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CCU

Coastal Carolina 38 at Arkansas 39

ARK
2017 · Week 10 · Nov 4, 2017 · Razorback Stadium
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Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadCCU aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreCCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDFUMBLETDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:07 · Evan Rabon punt for 53 yds, downed at the Ark 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+45.0+22.50−22.5−45.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 137Pregame prior+13.0Home team on offense−29.9Score differential−14.2Garbage-time factor−8.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.9
This game in five plays
  1. FUMBLE · Q3 10:31: Cole Kelley run for a loss of 3 yards Cole Kelley fumbled, forced by Dontay Hears, recovered by CCaro Nicholas Clark , return for 31 yds (Evan Rabon KICK) — CCU win probability +16.7 pts (now 41%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:04: Austin Cantrell run for 5 yds for a TD (Cole Kelley pass to Jeremy Patton for Two-Point Conversion) — ARK win probability +15.9 pts (now 77%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. TD · Q4 12:57: Kilton Anderson pass complete to Chris Jones for 10 yds for a TD (Evan Rabon KICK) — CCU win probability +26.3 pts (now 82%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:09: T.J. Hammonds run for 88 yds for a TD (Connor Limpert KICK) — ARK win probability +23.6 pts (now 43%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:55: Cole Kelley run for 1 yd for a TD (Connor Limpert KICK) COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, OF ( Yards) declined — ARK win probability +36.6 pts (now 81%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 4 of 5CCU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 4:39ARK 4th & 1 at ARK 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 90.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.7%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q2 11:10CCU 4th & 7 at ARK 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 12.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    12.6%−0.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    12.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 1:07ARK 4th & 8 at CCU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.5%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.0%
    60% to make
    Punt
    80.6%−2.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:35CCU 4th & 20 at CCU 15, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.5%−2.6
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.1%
    average punt
  5. Q3 3:48CCU 4th & 9 at ARK 15, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.0%−2.0
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.0%
    83% to make
    Punt
    24.1%−11.9
    average punt
  6. Q3 3:48ARK 4th & 14 at ARK 29, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.1%−3.9
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.0%
    average punt
  7. Q4 15:00CCU 4th & 1 at ARK 26, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    49.9%−4.2
    64% to make
    Punt
    38.8%−15.3
    average punt
  8. Q4 12:57ARK 4th & 9 at ARK 26, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%−1.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.9%
    average punt
  9. Q4 12:07CCU 4th & 6 at CCU 35, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.0%−0.8
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.8%
    average punt
  10. Q4 7:56CCU 4th & 1 at CCU 34, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.9 ptsPunted · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.8%−2.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:49ARK 4th & 1 at ARK 33, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    34.9%−4.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:55CCU 4th & 10 at CCU 19, down 1
    Numbers favored punt by 1.2 ptsWent for it · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.7%−1.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    24.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 4 of 5CCU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 11:52ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:39CCU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:20CCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:10ARK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:32CCU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:04ARK Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    66.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    66.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:57CCU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.0%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.2%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 10:09ARK Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.4%−0.5
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:55ARK Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.6%−6.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1TD
8 plays · 68 yds · 3:0895% → 94%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
94.7%
Devwah Whaley run for 15 yds to the Ark 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
94.7%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Deon Stewart for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
50
+12
94.7%
Cole Kelley pass complete to La'Michael Pettway for 12 yds to the CCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
94.7%
Devwah Whaley run for 2 yds to the CCaro 36Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+14
94.7%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Deon Stewart for 14 yds to the CCaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+17
94.7%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Hayden Johnson for 17 yds to the CCaro 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
94.4%
Devwah Whaley run for 5 yds for a TD (Connor Limpert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 2TD
18 plays · 75 yds · 7:136% → 9%
Q1 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
94.3%
COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the CCaro 20Similar
Q1 11:52
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+17
94.3%
Tyler Keane pass complete to Malcolm Williams for 17 yds to the CCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
94.2%
Malcolm Williams run for 3 yds to the CCaro 40Similar
