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CCU

Coastal Carolina 27 at Arkansas State 17

ARST
2023 · Week 8 · Oct 21, 2023 · Centennial Bank Stadium
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Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadCCU aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreCCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-5ARST 11.3%Kade Hensley 22 yd FG GOODAWAY 20 - HOME 10 · Q4 9:54
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:54 · Kade Hensley 22 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 135Pregame prior−4.7Home team on offense−25.8Score differential−10.0Garbage-time factor−11.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.6
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 4:46: Dominic Zvada 34 yd FG GOOD — ARST win probability +4.2 pts (now 24%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:30: Grayson McCall pass complete to Kendall Karr for 7 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK) — CCU win probability +15.9 pts (now 88%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:09: Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Emmanual Stevenson for 10 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK) — ARST win probability +12.1 pts (now 31%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 9:54: Kade Hensley 22 yd FG GOOD — CCU win probability +5.0 pts (now 89%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:54: Jarrett Guest run for 3 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK) — CCU win probability +4.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 7 of 8CCU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 11:37CCU 4th & 17 at ARST 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.6%−0.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    68.7%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    68.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:07ARST 4th & 3 at ARST 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:29CCU 4th & 3 at CCU 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 67.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:24CCU 4th & 12 at ARST 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.5%−0.6
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.1%
    74% to make
    Punt
    61.9%−2.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:25ARST 4th & 6 at CCU 6, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    31.5%−5.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:46ARST 4th & 17 at CCU 17, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.6%−1.2
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.8%
    80% to make
    Punt
    23.3%−3.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:40CCU 4th & 1 at ARST 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    69.8%−1.5
    72% to make
    Punt
    65.5%−5.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:37ARST 4th & 8 at ARST 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.4%−0.9
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:14CCU 4th & 7 at CCU 21, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.0%−1.7
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:09CCU 4th & 1 at ARST 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    70.7%−2.8
    58% to make
    Punt
    65.0%−8.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:16ARST 4th & 11 at ARST 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.5%−1.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:08CCU 4th & 6 at CCU 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.7%−1.0
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:18ARST 4th & 10 at ARST 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.4%−1.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:54CCU 4th & 2 at ARST 5, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 81.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.1%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.8%−2.2
    92% to make
    Punt
    68.3%−12.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:53ARST 4th & 22 at ARST 41, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%−2.9
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:33CCU 4th & 10 at CCU 13, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.6%−2.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:56CCU 4th & 5 at ARST 26, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.2%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.4%
    64% to make
    Punt
    89.9%−3.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:26ARST 4th & 1 at CCU 36, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    7.0%−0.8
    42% to make
    Punt
    5.6%−2.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2CCU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 6:16CCU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:30CCU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:09ARST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 3:54CCU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:49ARST Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CCUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 36 yds · 3:1976% → 75%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
23.7%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jared Brown for no gain to the CCU 18Similar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+43
23.7%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jared Brown for 43 yds to the ARST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-15
23.7%
MCCALL, Grayson pass to the right complete for 13 yards to BROWN, Jared caught at the ASU27 and advanced to the ASU26; QB hurried by GEATHERS, Thurman, out of bounds. PENALTY CCU Pass Interference on PINCKNEY, Sam enforced 15 yards to the CCU46 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 25
OWN 46
+3
23.7%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jared Brown for 3 yds to the CCU 49Similar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 22
OWN 49
+10
23.7%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Kyre Duplessis for 10 yds to the ARST 41Similar
Q1 14:56
3RD & 12
OPP 41
-5
23.7%
Grayson McCall run for a loss of 5 yards to the ARST 46Similar
Q1 11:37
4TH & 17
OPP 46
0
25.5%
Evan Crenshaw punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:3025% → 26%
Q1 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
25.4%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 8 yds to the ARST 28Similar
Q1 11:37
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+1
