2023 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2023 · Brooks Stadium (SC)
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Win probability · CCU
modelCCU aheadDUQ aheadconfidence bandkey playCCU scoreDUQ score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:00 · Jahbari Kuykendall run for 2 yds to the DUQ 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 11:39: Grayson McCall pass complete to Kendall Karr for 20 yds for a TD (Liam Gray KICK) — DUQ win probability +0.1 pts (now 2%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 2:47: Grayson McCall pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 11 yds for a TD (Liam Gray KICK) — CCU win probability +0.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 14:33: Braydon Bennett run for 1 yd for a TD (Liam Gray KICK) — CCU win probability +0.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 8:40: Liam Gray 28 yd FG GOOD — DUQ win probability +0.3 pts (now 1%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:27: CJ Beasley run for 10 yds for a TD (Liam Gray KICK) — CCU win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CCU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2DUQ made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
- Q1 13:14DUQ 4th & 9 at DUQ 36, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 2.4% before the snapGo for it2.3%−0.131% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.4%average punt
- Q1 9:09DUQ 4th & 2 at CCU 48, down 14Close callPunted · 2.6% before the snapGo for it2.6%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.5%−0.1average punt
- Q2 12:57DUQ 4th & 4 at DUQ 31, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snapGo for it1.1%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.2%average punt
- Q2 8:40CCU 4th & 8 at DUQ 10, up 28Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.8% before the snapGo for it98.8%−<0.128% to convertField goalTheir call98.8%88% to makePunt98.4%−0.4average punt
- Q3 13:52DUQ 4th & 9 at DUQ 26, down 52Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 8:40DUQ 4th & 8 at DUQ 27, down 59Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 6:26DUQ 4th & 6 at CCU 23, down 59Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−<0.139% to convertField goal0.1%70% to makePunt-0.3%−0.4average punt
- Q4 15:00DUQ 4th & 12 at CCU 29, down 59Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call-0.0%−0.123% to convertField goal0.1%58% to makePunt-0.3%−0.3average punt
- Q4 8:10DUQ 4th & 14 at CCU 14, down 59Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.116% to convertField goalTheir call0.0%84% to makePunt-0.2%−0.2average punt
- Q4 5:00CCU 4th & 7 at DUQ 23, up 59Close callWent for it · 100.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%−<0.136% to convertField goal99.9%70% to makePunt99.6%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CCU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9DUQ made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 11:39CCU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.6%97% to makeGo for two97.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 10:49CCU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.6%97% to makeGo for two97.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:47CCU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.1%97% to makeGo for two98.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:33CCU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.0%97% to makeGo for two99.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:27CCU Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:43CCU Touchdown, up 44 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 14:45CCU Touchdown, up 51 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:53CCU Touchdown, up 58 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:26DUQ Touchdown, down 53 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.3%97% to makeGo for two0.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:02CCU Touchdown, up 58 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartDUQDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 18 yds · 1:412% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 2TD4 plays · 33 yds · 1:3598% → 98%
DUQDrive 3INT TD2 plays · 0 yds · 0:502% → 2%
DUQDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 27 yds · 1:402% → 2%
CCUDrive 5TD12 plays · 83 yds · 6:2298% → 98%
Q1 9:09
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+15
98.2%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jameson Tucker for 15 yds to the CCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
98.2%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jameson Tucker for 4 yds to the DUQ 47Similar
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
98.2%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Max Balthazar for 4 yds to the DUQ 35Similar
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
98.2%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Tyson Mobley for 7 yds to the DUQ 19Similar
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
98.4%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 11 yds for a TD (Liam Gray KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 6FUMBLE3 plays · 50 yds · 1:212% → 2%
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
98.4%
Darius Perrantes pass complete to Keshawn Brown for 3 yds to the DUQ 28Similar
Q1 2:47
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
98.4%
Darius Perrantes pass complete to Darryl Powell Jr. for 10 yds to the DUQ 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+37
98.4%
Darius Perrantes pass complete to Keshawn Brown for 37 yds Keshawn Brown fumbled, recovered by CCU Mason SheltonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 7TD6 plays · 79 yds · 1:1898% → 99%
DUQDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:361% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 9FG12 plays · 47 yds · 4:1799% → 99%
Q2 12:57
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+31
99.0%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 31 yds to the DUQ 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:57
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+4
99.0%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jared Brown for 4 yds to the DUQ 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-5
99.1%
MCCALL, Grayson pass to the left incomplete intended for BROWN, Jared thrown to the DUQ0. PENALTY CCU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on LINDSAY, Zovon enforced 5 yards from the DUQ12 to the DUQ17 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:57
1ST & 15
OPP 17
-10
99.1%
BEASLEY, CJ rush up the middle for a gain of 6 yards to the DUQ11 (BARNES, CJ). PENALTY CCU Holding on ELAM, Zac enforced 10 yards from the DUQ17 to the DUQ27 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:57
3RD & 22
OPP 24
+14
99.0%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Braydon Bennett for 14 yds to the DUQ 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 10INT9 plays · 11 yds · 2:531% → 1%
Q2 8:40
3RD & 17
OWN 31
+5
99.1%
Coastal Carolina Penalty, Offsides (Ja'Quon Griffin) to the DUQ 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 11TD4 plays · 20 yds · 1:2099% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 12INT TD10 plays · 47 yds · 3:440% → 0%
Q2 4:27
2ND & 13
OWN 33
+13
99.6%
Darius Perrantes pass complete to Keshawn Brown for 13 yds to the DUQ 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:27
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+12
99.6%
Darius Perrantes pass complete to Tedy Afful for 12 yds to the CCU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+14
99.6%
Darius Perrantes pass complete to Darryl Powell Jr. for 14 yds to the CCU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 13END OF HALF1 play · 8 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 14TD1 play · 64 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+64
99.8%
Jarrett Guest pass complete to Kyre Duplessis for 64 yds for a TD (Liam Gray KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 15PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:530% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 16TD7 plays · 71 yds · 2:59100% → 100%
DUQDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 2:130% → 0%
DUQDrive 18TD6 plays · 27 yds · 2:140% → 0%
CCUDrive 19TD7 plays · 66 yds · 4:17100% → 100%
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
99.8%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Max Balthazar for 1 yd to the CCU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 20MISSED FG16 plays · 61 yds · 8:520% → 0%
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 24
-10
99.9%
ROBINSON, Edward rush to the left for a gain of 8 yards to the CCU16 (PINKNEY, Tre'). PENALTY DUQ Holding on O'NEIL, Ethan enforced 10 yards from the CCU24 to the CCU34 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 18
OPP 35
+6
100.0%
Matthew Robinson pass complete to Logan Lutz for 6 yds to the CCU 29Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 12
OPP 29
+22
99.9%
Matthew Robinson pass complete to Jalin Cooper for 22 yds to the CCU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 21DOWNS6 plays · 59 yds · 3:10100% → 100%
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
99.9%
Duquesne Penalty, Targeting on STEVEN ROBINSON III, Mike enforced (Mike Steven Robinson III) to the CCU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 22END OF GAME7 plays · 54 yds · 5:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 14:33
Braydon Bennett run for 1 yd for a TD (Liam Gray KICK)
+0.6
FG · Q2 8:40
Liam Gray 28 yd FG GOOD
-0.3
TD · Q1 2:47
Grayson McCall pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 11 yds for a TD (Liam Gray KICK)
+0.2