YardLine - College football win probability

CCU

Coastal Carolina 45 at App State 37

APP

2025 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025 · Kidd Brewer Stadium

Speed4x

Win probability · APP

modelAPP aheadCCU aheadconfidence bandkey play

What moved it - hover a play below

Q4 0:00 · S. Collier takes a knee

CCU has the ball

−27

Blowout context favors the offense

−13

CCU leading by 8

−6

Market gave APP a 77% pregame chance

Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump

APP · Drive 1TD · 14 plays · 75 yds

Q1 15:00

Philippe Laforge kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

0.0

Q1 14:42

Rashod Dubinion run for 2 yds to the APP 27

+1.1

Q1 14:22

JJ Kohl run for 19 yds to the APP 46 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q1 13:55

Coastal Carolina Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Noah Arinze) to the CCU 37 for a 1ST down

+0.9

Q1 13:40

PENALTY APP Illegal Snap (Flowers,Will) 5 yards from CCU37 to CCU42. NO PLAY.

+1.0

Q1 13:28

JJ Kohl pass complete to Rashod Dubinion for 8 yds to the CCU 34

0.0

Q1 12:57

JJ Kohl pass complete to Davion Dozier for 15 yds to the CCU 19 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q1 12:30

Jaquari Lewis run for 5 yds to the CCU 14

0.0

Q1 12:08

Jaquari Lewis run for 7 yds to the CCU 7 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q1 11:33

Jaquari Lewis run for a loss of 3 yards to the CCU 10

0.0

Q1 11:02

Timeout App State, clock 11:02

-0.9

Q1 10:53

JJ Kohl sacked by Tray Brown for a loss of 5 yards to the CCU 15

0.0

Q1 10:10

JJ Kohl pass complete to Davion Dozier for 15 yds for a TD (Dominic De Freitas KICK)

+9.3

Q1 10:10

Timeout App State, clock 10:10

-1.5

CCU · Drive 2FG · 11 plays · 49 yds

Q1 10:10

Cash McVay kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

+1.1

Q1 9:57

Samari Collier pass complete to Ja'Vin Simpkins for 7 yds to the CCU 32

-1.1

Q1 9:34

Samari Collier run for 8 yds to the CCU 40 for a 1ST down App State Penalty, Defensive Offside (Thomas Davis) declined for a 1ST down

0.0

Q1 8:49

Ja'Vin Simpkins run for 22 yds to the APP 28 for a 1ST down

-1.2

Q1 8:38

Ja'Vin Simpkins run for 2 yds to the APP 26

-0.5

Q1 8:08

Samari Collier pass incomplete to Karmello English

+0.1

Q1 8:08

Timeout Coastal Carolina, clock 08:08

-0.5

Q1 8:02

Samari Collier pass incomplete to Bryson Graves

0.0

Q1 7:56

Kian Afrookhteh 43 yd FG GOOD

-5.8

Q1 7:56

Timeout App State, clock 07:56

0.0

Q1 7:56

(07:56) Laforge,Philippe kickoff 65 yards to the APP00, Touchback PENALTY APP Block Below Waist (Gibble,Jared) 15 yards from CCU35 to CCU50. NO PLAY.

+1.7

APP · Drive 3TD · 12 plays · 75 yds

Q1 7:56

Philippe Laforge kickoff for 50 yds for a touchback

-1.7

Q1 7:47

JJ Kohl pass complete to Izayah Cummings for 5 yds to the APP 30

+3.7

Q1 7:20

Jaquari Lewis run for 3 yds to the APP 33

0.0

Q1 6:40

JJ Kohl pass complete to Rashod Dubinion for 5 yds to the APP 38 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q1 6:08

JJ Kohl pass complete to Jaden Barnes for 8 yds to the APP 46

-0.6

Q1 5:39

JJ Kohl pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 16 yds to the CCU 38 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q1 5:13

Rashod Dubinion run for 2 yds to the CCU 36

+0.6

Q1 4:43

Jaquari Lewis run for 4 yds to the CCU 32

0.0

Q1 4:13

JJ Kohl pass incomplete to Jaden Barnes

-0.2

Q1 4:01

JJ Kohl pass complete to Izayah Cummings for 20 yds to the CCU 12 for a 1ST down

-0.5

Q1 3:26

Rashod Dubinion run for 12 yds for a TD (Dominic De Freitas KICK)

