2017 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2017 · Kibbie Dome
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Win probability · IDHO
modelIDHO aheadCCU aheadconfidence bandkey playIDHO scoreCCU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:31 · Evan Rabon 52 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 6:57: Alex James run for 42 yds for a TD, (Evan Rabon KICK) — CCU win probability +10.9 pts (now 39%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 6:18: Mason Petrino pass incomplete to Alfonso Onunwor — IDHO win probability +10.4 pts (now 56%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
- FG · Q4 11:46: Evan Rabon 34 yd FG GOOD — CCU win probability +6.7 pts (now 72%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 3:08: Osharmar Abercrombie run for 3 yds to the Idaho 29 — CCU win probability +16.6 pts (now 90%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 0:41: Mason Petrino pass complete to Isaiah Saunders for 7 yds to the Idaho 32 — IDHO win probability +6.9 pts (now 11%) (top driver: IDHO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
IDHO made the numbers' call on 5 of 8CCU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
- Q1 11:19CCU 4th & 15 at CCU 39, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.0% before the snapGo for it29.9%−0.117% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.0%average punt
- Q1 10:19IDHO 4th & 3 at IDHO 27, up 7Close callPunted · 69.9% before the snapGo for it70.0%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call70.0%−0.1average punt
- Q1 8:14CCU 4th & 16 at CCU 34, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.2% before the snapGo for it29.0%−0.315% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.3%average punt
- Q1 5:18IDHO 4th & 7 at IDHO 23, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.4% before the snapGo for it70.4%−0.435% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call70.7%average punt
- Q1 1:19CCU 4th & 12 at IDHO 38, down 7Close callPunted · 28.5% before the snapGo for it28.4%−0.124% to convertField goal28.6%38% to makePuntTheir call28.5%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 15:00IDHO 4th & 2 at IDHO 39, up 7Close callPunted · 71.4% before the snapGo for it71.6%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call71.2%−0.4average punt
- Q2 6:50IDHO 4th & 3 at IDHO 49, tiedClose callPunted · 66.0% before the snapGo for it66.2%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call65.4%−0.8average punt
- Q2 0:31CCU 4th & 10 at IDHO 35, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.9% before the snapGo for it38.7%−0.830% to convertField goalTheir call39.5%45% to makePunt37.6%−1.9average punt
- Q3 15:00CCU 4th & 14 at CCU 33, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.5% before the snapGo for it40.0%−3.418% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call43.4%average punt
- Q3 6:18IDHO 4th & 12 at CCU 12, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.3% before the snapGo for it49.9%−2.819% to convertField goalTheir call52.7%86% to makePunt40.7%−12.0average punt
- Q3 3:00IDHO 4th & 18 at IDHO 43, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.6% before the snapGo for it46.8%−5.313% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call52.1%average punt
- Q4 11:46CCU 4th & 6 at IDHO 17, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.1% before the snapGo for it54.7%−1.438% to convertField goalTheir call56.1%80% to makePunt40.0%−16.2average punt
- Q4 9:35IDHO 4th & 10 at IDHO 32, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.2% before the snapGo for it29.5%−2.829% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.3%average punt
- Q4 5:12CCU 4th & 14 at IDHO 31, up 6Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.9% before the snapGo for it74.7%−2.619% to convertField goalTheir call77.3%54% to makePunt74.4%−2.9average punt
- Q4 3:14IDHO 4th & 5 at IDHO 47, down 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call21.7%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt16.5%−5.2average punt
- Q4 0:49CCU 4th & 5 at IDHO 27, up 6Close callWent for it · 89.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call88.8%−0.641% to convertField goal89.4%62% to makePunt85.3%−4.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IDHO made the numbers' call on 1 of 1CCU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 11:29IDHO Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call69.7%97% to makeGo for two69.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:57CCU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call32.8%97% to makeGo for two32.7%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartIDHODrive 1TD10 plays · 75 yds · 3:3168% → 69%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+20
68.2%
