Boise State

Profile vs. FBS, 2023

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2177th
  Defense+0.1243rd
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense47.1%87th
  Defense41.3%58th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2228th
  Defense+1.3420th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.2086th
  Defense+0.1041st
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.3580th
  Defense+0.2152nd
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense52.3%86th
  Defense45.9%63rd
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense34.0%74th
  Defense31.9%30th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.4996th
  Defense3.0554th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense14.9%70th
  Defense18.8%67th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense14.1%84th
  Defense17.1%61st

Percentiles among the 133 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2023

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Boise State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   WASH
2. L
   UCF
3. W
   UND
4. W
   SDSU
5. L
   MEM
6. W
   SJSU
7. L
   CSU
8. W
   WYO
9. L
   FRES
10. W
    UNM
11. W
    USU
12. W
    AF
13. W
    UNLV
14. L
    UCLA

Bars above the line: better than expected for Boise State.

Players, 2023

1. Taylen GreenQB215 plays · +0.284 pts/play · 81st of 250 QBs
   1.14WAR0.72 to 1.64
2. Ashton JeantyRB222 plays · +0.197 pts/play · 2nd of 383 RBs
   0.82WAR0.60 to 1.02
3. Maddux MadsenQB124 plays · +0.235 pts/play · 123rd of 250 QBs
   0.55WAR0.23 to 0.80
4. George HolaniRB109 plays · +0.135 pts/play · 80th of 383 RBs
   0.28WAR0.17 to 0.38
5. Eric McAlisterWR43 plays · +0.242 pts/play · 78th of 457 WRs
   0.20WAR0.08 to 0.31
6. Jonah DalmasPK21 plays · +0.476 pts/play · 3rd of 113 kickers
   0.19WAR0.13 to 0.24
7. James Ferguson-ReynoldsP45 plays · +0.182 pts/play · 16th of 103 punters
   0.15WAR0.07 to 0.23
8. Stefan CobbsWR21 plays · +0.100 pts/play · 311th of 457 WRs
   0.04WAR−0.01 to 0.08

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Boise State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2023

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  58058072nd of 130Roster talent: 580, 72nd of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  17117168th of 130Recruiting: 171, 68th of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  92%92%3rd of 128Returning production: 92%, 3rd of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +5.9+5.944th of 130SP+ rating: +5.9, 44th of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2023

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Boise State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 5 clear-cut ones account for 0.11 of the 0.14 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at MEMQ3 1:43 4th & 1 at MEM 7, up 3Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−5.8 pts
2. at FRESQ4 14:54 4th & 12 at BOIS 40, down 10Went for it; the numbers favored punting−1.8 pts
3. vs AFQ4 4:31 4th & 5 at AF 35, up 5Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.4 pts
4. at MEMQ4 13:08 4th & 8 at MEM 38, down 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.1 pts
5. at FRESQ4 0:31 4th & 1 at FRES 34, down 10Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.0 pts
6. at UNLVQ2 0:21 4th & 1 at BOIS 46, up 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts
7. at UNLVQ2 0:21 4th & 1 at BOIS 46, up 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts
8. at MEMQ1 6:09 4th & 2 at MEM 2, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2023

87th of 133 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Boise State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   WASH
2. L

   UCF
3. W

   UND
4. W

   SDSU
5. L

   MEM
6. W

   SJSU
7. L

   CSU
8. W

   WYO
9. L

   FRES
10. W

    UNM
11. W

    USU
12. W

    AF
13. W

    UNLV
14. L

    UCLA

What moved it, 2023

Every game starts at Boise State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+0.09
• Possession & field position−0.02
• Timeouts+0.01
• Other−0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.51

Game by game

• WASHL 19-56 at WASH16% → 0%Before kickoff −34 · On the field −16: Scoreboard −20
• UCFL 16-18 vs UCF39% → 11%Before kickoff −11 · On the field −28: Scoreboard −43, Clock −2
• UNDW 42-18 vs UND84% → 100%Before kickoff +34 · On the field +16: Scoreboard +19, Clock −1
• SDSUW 34-31 at SDSU67% → 95%Before kickoff +17 · On the field +28: Scoreboard +40, Clock +3
• MEML 32-35 at MEM41% → 4%Before kickoff −9 · On the field −37: Scoreboard −32, Timeouts −2
• SJSUW 35-27 vs SJSU75% → 99%Before kickoff +25 · On the field +24: Scoreboard +27, Possession & field position +1
• CSUL 30-31 at CSU69% → 5%Before kickoff +19 · On the field −64: Scoreboard −39, Possession & field position −2
• WYOW 32-7 vs WYO68% → 100%Before kickoff +18 · On the field +32: Scoreboard +31, Clock +2
• FRESL 30-37 at FRES51% → 3%Before kickoff +1 · On the field −48: Scoreboard −38, Timeouts −2
• UNMW 42-14 vs UNM97% → 100%Before kickoff +47 · On the field +3: Scoreboard +5
• USUW 45-10 at USU69% → 100%Before kickoff +19 · On the field +31: Scoreboard +37, Clock +1
• AFW 27-19 vs AF75% → 98%Before kickoff +25 · On the field +23: Scoreboard +26, Timeouts +2
• UNLVW 44-20 at UNLV66% → 100%Before kickoff +16 · On the field +34: Scoreboard +40, Clock +2
• UCLAL 22-35 vs UCLA43% → 2%Before kickoff −7 · On the field −41: Scoreboard −45, Clock −3

Points of win probability, from Boise State's side.

Closest call

BOIS 59-52 CSU (2017) - Boise State dropped to a 2.5% win probability before pulling it out.