South Carolina State
- SRS
- −26.5 (#180)
Expected points
YardLine's expected-points model values every snap by what a drive from that spot is worth on average, so a drive can be judged against where it started. How it works →
Drives vs. expectation, 2025
Points over expected per drive, from where each drive started.
Per drive against an average FBS opponent, neutral field.
Points over expected per trip inside the opponent's 40.
Average expected points where drives started.
Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what South Carolina State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season.
Game by game
Bars above the line: better than expected for South Carolina State.
Fourth downs
YardLine's fourth-down model values going for it, kicking and punting on every real fourth down, so each call can be checked against the numbers. How it works →
Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2025
Calls that matched the option with the best modeled win probability.
Summed over every call that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for it when going beat every other option by a point or more.
Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than South Carolina State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 0 clear-cut ones account for 0.00 of the 0.00 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right.
Costliest calls against the numbers
- at SCQ2 11:42 4th & 2 at SC 46, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
- at USFQ2 2:59 4th & 5 at USF 43, down 21Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
- at SCQ1 1:32 4th & 3 at SC 3, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
- at SCQ4 4:03 4th & 3 at SC 18, down 28Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.1 pts
- at SCQ2 1:44 4th & 2 at SCST 33, down 11Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
Every call this season (21)
- Q1 11:374th & 9 at SC 47, tied · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 6:254th & 13 at SCST 49, tied · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 1:324th & 3 at SC 3, tied · Kicked a field goalClose call
- Q2 11:424th & 2 at SC 46, up 3 · PuntedClose call
- Q2 5:014th & 16 at SCST 21, up 3 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 3:074th & 12 at SCST 23, down 4 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 1:444th & 2 at SCST 33, down 11 · PuntedClose call
- Q3 7:414th & 7 at SC 47, down 21 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 4:304th & 15 at SCST 20, down 28 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 4:034th & 3 at SC 18, down 28 · Went for itClose call
- Q1 4:514th & 23 at SCST 28, down 7 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 1:224th & 12 at SCST 43, down 7 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 8:414th & 10 at SCST 47, down 14 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 2:594th & 5 at USF 43, down 21 · PuntedClose call
- Q3 12:574th & 15 at SCST 20, down 21 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 9:164th & 17 at SCST 32, down 28 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 7:364th & 6 at SCST 29, down 35 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 5:364th & 10 at SCST 25, down 42 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 12:424th & 1 at USF 5, down 49 · Went for itAgreed
- Q4 10:444th & 2 at USF 2, down 49 · Went for itAgreed
- Q4 4:504th & 2 at SCST 33, down 49 · PuntedAgreed
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
Tries that matched the option with the better modeled win probability.
Summed over every try that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for two when it beat kicking by a point or more.
Win probability
YardLine's model estimates each team's chance of winning before kickoff and again after every play, from the score, clock, down, distance and field position. How it works →
Record vs. expectation, 2025
Expected wins adds up South Carolina State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.
What moved it, 2025
Every game starts at South Carolina State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →
- Scoreboard−0.06
- Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.03
Game by game
- SCL 10-38 at SC1% → 0%Before kickoff −49 · On the field −1: Scoreboard −2
- USFL 14-63 at USF2% → 0%Before kickoff −48 · On the field −2: Scoreboard −3
Points of win probability, from South Carolina State's side.
Season arc, 2025
Every completed game this season, in order - each tile is South Carolina State's own win-probability curve.
Biggest swings of 2025
The largest single-play change in South Carolina State's win probability this season - one snap that moved the outcome the most.
Stolen wins
South Carolina State's own lowest win probability at any point in a game it went on to win, across the whole archive - the deepest holes it climbed out of.
Let it slip
South Carolina State's own highest win probability at any point in a game it went on to lose, across the whole archive - the biggest leads it didn't hold.
Stock & rivalries
Stock
South Carolina State's leaguewide Elo rating, tracked like a stock price - built from game results and margins, not the model's own win-probability predictions.
Not enough game history yet to compute a stock price.
Series & rivalries
South Carolina State's most-played opponents across the whole archive - open one for the full head-to-head history.