Try the model
SCST

South Carolina State 35 at New Mexico State 43

NMSU
2021 · Week 3 · Sep 18, 2021 · Aggie Memorial Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NMSU
modelNMSU aheadSCST aheadconfidence bandkey playNMSU scoreSCST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:58 · Corey Fields Jr. pass intercepted return for no gain to the SCSt 16
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:02: Juwaun Price run for 8 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK) — NMSU win probability +11.0 pts (now 85%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:47: Dino Maldonado pass complete to Jared Wyatt for 30 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK) — NMSU win probability +9.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:00: Corey Fields Jr. pass complete to Richard Bailey for 37 yds for a TD, (Dyson Roberts KICK) — SCST win probability +10.3 pts (now 20%) (top driver: SCST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:43: Dino Maldonado pass complete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda for 41 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK) — NMSU win probability +12.8 pts (now 93%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:35: Kendrell Flowers 20 Yd pass from Corey Fields Jr. (Corey Fields Jr. Pass to Yancy Washington for Two-Point Conversion) — SCST win probability +10.3 pts (now 15%) (top driver: SCST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NMSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6SCST made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 9:04SCST 4th & 8 at SCST 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.8%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.9%
    average punt
  2. Q2 14:53SCST 4th & 4 at NMSU 37, down 15
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    31.8%−1.0
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    31.6%−1.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 2:00SCST 4th & 5 at NMSU 37, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.3%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    9.8%−0.5
    40% to make
    Punt
    9.4%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:39SCST 4th & 4 at SCST 46, down 23
    Close callPunted · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:01NMSU 4th & 3 at SCST 31, up 23
    Close callKicked a field goal · 91.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.7%−0.4
    54% to make
    Punt
    91.5%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q3 11:42SCST 4th & 9 at NMSU 21, down 30
    Close callWent for it · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    1.9%
    74% to make
    Punt
    1.5%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q3 2:08NMSU 4th & 15 at NMSU 26, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%−0.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.5%
    average punt
  8. Q4 14:21NMSU 4th & 6 at SCST 37, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    98.0%−0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    98.0%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q4 8:47NMSU 4th & 7 at NMSU 46, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.7%
    average punt
  10. Q4 5:59SCST 4th & 22 at SCST 31, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%−0.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.7%
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:23NMSU 4th & 19 at NMSU 25, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.2%−0.9
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:09NMSU 4th & 6 at SCST 46, up 6
    Close callPunted · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    93.4%−0.6
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.8%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NMSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6SCST made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 10:36NMSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:43NMSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    69.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    69.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:02NMSU Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:31SCST Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    20.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:47NMSU Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:00SCST Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 1:43NMSU Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 11:42NMSU Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 4:07SCST Touchdown, down 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 10:49SCST Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 1:35SCST Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    5.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    4.7%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NMSUDrive 1TD
10 plays · 81 yds · 4:2062% → 64%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+26
61.9%
Dino Maldonado pass complete to Juwaun Price for 26 yds to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
61.9%
