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CCU

Coastal Carolina 26 at Troy 45

TROY
2022 · Week 14 · Dec 3, 2022 · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
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Win probability · TROY
modelTROY aheadCCU aheadconfidence bandkey playTROY scoreCCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:10 · Grayson McCall pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 64Home team on offense+21.3Score differential+18.2Pregame prior+7.8Garbage-time factor+4.5Blowout margin+8.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:09: DK Billingsley run for 8 yds for a TD (Brooks Buce KICK) — TROY win probability +5.3 pts (now 73%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:36: DK Billingsley run for 33 yds for a TD (Brooks Buce KICK) — TROY win probability +5.5 pts (now 85%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:29: Grayson McCall run for 8 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK) — CCU win probability +6.6 pts (now 10%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 12:08: Grayson McCall pass complete to Jared Brown for 30 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — CCU win probability +7.5 pts (now 15%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:42: Gunnar Watson pass complete to RaJae' Johnson for 36 yds for a TD (Brooks Buce KICK) — TROY win probability +5.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TROY made the numbers' call on 4 of 6CCU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 11:07TROY 4th & 4 at CCU 18, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.9%−<0.1
    79% to make
    Punt
    67.4%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:40CCU 4th & 3 at CCU 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.8%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:52CCU 4th & 17 at CCU 29, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.3%−0.6
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:50CCU 4th & 1 at CCU 34, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    22.9%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:51TROY 4th & 20 at CCU 42, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.3%−0.8
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    78.9%−0.3
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    79.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:21CCU 4th & 8 at CCU 10, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.3%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:33CCU 4th & 8 at CCU 27, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.4%−0.8
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:47TROY 4th & 3 at TROY 33, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    87.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:10CCU 4th & 11 at TROY 37, down 31
    Close callWent for it · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.4%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    4.4%
    40% to make
    Punt
    4.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:04TROY 4th & 19 at TROY 28, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.5%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.6%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:55CCU 4th & 9 at TROY 11, down 32
    Close callWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%
    87% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:12TROY 4th & 14 at CCU 41, up 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    99.4%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:01TROY 4th & 6 at CCU 42, up 19
    Close callPunted · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    98.4%−0.3
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.5%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:45CCU 4th & 4 at TROY 38, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    1.5%−0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    1.2%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TROY made the numbers' call on 6 of 6CCU made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 9:28TROY Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:09TROY Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:36TROY Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:47TROY Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:29CCU Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:08CCU Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    9.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    9.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:42TROY Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 4:49TROY Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 14:55CCU Touchdown, down 26 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    0.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    0.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 6:09CCU Touchdown, down 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1FG
11 plays · 57 yds · 3:4263% → 63%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
63.0%
Kimani Vidal run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 24Similar
Q1 14:34
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+21
63.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deyunkrea Lewis for 21 yds to the Troy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
63.1%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the Troy 46Similar
Q1 13:13
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+1
63.1%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the Troy 47Similar
Q1 12:55
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+29
63.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 29 yds to the CCaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
63.4%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the CCaro 23Similar
Q1 11:24
2ND & 9
OPP 23
0
63.4%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:17
3RD & 9
OPP 23
+5
63.2%
COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the CCaro 18Similar
Q1 11:11
3RD & 4
OPP 18
0
63.3%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:07
4TH & 4
OPP 18
+35
63.4%
Brooks Buce 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:0037% → 36%
