Coastal Carolina

Profile vs. FBS, 2021

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.4299th
  Defense+0.1167th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense54.2%99th
  Defense40.4%66th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.3475th
  Defense+1.3037th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.3197th
  Defense+0.1051st
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.6099th
  Defense+0.1959th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense57.2%98th
  Defense46.4%60th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense45.3%99th
  Defense28.1%73rd
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.5697th
  Defense2.9559th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense12.5%90th
  Defense15.8%37th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense12.9%93rd
  Defense17.5%66th

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2021

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Coastal Carolina allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   CIT
2. W
   KU
3. W
   BUF
4. W
   MASS
5. W
   ULM
6. W
   ARST
7. L
   APP
8. W
   TROY
9. W
   GASO
10. L
    GAST
11. W
    TXST
12. W
    USA
13. W
    NIU

Bars above the line: better than expected for Coastal Carolina.

Players, 2021

1. Grayson McCallQB254 plays · +0.400 pts/play · 38th of 219 QBs
   1.90WAR1.46 to 2.38
2. Shermari JonesRB125 plays · +0.231 pts/play · 59th of 387 RBs
   0.54WAR0.41 to 0.66
3. Jaivon HeilighWR75 plays · +0.170 pts/play · 36th of 474 WRs
   0.24WAR0.14 to 0.33
4. Braydon BennettRB66 plays · +0.182 pts/play · 203rd of 387 RBs
   0.22WAR0.16 to 0.29
5. Bryce CarpenterQB63 plays · +0.185 pts/play · 173rd of 219 QBs
   0.22WAR0.05 to 0.36
6. Reese WhiteRB38 plays · +0.198 pts/play · 256th of 387 RBs
   0.14WAR0.10 to 0.18
7. Kameron BrownWR34 plays · +0.157 pts/play · 240th of 474 WRs
   0.10WAR0.06 to 0.14
8. Massimo BiscardiPK7 plays · +0.306 pts/play · 106th of 128 kickers
   0.04WAR0.03 to 0.06

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Coastal Carolina's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2021

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  416416100th of 130Roster talent: 416, 100th of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  133133103rd of 130Recruiting: 133, 103rd of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  84%84%47th of 128Returning production: 84%, 47th of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +13.2+13.225th of 130SP+ rating: +13.2, 25th of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2021

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Coastal Carolina's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 0 clear-cut ones account for 0.00 of the 0.05 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs NIUQ4 2:29 4th & 4 at NIU 46, up 6Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
2. at USAQ2 3:15 4th & 18 at USA 38, down 10Punted; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.6 pts
3. vs TXSTQ4 12:54 4th & 4 at TXST 49, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts
4. vs TXSTQ4 2:47 4th & 2 at TXST 43, up 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts
5. at ARSTQ1 1:45 4th & 2 at ARST 2, up 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts
6. at GASOQ4 3:37 4th & 12 at GASO 18, up 20Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.3 pts
7. vs TROYQ4 3:04 4th & 4 at CCU 31, up 7Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.3 pts
8. at GASOQ4 9:57 4th & 13 at GASO 33, up 20Punted; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.3 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2021

75th of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Coastal Carolina's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   CIT
2. W

   KU
3. W

   BUF
4. W

   MASS
5. W

   ULM
6. W

   ARST
7. L

   APP
8. W

   TROY
9. W

   GASO
10. L

    GAST
11. W

    TXST
12. W

    USA
13. W

    NIU

What moved it, 2021

Every game starts at Coastal Carolina's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+1.27
• Possession & field position−0.09
• Clock−0.08
• Timeouts+0.15
• Other−0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−1.35

Game by game

• CITW 52-14 vs CIT97% → 100%Before kickoff +47 · On the field +3: Scoreboard +4
• KUW 49-22 vs KU95% → 100%Before kickoff +45 · On the field +5: Scoreboard +7
• BUFW 28-25 at BUF84% → 94%Before kickoff +34 · On the field +10: Scoreboard +28, Clock +2
• MASSW 53-3 vs MASS100% → 100%Before kickoff +50 · On the field 0: Scoreboard +1
• ULMW 59-6 vs ULM98% → 100%Before kickoff +48 · On the field +2: Scoreboard +4
• ARSTW 52-20 at ARST91% → 100%Before kickoff +41 · On the field +9: Scoreboard +14
• APPL 27-30 at APP64% → 4%Before kickoff +14 · On the field −59: Scoreboard −39, Timeouts −3
• TROYW 35-28 vs TROY88% → 97%Before kickoff +38 · On the field +9: Scoreboard +16, Timeouts +1
• GASOW 28-8 at GASO88% → 100%Before kickoff +38 · On the field +11: Scoreboard +19, Clock +1
• GASTL 40-42 vs GAST80% → 87%Before kickoff +30 · On the field +7: Scoreboard +22, Possession & field position −3
• TXSTW 35-21 vs TXST95% → 99%Before kickoff +45 · On the field +4: Scoreboard +9
• USAW 27-21 at USA85% → 67%Before kickoff +35 · On the field −18: Scoreboard +23, Timeouts +16
• NIUW 47-41 vs NIU81% → 86%Before kickoff +31 · On the field +5: Scoreboard +18, Timeouts +1

Points of win probability, from Coastal Carolina's side.

Closest call

CCU 27-21 USA (2021) - Coastal Carolina dropped to a 8.4% win probability before pulling it out.