Coastal Carolina

Profile vs. FBS, 2017

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1048th
  Defense+0.238th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense41.8%38th
  Defense47.9%9th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2881st
  Defense+1.1662nd
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.0758th
  Defense+0.1033rd
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.1241st
  Defense+0.405th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense45.0%26th
  Defense53.2%6th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense35.4%70th
  Defense36.5%20th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.8240th
  Defense2.8057th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense21.8%26th
  Defense19.7%50th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense20.6%4th
  Defense14.9%31st

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2017

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Coastal Carolina allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   MASS
2. L
   UAB
3. L
   WIU
4. L
   ULM
5. L
   GAST
6. L
   ARST
7. L
   APP
8. L
   TXST
9. L
   ARK
10. L
    TROY
11. W
    IDHO
12. W
    GASO

Bars above the line: better than expected for Coastal Carolina.

Players, 2017

1. Tyler KeaneQB182 plays · +0.236 pts/play · 98th of 226 QBs
   0.80WAR0.43 to 1.13
2. Osharmar AbercrombieRB127 plays · +0.162 pts/play · 59th of 352 RBs
   0.39WAR0.28 to 0.48
3. Malcolm WilliamsWR49 plays · +0.129 pts/play · 140th of 426 WRs
   0.12WAR0.08 to 0.16
4. Kilton AndersonQB98 plays · +0.062 pts/play · 196th of 226 QBs
   0.11WAR−0.06 to 0.29
5. Ky'Jon TylerWR44 plays · +0.112 pts/play · 215th of 426 WRs
   0.09WAR0.06 to 0.12
6. Dalton DemosQB36 plays · +0.112 pts/play · 206th of 226 QBs
   0.08WAR−0.03 to 0.18
7. Marcus OutlowRB12 plays · +0.001 pts/play · 292nd of 352 RBs
   0.00WAR−0.01 to 0.01
8. Alex JamesRB13 plays · −0.012 pts/play · 347th of 352 RBs
   0.00WAR−0.02 to 0.01

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Coastal Carolina's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2017

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  119119128th of 130Roster talent: 119, 128th of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  6060129th of 130Recruiting: 60, 129th of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  No data
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  No data

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2017

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Coastal Carolina's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 4 clear-cut ones account for 0.06 of the 0.12 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at ARKQ4 7:56 4th & 1 at CCU 34, up 6Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.9 pts
2. vs GASTQ4 12:37 4th & 2 at CCU 39, down 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.2 pts
3. at ARKQ4 1:55 4th & 10 at CCU 19, down 1Went for it; the numbers favored punting−1.2 pts
4. vs TROYQ3 8:58 4th & 1 at CCU 15, down 11Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.1 pts
5. vs MASSQ2 8:45 4th & 1 at CCU 44, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
6. vs TXSTQ2 10:23 4th & 1 at CCU 40, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
7. vs MASSQ3 9:24 4th & 4 at MASS 28, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
8. vs GASTQ3 14:53 4th & 2 at CCU 17, down 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2017

93rd of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Coastal Carolina's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   MASS
2. L

   UAB
3. L

   WIU
4. L

   ULM
5. L

   GAST
6. L

   ARST
7. L

   APP
8. L

   TXST
9. L

   ARK
10. L

    TROY
11. W

    IDHO
12. W

    GASO

What moved it, 2017

Every game starts at Coastal Carolina's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−1.39
• Possession & field position−0.03
• Clock−0.01
• Timeouts−0.03
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.77

Game by game

• MASSW 38-28 vs MASS43% → 96%Before kickoff −7 · On the field +53: Scoreboard +42
• UABL 23-30 at UAB43% → 10%Before kickoff −7 · On the field −33: Scoreboard −27, Possession & field position −2
• WIUL 10-52 vs WIU46% → 0%Before kickoff −4 · On the field −46: Scoreboard −50
• ULML 43-51 at ULM29% → 4%Before kickoff −21 · On the field −24: Scoreboard −26, Possession & field position −2
• GASTL 21-27 vs GAST47% → 5%Before kickoff −3 · On the field −42: Scoreboard −46, Clock −3
• ARSTL 17-51 at ARST14% → 0%Before kickoff −36 · On the field −14: Scoreboard −16
• APPL 29-37 at APP10% → 3%Before kickoff −40 · On the field −6: Scoreboard −15, Timeouts −1
• TXSTL 7-27 vs TXST73% → 1%Before kickoff +23 · On the field −72: Scoreboard −64, Clock −1
• ARKL 38-39 at ARK5% → 20%Before kickoff −45 · On the field +15: Scoreboard −8, Timeouts −1
• TROYL 17-42 vs TROY13% → 0%Before kickoff −37 · On the field −13: Scoreboard −19
• IDHOW 13-7 at IDHO32% → 90%Before kickoff −18 · On the field +58: Scoreboard +46, Clock +3
• GASOW 28-17 vs GASO42% → 98%Before kickoff −8 · On the field +56: Scoreboard +43, Timeouts +2

Points of win probability, from Coastal Carolina's side.

Closest call

CCU 27-21 USA (2021) - Coastal Carolina dropped to a 8.4% win probability before pulling it out.