Try the model
TXST

Texas State 23 at Coastal Carolina 31

CCU
2023 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2023 · Brooks Stadium (SC)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · CCU
modelCCU aheadTXST aheadconfidence bandkey playCCU scoreTXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:06 · Ethan Vasko pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorTime remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 110Home team on offense+24.0Score differential+10.9Garbage-time factor+10.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.9Pregame prior−0.9Time remaining−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:18: Ethan Vasko pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 25 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK) — CCU win probability +6.4 pts (now 58%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:57: Braydon Bennett run for 6 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK) — CCU win probability +15.3 pts (now 75%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:16: Reese White run for 2 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK) — CCU win probability +13.6 pts (now 91%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 3:37: Malik Hornsby run for 8 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK) — TXST win probability +4.7 pts (now 7%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:44: Malik Hornsby run for 4 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley PAT MISSED) — TXST win probability +9.0 pts (now 16%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CCU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7TXST made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 8:54CCU 4th & 12 at CCU 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.8%−0.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:03TXST 4th & 8 at TXST 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.4%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:08TXST 4th & 6 at CCU 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.1%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.3%
    91% to make
    Punt
    50.6%−2.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:44CCU 4th & 5 at CCU 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.7%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:29TXST 4th & 11 at TXST 37, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.0%−0.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:54TXST 4th & 9 at TXST 25, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.1%−1.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:59TXST 4th & 13 at TXST 20, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.8%−1.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:16CCU 4th & 2 at TXST 2, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    75.9%−2.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    67.6%−10.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:46TXST 4th & 2 at TXST 33, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:06CCU 4th & 2 at TXST 11, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    92.3%−0.7
    87% to make
    Punt
    88.2%−4.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:48TXST 4th & 17 at TXST 4, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.2%−2.8
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:07CCU 4th & 2 at TXST 41, up 18
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    94.2%−1.4
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.4%−1.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:47TXST 4th & 7 at CCU 39, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    4.9%−0.5
    36% to make
    Punt
    4.9%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:16CCU 4th & 5 at TXST 8, up 18
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.7%−<0.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    94.1%−2.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:16TXST 4th & 1 at CCU 26, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    1.5%−0.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−1.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:37TXST 4th & 3 at CCU 16, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.7%−0.2
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    4.9%
    81% to make
    Punt
    2.4%−2.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:17CCU 4th & 1 at TXST 29, up 8
    Close callWent for it · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.2%−0.3
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    94.4%
    58% to make
    Punt
    91.8%−2.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CCU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TXST made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 11:14TXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:39CCU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:18CCU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:57CCU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:16CCU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:37TXST Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.9%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.9%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:44TXST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    4.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:4653% → 54%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