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
63.3%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 4 yds to the CCaro 29Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
63.2%
CJ Beasley run for 3 yds to the CCaro 32Similar
Q1 9:48
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
63.3%
Grayson McCall pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:40
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
63.6%
Evan Crenshaw punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Troy 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3TD
1 play · 65 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q1 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+65
65.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 65 yds for a TD (Brooks Buce KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 3:2635% → 34%
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
64.6%
Braydon Bennett run for 5 yds to the CCaro 30Similar
Q1 8:35
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
64.6%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 6 yds to the CCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
64.8%
Grayson McCall run for 3 yds to the CCaro 39Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 7
OWN 39
-4
64.8%
Grayson McCall pass complete to CJ Beasley for a loss of 4 yards to the CCaro 35Similar
Q1 6:30
3RD & 11
OWN 35
-6
65.7%
Grayson McCall sacked by Will Choloh for a loss of 6 yards to the CCaro 29Similar
Q1 5:52
4TH & 17
OWN 29
+10
66.2%
Evan Crenshaw punt for 43 yds , Orlando Lacey returns for 10 yds to the Troy 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5TD
4 plays · 62 yds · 1:3167% → 73%
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+18
67.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 18 yds to the CCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
67.7%
DK Billingsley run for 9 yds to the CCaro 35Similar
Q1 4:26
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+27
67.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to RaJae' Johnson for 27 yds to the CCaro 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
73.2%
DK Billingsley run for 8 yds for a TD (Brooks Buce KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 6DOWNS
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:5528% → 26%
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-14
72.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 14 yards to the CCaro 11 TEAM fumbled, recovered by CCaroSimilar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 24
OWN 11
+11
72.9%
Braydon Bennett run for 11 yds to the CCaro 22Similar
Q1 2:45
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+12
73.4%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Tyson Mobley for 12 yds to the CCaro 34Similar
Q1 1:50
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-2
73.6%
Grayson McCall run for a loss of 2 yards to the CCaro 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 1:4975% → 76%
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-10
75.4%
TROY Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the CCaro 42Similar
Q1 1:11
1ST & 20
OPP 42
+1
75.9%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the CCaro 41Similar
Q1 1:11
2ND & 19
OPP 41
-6
75.8%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Adrian Hope for a loss of 6 yards to the CCaro 48 Gunnar Watson fumbled, recovered by Troy Clayton Ollendieck , return for 0 yards , return for a loss of 1 yard to the CCaro 48Similar
Q1 0:20
3RD & 26
OPP 48
+6
76.1%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 6 yds to the CCaro 42Similar
Q2 14:51
4TH & 20
OPP 42
0
75.9%
Mike Rivers punt for 34 yds, downed at the CCaro 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1324% → 23%
Q2 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
76.4%
Reese White run for 1 yd to the CCaro 9Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 9
OWN 9
0
76.9%
Grayson McCall pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 9
OWN 9
+1
77.3%
Grayson McCall run for 1 yd to the CCaro 10Similar
Q2 13:21
4TH & 8
OWN 10
0
77.3%
Evan Crenshaw punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the CCaro 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 9TD
2 plays · 48 yds · 0:1979% → 85%
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
79.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 15 yds to the CCaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
84.8%
DK Billingsley run for 33 yds for a TD (Brooks Buce KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:3916% → 16%
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
83.8%
CJ Beasley run for 2 yds to the CCaro 27Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
84.1%
Grayson McCall pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:40
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
84.4%
Grayson McCall pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:33
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+47
84.5%
Evan Crenshaw punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the TROY 36 TROY Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Troy 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 11TD
5 plays · 74 yds · 1:2486% → 90%
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
85.6%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the Troy 28Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+4
85.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 19 yds to the Troy 47 TROY Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (-15 Yards) to the Troy 32Similar
Q2 10:28
2ND & 4
OWN 32
0
86.3%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:10
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+1
86.3%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the Troy 33Similar
Q2 9:47
4TH & 3
OWN 33
+67
89.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to RaJae' Johnson for 67 yds for a TD (Brooks Buce KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 12DOWNS
10 plays · 38 yds · 3:1513% → 5%
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
86.9%
Reese White run for 17 yds to the CCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
91.1%
Reese White run for 11 yds to the Troy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