+11.8

Q1 3:26

Timeout App State, clock 03:26

-5.5

CCU · Drive 4TD · 9 plays · 65 yds

Q1 3:18

Cash McVay kickoff for 64 yds , Malcolm Gillie return for 34 yds to the CCU 35

+5.2

Q1 3:08

Samari Collier run for 9 yds to the CCU 44

-5.2

Q1 2:51

Samari Collier run for 3 yds to the CCU 47 for a 1ST down

-0.6

Q1 2:51

Timeout App State, clock 02:51

-1.2

Q1 2:19

MJ Morris pass complete to Robby Washington for 5 yds to the APP 48

-0.2

Q1 1:59

Jevon Edwards run for 3 yds to the APP 45

-0.2

Q1 1:22

MJ Morris run for 10 yds to the APP 35 for a 1ST down

+2.1

Q1 1:07

Jevon Edwards run for 1 yd to the APP 34

-0.6

Q1 0:30

MJ Morris pass complete to Malcolm Gillie for 34 yds for a TD (Kian Afrookhteh KICK)

-13.6

APP · Drive 5TD · 18 plays · 75 yds

Q1 0:30

Philippe Laforge kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

+2.5

Q1 0:25

JJ Kohl pass incomplete to Izayah Cummings

+4.0

Q1 0:00

JJ Kohl pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 8 yds to the APP 33

-0.1

Q2 14:54

Rashod Dubinion run for 4 yds to the APP 37 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q2 14:50

Timeout App State, clock 14:50

+1.0

Q2 14:34

Rashod Dubinion run for 1 yd to the APP 38

+1.8

Q2 13:55

JJ Kohl pass complete to Jaquari Lewis for 11 yds to the APP 49 for a 1ST down

+0.1

Q2 13:18

JJ Kohl pass complete to Alex Sanchez for 18 yds to the CCU 33 for a 1ST down

+0.3

Q2 13:00

Jaquari Lewis run for 3 yds to the CCU 30

+0.3

Q2 12:27

Jaquari Lewis run for a loss of 3 yards to the CCU 33

0.0

Q2 11:45

JJ Kohl pass complete to Izayah Cummings for 11 yds to the CCU 22 for a 1ST down

-0.1

Q2 11:17

Jaquari Lewis run for a loss of 3 yards to the CCU 25

+0.2

Q2 10:44

JJ Kohl pass incomplete to Davion Dozier

0.0

Q2 10:29

JJ Kohl pass complete to Sam Mbake for 13 yds to the CCU 12 for a 1ST down

-0.2

Q2 10:00

Jaquari Lewis run for no gain to the CCU 12

-1.4

Q2 9:27

JJ Kohl run for 6 yds to the CCU 6

0.0

Q2 8:45

JJ Kohl pass complete to Jaden Barnes for 6 yds for a TD (Dominic De Freitas KICK)

+11.6

Q2 8:45

Timeout App State, clock 08:45

-2.7

CCU · Drive 6TD · 15 plays · 75 yds

Q2 8:45

Cash McVay kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

+3.6

Q2 8:45

Timeout App State, clock 08:45

-3.6

Q2 8:36

Samari Collier run for 2 yds to the CCU 27

0.0

Q2 8:10

Samari Collier pass complete to Brooks Johnson for 4 yds to the CCU 31

+0.3

Q2 7:26

Samari Collier run for 13 yds to the CCU 44 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q2 7:02

Samari Collier pass incomplete to Karmello English

0.0

Q2 7:02

PENALTY CCU Delay Of Game (Collier,Samari) 5 yards from CCU44 to CCU39. NO PLAY.

0.0

Q2 6:53

Dominic Knicely run for 35 yds to the APP 26 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q2 6:00

Bryson Graves pass complete to Samari Collier for 7 yds to the APP 19

-0.7

Q2 5:25

Samari Collier run for 8 yds to the APP 11 for a 1ST down

-0.5

Q2 4:52

Ja'Vin Simpkins run for no gain to the APP 11

0.0

Q2 4:08

Samari Collier pass incomplete to Eli Aragon

0.0

Q2 3:56

Samari Collier pass complete to Bryson Graves for 7 yds to the APP 4

0.0

Q2 3:40

Samari Collier run for 4 yds for a TD (Kian Afrookhteh KICK)

