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USM

Southern Miss 23 at Coastal Carolina 26

CCU
2022 · Week 11 · Nov 12, 2022 · Brooks Stadium (SC)
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Win probability · CCU
modelCCU aheadUSM aheadconfidence bandkey playCCU scoreUSM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDTDFGFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · B. Carpenter takes a knee
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+24.5+12.30−12.3−24.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:36: Kenyon Clay run for 1 yd for a TD, (Briggs Bourgeois KICK) — USM win probability +6.8 pts (now 34%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:14: Trey Lowe pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 15 yds for a TD, (Briggs Bourgeois KICK) — USM win probability +11.4 pts (now 45%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 1:51: Kade Hensley 28 yd FG GOOD — CCU win probability +5.3 pts (now 61%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 10:44: Briggs Bourgeois 23 yd FG GOOD — USM win probability +11.7 pts (now 62%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:20: Reese White run for 2 yds for a TD, (Kade Hensley PAT BLOCKED) — CCU win probability +23.6 pts (now 81%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CCU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6USM made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 10:48USM 4th & 13 at USM 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.1%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:22USM 4th & 11 at USM 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.5%−0.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:13CCU 4th & 5 at USM 26, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.7%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.8%
    64% to make
    Punt
    69.1%−3.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:41USM 4th & 4 at CCU 4, down 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.5%−0.7
    93% to make
    Punt
    13.9%−8.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:40CCU 4th & 21 at CCU 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.5%−3.0
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:40CCU 4th & 21 at CCU 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.5%−3.0
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:02CCU 4th & 1 at USM 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    61.9%−1.4
    32% to make
    Punt
    61.4%−1.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:14USM 4th & 5 at CCU 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.6%
    92% to make
    Punt
    33.5%−9.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:53CCU 4th & 18 at CCU 17, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.1%−4.8
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:19USM 4th & 9 at CCU 49, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.2%−1.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:51CCU 4th & 5 at USM 10, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.9%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.2%
    88% to make
    Punt
    38.0%−13.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00USM 4th & 1 at USM 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    42.7%−4.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:44USM 4th & 4 at CCU 5, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 47.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.3%−2.0
    92% to make
    Punt
    24.2%−23.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:11USM 4th & 12 at CCU 41, down 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.3 ptsPunted · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.8%−1.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    28.9%
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    27.7%−1.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:00USM 4th & 10 at USM 48, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.4%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.9%−3.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CCU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3USM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 13:03CCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:50CCU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:36USM Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:14USM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:20CCU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    70.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CCUDrive 1TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:5762% → 63%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
62.2%
Braydon Bennett run for 3 yds to the CCaro 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
62.2%
Jared Brown run for 1 yd to the CCaro 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+41
62.2%
Jarrett Guest pass complete to Braydon Bennett for 41 yds to the SoMis 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
63.1%
Aaron Bedgood run for 30 yds for a TD, (Kade Hensley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:1537% → 36%
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
62.8%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 10 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
62.7%
Antavious Willis run for 10 yds to the SoMis 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
62.7%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 2 yds to the SoMis 47Similar
Q1 13:03
2ND & 8
OWN 47
0
62.6%
Trey Lowe pass incomplete to Jakarius CastonSimilar
Q1 13:03
3RD & 8
OWN 47
-5
62.7%
Trey Lowe sacked by Josaiah Stewart for a loss of 5 yards to the SoMis 42Similar
Q1 10:48
4TH & 13
OWN 42
0
63.6%
Mason Hunt punt for 28 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 3TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 2:5864% → 68%
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+21
63.6%
Braydon Bennett run for 21 yds to the SoMis 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
64.0%
Bryce Carpenter run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:48
2ND & 11
50
+48
63.8%