46.7%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 18 yds to the TXST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+18
46.7%
Ismail Mahdi run for 18 yds to the CCU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
46.7%
Ismail Mahdi run for a loss of 1 yard to the CCU 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+13
46.7%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 13 yds to the CCU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
46.7%
Ismail Mahdi run for 3 yds to the CCU 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+17
46.7%
Ismail Mahdi run for 17 yds to the CCU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
46.7%
Ismail Mahdi run for 2 yds to the CCU 5Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
46.7%
TJ Finley run for 4 yds to the CCU 1Similar
Q1 11:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
45.7%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 1 yd for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 2:1546% → 45%
Q1 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-7
46.2%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Sam Pinckney for a loss of 7 yards to the CCU 17Similar
Q1 11:09
2ND & 17
OWN 17
+3
46.1%
Reese White run for 3 yds to the CCU 20Similar
Q1 11:09
3RD & 14
OWN 20
+2
46.0%
Ethan Vasko run for 2 yds to the CCU 22Similar
Q1 8:54
4TH & 12
OWN 22
0
45.2%
Evan Crenshaw punt for 53 yds , Kole Wilson returns for no gain to the TXST 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5155% → 54%
Q1 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
45.4%
Ismail Mahdi run for 2 yds to the TXST 33Similar
Q1 8:54
2ND & 8
OWN 33
0
45.3%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:54
3RD & 8
OWN 33
0
45.6%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:03
4TH & 8
OWN 33
0
45.6%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 4TD
12 plays · 70 yds · 3:2446% → 50%
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
45.6%
Ethan Vasko pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+11
45.5%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 11 yds to the CCU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
46.0%
Texas State Penalty, Roughing the Passer on MAIN, Chance enforced (Chance Main) to the TXST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
46.4%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Jared Brown for 5 yds to the TXST 39Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+15
46.4%
WHITE, Reese rush to the right for no gain to the TSU39 (FOSTER, JR., Dan;WEBB, Terry). PENALTY TSU Face mask on WEBB, Terry enforced 15 yards from the TSU39 to the TSU24 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
46.7%
Reese White run for 9 yds to the TXST 15Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 1
OPP 15
0
46.7%
Reese White run for no gain to the TXST 15Similar
Q1 8:03
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+2
46.3%
Reese White run for 2 yds to the TXST 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
46.7%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Jared Brown for 5 yds to the TXST 8Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 5
OPP 8
0
46.7%
Ethan Vasko pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:03
3RD & 5
OPP 8
0
46.3%
VASKO, Ethan pass to the right incomplete intended for TUCKER, Jameson thrown to the TSU0. PENALTY TSU Offsides enforced half the distance from the goal, 4 yards from the TSU8 to the TSU4 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:39
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+4
49.9%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Kendall Karr for 4 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5FG
10 plays · 72 yds · 4:2651% → 53%
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
48.7%
TJ Finley pass complete to Donerio Davenport for 4 yds to the TXST 26Similar
Q1 4:34
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+1
48.6%
Donerio Davenport run for 1 yd to the TXST 27Similar
Q1 4:34
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+13
49.0%
TJ Finley run for 13 yds to the TXST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
48.1%
Donerio Davenport run for no gain to the TXST 40Similar
Q1 4:34
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+9
48.3%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 9 yds to the TXST 49Similar
Q1 4:34
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+43
47.9%
Donerio Davenport run for 43 yds to the CCU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
47.2%
Donerio Davenport run for no gain to the CCU 8Similar
Q1 4:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
47.2%
Ismail Mahdi run for 3 yds to the CCU 5Similar
Q1 4:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
47.6%
TJ Finley sacked by Will Whitson for a loss of 1 yard to the CCU 6Similar
Q1 0:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
47.4%
Mason Shipley 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1648% → 47%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-1
47.6%
Braydon Bennett run for a loss of 1 yard to the CCU 16Similar
Q2 14:21
2ND & 11
OWN 16
