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TXST

Texas State 21 at Coastal Carolina 35

CCU
2021 · Week 12 · Nov 20, 2021 · Brooks Stadium (SC)
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Win probability · CCU
modelCCU aheadTXST aheadconfidence bandkey playCCU scoreTXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:54 · Charles Ouverson punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSt 16
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+45.0+22.50−22.5−45.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 122Pregame prior+14.0Home team on offense+14.2Score differential+2.8Garbage-time factor+8.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:00: Calvin Hill run for 54 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK) — TXST win probability +7.9 pts (now 19%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:21: Grayson McCall pass complete to Kameron Brown for 52 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK) — CCU win probability +5.6 pts (now 90%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:48: Tyler Vitt pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 38 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK) — TXST win probability +11.2 pts (now 24%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:45: Grayson McCall pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 21 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK) — CCU win probability +6.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:23: Grayson McCall pass complete to Tyson Mobley for 39 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK) — CCU win probability +5.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CCU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5TXST made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 12:41CCU 4th & 2 at CCU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.1%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:16TXST 4th & 12 at TXST 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.4%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:09TXST 4th & 3 at TXST 26, down 7
    Close callPunted · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:04CCU 4th & 1 at TXST 1, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    89.3%−0.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    87.4%−2.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:05TXST 4th & 10 at TXST 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.6%−0.9
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:23CCU 4th & 3 at TXST 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.3%−0.3
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.6%
    54% to make
    Punt
    87.5%−1.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:53TXST 4th & 13 at TXST 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%−1.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 2:12TXST 4th & 9 at TXST 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.1%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.0%
    average punt
  9. Q4 12:54CCU 4th & 4 at TXST 49, up 7
    Close callPunted · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.7%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:22TXST 4th & 3 at TXST 33, down 7
    Close callPunted · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.4%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:06TXST 4th & 8 at TXST 28, down 14
    Close callPunted · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.3%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:47CCU 4th & 2 at TXST 43, up 14
    Close callPunted · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    97.1%−0.5
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.2%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:27TXST 4th & 1 at TXST 40, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.1%−1.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:11TXST 4th & 10 at CCU 26, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.9%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    3.2%
    64% to make
    Punt
    1.7%−1.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CCU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5TXST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 3:57CCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:27CCU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:46TXST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:00TXST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:21CCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:48TXST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:45CCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:23CCU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.9%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CCUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 2:1995% → 95%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
95.0%
Shermari Jones run for 5 yds to the CCaro 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
95.0%
Braydon Bennett run for 7 yds to the CCaro 23Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-5
95.0%
PENALTY CCU False Start (Lampkin,Willie) 5 yards from CCU23 to CCU18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+15
95.0%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 15 yds to the CCaro 33Similar
Q1 12:41
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
94.6%
Charles Ouverson punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 2:255% → 6%
Q1 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+17
94.6%
Ashtyn Hawkins run for 17 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
94.5%
Calvin Hill run for 1 yd to the TexSt 39Similar
Q1 12:41
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+3
94.6%
Calvin Hill run for 3 yds to the TexSt 42Similar
Q1 12:41
3RD & 8
OWN 42
-4
94.6%
Tyler Vitt sacked by C.J. Brewer for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSt 38Similar
Q1 10:16
4TH & 12
OWN 38
0
94.1%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CCaro 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 3TD
12 plays · 83 yds · 6:1994% → 94%
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
94.0%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 8 yds to the CCaro 25Similar
Q1 10:16