Q1 11:52
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+2
94.2%
Alex James run for 2 yds to the CCaro 42Similar
Q1 11:52
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+9
94.2%
Tyler Keane pass complete to Omar Black for 9 yds to the Ark 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
94.2%
Jacqez Hairston run for 7 yds to the Ark 42Similar
Q1 11:52
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+7
94.2%
Tyler Keane pass complete to Omar Black for 7 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
94.2%
Tyler Keane pass incomplete to Malcolm WilliamsSimilar
Q1 11:52
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+9
94.2%
Tyler Keane pass complete to Malcolm Williams for 9 yds to the Ark 26Similar
Q1 11:52
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+1
94.2%
Alex James run for 1 yd to the Ark 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
94.1%
Tyler Keane pass incomplete to Malcolm WilliamsSimilar
Q1 11:52
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+8
94.2%
Ky'Jon Tyler run for 8 yds to the Ark 17Similar
Q1 11:52
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+8
94.2%
Jacqez Hairston run for 8 yds to the Ark 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-10
94.1%
Tyler Keane pass complete to M. Williams for 4 yards to the AR5 (Josh Liddell), PENALTY CCU holding (Ethan Howard) 10 yards to the AR19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 19
+2
94.2%
Tyler Keane pass complete to Alex James for 2 yds to the Ark 17Similar
Q1 11:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 17
+8
94.2%
Tyler Keane pass incomplete to Omar Black, PENALTY AR roughing passer (Jake Hall) 8 yards to the AR9, 1ST DOWN CCU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
91.5%
Tyler Keane pass complete to Omar Black for 9 yds for a TD (Evan Rabon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
92.0%
David Williams run for 6 yds to the Ark 31Similar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-1
92.2%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 30Similar
Q1 4:39
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
92.0%
Cole Kelley run for 6 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
92.1%
David Williams rush for 4 yards to the AR40 (Shane Johnson;Ja'ree Tolbert), PENALTY AR holding (Brian Wallace) 10 yards to the AR26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:39
1ST & 20
OWN 26
0
92.0%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to Deon Stewart, broken up by Preston CareySimilar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 20
OWN 26
+19
92.0%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Jordan Jones for 19 yds to the Ark 45Similar
Q1 4:39
3RD & 1
OWN 45
0
92.2%
David Williams run for no gain to the Ark 45Similar
Q1 4:39
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+4
92.1%
Blake Johnson punt for 47 yds , Ky'Jon Tyler returns for 4 yds to the CCaro 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 4TD
8 plays · 88 yds · 3:409% → 15%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
90.6%
Jacqez Hairston run for no gain to the CCaro 12Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+8
90.6%
Jacqez Hairston run for 8 yds to the CCaro 20Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 20
+5
90.4%
Jacqez Hairston run for 5 yds to the CCaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
90.2%
Tyler Keane sacked by De'Jon Harris for a loss of 2 yards to the CCaro 23Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+14
90.2%
Tyler Keane pass complete to M. Williams for loss of 1 yard to the CCU22 (De?Jon Harris;K. Richardson), PENALTY AR roughing passer (McTelvin Agim) 14 yards to the CCU37, 1ST DOWN CCU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+43
90.0%
Tyler Keane pass complete to Chris Jones for 43 yds to the Ark 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
89.4%
Tyler Keane run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 21Similar
Q2 12:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
85.2%
Alex James run for 6 yds for a TD (Evan Rabon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5TD
4 plays · 74 yds · 1:1086% → 90%
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
86.4%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Jonathan Nance for 2 yards to the AR28 (Nicholas Clark), PENALTY CCU OF 5 yards to the AR31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 5
OWN 31
+9
86.8%
T.J. Hammonds run for 9 yds to the Ark 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+60
89.6%
Cole Kelley pass complete to T.J. Hammonds for 60 yds for a TD (Connor Limpert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 6PUNT
11 plays · 30 yds · 0:0011% → 12%
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
88.6%
Alex James run for a loss of 3 yards to the CCaro 22Similar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+5
88.7%
Tyler Keane pass complete to Marcus Williamson for 5 yds to the CCaro 27Similar
Q2 11:10
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+12
88.8%
Tyler Keane pass complete to Marcus Williamson for 12 yds to the CCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
88.1%
Alex James run for 6 yds to the CCaro 45Similar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 4
OWN 45
-2
87.9%
Alex James run for a loss of 2 yards to the CCaro 43Similar
Q2 11:10
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+9
88.2%
Kilton Anderson run for 9 yds to the Ark 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
87.7%
Osharmar Abercrombie run for 3 yds to the Ark 45Similar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 7
OPP 45
0
87.8%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Chris JonesSimilar
Q2 11:10
3RD & 7
OPP 45
0
87.9%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Alex James, broken up by Jake HallSimilar
Q2 11:10
4TH & 7
OPP 45
0
88.5%
Evan Rabon punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7FG
11 plays · 52 yds · 5:3887% → 86%
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
87.2%
Cole Kelley pass complete to De'Vion Warren for 5 yds to the Ark 25Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+8
87.3%
Devwah Whaley run for 8 yds to the Ark 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
87.3%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Deon Stewart for 8 yds to the Ark 41Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+3
88.1%
Austin Cantrell run for 3 yds to the Ark 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+14