+5
48.0%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Jared Brown for 5 yds to the CCU 21Similar
Q2 14:21
3RD & 6
OWN 21
+1
47.5%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Jared Brown for 1 yd to the CCU 22Similar
Q2 13:44
4TH & 5
OWN 22
0
47.3%
Evan Crenshaw punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Kole Wilson at the TXST 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:1553% → 52%
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
46.7%
Ismail Mahdi run for 2 yds to the TXST 40Similar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 8
OWN 40
0
46.5%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:44
3RD & 8
OWN 40
-3
47.1%
TJ Finley sacked by Will Whitson for a loss of 3 yards to the TXST 37Similar
Q2 12:29
4TH & 11
OWN 37
0
48.5%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 8TD
11 plays · 82 yds · 4:1148% → 58%
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
48.3%
Ethan Vasko run for 3 yds to the CCU 21Similar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+5
48.3%
Reese White run for 5 yds to the CCU 26Similar
Q2 12:29
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+14
48.0%
Blake Boda pass complete to Jameson Tucker for 14 yds to the CCU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
49.9%
Reese White run for a loss of 1 yard to the CCU 39 Reese White fumbled, recovered by CCU Reese White [NHSG] WHITE, Reese rush up the middle for a loss of 1 yard, WHITE, Reese fumbled at CCU40 , recovered by CCU WHITE, Reese at the CCU39, returned 0 yards to the CCU39, End of Play.Similar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+15
49.0%
BODA, Blake pass deep to the right incomplete intended for PINCKNEY, Sam thrown to the TSU45. PENALTY TSU Roughing the Passer on FOSTER, JR., Dan enforced 15 yards from the CCU39 to the TSU46 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-2
50.6%
CJ Beasley run for a loss of 2 yards to the TXST 48Similar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 12
OPP 48
0
49.4%
Ethan Vasko pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:29
3RD & 12
OPP 48
-5
48.9%
Coastal Carolina Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CCU 47Similar
Q2 12:29
3RD & 17
OWN 47
+28
48.1%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Jared Brown for 28 yds to the TXST 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
51.4%
Bryson Graves run for no gain to the TXST 25Similar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+25
57.8%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 25 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:1744% → 39%
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
56.1%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 1 yd to the TXST 25Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+5
59.2%
Ismail Mahdi run for 5 yds to the TXST 30Similar
Q2 7:10
3RD & 4
OWN 30
0
59.1%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:10
4TH & 4
OWN 30
-5
60.3%
Texas State Penalty, Delay Of Game (Seamus O'Kelly) to the TXST 25Similar
Q2 6:54
4TH & 9
OWN 25
0
60.9%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 33 yds , returns for no gain to the CCU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 10TD
11 plays · 70 yds · 4:5757% → 75%
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
57.3%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Braydon Bennett for no gain to the CCU 30Similar
Q2 6:54
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+13
56.9%
Braydon Bennett run for 13 yds to the CCU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
58.5%
Braydon Bennett run for 1 yd to the CCU 44Similar
Q2 6:54
2ND & 9
OWN 44
0
58.4%
Ethan Vasko pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:54
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+15
57.1%
VASKO, Ethan pass deep to the right incomplete intended for BROWN, Jared thrown to the TSU30. PENALTY TSU Pass Interference on HOLTON, Shawn enforced 15 yards to the TSU41 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-3
59.2%
Ethan Vasko sacked by Alonzo Edwards Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the TXST 44Similar
Q2 6:54
2ND & 13
OPP 44
+16
58.1%
Ethan Vasko run for 16 yds to the TXST 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
60.1%
Ethan Vasko pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:54
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+3
60.0%
Braydon Bennett run for 3 yds to the TXST 25Similar
Q2 6:54
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+19
59.1%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 19 yds to the TXST 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
74.5%
Braydon Bennett run for 6 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:5327% → 26%
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
72.7%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 4 yds to the TXST 27Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 6
OWN 27
-7
72.5%
TJ Finley sacked by Micheal Mason and Wyatt Gedeon for a loss of 7 yards to the TXST 20Similar
Q2 1:20
3RD & 13
OWN 20
0
73.5%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:59
4TH & 13
OWN 20
0
74.2%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 55 yds, downed at the CCU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 12END OF HALF