-11.5

Q2 3:40

Timeout App State, clock 03:40

+0.2

CCU · Drive 7PUNT · 5 plays · -3 yds

Q2 3:37

Philippe Laforge kickoff for 12 yds

+1.5

Q2 3:31

Ja'Vin Simpkins run for no gain to the CCU 47

-1.5

Q2 2:55

Ja'Vin Simpkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the CCU 44

0.0

Q2 2:13

Samari Collier pass incomplete to Jameson Tucker

-0.1

Q2 2:00

Emile Sebafundi punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the APP 35 , Jaden Barnes returns for 23 yds to the APP 35

+0.2

APP · Drive 8PUNT · 8 plays · 5 yds

Q2 2:00

Timeout App State, clock 02:00

+11.8

Q2 1:54

Rashod Dubinion run for 3 yds to the APP 38

-0.3

Q2 1:25

JJ Kohl pass complete to Jaquari Lewis for 7 yds to the APP 45 for a 1ST down

+0.3

Q2 0:43

JJ Kohl sacked by Sawyer Goram-Welch for a loss of 3 yards to the APP 42 JJ Kohl fumbled, recovered by APP Cayden Sweatt , return for 0 yards

0.0

Q2 0:42

JJ Kohl sacked by Ibrahim Diawara for a loss of 2 yards to the APP 40

0.0

Q2 0:26

JJ Kohl pass incomplete to Jaden Barnes

-0.7

Q2 0:16

Ian Ratliff punt for 43 yds , Bryson Graves returns for 14 yds to the CCU 31

-0.3

Q2 0:16

Ian Ratliff punt for 43 yds , Bryson Graves returns for 14 yds to the CCU 31

0.0

APP · Drive 9FG · 1 play · 0 yds

Q2 0:05

Timeout App State, clock 00:05

-3.7

CCU · Drive 10INT · 1 play · 0 yds

Q2 0:04

Samari Collier pass intercepted Elijah Mc-Cantos return for 33 yds to the CCU 13

-11.0

APP · Drive 9FG · 1 play · 0 yds

Q2 0:00

Dominic De Freitas 31 yd FG GOOD

+16.9

CCU · Drive 11PUNT RETURN TD · 6 plays · 0 yds

Q3 15:00

Cash McVay kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

-5.1

Q3 14:54

Samari Collier sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the CCU 20

-3.6

Q3 14:16

Samari Collier sacked by Dylan Hasz for a loss of 1 yard to the CCU 19

0.0

Q3 13:37

Samari Collier pass complete to Bryson Graves for 6 yds to the CCU 25

-0.3

Q3 12:52

Emile Sebafundi punt for 52 yds , Jaden Barnes returns for 77 yds for a TD (Dominic De Freitas KICK)

+12.6

Q3 12:52

Timeout App State, clock 12:52

-0.3

CCU · Drive 12TD · 9 plays · 75 yds

Q3 12:52

Cash McVay kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

+2.9

Q3 12:42

Samari Collier run for 5 yds to the CCU 30

-2.9

Q3 12:14

Ja'Vin Simpkins run for 26 yds to the APP 44 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q3 11:48

Samari Collier pass complete to Zach Courtney for 10 yds Zach Courtney fumbled, recovered by CCU for a 1ST down

-0.4

Q3 11:19

Samari Collier run for 2 yds to the APP 32

-0.2

Q3 10:39

Robby Washington run for 7 yds to the APP 25

+0.2

Q3 10:09

Jevon Edwards run for 19 yds to the APP 6 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q3 9:49

Samari Collier run for 6 yds for a TD (Kian Afrookhteh KICK)

-13.4

Q3 9:49

Timeout App State, clock 09:49

+5.9

APP · Drive 13FG · 15 plays · 68 yds

Q3 9:49

Philippe Laforge kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

-4.2

Q3 9:42

Rashod Dubinion run for 10 yds to the APP 35 for a 1ST down

+4.2

Q3 9:14

Rashod Dubinion run for 2 yds to the APP 37

0.0

Q3 8:35

JJ Kohl run for 2 yds to the APP 39

+0.2

Q3 8:12

JJ Kohl pass incomplete to Jaden Barnes

-0.1

Q3 8:00

Juan Berchal run for 22 yds to the CCU 39 for a 1ST down

-0.4

Q3 7:27

Rashod Dubinion run for no gain to the CCU 39

+0.9

Q3 6:56

JJ Kohl pass complete to Alex Sanchez for 12 yds to the CCU 27 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q3 6:32