88.0%
Devwah Whaley run for 14 yds to the CCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
88.3%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Jeremy Patton for 8 yds to the CCaro 34Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+4
88.5%
Devwah Whaley run for 4 yds to the CCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
88.5%
Devwah Whaley run for no gain to the CCaro 30Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+2
88.5%
Cole Kelley run for 2 yds to the CCaro 28Similar
Q2 6:45
3RD & 8
OPP 28
0
88.1%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete, broken up by Preston CareySimilar
Q2 1:07
4TH & 8
OPP 28
+46
86.0%
Connor Limpert 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · -10 yds · 0:3214% → 14%
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
85.7%
Kilton Anderson run for 7 yds to the CCaro 32Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-15
84.9%
M. Williams rush for loss of 2 yards to the CCU30 (Jake Hall), PENALTY CCU illegal block (Trey Carter) 15 yards to the CCU17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+6
85.5%
Kilton Anderson run for 6 yds to the CCaro 23Similar
Q2 0:47
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
86.0%
Alex James run for no gain to the CCaro 15 Alex James fumbled, forced by Randy Ramsey,Similar
Q2 0:35
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
86.2%
Evan Rabon punt for 40 yds, downed at the Ark 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 9END OF HALF
5 plays · 54 yds · 0:1886% → 86%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
86.4%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Jonathan Nance for 20 yards to the CCU35 (Fitz Wattley), PENALTY AR illegal formation 5 yards to the AR40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 15
OWN 40
+5
85.5%
Cole Kelley pass intercepted by Fitz Wattley at the CCU40, Fitz Wattley return to the AR41 (Jeremy Patton), PENALTY CCU substitution infraction 5 yards to the AR45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
86.9%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to Jeremy PattonSimilar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+54
86.4%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Jonathan Nance for 54 yds to the CCaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 10TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:2815% → 28%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
85.2%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Chris Jones for 22 yds to the CCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
83.7%
Kilton Anderson run for 1 yd to the CCaro 48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 48
0
83.8%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Jacqez Hairston, broken up by Kevin Richardson IISimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 48
+40
84.5%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Marcus Williamson for 40 yds to the Ark 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-4
82.7%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Marcus Williamson for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 16Similar
Q3 12:32
2ND & 14
OPP 16
+16
72.4%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Marcus Williamson for 16 yds for a TD (Evan Rabon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 11FUMBLE TD
5 plays · 16 yds · 2:0176% → 60%
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
75.7%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Austin Cantrell for 6 yds to the Ark 21Similar
Q3 12:32
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+7
76.2%
David Williams run for 7 yds to the Ark 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
76.2%
De'Vion Warren run for 6 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q3 10:31
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+31
59.5%
Cole Kelley run for a loss of 3 yards Cole Kelley fumbled, forced by Dontay Hears, recovered by CCaro Nicholas Clark , return for 31 yds (Evan Rabon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 12TD
7 plays · 71 yds · 2:2759% → 77%
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+22
58.6%
T.J. Hammonds run for 22 yds to the CCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+31
61.1%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Jeremy Patton for 31 yds to the CCaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
62.8%
T.J. Hammonds run for 2 yds to the CCaro 16Similar
Q3 10:31
2ND & 8
OPP 16
0
62.8%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to La'Michael Pettway, broken up by Dontay HearsSimilar
Q3 10:31
3RD & 8
OPP 16
+11
61.1%
Cole Kelley pass complete to David Williams for 11 yds to the CCaro 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
77.0%
Austin Cantrell run for 5 yds for a TD (Cole Kelley pass to Jeremy Patton for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 13FG
11 plays · 60 yds · 4:1629% → 44%
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
70.7%
Jacqez Hairston run for 2 yds to the CCaro 27Similar
Q3 8:04
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
70.5%
Ky'Jon Tyler run for 6 yds to the CCaro 33Similar
Q3 8:04
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
70.0%
Jacqez Hairston run for 4 yds to the CCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+31
69.7%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Chris Jones for 31 yds to the Ark 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
66.9%
Jacqez Hairston run for 8 yds to the Ark 24Similar
Q3 8:04
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+8
66.5%
Alex James run for 8 yds to the Ark 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
66.5%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Marcus Williamson, broken up by Santos RamirezSimilar
Q3 8:04
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+1
66.5%
Kilton Anderson run for 1 yd to the Ark 15Similar
Q3 8:04
3RD & 9
OPP 15
0
68.4%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Chris Jones, broken up by Henre' ToliverSimilar
Q3 3:48
4TH & 9
OPP 15
+32
55.6%
Evan Rabon 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 0:0060% → 57%
Q3 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
60.1%
Devwah Whaley run for 6 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q3 3:48
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+5
60.9%
Devwah Whaley run for 5 yds to the Ark 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
60.8%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to Deon StewartSimilar
