2022 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2022 · Brooks Stadium (SC)
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Win probability · CCU
modelCCU aheadGWEB aheadconfidence bandkey playCCU scoreGWEB score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:02 · Evan Crenshaw punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Cutrell Haywood at the GrdWb 7
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 6:05: Bailey Fisher run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jay Billingsley KICK) — GWEB win probability +8.2 pts (now 14%) (top driver: GWEB has the ball).
- FG · Q3 1:15: Jay Billingsley 29 yd FG GOOD — GWEB win probability +5.7 pts (now 19%) (top driver: GWEB has the ball).
- TD · Q4 10:33: Bailey Fisher run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jay Billingsley KICK) — GWEB win probability +29.1 pts (now 55%) (top driver: GWEB has the ball).
- TD · Q4 10:28: Dominik Sojat kickoff for 49 yds , Matthew McDoom return for 10 yds to the CCaro 45 COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the CCaro 16 — CCU win probability +4.5 pts (now 50%) (top driver: GWEB has the ball).
- TD · Q4 6:25: Grayson McCall pass complete to Jacob Jenkins for 7 yds for a TD, (Kade Hensley KICK) — CCU win probability +22.4 pts (now 86%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CCU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6GWEB made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q1 10:13CCU 4th & 5 at CCU 47, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 96.4% before the snapGo for it96.4%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.4%average punt
- Q1 7:20GWEB 4th & 24 at CCU 48, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snapGo for it4.1%−0.27% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.2%average punt
- Q1 4:36CCU 4th & 7 at GWEB 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.3% before the snapGo for it95.3%−<0.137% to convertField goalTheir call95.3%56% to makePunt95.2%−0.1average punt
- Q1 1:02CCU 4th & 6 at GWEB 39, up 3Close callPunted · 94.6% before the snapGo for it94.6%40% to convertField goal94.5%−0.136% to makePuntTheir call94.5%−0.1average punt
- Q2 11:02GWEB 4th & 17 at GWEB 49, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.6% before the snapGo for it6.4%−0.314% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.7%average punt
- Q2 8:31CCU 4th & 9 at CCU 34, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.9% before the snapGo for it91.7%−0.431% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.0%average punt
- Q2 6:16GWEB 4th & 10 at CCU 30, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.4% before the snapGo for it8.0%−0.229% to convertField goalTheir call8.2%56% to makePunt7.7%−0.5average punt
- Q3 12:51GWEB 4th & 17 at GWEB 33, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.1% before the snapGo for it7.4%−1.414% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.8%average punt
- Q3 4:22CCU 4th & 13 at CCU 23, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.1% before the snapGo for it88.2%−1.919% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call90.1%average punt
- Q3 1:15GWEB 4th & 4 at CCU 12, down 7Close callKicked a field goal · 12.9% before the snapGo for it12.7%45% to convertField goalTheir call12.2%−0.586% to makePunt5.1%−7.5average punt
- Q4 1:26CCU 4th & 13 at GWEB 40, up 4Close callPunted · 91.0% before the snapGo for it89.5%−1.021% to convertField goal90.5%34% to makePuntTheir call90.1%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CCU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4GWEB made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q2 5:56CCU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.0%97% to makeGo for two93.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:16CCU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.5%97% to makeGo for two95.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:39GWEB Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call6.9%97% to makeGo for two6.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:33CCU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.2%97% to makeGo for two95.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:05GWEB Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call8.7%97% to makeGo for two8.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:33GWEB Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call41.8%97% to makeGo for two40.8%−1.045% to convert
- Q4 6:25CCU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call77.3%−0.597% to makeGo for two77.7%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCCUDrive 1PUNT13 plays · 29 yds · 4:4097% → 96%
Q1 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+9
97.0%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jared Brown for 9 yds to the CCaro 27Similar
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
97.0%
PENALTY GWU Offside (Jackson,Charlie) 5 yards from CCU29 to CCU34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:53
3RD & 4
OWN 35
-10
97.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun McCall,Grayson pass complete short middle to Mobley,Tyson for 4 yards to the CCU39 (Thomas,A.J.) PENALTY CCU Holding (Lampkin,Willie) 10 yards from CCU35 to CCU25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:53
3RD & 14
OWN 25
+17
97.0%
Grayson McCall pass complete to CJ Beasley for 17 yds to the CCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 2PUNT8 plays · 25 yds · 2:534% → 4%
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
96.2%
Bailey Fisher pass complete to Cutrell Haywood for 8 yds to the GrdWb 35Similar
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+12
96.2%