Jarrett Guest pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 48 yds to the SoMis 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
64.1%
Bryce Carpenter run for 1 yd to the SoMis 3Similar
Q1 10:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
64.1%
Reese White run for 1 yd to the SoMis 2Similar
Q1 10:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
63.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Guest,Jarrett pass incomplete short right to Pinckney,Sam PENALTY USM Holding (Scott,Eric) 1 yard from USM02 to USM01, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
68.3%
Reese White run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kade Hensley KICK)Similar
Q1 7:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
68.3%
PENALTY USM Offside (Brooks,Natrone) 2 yards from USM03 to USM03. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:2233% → 32%
Q1 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
67.1%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the SoMis 29Similar
Q1 7:44
2ND & 7
OWN 29
0
67.0%
Trey Lowe pass incomplete to Demarcus JonesSimilar
Q1 7:44
3RD & 7
OWN 29
-4
67.2%
Trey Lowe sacked for a loss of 4 yards to the SoMis 25Similar
Q1 6:22
4TH & 11
OWN 25
0
68.3%
Mason Hunt punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Tyson Mobley at the CCaro 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 5FG
11 plays · 32 yds · 4:0969% → 74%
Q1 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
69.4%
Jarrett Guest pass complete to Jared Brown for 1 yd to the CCaro 43Similar
Q1 6:22
2ND & 9
OWN 43
0
69.4%
Jarrett Guest pass incomplete to Sam PinckneySimilar
Q1 5:48
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+13
69.0%
Jarrett Guest run for 13 yds to the SoMis 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
69.6%
Jarrett Guest run for 1 yd to the SoMis 45Similar
Q1 5:48
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+14
69.5%
Jarrett Guest pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 14 yds to the SoMis 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
69.6%
Bryce Carpenter run for 2 yds to the SoMis 29Similar
Q1 5:48
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+3
69.6%
Bryce Carpenter run for 3 yds to the SoMis 26Similar
Q1 2:23
3RD & 5
OPP 26
0
71.9%
Jarrett Guest pass incomplete to CJ BeasleySimilar
Q1 2:13
4TH & 5
OPP 26
+43
73.8%
Kade Hensley 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 6FG
12 plays · 61 yds · 5:2528% → 27%
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
72.4%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the SoMis 36Similar
Q1 2:06
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
72.4%
Trey Lowe pass incomplete to Jakarius CastonSimilar
Q1 2:06
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+22
72.8%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 22 yds to the CCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+18
71.7%
Frank Gore Jr. pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 18 yds to the CCaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
73.4%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 8 yds to the CCaro 16Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 16
+2
73.4%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 2 yds to the CCaro 18Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+8
74.0%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 8 yds to the CCaro 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
73.4%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 6 yds to the CCaro 4Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
73.4%
Antavious Willis run for 2 yds to the CCaro 2Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
74.0%
Kenyon Clay run for 2 yds to the CCaro 4Similar
Q2 11:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
72.8%
Briggs Bourgeois 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 7INT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:4675% → 76%
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
74.9%
Jared Brown run for 3 yds to the CCaro 28Similar
Q2 11:41
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+15
74.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Guest,Jarrett pass incomplete short left to Pinckney,Sam PENALTY USM Pass Interference (Toles,Brendan) 15 yards from CCU28 to CCU43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
75.8%
Reese White run for 1 yd to the CCaro 44Similar
Q2 11:41
2ND & 9
OWN 44
0
75.7%
Jarrett Guest pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:55
3RD & 9
OWN 44
0
76.0%
Jarrett Guest pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 8TD
7 plays · 39 yds · 2:1926% → 34%
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
73.9%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for 9 yds to the CCaro 30Similar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+3
72.8%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the CCaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+20
72.8%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 20 yds to the CCaro 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-10
72.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Gore,Frank rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CCU04 (Bruce,Shane; Robinson,Josiah) PENALTY USM Holding (Ramsey,Bryce) 10 yards from CCU07 to CCU17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 17
+15
73.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Lowe III,Trey pass incomplete short right to Brownlee,Jason PENALTY CCU Pass Interference (Boykin,Lance) 15 yards from CCU17 to CCU02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
72.8%
PENALTY CCU Delay Of Game (Stewart,Josaiah) 1 yard from CCU02 to CCU01. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
66.1%
Kenyon Clay run for 1 yd for a TD, (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -11 yds · 1:5670% → 69%
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.8%
Reese White run for no gain to the CCaro 25Similar
Q2 7:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
69.6%
Braydon Bennett run for 5 yds to the CCaro 20Similar
Q2 7:36
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
68.8%
COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 5:40
