Try the model
BOIS

Boise State 30 at Fresno State 37

FRES
2023 · Week 10 · Nov 4, 2023 · Valley Children's Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · FRES
modelFRES aheadBOIS aheadconfidence bandkey playFRES scoreBOIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGTDTDTDFGFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:56 · James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 57 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout marginTime remaining
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 96Home team on offense+9.6Garbage-time factor+1.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.5Score differential+3.7Blowout margin+0.8Time remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:07: Maddux Madsen pass complete to Billy Bowens for 2 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK) — BOIS win probability +8.9 pts (now 43%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q3 6:31: Elijah Gilliam run for 1 yd for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK) — FRES win probability +15.5 pts (now 91%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:35: George Holani run for 1 yd for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK) — BOIS win probability +10.5 pts (now 22%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 4:40: Maddux Madsen run for 27 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK) — BOIS win probability +30.8 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 1:49: Malik Sherrod run for 52 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK) — FRES win probability +6.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FRES made the numbers' call on 2 of 7BOIS made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 11:09BOIS 4th & 1 at BOIS 27, down 7
    Close callPunted · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:30FRES 4th & 11 at BOIS 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.3%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.5%
    56% to make
    Punt
    61.2%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:16BOIS 4th & 16 at FRES 28, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%−0.9
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.4%
    60% to make
    Punt
    33.0%−2.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:28FRES 4th & 2 at FRES 45, up 7
    Close callPunted · 63.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.7%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:15FRES 4th & 4 at BOIS 4, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.5%−0.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    62.9%−5.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:22FRES 4th & 9 at midfield, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.6%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:04BOIS 4th & 5 at BOIS 18, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.7%−0.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:56BOIS 4th & 3 at BOIS 22, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%−0.4
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 1:27FRES 4th & 1 at FRES 33, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.5%−1.6
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:54BOIS 4th & 12 at BOIS 40, down 10
    Numbers favored punt by 1.8 ptsWent for it · 14.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.5%−1.8
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    15.3%
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:42BOIS 4th & 5 at FRES 21, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.0%
    74% to make
    Punt
    9.4%−6.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:00FRES 4th & 2 at BOIS 6, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 86.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.6%−2.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    72.8%−12.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:52BOIS 4th & 10 at BOIS 3, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.5%−1.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:44FRES 4th & 7 at BOIS 45, up 10
    Close callPunted · 90.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    89.2%−1.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    90.0%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:31BOIS 4th & 1 at FRES 34, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.6%−1.0
    47% to make
    Punt
    4.8%−1.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FRES made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BOIS made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 12:11FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:07BOIS Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 6:31FRES Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    91.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:35BOIS Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 4:40BOIS Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.8%−1.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:49FRES Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FRESDrive 1TD
8 plays · 78 yds · 2:4449% → 51%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
49.4%
Malik Sherrod run for a loss of 1 yard to the FRES 21Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 11
OWN 21
+3
49.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 3 yds to the FRES 24Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 8
OWN 24
+23
49.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 23 yds to the FRES 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
49.4%
KEENE, Mikey pass deep to the right incomplete intended for BROOKS, Erik thrown to the BSU20. PENALTY BSU Offsides on SIMPSON, Andrew enforced 5 yards from the FST47 to the BSU48 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 5
OPP 48
+11
49.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 11 yds to the BOIS 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
49.4%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+12
49.4%
Malik Sherrod run for 12 yds to the BOIS 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
51.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Tre Watson for 25 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:5749% → 48%
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
51.0%
George Holani run for 5 yds to the BOIS 23Similar
Q1 12:06
2ND & 5
OWN 23
0
50.9%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:06
3RD & 5
OWN 23
+4
51.1%
Maddux Madsen run for 4 yds to the BOIS 27Similar
Q1 11:09
4TH & 1
OWN 27
0
51.7%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 3FG
9 plays · 35 yds · 3:3952% → 54%
Q1 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
51.7%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:09
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+8
51.7%
Malik Sherrod run for 8 yds to the FRES 43Similar
Q1 11:09
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+15
51.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Tre Watson for 15 yds to the BOIS 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
53.0%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+13
52.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 13 yds to the BOIS 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
53.0%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-1
53.0%
Malik Sherrod run for a loss of 1 yard to the BOIS 30Similar
Q1 9:50
3RD & 11
OPP 30
0
52.7%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for no gain to the BOIS 30Similar
Q1 7:30
4TH & 11
OPP 30
+48
53.6%
Dylan Lynch 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 4FG
11 plays · 43 yds · 5:0747% → 44%
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
53.4%
George Holani run for 6 yds to the BOIS 35Similar
Q1 7:23
2ND & 4
OWN 35
0
53.1%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:23
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+6