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+7
94.0%
Shermari Jones run for 7 yds to the CCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+14
94.0%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 14 yds to the CCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
94.1%
Shermari Jones run for 5 yds to the TexSt 49Similar
Q1 10:16
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+11
94.2%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 11 yds to the TexSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
94.2%
CJ Beasley run for 1 yd to the TexSt 37Similar
Q1 10:16
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+10
94.2%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 10 yds to the TexSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
94.2%
Grayson McCall run for 4 yds to the TexSt 23Similar
Q1 10:16
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+3
94.2%
Shermari Jones run for 3 yds to the TexSt 20Similar
Q1 10:16
3RD & 3
OPP 20
+3
94.1%
Shermari Jones run for 3 yds to the TexSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
94.2%
Shermari Jones run for 2 yds to the TexSt 19Similar
Q1 3:57
2ND & 12
OPP 19
+19
93.7%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Kameron Brown for 19 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:427% → 7%
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
93.4%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Rontavious GrovesSimilar
Q1 3:51
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
93.4%
Jahmyl Jeter run for no gain to the TexSt 19Similar
Q1 3:51
3RD & 10
OWN 19
+7
93.5%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 7 yds to the TexSt 26Similar
Q1 2:09
4TH & 3
OWN 26
0
93.2%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 44 yds , Jaivon Heiligh returns for no gain to the CCaro 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 5DOWNS
15 plays · 69 yds · 8:0593% → 92%
Q1 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
93.1%
Shermari Jones run for 6 yds to the CCaro 36Similar
Q1 2:09
2ND & 4
OWN 36
-7
93.3%
Grayson McCall sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the CCaro 29Similar
Q1 2:09
3RD & 11
OWN 29
+15
92.9%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 15 yds to the CCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
93.0%
Shermari Jones run for 1 yd to the CCaro 45Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+10
93.0%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Kameron Brown for 10 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
93.1%
Braydon Bennett run for 2 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+7
93.0%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 7 yds to the TexSt 36Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+13
92.9%
Grayson McCall run for 13 yds to the TexSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+10
93.1%
Grayson McCall run for 10 yds to the TexSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
93.1%
Shermari Jones run for 5 yds to the TexSt 8Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+6
93.1%
Braydon Bennett run for 6 yds to the TexSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
93.1%
Shermari Jones run for 2 yds to the TexSt 4Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
93.1%
Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Jaivon HeilighSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
92.9%
Grayson McCall run for 3 yds to the TexSt 1Similar
Q2 9:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
91.6%
Shermari Jones run for no gain to the TexSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:599% → 8%
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
91.5%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Marcell Barbee for no gain to the TexSt 1Similar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 10
OWN 1
0
91.5%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Trevis Graham Jr.Similar
Q2 9:04
3RD & 10
OWN 1
0
91.8%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Marcell BarbeeSimilar
Q2 8:05
4TH & 10
OWN 1
+12
91.9%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 39 yds , Jaivon Heiligh returns for 12 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 7TD
5 plays · 28 yds · 1:3892% → 94%
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
92.2%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 7 yds to the TexSt 21Similar
Q2 8:05
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+11
92.2%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 11 yds to the TexSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
92.2%
Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Jaivon HeilighSimilar
Q2 8:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
92.2%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 5 yds to the TexSt 5Similar
Q2 6:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
94.0%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 5 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 8TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:417% → 12%
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
93.5%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 1 yd to the TexSt 26Similar
Q2 6:27
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
93.5%
Tyler Vitt run for 10 yds to the TexSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
93.4%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 7 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
Q2 6:27
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+13
93.2%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 13 yds to the CCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
93.1%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 1 yd to the CCaro 43Similar
Q2 6:27
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+6
93.1%
Tyler Vitt run for 6 yds to the CCaro 37Similar
Q2 6:27
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+5
93.0%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 5 yds to the CCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+28
92.8%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 28 yds to the CCaro 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
92.7%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 3 yds to the CCaro 1Similar