25.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 1 yd to the ARST 29Similar
Q1 11:37
3RD & 1
OWN 29
-2
25.3%
Zak Wallace run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARST 27Similar
Q1 10:07
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
25.8%
William Przystup punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Jared Brown at the CCU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:3874% → 73%
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
26.1%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jared Brown for 11 yds to the CCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
26.0%
Reese White run for 1 yd to the CCU 36Similar
Q1 10:07
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+3
26.0%
Braydon Bennett run for 3 yds to the CCU 39Similar
Q1 10:07
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+3
26.0%
Braydon Bennett run for 3 yds to the CCU 42Similar
Q1 7:29
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
27.4%
Evan Crenshaw punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Courtney Jackson at the ARST 8Similar
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-5
27.3%
QB Keeper RAYNOR, Jaylen rush to the right for a gain of 5 yards to the ASU13 (FLETCHER, Tobias;ISBELL, Clayton). PENALTY ASU Holding on THOMAS, Makilan enforced half the distance from the goal, 4 yards from the ASU8 to the ASU4 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4INT
8 plays · 47 yds · 2:4527% → 29%
Q1 7:29
1ST & 14
OWN 4
+1
27.3%
Cedric Hawkins run for 1 yd to the ARST 5Similar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 13
OWN 5
+15
27.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 15 yds to the ARST 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+22
27.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 22 yds to the ARST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
28.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+13
27.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 13 yds to the CCU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
28.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
28.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:44
3RD & 10
OPP 45
0
29.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 5FG
9 plays · 34 yds · 4:2072% → 71%
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
27.6%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Braydon Bennett for a loss of 1 yard to the CCU 44Similar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+12
27.9%
Grayson McCall run for 12 yds to the ARST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
27.3%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Braydon Bennett for 8 yds to the ARST 36Similar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+17
27.2%
Braydon Bennett run for 17 yds to the ARST 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-2
26.9%
Braydon Bennett run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARST 21Similar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 12
OPP 21
+2
27.1%
Braydon Bennett run for 2 yds to the ARST 19Similar
Q1 4:44
3RD & 10
OPP 19
-2
27.5%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Sam Pinckney for a loss of 2 yards to the ARST 21Similar
Q1 0:24
4TH & 12
OPP 21
+38
29.1%
Kade Hensley 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6MISSED FG
16 plays · 69 yds · 5:3527% → 30%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
26.8%
Ja'Quez Cross run for no gain to the ARST 25Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
26.7%
Jaylen Raynor run for 1 yd to the ARST 26Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+9
26.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 9 yds to the ARST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
27.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+2
26.9%
Jaylen Raynor run for 2 yds to the ARST 37Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+13
26.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Emmanual Stevenson for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
50
0
28.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
50
+25
28.0%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 25 yds to the CCU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+18
28.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 18 yds to the CCU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
28.9%
Direct snap to CROSS, Ja'Quez rush up the middle for a gain of 7 yards to the CCU0, TOUCHDOWN ASU, score nullified by penalty (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY Before the snap, ASU Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the CCU7 to the CCU12. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 12
+2
28.9%
Jaylen Raynor run for 2 yds to the CCU 10Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
28.9%
Jaylen Raynor run for a loss of 1 yard to the CCU 11Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+5
28.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 5 yds to the CCU 6Similar
Q2 9:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
30.3%
Dominic Zvada 23 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 7TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 3:0970% → 72%
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
29.7%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 9 yds to the CCU 29Similar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+13
29.0%
Max Balthazar run for 13 yds to the CCU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
28.5%
Max Balthazar run for 3 yds to the CCU 45Similar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+29
28.1%
Max Balthazar run for 29 yds to the ARST 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+15
26.6%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Kendall Karr for 15 yds to the ARST 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
26.6%
Braydon Bennett run for 3 yds to the ARST 8Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 7
OPP 8
0
26.5%
Grayson McCall pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:16
3RD & 7
OPP 8
+8
27.7%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 8 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8FG
6 plays · 58 yds · 1:3019% → 24%
Q2 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+68
18.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 68 yds to the CCU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
21.0%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 3 yds to the CCU 4Similar