53.4%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Eric McAlister for 6 yds to the BOIS 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
53.1%
George Holani run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:23
2ND & 1
50
+18
52.7%
Kaden Dudley run for 18 yds to the FRES 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
52.5%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Eric McAlister for 4 yds to the FRES 28Similar
Q1 7:23
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+6
52.4%
Taylen Green run for 6 yds to the FRES 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
52.4%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:23
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+2
52.5%
George Holani run for 2 yds to the FRES 20Similar
Q1 7:23
3RD & 8
OPP 20
-8
52.9%
Maddux Madsen sacked by Devo Bridges for a loss of 8 yards to the FRES 28Similar
Q1 2:16
4TH & 16
OPP 28
+45
56.5%
Jonah Dalmas 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:4856% → 57%
Q1 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
56.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 12 yds to the FRES 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
56.8%
Malik Sherrod run for 8 yds to the FRES 45Similar
Q1 2:16
2ND & 2
OWN 45
0
57.4%
Malik Sherrod run for no gain to the FRES 45Similar
Q1 2:16
3RD & 2
OWN 45
0
56.9%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:28
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
57.2%
Carson King punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 6INT
13 plays · 66 yds · 5:5643% → 42%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+17
57.2%
George Holani run for 17 yds to the BOIS 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
56.9%
George Holani run for a loss of 1 yard to the BOIS 27Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 27
+7
57.2%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Kaden Dudley for 7 yds to the BOIS 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+6
57.0%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Eric McAlister for 6 yds to the BOIS 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
56.3%
GREEN, Taylen pass deep to the left incomplete intended for MCALISTER, Eric thrown to the FST15. PENALTY FST Pass Interference on NORRIS JR., Morice enforced 15 yards to the FST45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
55.5%
George Holani run for 7 yds to the FRES 38Similar
Q2 11:42
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+1
56.0%
Taylen Green run for 1 yd to the FRES 37Similar
Q2 11:42
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+2
56.2%
George Holani run for 2 yds to the FRES 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+12
55.3%
George Holani run for 12 yds to the FRES 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
55.1%
George Holani run for 1 yd to the FRES 22Similar
Q2 11:42
2ND & 9
OPP 22
-1
55.1%
Taylen Green sacked by Isaiah Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the FRES 23Similar
Q2 9:04
3RD & 10
OPP 23
0
57.8%
Maddux Madsen pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 7FG
11 plays · 68 yds · 1:4961% → 63%
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
60.5%
Elijah Gilliam run for 8 yds to the FRES 36Similar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+28
61.6%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 28 yds to the BOIS 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
62.5%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
62.3%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:04
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+14
61.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 14 yds to the BOIS 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+18
62.6%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Tre Watson for 18 yds to the BOIS 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
64.7%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
64.7%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
64.0%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
63.3%
Dylan Lynch 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 8INT
3 plays · 45 yds · 1:3435% → 37%
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+32
65.2%
Taylen Green pass complete to George Holani for 32 yds to the FRES 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+13
63.1%
Jambres Dubar run for 13 yds to the FRES 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
63.0%
Taylen Green pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 30 yds · 2:1265% → 66%
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
64.5%
Malik Sherrod run for 17 yds to the FRES 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
65.3%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 12 yds to the FRES 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-12
66.1%
Mikey Keene sacked by Ahmed Hassanein for a loss of 12 yards to the FRES 37Similar
Q2 5:34
2ND & 22
OWN 37
0
64.7%
Logan Fife pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:34
3RD & 22
OWN 37
+13
64.0%
Logan Fife pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 13 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 3:22
4TH & 9
50
0
65.6%
Carson King punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1832% → 28%
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-3
68.2%
George Holani run for a loss of 3 yards to the BOIS 10Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 13
OWN 10
+6
71.2%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Eric McAlister for 6 yds to the BOIS 16Similar
Q2 2:45
3RD & 7
OWN 16
+2
71.7%
Maddux Madsen run for 2 yds to the BOIS 18Similar
Q2 2:04
4TH & 5
OWN 18
0
72.5%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 11INT
2 plays · 11 yds · 0:2071% → 71%
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
71.2%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 11 yds to the BOIS 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
71.2%
Mikey Keene pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 12TD
15 plays · 64 yds · 1:3730% → 43%
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
70.2%
George Holani run for 5 yds to the BOIS 41Similar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+4
68.5%
Maddux Madsen run for 4 yds to the BOIS 45Similar
Q2 1:44
3RD & 1
OWN 45
-5
68.2%
Boise State Penalty, False Start (Ty Benefield) to the BOIS 40Similar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+13
70.2%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 13 yds to the FRES 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
68.0%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+13
69.2%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Eric McAlister for 13 yds to the FRES 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
66.4%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to George Holani for 8 yds to the FRES 26Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+5
65.9%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to George Holani for 5 yds to the FRES 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
66.4%
Maddux Madsen run for 4 yds to the FRES 17Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+15
66.4%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Billy Bowens for 15 yds to the FRES 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
65.9%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
66.4%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
57.5%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Billy Bowens for 2 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5828% → 26%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
72.5%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+7
72.7%
George Holani run for 7 yds to the BOIS 22Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 3
OWN 22
0
73.1%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:56
4TH & 3
OWN 22
0
74.5%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 57 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14TD