Mason Petrino pass complete to Jacob Sannon for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
68.2%
Mason Petrino pass complete to Alfonso Onunwor for 4 yds to the CCaro 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+12
68.2%
Mason Petrino pass complete to David Ungerer for 12 yds to the CCaro 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:29
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+18
69.3%
Mason Petrino pass complete to Alfonso Onunwor for 18 yds for a TD, (Cade Coffey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 2PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q1 11:19
4TH & 15
OWN 39
0
69.1%
Evan Rabon punt for 41 yds, fair catch by David Ungerer at the Idaho 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 3PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q1 10:19
2ND & 8
OWN 22
-5
69.2%
Petrino, Mason pass incomplete to Sannon, Jacob, QB hurry by Williamson, M., PENALTY IDAHO ineligible downfield on pass (Vrba, Conner) 5 yards to the IDAHO17, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q1 8:14
3RD & 6
OWN 44
-10
69.3%
Kilton Anderson sacked by D.J. Henderson and Ed Hall for a loss of 10 yards to the CCaro 34 COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 8:14
4TH & 16
OWN 34
0
69.9%
Evan Rabon punt for 46 yds, fair catch by David Ungerer at the Idaho 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 5PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:0670% → 70%
Q1 5:18
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
70.0%
Cade Coffey punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Chris Jones at the CCaro 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 6PUNT11 plays · 25 yds · 3:4530% → 28%
Q1 5:04
1ST & 10
50
+5
69.3%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Malcolm Williams for 5 yds to the Idaho 45Similar
Q1 5:04
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+10
69.4%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Malcolm Williams for 10 yds to the Idaho 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:19
3RD & 7
OPP 33
-5
70.6%
Wilson, Austin pass complete to Williams, M. for 10 yards to the IDAHO23 (Thomas, Sedrick), PENALTY COASTAL ineligible downfield on pass (Carter, Trey) 5 yards to the IDAHO38, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 7PUNT10 plays · 31 yds · 0:3372% → 72%
Q1 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-4
71.6%
Duckworth, A rush for 2 yards to the IDAHO10 (Williamson, M.;Johnson, Kerron), PENALTY IDAHO tripping (Tulette, Sean) 4 yards to the IDAHO4, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 6
+12
71.6%
Mason Petrino pass complete to Alfonso Onunwor for 12 yds to the Idaho 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 22
+9
71.5%
Mason Petrino pass complete to Alfonso Onunwor for 9 yds to the Idaho 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
72.0%
Mason Petrino pass complete to Jacob Sannon for 2 yds to the Idaho 33Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 39
+44
71.6%
Cade Coffey punt for 44 yds , Chris Jones returns for a loss of 1 yard to the CCaro 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 8TD8 plays · 84 yds · 3:5427% → 39%
Q2 10:51
3RD & 7
OWN 19
+9
73.8%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Chris Jones for 9 yds to the CCaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:51
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+15
73.0%
Anderson, K. pass incomplete to Jones, Chris (Thomas, Sedrick), PENALTY IDAHO personal foul (Coleman, Aikeem) 15 yards to the COASTAL45, 1ST DOWN COASTAL, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 9PUNT8 plays · 23 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
CCUDrive 10FG12 plays · 52 yds · 3:4237% → 45%
Q2 4:13
3RD & 5
OWN 18
+10
63.9%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Marcus Outlow for 10 yds to the CCaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:13
2ND & 2
OWN 36
-5
61.1%
COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Steven Bedosky) to the CCaro 31Similar
Q2 4:13
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+19
62.4%
Kilton Anderson run for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:13
1ST & 10
50
+15
59.8%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Malcolm Williams for 15 yds to the Idaho 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:13
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
59.1%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Jacqez Hairston for no gain to the Idaho 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 11INT7 plays · 21 yds · 0:2258% → 60%
Q2 0:09
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+5
59.7%
Mason Petrino pass intercepted Fitz Wattley return for 40 yds to the Idaho 24 Fitz Wattley fumbled, forced by Reuben Mwehla, recovered by CCaro Chandler Kryst , return for 5 yds to the Idaho 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 12PUNT8 plays · 8 yds · 0:0044% → 42%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