91.2%
Reese White run for 3 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+8
91.5%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Tyson Mobley for 8 yds to the Troy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
91.9%
CJ Beasley run for 5 yds to the Troy 31Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 5
OPP 31
-10
91.1%
COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Troy 41Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 15
OPP 41
0
92.5%
Grayson McCall pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:36
3RD & 15
OPP 41
+4
92.9%
CJ Beasley run for 4 yds to the Troy 37Similar
Q2 6:10
4TH & 11
OPP 37
0
95.0%
Grayson McCall pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 1:5195% → 96%
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
94.9%
DK Billingsley run for 1 yd to the Troy 38Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
95.2%
DK Billingsley run for no gain to the Troy 38Similar
Q2 4:44
3RD & 9
OWN 38
-10
96.2%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Jerrod Clark for a loss of 10 yards to the Troy 28Similar
Q2 4:04
4TH & 19
OWN 28
+7
96.2%
Mike Rivers punt for 49 yds , Tyson Mobley returns for 7 yds to the CCaro 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 14TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 3:044% → 10%
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
96.2%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 5 yds to the CCaro 35Similar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+4
95.9%
Braydon Bennett run for 4 yds to the CCaro 39Similar
Q2 2:53
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+4
96.0%
Braydon Bennett run for 4 yds to the CCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
96.9%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 9 yds to the Troy 48Similar
Q2 2:02
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+9
96.6%
Braydon Bennett run for 9 yds to the Troy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+23
97.3%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Tyson Mobley for 23 yds to the Troy 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
96.8%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 6 yds to the Troy 10Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+2
96.5%
CJ Beasley run for 2 yds to the Troy 8Similar
Q2 0:29
3RD & 2
OPP 8
+8
89.9%
Grayson McCall run for 8 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
92.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 16TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:379% → 15%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
91.5%
CJ Beasley run for 16 yds to the CCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
91.2%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 15 yds to the Troy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
90.8%
Grayson McCall pass complete to CJ Beasley for 8 yds to the Troy 36Similar
Q3 13:22
2ND & 2
OPP 36
-2
90.6%
Grayson McCall run for 8 yds to the Troy 28 COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Troy 38Similar
Q3 12:34
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+8
92.4%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Braydon Bennett for 8 yds to the Troy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
84.9%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jared Brown for 30 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 17TD
7 plays · 72 yds · 2:5891% → 98%
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-3
90.8%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Kennedy Roberts for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 25Similar
Q3 11:11
2ND & 13
OWN 25
+22
90.8%
Kimani Vidal run for 22 yds to the Troy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
91.7%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the Troy 47Similar
Q3 9:55
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+5
92.1%
Kimani Vidal run for 5 yds to the CCaro 48Similar
Q3 8:55
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+12
92.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 12 yds to the CCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
97.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to RaJae' Johnson for 36 yds for a TD (Brooks Buce KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 18FUMBLE
2 plays · -12 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-12
97.0%
Grayson McCall sacked by T.J. Jackson for a loss of 12 yards to the CCaro 7 Grayson McCall fumbled, recovered by Troy T.J. Jackson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 19TD
11 plays · 7 yds · 3:1198% → 99%
Q3 8:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
97.7%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the CCaro 6Similar
Q3 7:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
97.7%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
97.7%
COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (4 Yards) to the CCaro 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
97.7%
TROY Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CCaro 7Similar
Q3 7:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-4
97.7%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Ja'Quon Griffin for a loss of 4 yards to the CCaro 11Similar
Q3 6:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
-4
98.1%
Kimani Vidal run for a loss of 4 yards to the CCaro 15Similar
Q3 5:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
+4
98.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to RaJae' Johnson for 4 yds to the CCaro 11Similar
Q3 5:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+6
98.2%
COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, Personal Foul (6 Yards) to the CCaro 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
98.6%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the CCaro 3Similar
Q3 4:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
98.6%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.4%
DK Billingsley run for 3 yds for a TD (Brooks Buce KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 20TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:251% → 1%
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
98.7%
