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CCU

Coastal Carolina 13 at UCLA 27

UCLA
2023 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2023 · Rose Bowl
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Win probability · UCLA
modelUCLA aheadCCU aheadconfidence bandkey playUCLA scoreCCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:33 · Evan Crenshaw punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Logan Loya at the UCLA 39
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 62Pregame prior+20.5Home team on offense+2.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 11:12: Liam Gray 22 Yd Field Goal — CCU win probability +2.1 pts (now 23%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q2 3:57: Carson Steele 14 Yd pass from Dante Moore (RJ Lopez Kick) — UCLA win probability +6.2 pts (now 84%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:00: Liam Gray 41 Yd Field Goal — CCU win probability +2.7 pts (now 16%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:08: Sam Pinckney 9 Yd pass from Grayson McCall (Liam Gray Kick) — CCU win probability +10.9 pts (now 32%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:59: J. Michael Sturdivant 62 Yd pass from Dante Moore (RJ Lopez Kick) — UCLA win probability +22.9 pts (now 89%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCLA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4CCU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 8:10CCU 4th & 9 at UCLA 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.9%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.0%
    81% to make
    Punt
    15.4%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q2 11:12CCU 4th & 5 at UCLA 5, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.8%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.8%
    92% to make
    Punt
    15.1%−2.8
    average punt
  3. Q2 8:18UCLA 4th & 6 at midfield, up 4
    Close callPunted · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.0%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:33CCU 4th & 1 at CCU 19, down 4
    Close callPunted · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.3%−1.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:00CCU 4th & 21 at UCLA 24, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.2%−1.4
    8% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.6%
    68% to make
    Punt
    10.5%−3.0
    average punt
  6. Q3 10:58CCU 4th & 1 at UCLA 11, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    14.8%−2.3
    87% to make
    Punt
    7.4%−9.7
    average punt
  7. Q3 4:09UCLA 4th & 6 at UCLA 41, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.1%−1.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.3%
    average punt
  8. Q4 14:07CCU 4th & 3 at UCLA 38, down 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.5%
    53% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.1%−3.4
    38% to make
    Punt
    29.8%−3.7
    average punt
  9. Q4 11:56CCU 4th & 5 at CCU 22, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.9%−1.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.0%
    average punt
  10. Q4 5:39UCLA 4th & 7 at CCU 13, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.2%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.3%
    85% to make
    Punt
    87.1%−5.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:25CCU 4th & 3 at CCU 32, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.9%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:26UCLA 4th & 7 at CCU 29, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.8%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.8%
    58% to make
    Punt
    93.3%−1.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCLA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3CCU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 12:56UCLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:57UCLA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:08CCU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:59UCLA Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCLADrive 1TD
8 plays · 78 yds · 1:5382% → 82%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
81.8%
Ethan Garbers pass incomplete to J. Michael SturdivantSimilar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+10
81.8%
Carson Steele run for 10 yds to the UCLA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
81.6%
Carson Steele run for 7 yds to the UCLA 39Similar
Q1 13:50
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+24
81.7%
Carson Steele run for 24 yds to the CCU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+16
81.6%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Logan Loya for 16 yds to the CCU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
81.6%
Ethan Garbers pass incomplete to TJ HardenSimilar
Q1 12:56
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+21
82.0%
Carsen Ryan 21 Yd pass from Ethan Garbers (RJ Lopez Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 2MISSED FG
11 plays · 49 yds · 4:4018% → 19%
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
81.7%
UCLA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jay Toia) to the CCU 40Similar
Q1 12:28
1ST & 5
OWN 40
+3
81.6%
Reese White run for 3 yds to the CCU 43Similar
Q1 11:50
2ND & 2
OWN 43
-2
81.6%
Grayson McCall run for a loss of 2 yards to the CCU 41Similar
Q1 10:58
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+31
81.5%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 31 yds to the UCLA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
81.2%
Jared Brown run for 6 yds to the UCLA 22Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+5
81.1%
Grayson McCall run for 5 yds to the UCLA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
81.1%
Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Jared BrownSimilar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+1
81.1%
Reese White run for 1 yd to the UCLA 16Similar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 9
OPP 16
0
81.2%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Kendall Karr for no gain to the UCLA 16Similar
Q1 8:10
4TH & 9
OPP 16
+33
81.4%
Liam Gray 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 3INT
14 plays · 72 yds · 5:1582% → 82%
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
81.7%
Carson Steele run for 4 yds to the UCLA 24Similar
Q1 7:40
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+4