Q2 6:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
21.0%
Jaylen Raynor run for 2 yds to the CCU 2Similar
Q2 4:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-15
20.1%
QB Keeper RAYNOR, Jaylen rush to the left for a gain of 2 yards to the CCU0, TOUCHDOWN ASU, score nullified by penalty, clock 04:56 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY ASU Block below the waist on STEVENSON, Emmanual enforced 15 yards from the CCU2 to the CCU17 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 4:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 17
0
19.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:46
4TH & GOAL
OPP 17
+34
23.8%
Dominic Zvada 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 9TD
9 plays · 81 yds · 4:1070% → 88%
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
30.3%
Grayson McCall run for 7 yds to the CCU 26Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+43
29.5%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jameson Tucker for 43 yds to the ARST 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
27.8%
Braydon Bennett run for 4 yds to the ARST 27Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+5
27.5%
Braydon Bennett run for 5 yds to the ARST 22Similar
Q2 4:40
3RD & 1
OPP 22
0
28.2%
CJ Beasley run for no gain to the ARST 22Similar
Q2 4:40
4TH & 1
OPP 22
+1
29.2%
Grayson McCall run for 1 yd to the ARST 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+9
27.4%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Kendall Karr for 9 yds to the ARST 12Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 1
OPP 12
+5
27.4%
Reese White run for 5 yds to the ARST 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
11.6%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Kendall Karr for 7 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10END OF HALF
1 play · 5 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
10.0%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 5 yds to the ARST 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:2318% → 17%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
17.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Emmanual Stevenson for 2 yds to the ARST 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
18.0%
Ja'Quez Cross run for no gain to the ARST 27Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
17.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:37
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
17.4%
William Przystup punt for 55 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:2384% → 83%
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
16.5%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Matt Alaimo for 2 yds to the CCU 20Similar
Q3 13:37
2ND & 8
OWN 20
-10
16.6%
SIMPKINS, Ja'Vin rush to the left for a gain of 9 yards to the CCU29 (WILLEKES, Charles;THOMAS, Trevian). PENALTY CCU Holding on ALAIMO, Matt enforced 10 yards from the CCU20 to the CCU10 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 13:37
2ND & 18
OWN 10
0
16.7%
Grayson McCall pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:37
3RD & 18
OWN 10
+11
17.1%
Ja'Vin Simpkins run for 11 yds to the CCU 21Similar
Q3 12:14
4TH & 7
OWN 21
0
16.9%
Evan Crenshaw punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13TD
5 plays · 52 yds · 2:0518% → 31%
Q3 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+29
17.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 29 yds to the CCU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
18.6%
Zak Wallace run for 4 yds to the CCU 19Similar
Q3 12:14
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+11
18.5%
Zak Wallace run for 11 yds to the CCU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
18.5%
Zak Wallace run for a loss of 2 yards to the CCU 10Similar
Q3 10:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
30.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Emmanual Stevenson for 10 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 14FUMBLE
12 plays · 40 yds · 5:2576% → 80%
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
24.2%
CJ Beasley run for 11 yds to the CCU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
23.1%
CJ Beasley run for 4 yds to the CCU 40Similar
Q3 10:09
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+2
22.4%
CJ Beasley run for 2 yds to the CCU 42Similar
Q3 10:09
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+5
22.6%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Kyre Duplessis for 5 yds to the CCU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
22.2%
Grayson McCall pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:09
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+5
22.3%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 5 yds to the ARST 48Similar
Q3 10:09
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+10
22.2%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Kyre Duplessis for 10 yds to the ARST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
21.7%
Grayson McCall pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:09
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+3
21.8%
CJ Beasley run for 3 yds to the ARST 35Similar
Q3 10:09
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+6
22.0%
Grayson McCall run for 6 yds to the ARST 29Similar
Q3 10:09
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+3
22.7%
CJ Beasley run for 3 yds to the ARST 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-9
19.7%
Grayson McCall sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the ARST 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:2828% → 25%
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
28.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:44
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-8
27.1%
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Joah Cash for a loss of 8 yards to the ARST 32Similar
Q3 4:44
3RD & 18
OWN 32
+7
24.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Emmanual Stevenson for 7 yds to the ARST 39Similar
Q3 3:16
4TH & 11
OWN 39
0
24.8%
William Przystup punt for 42 yds , returns for no gain to the CCU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 2:0877% → 75%
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
22.8%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Braydon Bennett for a loss of 1 yard to the CCU 20Similar
Q3 3:16
2ND & 11
OWN 20
0
23.2%
Grayson McCall run for no gain to the CCU 20Similar
Q3 3:16
3RD & 11
OWN 20
+5
24.0%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Matt Alaimo for 5 yds to the CCU 25Similar