4TH & 21
OWN 14
0
68.6%
Evan Crenshaw punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:40
4TH & 21
OWN 14
+23
68.6%
Evan Crenshaw punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the COASTALCAR 48 COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, Kick Catch Interference (-15 Yards) to the CCaro 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 10TD
5 plays · 37 yds · 1:2632% → 45%
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
67.9%
Trey Lowe pass incomplete to Jason BrownleeSimilar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+23
68.0%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for 23 yds to the CCaro 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
66.4%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the CCaro 15Similar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 11
OPP 15
0
66.9%
Frank Gore Jr. pass incomplete to Chandler PittmanSimilar
Q2 4:14
3RD & 11
OPP 15
+15
55.4%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 15 yds for a TD, (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 11END OF HALF
13 plays · 29 yds · 4:1461% → 60%
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
61.1%
CJ Beasley run for 2 yds to the CCaro 27Similar
Q2 4:14
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+8
61.2%
CJ Beasley run for 8 yds to the CCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
61.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Guest,Jarrett pass incomplete short middle to Roberts,Tyler PENALTY USM Pass Interference (Jones,Jay) 15 yards from CCU35 to CCU50, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
50
+2
63.6%
Braydon Bennett run for 2 yds to the SoMis 48Similar
Q2 4:14
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+3
63.8%
Jarrett Guest run for 3 yds to the SoMis 45Similar
Q2 4:14
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+4
63.4%
Jarrett Guest run for 4 yds to the SoMis 41Similar
Q2 1:02
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+4
61.6%
Reese White run for 4 yds to the SoMis 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-7
63.6%
Jarrett Guest sacked by Santrell Latham for a loss of 7 yards to the SoMis 44Similar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 17
OPP 44
0
61.8%
Jarrett Guest pass incomplete to Sam PinckneySimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 17
OPP 44
+2
60.2%
Jarrett Guest run for 2 yds to the SoMis 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 12FG
10 plays · 70 yds · 3:4643% → 49%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
57.2%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 5 yds to the SoMis 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+32
56.4%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for 32 yds to the CCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+12
54.1%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 12 yds to the CCaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
52.9%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Cole Cavallo for 2 yds to the CCaro 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+19
52.9%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 19 yds to the CCaro 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
52.9%
Trey Lowe pass incomplete to Jason BrownleeSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
52.9%
Frank Gore Jr. run for no gain to the CCaro 5Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
54.1%
Trey Lowe pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
51.0%
Briggs Bourgeois 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · -8 yds · 2:2153% → 49%
Q3 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
52.5%
Reese White run for 2 yds to the CCaro 23Similar
Q3 11:14
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+9
52.2%
Jarrett Guest pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 9 yds to the CCaro 32Similar
Q3 11:14
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-10
52.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Guest,Jarrett rush middle for 26 yards gain to the USM42 (Shorts,Malik) PENALTY CCU Holding (Moise,Willie) 10 yards from CCU32 to CCU22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:14
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-5
50.6%
PENALTY CCU Delay Of Game 5 yards from CCU22 to CCU17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:14
3RD & 18
OWN 17
0
50.6%
Jarrett Guest pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:53
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
49.1%
Evan Crenshaw punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Natrone Brooks at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:3454% → 50%
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
50
-6
46.5%
Trey Lowe sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the SoMis 44Similar
Q3 8:53
2ND & 16
OWN 44
0
49.0%
Trey Lowe pass incomplete to Demarcus JonesSimilar
Q3 8:53
3RD & 16
OWN 44
-5
49.9%
PENALTY USM False Start (Willis,Antavious) 5 yards from USM44 to USM39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:53
3RD & 21
OWN 39
+12
50.0%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 12 yds to the CCaro 49Similar
Q3 7:19
4TH & 9
OPP 49
0
49.9%
Mason Hunt punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CCaro 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 15FG
10 plays · 81 yds · 5:2851% → 61%
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
50.6%
CJ Beasley run for 2 yds to the CCaro 11Similar
Q3 7:19
2ND & 8
OWN 11
+3
50.9%
Bryce Carpenter run for 3 yds to the CCaro 14Similar
Q3 7:19
3RD & 5
OWN 14
+15
49.3%
Jarrett Guest pass complete to Tyson Mobley for 15 yds to the CCaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
51.7%
Reese White run for 2 yds to the CCaro 31Similar
Q3 7:19
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+43
51.9%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Braydon Bennett for 28 yds to the COASTALCAR 41 for a 1ST down SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Tylan Knight) to the SoMis 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+11
57.5%
Reese White run for 11 yds to the SoMis 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
57.5%