MALDONADO, Dino pass to the left complete for 9 yards to WHITFORD, Thomaz caught at the NMS47 and advanced to the SCS46 (EVANS, Jaylen). PENALTY NMS Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on PHARRIS, Carson enforced 5 yards from the NMS45 to the NMS40 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 15
OWN 40
+1
61.9%
Juwaun Price run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 14
OWN 41
+9
61.9%
Dino Maldonado pass complete to Robert Downs III for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 14:56
3RD & 5
50
+7
61.9%
Dino Maldonado pass complete to O'Maury Samuels for 7 yds to the SCSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
61.9%
O'Maury Samuels run for 2 yds to the SCSt 41Similar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+1
61.9%
Alex Escobar run for 1 yd to the SCSt 40Similar
Q1 14:56
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+9
61.9%
O'Maury Samuels run for 9 yds to the SCSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+17
61.9%
Dino Maldonado pass complete to Thomaz Whitford for 17 yds to the SCSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
63.9%
Juwaun Price run for 14 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCSTDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3237% → 36%
Q1 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
63.2%
Corey Fields Jr. pass complete to Richard Bailey for a loss of 2 yards to the SCSt 23Similar
Q1 10:36
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
63.3%
Corey Fields Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:36
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+4
63.5%
Corey Fields Jr. pass complete to Kendrell Flowers for 4 yds to the SCSt 27Similar
Q1 9:04
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
64.2%
Dyson Roberts punt for 58 yds, downed at the NMxSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 3TD
11 plays · 85 yds · 5:2164% → 71%
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
64.0%
Dino Maldonado run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+8
64.0%
Dino Maldonado pass complete to Jared Wyatt for 8 yds to the NMxSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+20
64.1%
Dino Maldonado pass complete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda for 20 yds to the NMxSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
64.5%
Juwaun Price run for no gain to the NMxSt 48Similar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
64.4%
Dino Maldonado pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:04
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+25
64.1%
Dino Maldonado pass complete to Juwaun Price for 25 yds to the SCSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+13
64.7%
Dino Maldonado pass complete to Thomaz Whitford for 13 yds to the SCSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
64.7%
O'Maury Samuels run for 6 yds to the SCSt 8Similar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 4
OPP 8
0
64.7%
O'Maury Samuels run for no gain to the SCSt 8Similar
Q1 9:04
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+5
64.5%
Dino Maldonado pass complete to Cole Harrity for 5 yds to the SCSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
71.3%
O'Maury Samuels run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCSTDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 41 yds · 3:4630% → 32%
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
69.8%
Kendrell Flowers run for 5 yds to the SCSt 27Similar
Q1 3:39
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+5
69.7%
Corey Fields Jr. run for 5 yds to the SCSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
69.7%
Kendrell Flowers run for 1 yd to the SCSt 33Similar
Q1 3:39
2ND & 9
OWN 33
0
69.7%
Corey Fields Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:39
3RD & 9
OWN 33
+24
69.9%
Corey Fields Jr. pass complete to Yancy Washington for 24 yds to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
69.2%
Kendrell Flowers run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q1 3:39
2ND & 8
OPP 41
-1
69.1%
Corey Fields Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 9
OPP 42
+5
68.6%
Corey Fields Jr. pass complete to Will Vereen for 5 yds to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 4
OPP 37
0
68.3%
Dyson Roberts punt for 37 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 5TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:5173% → 85%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
73.0%
Dino Maldonado pass complete to Robert Downs III for 15 yds to the NMxSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
73.1%
Juwaun Price run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+12
73.6%
Dino Maldonado pass complete to O'Maury Samuels for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
50
+4
73.8%
O'Maury Samuels run for 4 yds to the SCSt 46Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+15
73.8%
S CAROLINA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Aaron Smith) to the SCSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+11
73.9%
Dino Maldonado run for 11 yds to the SCSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
84.9%
Juwaun Price run for 8 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCSTDrive 6TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:3117% → 25%
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
83.1%