Q3 1:08
4TH & 6
OWN 25
0
24.6%
Evan Crenshaw punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 22 yds · 1:5027% → 24%
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+22
26.5%
Jaylen Raynor run for 22 yds to the ARST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
29.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+3
27.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 3 yds to the CCU 49Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 49
-3
27.1%
Jaylen Raynor run for a loss of 3 yards to the ARST 48Similar
Q4 14:18
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
24.0%
William Przystup punt for 43 yds, fair catch by CJ Beasley at the CCU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 18FG
14 plays · 86 yds · 4:2479% → 89%
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+12
20.9%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Matt Alaimo for 12 yds to the CCU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
20.5%
CJ Beasley run for no gain to the CCU 21Similar
Q4 14:18
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+5
20.8%
Grayson McCall pass complete to CJ Beasley for 5 yds to the CCU 26Similar
Q4 14:18
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+26
20.3%
Grayson McCall pass complete to CJ Beasley for 26 yds to the ARST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
16.5%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Kyre Duplessis for 12 yds to the ARST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
16.3%
Kyre Duplessis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+9
16.4%
Arkansas State Penalty, Personal Foul (Trevian Thomas) to the ARST 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
15.6%
Reese White run for 3 yds to the ARST 10Similar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+2
15.6%
Ethan Vasko run for 2 yds to the ARST 8Similar
Q4 9:58
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+3
14.1%
Jarrett Guest run for 3 yds to the ARST 5Similar
Q4 9:54
4TH & 2
OPP 5
+22
11.3%
Kade Hensley 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:0111% → 10%
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
11.1%
Chauncy Cobb run for 8 yds to the ARST 33Similar
Q4 9:54
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+20
11.7%
Jaylen Raynor run for 20 yds to the CCU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
13.0%
Zak Wallace run for 3 yds to the CCU 44Similar
Q4 9:54
2ND & 7
OPP 44
-15
13.1%
Arkansas State Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Eddie Smith) to the ARST 41Similar
Q4 9:54
3RD & 22
OWN 41
0
10.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:53
4TH & 22
OWN 41
0
9.8%
William Przystup punt for 53 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 20END OF GAME
7 plays · 0 yds · 7:5390% → 96%
Q4 7:53
2ND & 10
OWN 13
-1
10.5%
CJ Beasley run for a loss of 1 yard to the CCU 12Similar
Q4 7:53
3RD & 11
OWN 12
-5
11.1%
Coastal Carolina Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the CCU 7Similar
Q4 7:53
3RD & 16
OWN 7
+6
10.0%
Jarrett Guest pass complete to CJ Beasley for 6 yds to the CCU 13Similar
Q4 5:33
4TH & 10
OWN 13
0
9.3%
Evan Crenshaw punt for 51 ydsSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
3.7%
CJ Beasley run for no gain to the CCU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 21INT
3 plays · 15 yds · 0:467% → 5%
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
7.1%
Jaylen Raynor run for 15 yds to the CCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
7.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:47
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
4.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 22TD
3 plays · 37 yds · 0:5594% → 98%
Q4 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+34
6.2%
Max Balthazar run for 34 yds to the ARST 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
1.5%
Jarrett Guest run for 3 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK)Similar
Q4 3:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
1.7%
Reese White run for no gain to the ARST 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 23TD
5 plays · 72 yds · 1:051% → 4%
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+13
0.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 13 yds to the ARST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
1.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Emmanual Stevenson for 5 yds to the ARST 46Similar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+34
1.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 34 yds to the CCU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
3.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 20 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 24MISSED FG
7 plays · 5 yds · 0:4596% → 97%
Q4 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
4.0%
CJ Beasley run for 1 yd to the ARST 30Similar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 9
OPP 30
0
3.1%
CJ Beasley run for no gain to the ARST 30Similar
Q4 2:05
3RD & 9
OPP 30
+4
3.2%
CJ Beasley run for 4 yds to the ARST 26Similar
Q4 1:56
4TH & 5
OPP 26
+43
2.6%
Kade Hensley 43 yd FG BLOCKED blocked bySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 25DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:303% → 2%
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
2.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-10
2.7%
RAYNOR, Jaylen pass short to the right incomplete thrown to the CCU40. PENALTY ASU Holding on CUNNINGHAM, Jalen enforced 10 yards from the CCU45 to the ASU45 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 20
OWN 45
0
2.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:56
3RD & 20
OWN 45
+19
2.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 19 yds to the CCU 36Similar
Q4 1:26
4TH & 1
OPP 36
0
2.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 26END OF GAME
2 plays · -4 yds · 1:2698% → 98%
Q4 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
2.3%
[NHSG] Kneel down by CCU at CCU34 (team loss of 2).Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 34
0
2.4%
[NHSG] Kneel down by CCU at CCU32 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:30
Grayson McCall pass complete to Kendall Karr for 7 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK)
-15.9
TD · Q3 10:09
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Emmanual Stevenson for 10 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)
+12.1
FG · Q4 9:54
Kade Hensley 22 yd FG GOOD
-5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com