5 plays · 14 yds · 0:5973% → 74%
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
73.2%
Ethan Vasko pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
73.1%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 13 yds to the CCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
73.7%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Kendall Karr for 5 yds to the CCU 43Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 43
-4
74.4%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Max Balthazar for a loss of 4 yards to the CCU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 13TD
13 plays · 94 yds · 7:3272% → 91%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+20
72.0%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 20 yds to the CCU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
72.4%
Braydon Bennett run for no gain to the CCU 26 Braydon Bennett fumbled, recovered by CCU Kendall Karr [NHSG] BENNETT, Braydon rush to the left for no gain, BENNETT, Braydon fumbled at CCU25 forced by HOLLOWAY, Brian, recovered by CCU KARR, Kendall at the CCU26, returned 0 yards to the CCU26, End of Play.Similar
Q3 14:48
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+1
72.3%
Reese White run for 1 yd to the CCU 27Similar
Q3 14:48
3RD & 9
OWN 27
+9
71.4%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Jared Brown for 9 yds to the CCU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
73.0%
Ethan Vasko pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:48
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+9
72.6%
Jared Brown run for 9 yds to the CCU 45Similar
Q3 14:48
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+13
72.7%
Reese White run for 13 yds to the TXST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
73.9%
CJ Beasley run for 6 yds to the TXST 36Similar
Q3 10:06
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+16
77.7%
CJ Beasley run for 16 yds to the TXST 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
77.7%
Reese White run for 5 yds to the TXST 4Similar
Q3 10:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
77.7%
Reese White run for 1 yd to the TXST 3Similar
Q3 10:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
77.0%
Reese White run for 1 yd to the TXST 2Similar
Q3 7:16
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
90.6%
Reese White run for 2 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 14DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3011% → 10%
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
88.9%
Malik Hornsby run for 3 yds to the TXST 28Similar
Q3 7:16
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
88.4%
Malik Hornsby run for 1 yd to the TXST 29Similar
Q3 7:16
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+4
88.7%
Malik Hornsby run for 4 yds to the TXST 33Similar
Q3 5:46
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
89.9%
Malik Hornsby run for no gain to the TXST 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 15DOWNS
7 plays · 22 yds · 3:4092% → 93%
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
92.2%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Max Balthazar for 6 yds to the TXST 27Similar
Q3 5:46
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+3
92.2%
Max Balthazar run for 3 yds to the TXST 24Similar
Q3 5:46
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+5
92.1%
Max Balthazar run for 5 yds to the TXST 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
92.2%
Ethan Vasko pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:46
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+8
92.2%
Max Balthazar run for 8 yds to the TXST 11Similar
Q3 5:46
3RD & 2
OPP 11
0
92.0%
Max Balthazar run for no gain to the TXST 11Similar
Q3 2:06
4TH & 2
OPP 11
0
93.2%
Ethan Vasko pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:188% → 7%
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-1
92.2%
Ismail Mahdi run for a loss of 1 yard to the TXST 10Similar
Q3 2:06
2ND & 11
OWN 10
+4
92.3%
Ismail Mahdi run for 4 yds to the TXST 14Similar
Q3 2:06
3RD & 7
OWN 14
-6
92.4%
Texas State Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-6 Yards) to the TXST 4Similar
Q3 0:48
4TH & 17
OWN 4
0
93.5%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Tobias Fletcher at the TXST 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:4195% → 95%
Q3 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
94.7%
Ethan Vasko run for 3 yds to the TXST 46Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+6
95.4%
CJ Beasley run for 6 yds to the TXST 40Similar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 1
OPP 40
-1
95.4%
CJ Beasley run for a loss of 1 yard to the TXST 41Similar
Q4 14:07
4TH & 2
OPP 41
0
95.2%
punt blocked by Tavian Coleman blocked by Tavian Coleman Punt by CRENSHAW, Evan at the TSU41 is blocked by COLEMAN, Tavian, recovered by CCU MCDONALD, Will at the CCU42, returned 0 yards to the CCU42, End of Play, clock 14:07.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 18DOWNS
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:207% → 6%
Q4 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
93.0%
Malik Hornsby run for 2 yds to the CCU 40Similar
Q4 14:07
2ND & 8
OPP 40
-1
93.0%
Donerio Davenport run for a loss of 1 yard to the CCU 41Similar
Q4 14:07