Kendrell Flowers run for no gain to the SCSt 25Similar
Q2 12:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
83.3%
Corey Fields Jr. pass complete to Will Vereen for 15 yds to the SCSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
82.6%
Corey Fields Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:02
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+8
82.9%
Kendrell Flowers run for 8 yds to the SCSt 48Similar
Q2 12:02
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+3
82.4%
Corey Fields Jr. pass complete to Richard Bailey for 3 yds to the NMxSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-10
82.3%
FLOWERS, Kendrell rush to the left for a gain of 4 yards to the NMS45 (DUMAS, Syrus). PENALTY SCS Holding on JOHNSON, Cam enforced 10 yards from the NMS49 to the SCS41 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:02
1ST & 20
OWN 41
+27
83.2%
Corey Fields Jr. pass complete to Jaelyn Perry for 27 yds to the NMxSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
82.1%
Donte Anthony run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q2 12:02
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+6
81.9%
Donte Anthony run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
81.9%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the NMxSt 15Similar
Q2 7:31
1ST & 5
OPP 15
+15
75.1%
Kendrell Flowers 15 Yd Run (Dyson Roberts PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:4481% → 90%
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
80.5%
O'Maury Samuels run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
80.4%
Dino Maldonado pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:31
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+15
79.9%
Dino Maldonado pass complete to Robert Downs III for 15 yds to the NMxSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
81.0%
Juwaun Price run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+4
81.1%
Juwaun Price run for 4 yds to the SCSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
81.1%
Dino Maldonado pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+17
81.0%
Dino Maldonado pass complete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda for 17 yds to the SCSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
90.1%
Dino Maldonado pass complete to Jared Wyatt for 30 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCSTDrive 8TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:4711% → 20%
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
88.6%
Corey Fields Jr. pass complete to Will Vereen for 10 yds to the SCSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
88.2%
Kendrell Flowers run for 3 yds to the SCSt 38Similar
Q2 4:47
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+20
88.1%
Corey Fields Jr. pass complete to Will Vereen for 20 yds to the NMxSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
87.7%
Kendrell Flowers run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q2 4:47
2ND & 5
OPP 37
0
87.8%
Corey Fields Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:08
3RD & 5
OPP 37
0
90.0%
Corey Fields Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:00
4TH & 5
OPP 37
+37
79.9%
Corey Fields Jr. pass complete to Richard Bailey for 37 yds for a TD, (Dyson Roberts KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9TD
1 play · 41 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
92.7%
Dino Maldonado pass complete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda for 41 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCSTDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:0410% → 9%
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
90.5%
Corey Fields Jr. pass complete to Kendrell Flowers for 8 yds to the SCSt 33Similar
Q2 1:43
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
89.9%
Corey Fields Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:43
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+7
90.1%
Corey Fields Jr. pass complete to Hezekiah Massey for 7 yds to the SCSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
90.0%
Corey Fields Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:43
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+6
90.1%
Corey Fields Jr. pass complete to Will Vereen for 6 yds to the SCSt 46Similar
Q2 1:43
3RD & 4
OWN 46
0
89.9%
Corey Fields Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:39
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
90.6%
Dyson Roberts punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 11MISSED FG
7 plays · 49 yds · 0:3893% → 92%
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+20
92.8%
Juwaun Price run for 20 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+22
93.0%
Dino Maldonado pass complete to Andre Bodison for 22 yds to the SCSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
93.5%
Juwaun Price run for a loss of 1 yard to the SCSt 39Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 11
OPP 39
+8
93.1%
Dino Maldonado run for 8 yds to the SCSt 31Similar
Q2 0:01
4TH & 3
OPP 31
+49
92.3%
Ethan Albertson 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCSTDrive 13INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:269% → 8%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.4%
Corey Fields Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