81.6%
Carson Steele run for 4 yds to the UCLA 28Similar
Q1 7:12
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+3
81.4%
Ethan Garbers run for 3 yds to the UCLA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
81.7%
Ethan Garbers run for 3 yds to the UCLA 34Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+15
81.6%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Kyle Ford for 15 yds to the UCLA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+24
82.0%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Kyle Ford for 24 yds to the CCU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
82.1%
Ethan Garbers pass incomplete to J. Michael SturdivantSimilar
Q1 5:23
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-5
82.1%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (Carsen Ryan) to the CCU 32Similar
Q1 4:56
2ND & 15
OPP 32
+10
81.9%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Ryan Cragun for 10 yds to the CCU 22Similar
Q1 4:22
3RD & 5
OPP 22
+10
81.9%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 10 yds to the CCU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
82.1%
Carson Steele run for 3 yds to the CCU 9Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 7
OPP 9
-5
82.2%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (Garrett DiGiorgio) to the CCU 14Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 12
OPP 14
+6
82.1%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Carson Steele for 6 yds to the CCU 8Similar
Q1 2:45
3RD & 6
OPP 8
0
81.9%
Ethan Garbers pass intercepted, touchback. Clayton Isbell return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 4FG
17 plays · 75 yds · 6:2019% → 23%
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
81.0%
Grayson McCall run for 4 yds to the CCU 24Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+12
80.8%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Braydon Bennett for 12 yds to the CCU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
80.6%
Braydon Bennett run for 1 yd to the CCU 37Similar
Q1 0:56
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
80.6%
Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Sam PinckneySimilar
Q1 0:37
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+20
80.9%
Grayson McCall run for 10 yds to the CCU 47 for a 1ST down UCLA Penalty, Defensive Holding (Devin Kirkwood) to the UCLA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+13
79.8%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jameson Tucker for 13 yds to the UCLA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
79.2%
UCLA Penalty, Offside Defense (Jay Toia) to the UCLA 25Similar
Q2 14:22
1ST & 5
OPP 25
+3
79.0%
Reese White run for 3 yds to the UCLA 22Similar
Q2 13:53
2ND & 2
OPP 22
0
78.9%
Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Sam PinckneySimilar
Q2 13:42
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+4
79.5%
Grayson McCall run for 4 yds to the UCLA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
78.8%
Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Sam PinckneySimilar
Q2 12:34
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+1
78.8%
Braydon Bennett run for 1 yd to the UCLA 17Similar
Q2 12:13
3RD & 9
OPP 17
+12
79.5%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 12 yds to the UCLA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
78.5%
Reese White run for no gain to the UCLA 5Similar
Q2 11:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
78.5%
Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Matt AlaimoSimilar
Q2 11:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
79.1%
Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Matt AlaimoSimilar
Q2 11:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
77.1%
Liam Gray 22 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 2:3778% → 77%
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
77.6%
TJ Harden run for 8 yds to the UCLA 26Similar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 2
OWN 26
+5
78.1%
TJ Harden run for 5 yds to the UCLA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
77.7%
Garbers, Ethan pass incomplete to Sturdivant, J. Michael, PENALTY COASTALCAR roughing passer (Ryan, Braylon) 15 yards to the UCLA46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UCLA.Similar
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
78.6%
TJ Harden run for no gain to the UCLA 46Similar
Q2 9:26
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+3
78.1%
Ethan Garbers run for 3 yds to the UCLA 49Similar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+1
77.8%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to TJ Harden for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:18
4TH & 6
50
0
76.9%
Will Powers punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jared Brown at the CCU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2823% → 22%
Q2 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
77.3%
CJ Beasley run for 2 yds to the CCU 12Similar
Q2 7:36
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+3
77.3%
Braydon Bennett run for 3 yds to the CCU 15Similar
Q2 6:58
3RD & 5
OWN 15
+4
77.7%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Braydon Bennett for 4 yds to the CCU 19Similar
Q2 6:33
4TH & 1
OWN 19
0
77.9%
Evan Crenshaw punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Logan Loya at the UCLA 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 7TD
7 plays · 61 yds · 2:2678% → 84%
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
78.0%
Carson Steele run for 4 yds to the UCLA 43Similar
Q2 5:53
2ND & 6
OWN 43
0
78.5%
Dante Moore pass complete to Carson Steele for no gain to the UCLA 43Similar
Q2 5:10
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+39
77.6%
Dante Moore pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 39 yds to the CCU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
79.1%
Dante Moore pass incomplete to J. Michael SturdivantSimilar
Q2 4:44
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+4
79.1%
Carson Steele run for 4 yds to the CCU 14Similar
Q2 3:57
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+14
84.4%
Carson Steele 14 Yd pass from Dante Moore (RJ Lopez Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 8END OF HALF
16 plays · 51 yds · 3:3816% → 16%
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
83.7%
Reese White run for 7 yds to the CCU 32Similar
Q2 3:04
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-1