Bailey Fisher pass complete to Deland Thomas for 12 yds to the CCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
96.1%
Bailey Fisher pass complete to Cutrell Haywood for 10 yds to the CCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:13
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
96.1%
GARDNER-WEBB Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Bailey Fisher) to the CCaro 49Similar
Q1 7:20
4TH & 24
OPP 48
+16
95.6%
Austin Hendley punt for 30 yds , Tyson Mobley returns for 16 yds to the CCaro 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 3FG5 plays · 36 yds · 2:4496% → 95%
GWEBDrive 4FUMBLE5 plays · 39 yds · 0:475% → 5%
Q1 4:28
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+26
95.2%
Bailey Fisher pass complete to Janiero Crankfield for 26 yds to the CCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
95.0%
Bailey Fisher pass complete to Cutrell Haywood for 5 yds to the CCaro 43Similar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+8
94.8%
Bailey Fisher run for 8 yds to the CCaro 35 Bailey Fisher fumbled, recovered by CCaro Jairan ParkerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 26 yds · 2:3995% → 94%
GWEBDrive 6PUNT12 plays · 42 yds · 5:006% → 7%
Q1 1:02
2ND & 8
OWN 9
+11
94.4%
Bailey Fisher pass complete to T.J. Luther for 11 yds to the GrdWb 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
94.1%
Bailey Fisher pass complete to Deland Thomas for 8 yds to the GrdWb 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 28
-10
94.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Fisher,Bailey pass incomplete short right to Luther,T.J. PENALTY GWU Holding (Burke,Travis) 10 yards from GWU28 to GWU18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 21
OWN 9
+26
94.3%
Bailey Fisher pass complete to T.J. Luther for 26 yds to the GrdWb 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
94.0%
Bailey Fisher pass complete to Deland Thomas for 3 yds to the GrdWb 38Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+18
93.9%
Bailey Fisher pass complete to Cutrell Haywood for 18 yds to the CCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 44
-7
93.9%
Bailey Fisher sacked by Braylon Ryan for a loss of 7 yards to the GrdWb 49Similar
Q2 11:02
4TH & 17
OWN 49
0
93.1%
Austin Hendley punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CCaro 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 7PUNT6 plays · 11 yds · 2:3193% → 92%
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
92.8%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 8 yds to the CCaro 31Similar
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
92.9%
Grayson McCall sacked by Christian Wright for a loss of 5 yards to the CCaro 28Similar
Q2 11:02
3RD & 15
OWN 28
+6
92.5%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 6 yds to the CCaro 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 8FUMBLE3 plays · 40 yds · 0:018% → 9%
CCUDrive 9FUMBLE2 plays · 6 yds · 1:2692% → 92%
GWEBDrive 10FG5 plays · 0 yds · 0:4810% → 10%
Q2 7:04
3RD & 5
OPP 25
-5
90.8%
PENALTY GWU False Start (Schneider,Kyle) 5 yards from CCU25 to CCU30. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 11TD4 plays · 33 yds · 0:3194% → 96%
Q2 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+12
93.9%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Tyson Mobley for 22 yds to the GrdWb 11 for a 1ST down COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, Illegal Block (Sam Pinckney) to the GrdWb 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
95.6%
G. McCall pass,to T. Mobley for 21 yds for a TD, (K. Hensley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 12TD12 plays · 75 yds · 2:375% → 9%
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
94.9%
Bailey Fisher pass complete to Donovan Jones for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:16
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+24
94.7%
Bailey Fisher pass complete to Deland Thomas for 24 yds to the CCaro 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:37
3RD & 10
OPP 21
+16
94.7%
Bailey Fisher run for 10 yds to the CCaro 11 for a 1ST down COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Allen Henry) to the CCaro 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
91.0%
B. Fisher pass,to C. Haywood for 2 yds for a TD, (J. Billingsley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 13INT6 plays · 35 yds · 1:0993% → 93%
Q2 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
92.5%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Reese White for 6 yds to the CCaro 28Similar
Q2 2:34
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+7
92.7%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jared Brown for 7 yds to the CCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+22
92.6%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 22 yds to the GrdWb 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
93.0%
Grayson McCall pass intercepted GARDNER-WEBB Penalty, Illegal Block (Ga'Marcus Freeman) to the CCaro 3Similar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-10
93.0%
Grayson McCall pass intercepted GARDNER-WEBB Penalty, Offensive Holding (Josiah Wright) to the CCaro 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 14END OF HALF8 plays · 19 yds · 1:2510% → 10%
Q2 1:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
90.3%
Bailey Fisher pass complete to Cutrell Haywood for 1 yd to the CCaro 8Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
90.4%
No Huddle Fisher,Bailey pass incomplete short right to Haywood,Cutrell broken up by Strong,D'Jordan PENALTY CCU Pass Interference (Strong,D'Jordan) 6 yards from CCU08 to CCU02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
90.4%
