+53
6.8%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Jameson Tucker for 46 yds to the JMU 13 James Madison Penalty, face mask (7 yards) (Jacob Thomas) to the JMU 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 14DOWNS5 plays · 9 yds · 2:066% → 5%
JMUDrive 15TD7 plays · 34 yds · 2:3295% → 97%
Q3 12:54
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+14
5.7%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Phoenix Sproles for 14 yds to the CCU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
5.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Phoenix Sproles for 2 yds to the CCU 14Similar
Q3 12:54
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+10
5.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Phoenix Sproles for 10 yds to the CCU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
2.7%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 4 yds for a TD (Camden Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 16TD7 plays · 75 yds · 3:153% → 4%
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
2.9%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Jameson Tucker for 11 yds to the CCU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+6
2.8%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 6 yds to the CCU 41Similar
Q3 10:22
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+10
2.9%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Kendall Karr for 10 yds to the JMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:07
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+42
3.9%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Max Balthazar for 42 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 17TD5 plays · 41 yds · 1:4997% → 97%
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
2.9%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Yamir Knight for 7 yds to the CCU 34Similar
Q3 7:04
2ND & 3
OPP 34
0
2.6%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Taji Hudson, broken up by Tobias FletcherSimilar
Q3 5:15
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+32
2.7%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 32 yds for a TD (Camden Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 18FUMBLE3 plays · 5 yds · 0:552% → 1%
Q3 4:11
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+19
1.4%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Braydon Bennett for 19 yds Ethan Vasko fumbled, recovered by JMU D'Angelo Ponds Vasko,Ethan right pass complete to Bennett,Braydon for 19 yards to the JMU33, fumble by Vasko,Ethan recovered by JMU Ponds,D'Angelo.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 19TD9 plays · 67 yds · 4:1698% → 99%
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+14
1.6%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 14 yds to the JMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:11
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+15
1.5%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Ty Son Lawton for 15 yds to the CCU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
1.5%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Reggie Brown for 11 yds to the CCU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
0.8%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Zach Horton for 10 yds for a TD (Camden Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 2:021% → 0%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
0.6%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Reese White for a loss of 2 yards to the CCU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 21TD7 plays · 69 yds · 4:0699% → 100%
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
0.6%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Phoenix Sproles for 8 yds to the JMU 39Similar
Q4 12:53
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+18
0.6%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Reggie Brown for 18 yds to the CCU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:47
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+24
0.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 24 yds for a TD (Camden Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 22TD10 plays · 62 yds · 5:290% → 0%
Q4 8:41
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+18
0.2%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Brooks Johnson for 18 yds to the JMU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 23PUNT8 plays · 6 yds · 2:22100% → 100%
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-7
0.2%
Sammy Malignaggi run for 8 yds to the JMU 43 James Madison Penalty, personal foul (Carter Sweazie) to the JMU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:26
Elijah Sarratt run for 1 yd for a TD (Camden Wise KICK)
-16.2
TD · Q2 14:52
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Reggie Brown for 29 yds for a TD (Camden Wise KICK)
-6.6
TD · Q2 0:38
Ty Son Lawton run for 1 yd for a TD (Camden Wise KICK)
-6.5