Q3 3:48
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-4
60.5%
Devwah Whaley run for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 29Similar
Q3 3:48
3RD & 14
OWN 29
0
58.2%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to Deon Stewart, broken up by Preston CareySimilar
Q3 3:48
4TH & 14
OWN 29
0
57.2%
N/A punt for 6 yds, downed at the Ark 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 15TD
8 plays · 35 yds · 3:5253% → 82%
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
47.2%
Osharmar Abercrombie run for 5 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q3 1:49
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+4
47.0%
Osharmar Abercrombie run for 4 yds to the Ark 26Similar
Q3 1:49
3RD & 1
OPP 26
0
47.9%
Osharmar Abercrombie run for no gain to the Ark 26 Osharmar Abercrombie fumbled, forced by Briston Guidry, recovered by CCaro Laquay BrownSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+2
47.1%
Osharmar Abercrombie run for 2 yds to the Ark 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
43.8%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Chris JonesSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+12
44.2%
Kilton Anderson run for 12 yds to the Ark 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
43.8%
Alex James run for 2 yds to the Ark 10Similar
Q4 12:57
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+10
17.6%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Chris Jones for 10 yds for a TD (Evan Rabon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0029% → 28%
Q4 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
28.9%
T.J. Hammonds run for 1 yd to the Ark 26Similar
Q4 12:57
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
28.7%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to Jonathan NanceSimilar
Q4 12:57
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
27.5%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to Jordan Jones, broken up by Fitz WattleySimilar
Q4 12:57
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
27.5%
Blake Johnson punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Chris Jones at the CCaro 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0081% → 80%
Q4 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
18.7%
Jacqez Hairston run for 3 yds to the CCaro 34Similar
Q4 12:07
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+1
18.6%
Alex James run for 1 yd to the CCaro 35Similar
Q4 12:07
3RD & 6
OWN 35
0
19.2%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Marcus Williamson, broken up by Santos RamirezSimilar
Q4 12:07
4TH & 6
OWN 35
0
19.6%
Evan Rabon punt for 53 yds, downed at the Ark 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 18TD
1 play · 88 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+88
43.2%
T.J. Hammonds run for 88 yds for a TD (Connor Limpert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:1364% → 67%
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
36.3%
Marcus Williamson run for 7 yds to the CCaro 32Similar
Q4 10:09
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
35.1%
Kilton Anderson run for 1 yd to the CCaro 33Similar
Q4 10:09
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
35.8%
Osharmar Abercrombie run for 1 yd to the CCaro 34Similar
Q4 7:56
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
33.3%
Evan Rabon punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Henre' Toliver at the Ark 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 20TD
12 plays · 76 yds · 5:5442% → 81%
Q4 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
42.3%
T.J. Hammonds run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 23Similar
Q4 7:49
2ND & 11
OWN 23
0
41.9%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to Deon StewartSimilar
Q4 7:49
3RD & 11
OWN 23
+10
39.8%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Jeremy Patton for 10 yds to the Ark 33Similar
Q4 7:49
4TH & 1
OWN 33
+7
41.0%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Jonathan Nance for 7 yds to the Ark 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
45.9%
David Williams run for 9 yds to the Ark 49Similar
Q4 7:49
2ND & 1
OWN 49
-2
47.7%
T.J. Hammonds run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 47Similar
Q4 7:49
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+26
46.3%
Devwah Whaley run for 26 yds to the CCaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
51.7%
Devwah Whaley run for no gain to the CCaro 27Similar
Q4 7:49
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+21
51.5%
David Williams run for 21 yds to the CCaro 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
51.7%
Austin Cantrell run for 5 yds to the CCaro 1 Austin Cantrell fumbled, forced by Amir Howard, recovered by Ark Johnny Gibson Jr.Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
81.4%
Cole Kelley run for 1 yd for a TD (Connor Limpert KICK) COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, OF ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 21DOWNS
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0031% → 28%
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
68.8%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Chris JonesSimilar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
69.1%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Ky'Jon Tyler, broken up by Kevin Richardson IISimilar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 10
OWN 19
0
71.2%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Josh Anderson, broken up by Henre' ToliverSimilar
Q4 1:55
4TH & 10
OWN 19
0
72.3%
Kilton Anderson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 22END OF GAME
3 plays · -9 yds · 0:0085% → 80%
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-4
84.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the CCaro 23Similar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 14
OPP 23
-3
83.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the CCaro 26Similar
Q4 1:33
3RD & 17
OPP 26
-2
80.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the CCaro 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:55
Cole Kelley run for 1 yd for a TD (Connor Limpert KICK) COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, OF ( Yards) declined
+36.6
TD · Q4 12:57
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Chris Jones for 10 yds for a TD (Evan Rabon KICK)
-26.3
TD · Q4 10:09
T.J. Hammonds run for 88 yds for a TD (Connor Limpert KICK)
+23.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com