Coastal Carolina

Profile vs. FBS, 2026

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1241st
  Defense+0.1235th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense39.0%16th
  Defense46.0%13th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.3585th
  Defense+1.1187th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1045th
  Defense+0.0648th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.1942nd
  Defense+0.3122nd
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense42.5%10th
  Defense50.7%20th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense32.3%54th
  Defense31.6%33rd
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.2773rd
  Defense3.1823rd
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense17.2%53rd
  Defense15.3%20th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense19.1%5th
  Defense15.9%51st

Percentiles among the 138 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2026

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Coastal Carolina allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   WVU
2. W
   FOR
3. L
   DEL
4. L
   LIB
5. L
   GASO
6. W
   MRSH

Bars above the line: better than expected for Coastal Carolina.

Players, 2026

1. Deuce BaileyQB163 plays · +0.080 pts/play · 80th of 192 QBs
   0.25WAR0.01 to 0.51
2. Dominic KnicelyRB56 plays · +0.122 pts/play · 44th of 320 RBs
   0.13WAR0.09 to 0.17
3. Tristian GardnerWR20 plays · +0.244 pts/play · 49th of 364 WRs
   0.09WAR0.06 to 0.12
4. Clayton Coppock Jr.WR19 plays · +0.177 pts/play · 110th of 364 WRs
   0.06WAR0.03 to 0.09
5. Jevon EdwardsRB34 plays · +0.091 pts/play · 170th of 320 RBs
   0.06WAR0.03 to 0.08
6. Karmello EnglishWR20 plays · +0.059 pts/play · 262nd of 364 WRs
   0.02WAR0.00 to 0.05
7. Robby WashingtonWR12 plays · +0.098 pts/play · 262nd of 364 WRs
   0.02WAR0.01 to 0.04
8. Zach CourtneyTE3 plays · +0.083 pts/play · 103rd of 164 TEs
   0.00WAR0.00 to 0.01

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Coastal Carolina's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2026

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  574574105th of 138Roster talent: 574, 105th of 138 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  151151100th of 138Recruiting: 151, 100th of 138 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  15%15%107th of 136Returning production: 15%, 107th of 136 in FBS
• SP+ rating so far

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −11.0−11.0110th of 138SP+ rating so far: −11.0, 110th of 138 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 138 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion so far

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2026

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Coastal Carolina's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 0 clear-cut ones account for 0.00 of the 0.01 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs LIBQ4 1:59 4th & 16 at CCU 40, down 10Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.3 pts
2. vs LIBQ4 3:19 4th & 8 at CCU 30, down 10Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.2 pts
3. vs GASOQ2 8:38 4th & 7 at GASO 34, down 10Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.2 pts
4. vs FORQ2 2:31 4th & 8 at FOR 41, up 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
5. vs GASOQ4 3:41 4th & 8 at CCU 27, down 20Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.1 pts
6. vs FORQ2 1:15 4th & 4 at FOR 49, up 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
7. vs GASOQ4 7:09 4th & 7 at CCU 47, down 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
8. vs FORQ4 4:22 4th & 3 at CCU 48, up 38Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2026

98th of 138 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Coastal Carolina's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   WVU
2. W

   FOR
3. L

   DEL
4. L

   LIB
5. L

   GASO
6. W

   MRSH

What moved it, 2026

Every game starts at Coastal Carolina's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−0.73
• Clock−0.07
• Timeouts+0.04
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.31

Game by game

• WVUL 24-31 at WVU8% → 2%Before kickoff −42 · On the field −7: Scoreboard −13
• FORW 45-7 vs FOR98% → 100%Before kickoff +48 · On the field +1: Scoreboard +3
• DELL 14-22 at DEL28% → 3%Before kickoff −22 · On the field −26: Scoreboard −28, Timeouts −2
• LIBL 17-34 vs LIB41% → 1%Before kickoff −9 · On the field −40: Scoreboard −44, Clock −5
• GASOL 24-31 vs GASO45% → 1%Before kickoff −5 · On the field −44: Scoreboard −49, Clock −4
• MRSHW 27-21 at MRSH29% → 98%Before kickoff −21 · On the field +68: Scoreboard +57, Clock +2

Points of win probability, from Coastal Carolina's side.

Closest call

CCU 27-21 USA (2021) - Coastal Carolina dropped to a 8.4% win probability before pulling it out.