Q2 1:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
87.6%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 1 yd for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 9MISSED FG
11 plays · 43 yds · 1:1790% → 90%
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
90.2%
Grayson McCall run for 7 yds to the CCaro 33Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+6
90.5%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 6 yds to the CCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
90.6%
Grayson McCall run for 9 yds to the CCaro 48Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 1
OWN 48
0
90.9%
Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Isaiah LikelySimilar
Q2 1:40
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+1
90.6%
Grayson McCall run for 1 yd to the CCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
90.9%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Braydon Bennett for 13 yds to the TexSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
91.0%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Kameron Brown for 9 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 1
OPP 29
0
91.1%
Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Kameron BrownSimilar
Q2 1:40
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+2
90.7%
Grayson McCall run for 2 yds to the TexSt 31Similar
Q2 0:23
4TH & 3
OPP 31
+49
89.9%
Massimo Biscardi 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 10TD
5 plays · 69 yds · 0:2311% → 19%
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
89.2%
Calvin Hill run for 10 yds to the TexSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
89.2%
Calvin Hill run for 5 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 5
OWN 46
0
88.7%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Ashtyn HawkinsSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+54
80.8%
Calvin Hill run for 54 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:0218% → 17%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
81.8%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Ashtyn HawkinsSimilar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+3
82.1%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jahmyl Jeter for 3 yds to the TexSt 25Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 13
OWN 25
0
82.9%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Javen BanksSimilar
Q3 13:53
4TH & 13
OWN 25
0
82.8%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jaivon Heiligh at the CCaro 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 12TD
4 plays · 62 yds · 1:3284% → 90%
Q3 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
84.3%
Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Jaivon HeilighSimilar
Q3 13:53
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+7
84.1%
Shermari Jones run for 7 yds to the CCaro 45Similar
Q3 13:53
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+3
84.5%
Braydon Bennett run for 3 yds to the CCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+52
90.0%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Kameron Brown for 52 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 13TD
7 plays · 64 yds · 2:2312% → 24%
Q3 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
88.1%
Calvin Hill run for 1 yd to the TexSt 37Similar
Q3 12:11
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+5
88.2%
Tyler Vitt run for 5 yds to the TexSt 42Similar
Q3 12:11
3RD & 4
OWN 42
-5
87.7%
PENALTY TXS False Start (Cooper,Dalton) 5 yards from TXS42 to TXS37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:11
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+15
88.8%
PENALTY CCU Personal Foul (Gunter,Jeffrey) 15 yards from TXS37 to CCU48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
87.1%
Calvin Hill run for 10 yds to the CCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
75.9%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 38 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 14TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:0381% → 90%
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
80.6%
Shermari Jones run for 6 yds to the CCaro 31Similar
Q3 9:48
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+14
81.6%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Braydon Bennett for 14 yds Braydon Bennett fumbled, forced by Tory Spears, recovered by CCaro Braydon Bennett for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
82.4%
Shermari Jones run for 1 yd to the CCaro 46Similar
Q3 9:48
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+9
82.2%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 9 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
83.0%
Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Jaivon HeilighSimilar
Q3 9:48
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+4
82.9%
Braydon Bennett run for 4 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q3 9:48
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+10
82.6%
Grayson McCall run for 10 yds to the TexSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
83.6%
Grayson McCall run for 7 yds to the TexSt 24Similar
Q3 9:48
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+3
83.6%
Shermari Jones run for 3 yds to the TexSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
90.3%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 21 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:2514% → 13%
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
86.4%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 15 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
85.3%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jahmyl Jeter for 4 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q3 4:37
2ND & 14
OWN 41
+5
86.5%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 5 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q3 4:37
3RD & 9
OWN 46
0
86.2%
Jahmyl Jeter run for no gain to the TexSt 46Similar
Q3 2:12
4TH & 9
OWN 46
0
86.6%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jaivon Heiligh at the CCaro 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 16PUNT
10 plays · 31 yds · 4:1889% → 90%
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
88.8%
Braydon Bennett run for 1 yd to the CCaro 21Similar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+1