Reese White run for 4 yds to the CCaro 29Similar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
99.1%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jared Brown for 5 yds to the CCaro 34Similar
Q3 3:08
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
99.4%
Reese White run for 2 yds to the CCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
99.6%
Reese White run for 3 yds to the CCaro 39Similar
Q3 2:16
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+15
99.6%
TROY Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Troy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
99.6%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jared Brown for 15 yds to the Troy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+19
99.6%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Tyson Mobley for 19 yds to the Troy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
99.6%
Grayson McCall run for 1 yd to the Troy 11Similar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 9
OPP 11
0
99.6%
Grayson McCall pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:01
3RD & 9
OPP 11
0
99.7%
Grayson McCall pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 9
OPP 11
+11
99.5%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 11 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 3:48100% → 100%
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
99.5%
DK Billingsley run for 2 yds to the CCaro 46Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+3
99.5%
DK Billingsley run for 3 yds to the CCaro 43Similar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+6
99.5%
Kimani Vidal run for 6 yds to the CCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
99.5%
Kimani Vidal run for a loss of 1 yard to the CCaro 38Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 11
OPP 38
-3
99.5%
Kimani Vidal run for a loss of 3 yards to the CCaro 41Similar
Q4 10:45
3RD & 14
OPP 41
0
99.5%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the CCaro 41Similar
Q4 10:12
4TH & 14
OPP 41
0
99.5%
Mike Rivers punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CCaro 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 22TD
10 plays · 85 yds · 3:500% → 3%
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
99.8%
Reese White run for 3 yds to the CCaro 18Similar
Q4 9:31
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+7
99.8%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 7 yds to the CCaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.8%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 8 yds to the CCaro 33Similar
Q4 8:28
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+10
99.8%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Xavier Gravette for 10 yds to the CCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
99.8%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Tyson Mobley for 15 yds to the Troy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
99.8%
Grayson McCall run for 8 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q4 6:47
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+8
99.8%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 8 yds to the Troy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
99.8%
Grayson McCall pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:29
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+5
99.8%
Grayson McCall run for 5 yds to the Troy 21Similar
Q4 6:09
3RD & 5
OPP 21
+21
96.9%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Tyson Mobley for 21 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:5999% → 99%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-2
98.7%
Kimani Vidal run for a loss of 2 yards to the CCaro 48Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 12
OPP 48
+8
98.8%
Gunnar Watson run for 8 yds to the CCaro 40Similar
Q4 5:06
3RD & 4
OPP 40
-2
99.0%
DK Billingsley run for a loss of 2 yards to the CCaro 42Similar
Q4 5:01
4TH & 6
OPP 42
0
99.0%
Mike Rivers punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Tyson Mobley at the CCaro 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 24INT
11 plays · 84 yds · 2:522% → 2%
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+28
98.4%
Grayson McCall pass complete to CJ Beasley for 28 yds to the CCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
98.2%
TROY Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the CCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+12
98.2%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Xavier Gravette for 12 yds to the Troy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
98.2%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Xavier Gravette for 2 yds to the Troy 42Similar
Q4 3:24
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+4
98.2%
Grayson McCall run for 4 yds to the Troy 38Similar
Q4 2:56
3RD & 4
OPP 38
0
98.2%
Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Tyson MobleySimilar
Q4 2:45
4TH & 4
OPP 38
+13
98.3%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 13 yds to the Troy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
98.0%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Tyson Mobley for 11 yds to the Troy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
97.9%
Grayson McCall pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+4
97.9%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 4 yds to the Troy 10Similar
Q4 1:48
3RD & 6
OPP 10
-5
98.1%
Grayson McCall pass intercepted TJ Harris return for 5 yds to the Troy 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 25END OF 4TH QUARTER
3 plays · 20 yds · 1:1899% → 99%
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+20
99.3%
Kimani Vidal run for 20 yds to the Troy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
99.4%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the Troy 30Similar
Q4 0:20
2ND & 9
OWN 30
-1
99.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:08
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jared Brown for 30 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-7.5
TD · Q2 0:29
Grayson McCall run for 8 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK)
-6.6
TD · Q2 12:36
DK Billingsley run for 33 yds for a TD (Brooks Buce KICK)
+5.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com