Rashod Dubinion run for 2 yds to the CCU 25

0.0

Q3 5:49

JJ Kohl run for 15 yds to the CCU 10 for a 1ST down

+0.2

Q3 5:17

Jaquari Lewis run for 3 yds to the CCU 7

0.0

Q3 4:48

JJ Kohl pass incomplete to Izayah Cummings

-0.5

Q3 4:42

JJ Kohl pass incomplete to Rashod Dubinion

-0.1

Q3 4:37

Dominic De Freitas 25 yd FG GOOD

+7.2

Q3 4:37

Timeout App State, clock 04:37

-4.0

CCU · Drive 14TD · 10 plays · 75 yds

Q3 4:32

Samari Collier run for no gain to the CCU 25

0.0

Q3 4:32

Cash McVay kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

+4.0

Q3 3:54

Samari Collier pass complete to Cameron Wright for 4 yds to the CCU 29

-4.3

Q3 3:14

Samari Collier pass complete to Cameron Wright for 14 yds to the CCU 43 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q3 2:42

Samari Collier pass complete to Bryson Graves for 8 yds to the APP 49

0.0

Q3 2:21

Dominic Knicely run for 4 yds to the APP 45 for a 1ST down

-0.1

Q3 1:41

Samari Collier pass complete to Brooks Johnson for 2 yds to the APP 43

-0.1

Q3 1:03

Malcolm Gillie run for 1 yd to the APP 42

+1.0

Q3 0:26

PENALTY APP Offside (Manuel,Dylan) 5 yards from APP42 to APP37. NO PLAY.

+1.6

Q3 0:04

Samari Collier pass complete to Jameson Tucker for 37 yds for a TD (Kian Afrookhteh KICK)

-19.7

APP · Drive 15FG · 16 plays · 84 yds

Q3 0:03

Philippe Laforge kickoff for 65 yds , Khamani Alexander return for 11 yds to the APP 11

+2.6

Q3 0:00

Jaquari Lewis run for 10 yds to the APP 21 for a 1ST down

+3.5

Q4 14:53

JJ Kohl pass incomplete to Dalton Stroman

0.0

Q4 14:48

JJ Kohl pass complete to Izayah Cummings for 10 yds to the APP 31 for a 1ST down

+0.9

Q4 14:04

JJ Kohl pass complete to Davion Dozier for 35 yds to the CCU 34 for a 1ST down

-0.1

Q4 13:33

Jaquari Lewis run for 3 yds to the CCU 31

+1.1

Q4 12:49

JJ Kohl pass complete to Jaden Barnes for 6 yds to the CCU 25

0.0

Q4 12:03

JJ Kohl pass complete to Izayah Cummings for 6 yds to the CCU 19 for a 1ST down

-0.2

Q4 11:37

Jaquari Lewis run for 4 yds to the CCU 15

+0.2

Q4 11:02

Jaquari Lewis run for 5 yds to the CCU 10

0.0

Q4 10:20

Jaquari Lewis run for 5 yds to the CCU 5 for a 1ST down

+0.8

Q4 9:53

JJ Kohl pass incomplete to Davion Dozier

-0.2

Q4 9:48

JJ Kohl pass incomplete to Davion Dozier

0.0

Q4 9:20

JJ Kohl run for no gain to the CCU 5

-0.5

Q4 9:03

Dominic De Freitas 23 yd FG GOOD

+8.5

Q4 9:03

Timeout App State, clock 09:03

-4.7

CCU · Drive 16TD · 16 plays · 75 yds

Q4 9:03

Cash McVay kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

+4.4

Q4 8:53

Samari Collier run for 4 yds to the CCU 29

-4.4

Q4 8:21

Samari Collier pass complete to Karmello English for 6 yds to the CCU 35 for a 1ST down

-0.2

Q4 8:11

Ja'Vin Simpkins run for 1 yd to the CCU 36

0.0

Q4 7:38

Samari Collier pass complete to Robby Washington for 13 yds to the CCU 49 for a 1ST down