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+2
93.1%
Malik Hornsby run for 2 yds to the CCU 39Similar
Q4 12:47
4TH & 7
OPP 39
0
93.8%
Malik Hornsby pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 19FG
7 plays · 53 yds · 3:3196% → 99%
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
96.3%
Ja'Vin Simpkins run for 3 yds to the CCU 42Similar
Q4 12:47
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+19
96.3%
Jared Brown run for 19 yds to the TXST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
96.4%
Texas State Penalty, Illegal use of the hands on BELL, Ben enforced (Ben Bell) to the TXST 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-2
96.4%
Ethan Vasko run for a loss of 2 yards to the TXST 15Similar
Q4 12:47
2ND & 12
OPP 15
+7
96.3%
Ja'Vin Simpkins run for 7 yds to the TXST 8Similar
Q4 12:47
3RD & 5
OPP 8
0
96.3%
Ethan Vasko pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:16
4TH & 5
OPP 8
+25
99.0%
Kade Hensley 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 20TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:392% → 7%
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
98.5%
Ismail Mahdi run for 4 yds to the TXST 29Similar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
98.4%
Ismail Mahdi run for 2 yds to the TXST 31Similar
Q4 9:16
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+15
98.4%
Malik Hornsby run for 15 yds to the TXST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
98.4%
Ismail Mahdi run for 2 yds to the TXST 48Similar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+6
98.4%
Malik Hornsby run for 6 yds to the CCU 46Similar
Q4 9:16
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+11
98.4%
Ismail Mahdi run for 11 yds to the CCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
98.2%
Malik Hornsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+4
98.2%
Malik Hornsby pass complete to Ismail Mahdi for 4 yds to the CCU 31Similar
Q4 9:16
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+5
98.3%
Malik Hornsby run for 5 yds to the CCU 26Similar
Q4 9:16
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+2
98.2%
Ismail Mahdi run for 2 yds to the CCU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
98.1%
Ismail Mahdi run for 1 yd to the CCU 23Similar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 9
OPP 23
-4
98.1%
Malik Hornsby run for a loss of 4 yards to the CCU 27Similar
Q4 9:16
3RD & 13
OPP 27
0
98.3%
HORNSBY, Malik pass deep to the right incomplete intended for HAWKINS, Ashtyn thrown to the CCU0. PENALTY CCU Pass Interference on LUSK, Keonte enforced half the distance from the goal, 13 yards to the CCU14 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
98.1%
Ismail Mahdi run for 5 yds to the CCU 8Similar
Q4 3:37
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+8
93.4%
Malik Hornsby run for 8 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 21TD
10 plays · 51 yds · 2:536% → 16%
Q4 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+18
94.1%
Malik Hornsby pass complete to Konner Fox for 18 yds to the CCU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
93.7%
Malik Hornsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:37
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+7
93.8%
Ismail Mahdi run for 7 yds to the CCU 26Similar
Q4 3:37
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+3
93.6%
Ismail Mahdi run for 3 yds to the CCU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
93.4%
Malik Hornsby run for no gain to the CCU 23Similar
Q4 3:37
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+7
93.8%
Malik Hornsby pass complete to Kole Wilson for 7 yds to the CCU 16Similar
Q4 3:37
3RD & 3
OPP 16
0
93.6%
Malik Hornsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:37
4TH & 3
OPP 16
+6
94.0%
Malik Hornsby run for 6 yds to the CCU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
93.4%
Ismail Mahdi run for 6 yds to the CCU 4Similar
Q4 0:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
84.4%
Malik Hornsby run for 4 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 22DOWNS
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:1897% → 97%
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
97.1%
CJ Beasley run for no gain to the TXST 38Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+3
97.5%
CJ Beasley run for 3 yds to the TXST 35Similar
Q4 0:22
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+6
97.5%
CJ Beasley run for 6 yds to the TXST 29Similar
Q4 0:17
4TH & 1
OPP 29
0
97.2%
CJ Beasley run for no gain to the TXST 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 23END OF GAME
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:175% → 6%
Q4 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
94.8%
Malik Hornsby run for 6 yds to the TXST 35Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+3
94.4%
Malik Hornsby pass complete to Konner Fox for 3 yds to the TXST 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:57
Braydon Bennett run for 6 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK)
+15.3
TD · Q3 7:16
Reese White run for 2 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK)
+13.6
TD · Q4 0:44
Malik Hornsby run for 4 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley PAT MISSED)
-9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com