Aaron Bedgood run for 1 yd to the SoMis 16Similar
Q3 7:19
2ND & 11
OPP 16
+2
57.3%
Bryce Carpenter run for 2 yds to the SoMis 14Similar
Q3 7:19
3RD & 9
OPP 14
+4
55.5%
Reese White run for 4 yds to the SoMis 10Similar
Q3 1:51
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+28
60.8%
Kade Hensley 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 16FG
16 plays · 73 yds · 6:0144% → 62%
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
56.0%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for 2 yds to the SoMis 24Similar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+13
55.9%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 13 yds to the SoMis 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
54.5%
Kenyon Clay run for 3 yds to the SoMis 40Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
52.4%
Trey Lowe pass incomplete to Jason BrownleeSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+6
54.2%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 6 yds to the SoMis 46Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+2
54.0%
Kenyon Clay run for 2 yds to the SoMis 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
51.3%
Trey Lowe sacked by Ja'Quon Griffin for a loss of 5 yards to the SoMis 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 43
0
54.4%
Trey Lowe pass incomplete to Tiaquelin MimsSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 43
+46
55.5%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 46 yds to the CCaro 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
49.0%
Frank Gore Jr. run for no gain to the CCaro 11Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+6
49.0%
Kenyon Clay run for 6 yds to the CCaro 5Similar
Q4 10:51
3RD & 4
OPP 5
0
50.1%
Trey Lowe pass incomplete to Jason BrownleeSimilar
Q4 10:44
4TH & 4
OPP 5
+23
38.4%
Briggs Bourgeois 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 17TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:2448% → 76%
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+56
47.7%
CJ Beasley run for 56 yds to the SoMis 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+17
57.0%
Reese White run for 17 yds to the SoMis 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
80.5%
Reese White run for 2 yds for a TD, (Kade Hensley PAT BLOCKED)Similar
Q4 9:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
80.2%
PENALTY CCU False Start (Lampkin,Willie) 5 yards from USM03 to USM08. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
75.7%
PENALTY USM UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Scott,Eric) 15 yards from CCU35 to CCU50. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 39 yds · 3:0727% → 25%
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
73.1%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the SoMis 17Similar
Q4 9:18
2ND & 13
OWN 17
0
73.7%
Trey Lowe pass incomplete to Jason BrownleeSimilar
Q4 9:18
3RD & 13
OWN 17
+30
75.0%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Cole Cavallo for 30 yds to the SoMis 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
69.0%
Trey Lowe pass incomplete to Latreal JonesSimilar
Q4 9:18
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+14
70.2%
Trey Lowe run for 14 yds to the CCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
67.5%
Trey Lowe pass incomplete to Jalen MaySimilar
Q4 9:18
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-2
67.6%
Trey Lowe sacked by Adrian Hope for a loss of 2 yards to the CCaro 41Similar
Q4 9:18
3RD & 12
OPP 41
0
71.1%
Trey Lowe pass incomplete to Jalen MaySimilar
Q4 6:11
4TH & 12
OPP 41
0
75.4%
Mason Hunt punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 19INT
8 plays · 39 yds · 3:1777% → 88%
Q4 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
76.8%
Braydon Bennett run for 4 yds to the CCaro 16Similar
Q4 6:11
2ND & 14
OWN 16
+8
76.1%
Bryce Carpenter run for 8 yds to the CCaro 24Similar
Q4 6:11
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+35
75.5%
Jarrett Guest pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 35 yds to the SoMis 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
84.1%
Reese White run for 1 yd to the SoMis 40Similar
Q4 4:16
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+1
84.0%
Bryce Carpenter run for 1 yd to the SoMis 41Similar
Q4 2:54
3RD & 10
OPP 41
0
87.6%
Jarrett Guest pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 20FUMBLE
8 plays · 30 yds · 1:5413% → 13%
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
86.7%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Cole Cavallo for 3 yds to the SoMis 13Similar
Q4 2:54
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+11
86.9%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Cole Cavallo for 11 yds to the SoMis 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
86.4%
Trey Lowe pass incomplete to Latreal JonesSimilar
Q4 2:54
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+24
86.6%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for 24 yds to the SoMis 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
83.2%
Trey Lowe run for no gain to the SoMis 48Similar
Q4 2:54
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
84.2%
Trey Lowe pass incomplete to Jason BrownleeSimilar
Q4 2:54
3RD & 10
OWN 48
0
85.1%
Trey Lowe pass incomplete to Jason BrownleeSimilar
Q4 1:00
4TH & 10
OWN 48
-8
87.3%
Trey Lowe sacked by Josaiah Stewart for a loss of 8 yards to the SoMis 40 Trey Lowe fumbled, recovered by CCaro Josaiah Stewart , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 21END OF GAME
3 plays · -14 yds · 1:0093% → 96%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-4
93.3%
B. Carpenter takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 14
OPP 44
-5
92.9%
PENALTY CCU Delay Of Game 5 yards from USM44 to USM49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 19
OPP 49
-5
95.8%
B. Carpenter takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:20
Reese White run for 2 yds for a TD, (Kade Hensley PAT BLOCKED)
+23.6
FG · Q4 10:44
Briggs Bourgeois 23 yd FG GOOD
-11.7
TD · Q2 4:14
Trey Lowe pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 15 yds for a TD, (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)
-11.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com