91.4%
Corey Fields Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:34
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
91.7%
Corey Fields Jr. pass intercepted return for no gain to the SCSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 14TD
6 plays · 14 yds · 2:5293% → 99%
Q3 14:34
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-4
92.8%
O'Maury Samuels run for a loss of 4 yards to the SCSt 18Similar
Q3 14:34
2ND & 14
OPP 18
+7
92.8%
Dino Maldonado pass complete to Andre Bodison for 7 yds to the SCSt 11Similar
Q3 14:34
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+8
92.7%
Dino Maldonado run for 8 yds to the SCSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
92.8%
O'Maury Samuels run for 2 yds to the SCSt 1Similar
Q3 14:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
92.8%
O'Maury Samuels run for no gain to the SCSt 1Similar
Q3 11:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.5%
Dino Maldonado pass complete to Eric Marsh for 1 yd for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCSTDrive 15TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 7:351% → 4%
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
98.8%
Kendrell Flowers run for a loss of 1 yard to the SCSt 24Similar
Q3 11:42
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+3
98.7%
Jacory Benson run for 3 yds to the SCSt 27Similar
Q3 11:42
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+8
98.8%
Corey Fields Jr. run for 8 yds to the SCSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+19
98.7%
Kendrell Flowers run for 19 yds to the NMxSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-3
98.7%
Kendrell Flowers run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q3 11:42
2ND & 13
OPP 49
+27
98.7%
Corey Fields Jr. pass complete to Rakim White for 27 yds to the NMxSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
98.5%
Jacory Benson run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q3 11:42
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+3
98.5%
Corey Fields Jr. pass complete to Yancy Washington for 3 yds to the NMxSt 17Similar
Q3 11:42
3RD & 5
OPP 17
-5
98.5%
S CAROLINA ST Penalty, False Start (Kendrell Flowers) to the NMxSt 22Similar
Q3 11:42
3RD & 10
OPP 22
+1
98.6%
Corey Fields Jr. run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 21Similar
Q3 11:42
4TH & 9
OPP 21
+12
98.1%
Corey Fields Jr. pass complete to Kendrell Flowers for 12 yds to the NMxSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
98.8%
Kendrell Flowers run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 6Similar
Q3 4:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
96.2%
Corey Fields Jr. pass complete to Hezekiah Massey for 6 yds for a TD, (Dyson Roberts KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:5197% → 97%
Q3 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
96.7%
Dino Maldonado pass complete to O'Maury Samuels for 5 yds to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q3 3:59
2ND & 5
OWN 36
0
96.8%
O'Maury Samuels run for no gain to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q3 3:59
3RD & 5
OWN 36
0
96.8%
Dino Maldonado sacked by Octaveon Minter and Shaeem Haltiwanger for 0 yards to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q3 2:08
4TH & 15
OWN 26
0
97.2%
Josh Carlson punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCSTDrive 17INT
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:413% → 3%
Q3 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
97.3%
Corey Fields Jr. pass complete to Kendrell Flowers for 4 yds to the SCSt 33Similar
Q3 1:27
2ND & 6
OWN 33
0
97.4%
Corey Fields Jr. pass intercepted Michael Bowe Jr. return for no gain to the SCSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 18DOWNS
4 plays · 4 yds · 2:0698% → 98%
Q3 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
97.8%
Dino Maldonado pass complete to Juwaun Price for 2 yds to the SCSt 39Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+2
98.2%
Juwaun Price run for 2 yds to the SCSt 37Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 37
0
98.1%
Dino Maldonado pass complete to O'Maury Samuels for no gain to the SCSt 37Similar
Q4 14:21
4TH & 6
OPP 37
0
98.1%
Dino Maldonado pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCSTDrive 19TD
9 plays · 63 yds · 3:322% → 8%
Q4 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
98.1%
FLOWERS, Kendrell rush up the middle for a loss of 3 yards to the SCS34 (BISHOP, Garrett). PENALTY NMS Face mask on BISHOP, Garrett enforced 15 yards from the SCS37 to the NMS48 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
98.0%
Kendrell Flowers run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q4 14:21
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+15
98.0%
Corey Fields Jr. pass complete to Will Vereen for 15 yds to the NMxSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
97.8%
Donte Anthony run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q4 14:21
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+5
97.8%
Donte Anthony run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
97.8%
Corey Fields Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:21
2ND & 10
OPP 21
-2
97.8%
Corey Fields Jr. pass complete to Donte Anthony for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q4 14:21