83.0%
Braydon Bennett run for a loss of 1 yard to the CCU 31Similar
Q2 2:30
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
84.0%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jameson Tucker for 5 yds to the CCU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
83.6%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Tyson Mobley for 15 yds to the UCLA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
82.6%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jared Brown for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 11
50
+5
83.2%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 5 yds to the UCLA 45Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+7
84.2%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 7 yds to the UCLA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
83.9%
Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Sam PinckneySimilar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+25
84.0%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Kyre Duplessis for 25 yds to the UCLA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
82.8%
Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Jared BrownSimilar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
82.8%
Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Sam PinckneySimilar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 10
OPP 13
-11
83.8%
Grayson McCall sacked by Gabriel Murphy for a loss of 11 yards to the UCLA 24Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 21
OPP 24
+41
83.8%
Liam Gray 41 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 9TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:4418% → 32%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.5%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Matt Alaimo for no gain to the CCU 25Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
82.6%
UCLA Penalty, Offside Defense (Grayson Murphy) to the CCU 30Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-2
82.0%
Grayson McCall run for a loss of 2 yards to the CCU 28Similar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+52
83.0%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 52 yds to the UCLA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
79.0%
Braydon Bennett run for no gain to the UCLA 20Similar
Q3 11:41
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+9
79.2%
Jared Brown run for 9 yds to the UCLA 11Similar
Q3 11:13
3RD & 1
OPP 11
0
80.0%
Braydon Bennett run for no gain to the UCLA 11Similar
Q3 10:58
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+2
81.0%
Braydon Bennett run for 2 yds to the UCLA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
78.8%
Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Sam PinckneySimilar
Q3 10:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
67.9%
Sam Pinckney 9 Yd pass from Grayson McCall (Liam Gray Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 10INT
6 plays · 39 yds · 1:1673% → 76%
Q3 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
73.0%
Coastal Carolina Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jacob Proche) to the UCLA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
74.6%
Ethan Garbers pass incomplete to J. Michael SturdivantSimilar
Q3 9:48
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+6
73.7%
Carson Steele run for 6 yds to the UCLA 46Similar
Q3 9:19
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+18
74.3%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Logan Loya for 18 yds to the CCU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-29
75.8%
Ethan Garbers pass intercepted Clayton Isbell return for 29 yds to the CCU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 11INT
9 plays · 39 yds · 3:0829% → 34%
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
71.0%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Kendall Karr for 7 yds to the CCU 44Similar
Q3 8:01
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+2
68.9%
CJ Beasley run for 2 yds to the CCU 46Similar
Q3 7:23
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+2
68.9%
CJ Beasley run for 2 yds to the CCU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
68.2%
CJ Beasley run for 8 yds to the UCLA 44Similar
Q3 6:33
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+7
67.3%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jared Brown for 7 yds to the UCLA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
67.5%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jared Brown for 4 yds to the UCLA 33Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+9
65.8%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jared Brown for 9 yds to the UCLA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
65.8%
Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Jared BrownSimilar
Q3 5:28
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-7
66.2%
Grayson McCall pass intercepted Jaylin Davies return for 7 yds to the UCLA 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:1972% → 70%
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+15
71.6%
Coastal Carolina Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Nick Del Grande) to the UCLA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
72.6%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Carson Steele for no gain to the UCLA 37Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+4
71.7%
Carson Steele run for 4 yds to the UCLA 41Similar
Q3 4:20
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
71.8%
Ethan Garbers pass incomplete to Kam BrownSimilar
Q3 4:09
4TH & 6
OWN 41
+57
69.8%
Will Powers punt for 57 yds , Jared Brown returns for a loss of 1 yard to the CCU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 13MISSED FG
10 plays · 61 yds · 4:5029% → 34%
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+5
70.7%
Reese White run for 5 yds to the CCU 6Similar
Q3 3:27
2ND & 5
OWN 6
+6
70.9%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 6 yds to the CCU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
69.9%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jared Brown for 5 yds to the CCU 17Similar
Q3 2:34
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+19
69.9%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 19 yds to the CCU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
68.2%
Reese White run for 3 yds to the CCU 39Similar
Q3 1:29