88.7%
Shermari Jones run for 1 yd to the CCaro 22Similar
Q3 2:12
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+11
88.1%
Bryce Carpenter run for 11 yds to the CCaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
90.4%
Braydon Bennett run for 3 yds to the CCaro 36Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+9
90.8%
Bryce Carpenter run for 9 yds to the CCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
91.3%
Shermari Jones run for 3 yds to the CCaro 48Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+3
91.4%
Bryce Carpenter run for 3 yds to the TexSt 49Similar
Q4 13:07
3RD & 4
OPP 49
0
90.4%
Bryce Carpenter pass incomplete to Isaiah LikelySimilar
Q4 12:54
4TH & 4
OPP 49
0
89.8%
Charles Ouverson punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:3213% → 13%
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
86.9%
Ashtyn Hawkins run for 7 yds to the TexSt 23Similar
Q4 12:54
2ND & 3
OWN 23
0
86.2%
Calvin Hill run for no gain to the TexSt 23Similar
Q4 12:54
3RD & 3
OWN 23
+3
87.1%
Calvin Hill run for 3 yds to the TexSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
86.8%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Ashtyn HawkinsSimilar
Q4 12:54
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
87.2%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Calvin HillSimilar
Q4 12:54
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+7
87.9%
Tyler Vitt run for 7 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
Q4 10:22
4TH & 3
OWN 33
0
86.8%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jaivon Heiligh at the CCaro 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 18TD
4 plays · 68 yds · 1:5990% → 97%
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+19
89.7%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 19 yds to the TexSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
91.2%
Shermari Jones run for 8 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q4 10:22
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+2
91.4%
Shermari Jones run for 2 yds to the TexSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
97.1%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Tyson Mobley for 39 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 3:106% → 5%
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
94.4%
Tyler Vitt run for 5 yds to the TexSt 21Similar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+5
94.2%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Rontavious Groves for 5 yds to the TexSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
94.3%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 2 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 8
OWN 28
-8
93.9%
Tyler Vitt sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the TexSt 20Similar
Q4 8:16
3RD & 16
OWN 20
+8
94.6%
Tyler Vitt run for 8 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q4 5:06
4TH & 8
OWN 28
0
95.2%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 28 yds · 2:1997% → 98%
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+10
97.4%
Shermari Jones run for 10 yds to the CCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
97.6%
Shermari Jones run for 10 yds to the CCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
97.6%
Shermari Jones run for 4 yds to the TexSt 47Similar
Q4 5:06
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+2
97.6%
Grayson McCall run for 2 yds to the TexSt 49Similar
Q4 5:06
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+6
97.5%
Shermari Jones run for 6 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
Q4 2:47
4TH & 2
OPP 43
0
98.1%
Charles Ouverson punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 21DOWNS
17 plays · 54 yds · 2:363% → 2%
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
97.5%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Drue Jackson for 11 yds to the TexSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
97.4%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Calvin Hill for 4 yds to the TexSt 35Similar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+3
97.4%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Calvin Hill for 3 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q4 2:47
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+8
97.6%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 8 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
Q4 1:27
4TH & 1
OWN 40
+1
97.6%
Calvin Hill run for 1 yd to the TexSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
97.6%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Trevis Graham Jr.Similar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+17
97.6%
Calvin Hill run for 17 yds to the CCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
97.2%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Drue Jackson for 4 yds to the CCaro 38Similar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+3
98.1%
Calvin Hill run for 3 yds to the CCaro 41Similar
Q4 0:44
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+15
98.5%
Vitt,Tyler pass incomplete to Banks,Javen PENALTY CCU Pass Interference (Strong,D'Jordan) 15 yards from CCU41 to CCU26, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
98.0%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Marcell BarbeeSimilar
Q4 0:44
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
98.1%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Marcell BarbeeSimilar
Q4 0:44
3RD & 10
OPP 26
0
98.3%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Trevis Graham Jr.Similar
Q4 0:11
4TH & 10
OPP 26
0
98.5%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Marcell BarbeeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 22END OF 4TH QUARTER
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
99.3%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the CCaro 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:48
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 38 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)
-11.2
TD · Q2 0:00
Calvin Hill run for 54 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)
-7.9
TD · Q3 4:45
Grayson McCall pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 21 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK)
+6.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com