South Carolina State
Expected points
YardLine's expected-points model values every snap by what a drive from that spot is worth on average, so a drive can be judged against where it started. How it works →
Drives vs. expectation, 2016
Points over expected per drive, from where each drive started.
Per drive against an average FBS opponent, neutral field.
Points over expected per trip inside the opponent's 40.
Average expected points where drives started.
Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what South Carolina State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season.
Game by game
Bars above the line: better than expected for South Carolina State.
Fourth downs
YardLine's fourth-down model values going for it, kicking and punting on every real fourth down, so each call can be checked against the numbers. How it works →
Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2016
Calls that matched the option with the best modeled win probability.
Summed over every call that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for it when going beat every other option by a point or more.
Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than South Carolina State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 0 clear-cut ones account for 0.00 of the 0.00 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right.
Costliest calls against the numbers
- at LTQ2 8:48 4th & 2 at SCST 29, down 12Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
- at CLEMQ2 0:09 4th & 9 at CLEM 33, down 45Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.1 pts
- at LTQ4 14:31 4th & 7 at LT 30, down 36Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)<0.1 pts
- at UCFQ4 5:36 4th & 3 at SCST 38, down 38Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
- at UCFQ4 3:22 4th & 9 at UCF 40, down 38Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
- at CLEMQ4 11:43 4th & 5 at SCST 48, down 59Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
Every call this season (33)
- Q1 15:004th & 7 at SCST 20, tied · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 11:194th & 14 at UCF 40, down 3 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 6:514th & 17 at SCST 12, down 3 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 3:364th & 14 at midfield, down 6 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 0:544th & 14 at SCST 35, down 18 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 8:544th & 5 at UCF 23, down 18 · Kicked a field goalAgreed
- Q3 4:554th & 26 at SCST 29, down 25 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 15:004th & 5 at SCST 30, down 31 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 12:184th & 8 at SCST 27, down 38 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 8:434th & 5 at SCST 6, down 38 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 5:364th & 3 at SCST 38, down 38 · PuntedClose call
- Q4 3:224th & 9 at UCF 40, down 38 · PuntedClose call
- Q1 15:004th & 6 at LT 45, tied · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 7:064th & 6 at SCST 29, down 12 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 2:534th & 3 at SCST 12, down 12 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 8:484th & 2 at SCST 29, down 12 · PuntedClose call
- Q2 1:574th & 9 at LT 12, down 12 · Kicked a field goalAgreed
- Q3 13:184th & 6 at SCST 27, down 12 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 8:584th & 2 at SCST 37, down 19 · Went for itAgreed
- Q3 8:354th & 9 at SCST 38, down 26 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 4:164th & 5 at SCST 30, down 29 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 1:404th & 8 at SCST 33, down 29 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 14:314th & 7 at LT 30, down 36 · Went for itClose call
- Q1 4:364th & 8 at SCST 27, down 21 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 14:464th & 15 at SCST 20, down 31 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 12:074th & 7 at SCST 28, down 38 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 6:434th & 6 at SCST 28, down 45 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 0:094th & 9 at CLEM 33, down 45 · Went for itClose call
- Q3 10:594th & 3 at SCST 32, down 45 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 3:284th & 11 at SCST 37, down 52 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 11:434th & 5 at SCST 48, down 59 · PuntedClose call
- Q4 6:574th & 16 at SCST 27, down 59 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 1:284th & 5 at midfield, down 59 · PuntedAgreed
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
Tries that matched the option with the better modeled win probability.
Summed over every try that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for two when it beat kicking by a point or more.
Win probability
YardLine's model estimates each team's chance of winning before kickoff and again after every play, from the score, clock, down, distance and field position. How it works →
Record vs. expectation, 2016
Expected wins adds up South Carolina State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.
What moved it, 2016
Every game starts at South Carolina State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →
- Scoreboard−0.10
- Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.04
Game by game
- UCFL 0-38 at UCF4% → 0%Before kickoff −46 · On the field −4: Scoreboard −6
- LTL 24-53 at LT2% → 0%Before kickoff −48 · On the field −2: Scoreboard −4
- CLEML 0-59 at CLEM0% → 0%Before kickoff −50 · On the field 0: Scoreboard −1
Points of win probability, from South Carolina State's side.
Season arc, 2016
Every completed game this season, in order - each tile is South Carolina State's own win-probability curve.
Biggest swings of 2016
The largest single-play change in South Carolina State's win probability this season - one snap that moved the outcome the most.
Stolen wins
South Carolina State's own lowest win probability at any point in a game it went on to win, across the whole archive - the deepest holes it climbed out of.
Let it slip
South Carolina State's own highest win probability at any point in a game it went on to lose, across the whole archive - the biggest leads it didn't hold.
Stock & rivalries
Stock
South Carolina State's leaguewide Elo rating, tracked like a stock price - built from game results and margins, not the model's own win-probability predictions.
Not enough game history yet to compute a stock price.
Series & rivalries
South Carolina State's most-played opponents across the whole archive - open one for the full head-to-head history.