No Huddle Fisher,Bailey pass incomplete short left to Thomas,Deland PENALTY GWU Illegal Shift (Luther,T.J.) 5 yards from CCU02 to CCU07. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 15PUNT7 plays · 8 yds · 2:098% → 8%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
91.6%
Bailey Fisher pass complete to Janiero Crankfield for 5 yds to the GrdWb 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+4
91.2%
Bailey Fisher pass complete to Cutrell Haywood for 4 yds to the GrdWb 44Similar
Q3 12:51
4TH & 17
OWN 33
0
91.6%
Austin Hendley punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Tyson Mobley at the CCaro 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 16TD8 plays · 71 yds · 4:1891% → 96%
Q3 12:51
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+16
91.7%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:51
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+28
92.1%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Tyler Roberts for 28 yds to the GrdWb 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
95.7%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Tyson Mobley for 7 yds for a TD, (Kade Hensley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 17TD6 plays · 75 yds · 2:285% → 14%
CCUDrive 18PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 1:3691% → 89%
Q3 4:22
4TH & 13
OWN 23
0
88.9%
Evan Crenshaw punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Cutrell Haywood at the GrdWb 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 19FG9 plays · 46 yds · 3:0713% → 19%
Q3 4:22
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+5
87.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Fisher,Bailey sacked for loss of 7 yards to the GWU35 (Stewart,Josaiah) PENALTY CCU Illegal Substitution 5 yards from GWU42 to GWU47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+29
86.5%
Bailey Fisher pass complete to Karim Page for 29 yds to the CCaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-15
85.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Fisher,Bailey pass complete short right to Haywood,Cutrell for 3 yards to the CCU15 (Brown,Jahmar) PENALTY GWU Pass Interference (Jones,Donovan) 15 yards from CCU18 to CCU33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:22
1ST & 25
OPP 33
+18
86.3%
Bailey Fisher pass complete to Karim Page for 18 yds to the CCaro 15Similar
Q3 4:22
3RD & 9
OPP 17
+5
86.7%
Bailey Fisher pass complete to Karim Page for 5 yds to the CCaro 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 20PUNT10 plays · 7 yds · 3:2085% → 81%
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
84.6%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Reese White for 2 yds to the CCaro 27Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
83.4%
PENALTY GWU Offside (McRae,Salik) 5 yards from CCU31 to CCU36, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+8
85.4%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Reese White for 8 yds to the CCaro 39Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 18
OWN 39
-15
83.2%
COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the CCaro 32Similar
Q4 12:55
3RD & 25
OWN 32
0
81.2%
Evan Crenshaw punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Cutrell Haywood at the GrdWb 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 21TD7 plays · 67 yds · 2:2220% → 55%
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
79.9%
Bailey Fisher pass complete to Cutrell Haywood for 11 yds to the GrdWb 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
78.1%
Bailey Fisher pass complete to Cutrell Haywood for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:46
2ND & 4
50
-10
75.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Fisher,Bailey pass complete deep left to Haywood,Cutrell for 50 yards to the CCU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 11:46 PENALTY GWU Holding (Polson,Travis) 10 yards from CCU50 to GWU40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:46
2ND & 14
OWN 40
+53
79.7%
Bailey Fisher pass complete to T.J. Luther for 53 yds to the CCaro 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 22TD11 plays · 84 yds · 4:0356% → 86%
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+14
55.9%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 14 yds to the CCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+32
56.5%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Deon Fountain for 32 yds to the GrdWb 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:28
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+5
61.2%
PENALTY GWU Offside (McRainey,William) 5 yards from GWU33 to GWU28, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-6
63.6%
Grayson McCall sacked by William McRainey for a loss of 6 yards to the GrdWb 34Similar
Q4 10:28
3RD & 16
OPP 34
+18
57.5%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 18 yds to the GrdWb 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:25
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+7
86.0%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jacob Jenkins for 7 yds for a TD, (Kade Hensley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 23INT4 plays · -4 yds · 0:5124% → 22%
CCUDrive 24PUNT8 plays · 13 yds · 4:0287% → 92%
GWEBDrive 25INT2 plays · 35 yds · 0:2221% → 26%
CCUDrive 26END OF GAME4 plays · -14 yds · 1:0494% → 95%
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:33
Bailey Fisher run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jay Billingsley KICK)
-29.1
TD · Q4 6:25
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jacob Jenkins for 7 yds for a TD, (Kade Hensley KICK)
+22.4
TD · Q3 6:05
Bailey Fisher run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jay Billingsley KICK)
-8.2