-0.1

Q4 7:31

Ja'Vin Simpkins run for 5 yds to the APP 46

-1.5

Q4 6:56

Jevon Edwards run for 3 yds to the APP 43

+0.6

Q4 6:21

(06:25) No Huddle-Shotgun Collier,Samari pass incomplete deep right to Tucker,Jameson thrown to APP05 PENALTY APP Pass Interference (Floyd,Emory) 15 yards from APP43 to APP28, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

-0.4

Q4 6:10

Samari Collier run for 5 yds to the APP 23

-0.5

Q4 5:28

Samari Collier pass incomplete

+1.4

Q4 5:21

Samari Collier run for 11 yds to the APP 12 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q4 4:44

Dominic Knicely run for 9 yds to the APP 3

-1.1

Q4 4:26

Dominic Knicely run for 2 yds to the APP 1 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q4 3:37

Samari Collier run for no gain to the APP 1

+0.8

Q4 3:19

Dominic Knicely run for 1 yd for a TD (Kian Afrookhteh KICK)

-35.5

Q4 3:19

Timeout App State, clock 03:19

+10.1

APP · Drive 17DOWNS · 6 plays · 8 yds

Q4 3:08

Philippe Laforge kickoff for 65 yds , Juan Berchal return for 19 yds to the APP 19

-8.3

Q4 3:08

PENALTY APP False Start (Flowers,Will) 5 yards from APP19 to APP14. NO PLAY.

+8.3

Q4 3:03

JJ Kohl pass incomplete to Dalton Stroman

0.0

Q4 2:50

JJ Kohl pass complete to Izayah Cummings for 8 yds to the APP 22

0.0

Q4 2:22

JJ Kohl pass incomplete to Dalton Stroman

0.0

Q4 2:16

JJ Kohl pass complete to Davion Dozier for 5 yds to the APP 27

0.0

CCU · Drive 18TD · 5 plays · 27 yds

Q4 2:09

Ja'Vin Simpkins run for 12 yds to the APP 15 for a 1ST down

-11.6

Q4 2:08

Timeout App State, clock 02:08

0.0

Q4 2:00

Jevon Edwards run for 7 yds to the APP 8

0.0

Q4 2:00

Timeout App State, clock 02:00

+2.9

Q4 1:56

Jevon Edwards run for 8 yds for a TD (Kian Afrookhteh KICK)

-31.7

APP · Drive 19FUMBLE · 10 plays · 25 yds

Q4 1:56

Philippe Laforge kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

+0.1

Q4 1:51

(01:54) Shotgun Kohl,J.J. pass intercepted by Murphy,Luke at APP29 QB hurried by Diawara,Ibrahim PENALTY CCU Face Mask (Mooyoung,Myles) 15 yards from APP25 to APP40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

+1.9

Q4 1:43

JJ Kohl pass complete to Jaquari Lewis for 8 yds to the APP 48

0.0

Q4 1:37

JJ Kohl pass complete to Jaquari Lewis for 5 yds to the CCU 47 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q4 1:25

JJ Kohl pass complete to Jaden Barnes for 5 yds to the CCU 42

0.0

Q4 1:06

JJ Kohl pass complete to Jaquari Lewis for 10 yds to the CCU 32 for a 1ST down

+0.4

Q4 0:55

(00:58) No Huddle-Shotgun Kohl,J.J. pass complete short right to Cummings,Izayah caught at CCU27, for 7 yards to the CCU25 (Jones,Avyonne; Whitaker,Lionell), out of bounds PENALTY APP Pass Interference (Stroman,Dalton) 15 yards from CCU32 to CCU47. NO PLAY.

+0.5

Q4 0:50

JJ Kohl pass incomplete to Jaden Barnes

-1.1

Q4 0:44

JJ Kohl pass incomplete to Davion Dozier

0.0

Q4 0:37

JJ Kohl sacked by Zeke Campbell for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard line JJ Kohl fumbled, recovered by CCU Noah Arinze , return for 0 yards to the 50 yard line

+0.2

CCU · Drive 20END OF GAME · 1 play · -3 yds

Q4 0:00

S. Collier takes a knee

-0.4

Biggest swings

TD · Q4 3:19

Dominic Knicely run for 1 yd for a TD (Kian Afrookhteh KICK)

-35.5

TD · Q4 1:56

Jevon Edwards run for 8 yds for a TD (Kian Afrookhteh KICK)

-31.7

TD · Q3 0:04

Samari Collier pass complete to Jameson Tucker for 37 yds for a TD (Kian Afrookhteh KICK)

-19.7