3RD & 12
OPP 23
+5
98.0%
FIELDS,JR., Corey pass to the right incomplete intended for VEREEN, Will thrown to the NMS0. PENALTY NMS Offsides on BOWE JR., Michael enforced 5 yards from the NMS23 to the NMS18 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:49
3RD & 7
OPP 18
+18
92.4%
Corey Fields Jr. pass complete to Will Vereen for 18 yds for a TD, (Dyson Roberts KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:5695% → 96%
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
95.4%
Dino Maldonado pass complete to Robert Downs III for 9 yds to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q4 10:43
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+1
95.6%
Juwaun Price run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
95.6%
Dino Maldonado pass complete to Robert Downs III for 3 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q4 10:43
2ND & 7
OWN 46
0
95.6%
Dino Maldonado pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:43
3RD & 7
OWN 46
0
95.5%
Dino Maldonado pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:47
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
95.6%
Josh Carlson punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCSTDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 2:485% → 3%
Q4 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-4
94.9%
Jacory Benson run for a loss of 4 yards to the SCSt 6Similar
Q4 8:47
2ND & 14
OWN 6
+4
95.1%
Corey Fields Jr. pass complete to Richard Bailey for 4 yds to the SCSt 10Similar
Q4 8:47
3RD & 10
OWN 10
+33
95.0%
Corey Fields Jr. pass complete to Will Vereen for 33 yds to the SCSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
94.3%
Corey Fields Jr. sacked by Michael Bowe Jr. and Donavan King for 0 yards to the SCSt 31Similar
Q4 8:47
2ND & 22
OWN 31
0
94.9%
Corey Fields Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:47
3RD & 22
OWN 31
0
95.0%
Corey Fields Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:59
4TH & 22
OWN 31
0
96.0%
Dyson Roberts punt for 35 ydsSimilar
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-10
96.7%
MALDONADO, Dino scrambles up the middle for a gain of 5 yards to the NMS39, End of Play. PENALTY NMS Holding on OMERHI, Doro enforced 10 yards from the NMS34 to the NMS24 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 1:3697% → 97%
Q4 5:59
1ST & 20
OWN 24
0
96.5%
Dino Maldonado pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 20
OWN 24
+1
96.5%
Juwaun Price run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q4 5:59
3RD & 19
OWN 25
0
96.5%
Dino Maldonado pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:23
4TH & 19
OWN 25
0
97.0%
Josh Carlson punt for 45 yds, downed at the SCSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCSTDrive 23TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 2:483% → 15%
Q4 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-4
96.6%
Corey Fields Jr. pass complete to Will Vereen for a loss of 4 yards to the SCSt 26Similar
Q4 4:23
2ND & 14
OWN 26
0
96.9%
Corey Fields Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:23
3RD & 14
OWN 26
+15
97.0%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Lazarus Williams) to the SCSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
96.5%
Corey Fields Jr. pass complete to Richard Bailey for 3 yds to the SCSt 39Similar
Q4 4:23
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+14
96.5%
Corey Fields Jr. pass complete to Juan Moody for 14 yds to the NMxSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+23
96.4%
Corey Fields Jr. pass complete to Juan Moody for 23 yds to the NMxSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
95.7%
Corey Fields Jr. pass complete to Rakim White for 4 yds to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q4 1:35
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+20
85.4%
Kendrell Flowers 20 Yd pass from Corey Fields Jr. (Corey Fields Jr. Pass to Yancy Washington for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:1895% → 95%
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
50
+1
95.0%
Juwaun Price run for 1 yd to the SCSt 49Similar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 9
OPP 49
0
95.4%
O'Maury Samuels run for no gain to the SCSt 49Similar
Q4 1:18
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+3
95.6%
O'Maury Samuels run for 3 yds to the SCSt 46Similar
Q4 1:09
4TH & 6
OPP 46
0
95.2%
Josh Carlson punt for 43 yds, downed at the SCSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCSTDrive 25INT
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:119% → 10%
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+8
91.0%
Corey Fields Jr. pass complete to Richard Bailey for 8 yds to the SCSt 11Similar
Q4 0:58
2ND & 2
OWN 11
0
90.4%
Corey Fields Jr. pass intercepted return for no gain to the SCSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:43
Dino Maldonado pass complete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda for 41 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK)
+12.8
TD · Q2 12:02
Juwaun Price run for 8 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK)
+11
TD · Q2 2:00
Corey Fields Jr. pass complete to Richard Bailey for 37 yds for a TD, (Dyson Roberts KICK)
-10.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com