54.6%
COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Malcolm Williams) to the CCaro 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 33
0
57.1%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Larry Collins Jr., broken up by Aikeem ColemanSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 14
OWN 33
0
57.7%
Evan Rabon punt for 43 yds, fair catch by David Ungerer at the Idaho 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 13MISSED FG13 plays · 64 yds · 6:1356% → 51%
Q3 12:31
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+7
55.3%
Mason Petrino pass complete to Alfonso Onunwor for 7 yds to the Idaho 31Similar
Q3 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
58.3%
Mason Petrino pass complete to David Ungerer for 8 yds to the Idaho 48Similar
Q3 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
59.5%
Mason Petrino pass complete to J.J. Wills for 8 yds to the CCaro 38Similar
Q3 8:50
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+29
56.4%
Mason Petrino pass complete to David Ungerer for 29 yds to the CCaro 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-7
58.4%
Mason Petrino sacked by C.J. Brewer for a loss of 7 yards to the CCaro 15Similar
Q3 8:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
+3
53.8%
Mason Petrino pass complete to Alfonso Onunwor for 3 yds to the CCaro 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 14FUMBLE6 plays · 29 yds · 0:0050% → 54%
Q3 6:18
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+17
49.8%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Chris Jones for 17 yds to the CCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+10
45.6%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Larry Collins Jr. for 10 yds to the Idaho 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-14
45.6%
Kilton Anderson sacked by Kaden Elliss for a loss of 14 yards to the CCaro 49 Kilton Anderson fumbled, recovered by Idaho Kaden Elliss , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 15PUNT6 plays · -8 yds · 3:1856% → 46%
Q3 6:18
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-10
55.4%
Duckworth, A rush for 6 yards to the COASTAL43 (Howard, Amir;Hears, Dontay), PENALTY IDAHO holding (Dixon, Zion) 10 yards to the IDAHO41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:18
2ND & 20
OWN 41
0
51.9%
Mason Petrino pass incomplete to Alfonso Onunwor, broken up by Anthony ChesleySimilar
Q3 3:00
4TH & 18
OWN 43
+11
45.6%
Cade Coffey punt for 44 yds , Chris Jones returns for 11 yds to the IDAHO 46 IDAHO Penalty, personal foul (Qendarrion Barnett) to the CCaro 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 16FG13 plays · 44 yds · 5:3357% → 72%
IDHODrive 17PUNT8 plays · 11 yds · 2:0630% → 27%
Q4 11:41
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+4
31.0%
Mason Petrino pass complete to David Ungerer for 4 yds to the Idaho 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:41
2ND & 9
OWN 33
0
29.5%
Mason Petrino pass incomplete to Alfonso Onunwor, broken up by C.J. BrewerSimilar
Q4 9:35
4TH & 10
OWN 32
+10
26.7%
Cade Coffey punt for 48 yds , Chris Jones returns for 10 yds to the CCaro 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 18MISSED FG8 plays · 39 yds · 3:5775% → 80%
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
25.2%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Malcolm Williams for 6 yds to the CCaro 36Similar
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
23.4%
Osharmar Abercrombie run for 17 yds to the IDAHO 42 for a 1ST down COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the Idaho 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 19DOWNS6 plays · 1 yds · 1:5822% → 26%
CCUDrive 20DOWNS5 plays · 7 yds · 2:1990% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 21END OF GAME4 plays · 10 yds · 0:0011% → 10%
Q4 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
11.1%
Mason Petrino pass complete to Isaiah Saunders for 7 yds to the Idaho 32Similar
Q4 0:41
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-15
12.5%
Petrino, Mason pass incomplete to Onunwor, A, QB hurry by Williamson, M., PENALTY IDAHO clipping (Rose, Jordan) 15 yards to the IDAHO17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:41
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+9
11.3%
Mason Petrino pass complete to Isaiah Saunders for 9 yds to the Idaho 26Similar
Q4 0:41
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+9
10.4%
Mason Petrino pass complete to David Ungerer for 9 yds to the Idaho 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 3:08
Osharmar Abercrombie run for 3 yds to the Idaho 29
-16.6
TD · Q2 6:57
Alex James run for 42 yds for a TD, (Evan Rabon KICK)
-10.9
KEY PLAY · Q3 6:18
Mason Petrino pass incomplete to Alfonso Onunwor
+10.4