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+16
66.5%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Kendall Karr for 16 yds to the UCLA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
64.6%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jared Brown for 7 yds to the UCLA 38Similar
Q3 0:14
2ND & 3
OPP 38
-1
63.8%
Reese White run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 39Similar
Q4 14:40
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+1
64.5%
Grayson McCall run for 1 yd to the UCLA 38Similar
Q4 14:07
4TH & 3
OPP 38
+55
66.5%
Liam Gray 55 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 14TD
1 play · 62 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+62
89.4%
J. Michael Sturdivant 62 Yd pass from Dante Moore (RJ Lopez Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:4114% → 12%
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
86.4%
Braydon Bennett run for 5 yds to the CCU 22Similar
Q4 12:57
2ND & 5
OWN 22
-5
86.1%
Grayson McCall sacked by Laiatu Latu for a loss of 5 yards to the CCU 17Similar
Q4 12:37
3RD & 10
OWN 17
+5
87.7%
UCLA Penalty, Offside Defense (Laiatu Latu) to the CCU 22Similar
Q4 12:24
3RD & 5
OWN 22
0
87.4%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Tyson Mobley for no gain to the CCU 22Similar
Q4 11:56
4TH & 5
OWN 22
0
88.1%
Evan Crenshaw punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Logan Loya at the UCLA 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 16INT
9 plays · 57 yds · 3:2488% → 91%
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
88.4%
TJ Harden run for 8 yds to the UCLA 41Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+8
89.7%
TJ Harden run for 8 yds to the UCLA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-2
90.3%
TJ Harden run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 47Similar
Q4 10:12
2ND & 12
OWN 47
+14
90.1%
Dante Moore pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 14 yds to the CCU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-4
90.6%
Dante Moore sacked by Allen Henry and Micheal Mason for a loss of 4 yards to the CCU 43Similar
Q4 9:14
2ND & 14
OPP 43
+30
90.5%
TJ Harden run for 30 yds to the CCU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
91.1%
TJ Harden run for 3 yds to the CCU 10Similar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 7
OPP 10
0
91.2%
Dante Moore pass intercepted, touchback. Clayton Isbell return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 17INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
88.2%
Grayson McCall pass intercepted John Humphrey return for 1 yd to the CCU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 18FG
7 plays · 17 yds · 1:5992% → 94%
Q4 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
91.8%
Dante Moore pass complete to Logan Loya for 3 yds to the CCU 27Similar
Q4 7:09
2ND & 7
OPP 27
0
92.2%
Dante Moore run for no gain to the CCU 27Similar
Q4 6:50
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+11
91.7%
Dante Moore pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 11 yds to the CCU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
92.6%
Carson Steele run for 3 yds to the CCU 13Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 7
OPP 13
0
92.8%
Dante Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:44
3RD & 7
OPP 13
0
93.6%
Dante Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:39
4TH & 7
OPP 13
+31
93.9%
RJ Lopez 31 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 19DOWNS
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:077% → 7%
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
92.6%
Braydon Bennett run for 3 yds to the CCU 28Similar
Q4 5:06
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
91.8%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Matt Alaimo for 4 yds to the CCU 32Similar
Q4 4:30
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
92.4%
Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Tyson MobleySimilar
Q4 4:25
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
93.1%
Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Sam PinckneySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 20FG
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5295% → 98%
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
94.8%
Carson Steele run for 2 yds to the CCU 30Similar
Q4 3:37
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+1
95.5%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the CCU 29Similar
Q4 3:33
3RD & 7
OPP 29
0
95.9%
Dante Moore pass incomplete to Kyle FordSimilar
Q4 3:26
4TH & 7
OPP 29
+47
97.9%
RJ Lopez 47 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 21FUMBLE
5 plays · 19 yds · 0:433% → 3%
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
97.3%
Grayson McCall sacked by Laiatu Latu for a loss of 9 yards to the CCU 16Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+33
97.4%
Jarrett Guest pass complete to CJ Beasley for 18 yds to the CCU 34 for a 1ST down UCLA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Jaylin Davies) to the CCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-2
97.1%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Sam Pinckney for a loss of 2 yards to the CCU 47Similar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 12
OWN 47
-3
97.2%
Grayson McCall sacked by Gabriel Murphy for a loss of 3 yards to the CCU 44 Grayson McCall fumbled, forced by Laiatu Latu, recovered by UCLA Carl Jones Jr. , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 22END OF GAME
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:4398% → 99%
Q4 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
98.3%
TJ Harden run for 2 yds to the CCU 42Similar
Q4 1:31
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+3
98.6%
TJ Harden run for 3 yds to the CCU 39Similar
Q4 1:21
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+11
98.7%
TJ Harden run for 11 yds to the CCU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-3
98.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the CCU 31Similar
Q4 0:20
2ND & 13
OPP 31
-1
98.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the CCU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:59
J. Michael Sturdivant 62 Yd pass from Dante Moore (RJ Lopez Kick)
+22.9
TD · Q3 10:08
Sam Pinckney 9 Yd pass from Grayson McCall (Liam Gray Kick)
-10.9
TD · Q2 3:57
Carson Steele 14 Yd pass from Dante Moore (RJ Lopez Kick)
+6.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com