Coastal Carolina

Profile vs. FBS, 2022

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1871st
  Defense+0.1722nd
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense46.3%79th
  Defense44.2%27th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2448th
  Defense+1.406th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.0437th
  Defense+0.0466th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.4295th
  Defense+0.388th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense52.4%84th
  Defense49.3%29th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense32.5%65th
  Defense33.6%24th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.0848th
  Defense2.9272nd
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense15.7%65th
  Defense19.2%72nd
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense14.0%69th
  Defense18.1%77th

Percentiles among the 131 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2022

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Coastal Carolina allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   ARMY
2. W
   GWEB
3. W
   BUF
4. W
   GAST
5. W
   GASO
6. W
   ULM
7. L
   ODU
8. W
   MRSH
9. W
   APP
10. W
    USM
11. L
    JMU
12. L
    TROY
13. L
    ECU

Bars above the line: better than expected for Coastal Carolina.

Players, 2022

1. Grayson McCallQB296 plays · +0.355 pts/play · 23rd of 234 QBs
   1.97WAR1.36 to 2.54
2. CJ BeasleyRB129 plays · +0.111 pts/play · 109th of 384 RBs
   0.27WAR0.17 to 0.38
3. Reese WhiteRB67 plays · +0.160 pts/play · 152nd of 384 RBs
   0.20WAR0.15 to 0.25
4. Jared BrownWR66 plays · +0.119 pts/play · 116th of 455 WRs
   0.15WAR0.05 to 0.25
5. Tyson MobleyWR35 plays · +0.178 pts/play · 184th of 455 WRs
   0.12WAR0.07 to 0.17
6. Sam PinckneyWR71 plays · +0.084 pts/play · 191st of 455 WRs
   0.11WAR−0.01 to 0.27
7. Jarrett GuestQB68 plays · +0.086 pts/play · 195th of 234 QBs
   0.11WAR−0.11 to 0.27
8. Bryce CarpenterQB24 plays · +0.169 pts/play · 204th of 234 QBs
   0.08WAR−0.01 to 0.16

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Coastal Carolina's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2022

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  44744797th of 129Roster talent: 447, 97th of 129 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  14514589th of 129Recruiting: 145, 89th of 129 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  58%58%66th of 128Returning production: 58%, 66th of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +0.6+0.668th of 129SP+ rating: +0.6, 68th of 129 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 129 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2022

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Coastal Carolina's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 4 clear-cut ones account for 0.06 of the 0.10 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs ODUQ2 0:00 4th & 17 at ODU 43, down 7Went for it; the numbers favored punting−2.5 pts
2. vs ODUQ4 11:07 4th & 16 at ODU 19, down 21Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−1.1 pts
3. at GASTQ4 9:02 4th & 2 at GAST 41, up 17Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.0 pts
4. at ULMQ4 0:28 4th & 8 at ULM 37, up 7Punted; the numbers favored a field goal−1.0 pts
5. at MRSHQ2 9:34 4th & 1 at CCU 32, up 21Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−1.0 pts
6. at GASTQ2 9:17 4th & 4 at GAST 7, up 14Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts
7. vs BUFQ2 2:10 4th & 9 at BUF 41, up 5Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts
8. at GASTQ4 14:03 4th & 3 at GAST 21, up 17Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2022

25th of 131 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Coastal Carolina's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   ARMY
2. W

   GWEB
3. W

   BUF
4. W

   GAST
5. W

   GASO
6. W

   ULM
7. L

   ODU
8. W

   MRSH
9. W

   APP
10. W

    USM
11. L

    JMU
12. L

    TROY
13. L

    ECU

What moved it, 2022

Every game starts at Coastal Carolina's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+1.29
• Possession & field position+0.05
• Clock+0.06
• Timeouts+0.05
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.50

Game by game

• ARMYW 38-28 vs ARMY62% → 96%Before kickoff +12 · On the field +34: Scoreboard +33, Possession & field position +1
• GWEBW 31-27 vs GWEB97% → 95%Before kickoff +47 · On the field −2: Scoreboard +9
• BUFW 38-26 vs BUF81% → 99%Before kickoff +31 · On the field +17: Scoreboard +22, Timeouts +1
• GASTW 41-24 at GAST57% → 99%Before kickoff +7 · On the field +42: Scoreboard +48, Clock +2
• GASOW 34-30 vs GASO77% → 96%Before kickoff +27 · On the field +19: Scoreboard +25, Possession & field position +1
• ULMW 28-21 at ULM82% → 89%Before kickoff +32 · On the field +7: Scoreboard +29, Clock +2
• ODUL 21-49 vs ODU78% → 0%Before kickoff +28 · On the field −78: Scoreboard −69, Other −1
• MRSHW 24-13 at MRSH43% → 95%Before kickoff −7 · On the field +52: Scoreboard +52, Clock +2
• APPW 35-28 vs APP42% → 97%Before kickoff −8 · On the field +55: Scoreboard +40, Timeouts +3
• USMW 26-23 vs USM62% → 96%Before kickoff +12 · On the field +34: Scoreboard +31, Timeouts +2
• JMUL 7-47 at JMU20% → 0%Before kickoff −30 · On the field −20: Scoreboard −23
• TROYL 26-45 at TROY37% → 1%Before kickoff −13 · On the field −36: Scoreboard −36, Timeouts −1
• ECUL 29-53 at ECU29% → 0%Before kickoff −21 · On the field −29: Scoreboard −32

Points of win probability, from Coastal Carolina's side.

Closest call

CCU 27-21 USA (2021) - Coastal Carolina dropped to a 8.4% win probability before pulling it out.