14 plays · 68 yds · 7:2574% → 91%
Q3 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
74.2%
Malik Sherrod run for 2 yds to the FRES 34Similar
Q3 13:56
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+4
74.1%
Elijah Gilliam run for 4 yds to the FRES 38Similar
Q3 13:56
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+4
74.2%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 4 yds to the FRES 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
75.3%
Malik Sherrod run for 3 yds to the FRES 45Similar
Q3 13:56
2ND & 7
OWN 45
0
75.3%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:56
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+13
74.2%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 13 yds to the BOIS 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
75.5%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Tim Grear Jr. for 5 yds to the BOIS 37Similar
Q3 13:56
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+2
75.5%
Elijah Gilliam run for 2 yds to the BOIS 35Similar
Q3 13:56
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+19
74.7%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 19 yds to the BOIS 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
75.5%
Elijah Gilliam run for 4 yds to the BOIS 12Similar
Q3 13:56
2ND & 6
OPP 12
0
75.5%
Elijah Gilliam run for no gain to the BOIS 12Similar
Q3 13:56
3RD & 6
OPP 12
+8
74.8%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 8 yds to the BOIS 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
75.5%
Malik Sherrod run for 3 yds to the BOIS 1Similar
Q3 6:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
91.0%
Elijah Gilliam run for 1 yd for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 15TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:5611% → 22%
Q3 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
88.9%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to George Holani for 2 yds to the BOIS 27Similar
Q3 6:31
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+35
88.7%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Eric McAlister for 35 yds to the FRES 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+33
89.6%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Austin Bolt for 33 yds to the FRES 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
88.5%
George Holani run for 2 yds to the FRES 3Similar
Q3 4:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
88.5%
George Holani run for 2 yds to the FRES 1Similar
Q3 3:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
77.9%
George Holani run for 1 yd for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:0281% → 82%
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
81.1%
Malik Sherrod run for 2 yds to the FRES 26Similar
Q3 3:29
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+7
81.2%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 7 yds to the FRES 33Similar
Q3 3:29
3RD & 1
OWN 33
0
80.9%
Malik Sherrod run for no gain to the FRES 33Similar
Q3 1:27
4TH & 1
OWN 33
0
81.8%
Carson King punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Chase Penry at the BOIS 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 17FG
15 plays · 63 yds · 3:4518% → 22%
Q3 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
82.4%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:27
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+4
82.7%
George Holani run for 4 yds to the BOIS 20Similar
Q3 1:27
3RD & 6
OWN 20
+22
83.3%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Prince Strachan for 22 yds to the BOIS 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
82.9%
George Holani run for a loss of 2 yards to the BOIS 40Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 12
OWN 40
0
83.9%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 12
OWN 40
0
84.8%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 12
OWN 40
+21
85.5%
James Ferguson-Reynolds pass complete to Jayden Virgin for 21 yds to the FRES 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
81.2%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
81.3%
Chase Penry run for no gain to the FRES 39Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+13
82.2%
Maddux Madsen run for 13 yds to the FRES 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
79.5%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Eric McAlister for 5 yds to the FRES 21Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 5
OPP 21
0
79.5%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 5
OPP 21
0
80.9%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:42
4TH & 5
OPP 21
+38
78.1%
Jonah Dalmas 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 18FG
7 plays · 55 yds · 2:3285% → 87%
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
84.6%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 9 yds to the FRES 48Similar
Q4 12:32
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+15
85.3%
Boise State Penalty, Personal Foul (Jaylen Clark) to the BOIS 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+23
85.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 23 yds to the BOIS 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
85.8%
Malik Sherrod run for 2 yds to the BOIS 12Similar
Q4 12:32
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+3
85.8%
Malik Sherrod run for 3 yds to the BOIS 9Similar
Q4 12:32
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+3
84.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 3 yds to the BOIS 6Similar
Q4 10:00
4TH & 2
OPP 6
+24
86.6%
Dylan Lynch 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:0211% → 9%
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
89.0%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:54
2ND & 10
OWN 3
0
89.3%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:54
3RD & 10
OWN 3
0
89.8%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:52
4TH & 10
OWN 3
0
91.1%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 55 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 2:0890% → 91%
Q4 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
90.0%
Malik Sherrod run for 10 yds to the BOIS 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
90.2%
Malik Sherrod run for a loss of 1 yard to the BOIS 49Similar
Q4 8:52
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+4
89.8%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 4 yds to the BOIS 45Similar
Q4 8:52
3RD & 7
OPP 45
0
89.7%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:44
4TH & 7
OPP 45
0
91.0%
Carson King punt for 25 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 21TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 2:048% → 41%
Q4 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
91.7%
George Holani run for 3 yds to the BOIS 23Similar
Q4 6:44
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+10
91.6%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Eric McAlister for 10 yds to the BOIS 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+18
90.6%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Chase Penry for 18 yds to the FRES 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
89.5%
Maddux Madsen run for 11 yds to the FRES 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
89.5%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:44
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
89.4%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:44
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+11
89.6%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Chase Penry for 11 yds to the FRES 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
58.8%
Maddux Madsen run for 27 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 22TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:5174% → 97%
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
74.2%
Malik Sherrod run for 4 yds to the FRES 29Similar
Q4 3:08
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
82.3%
Malik Sherrod run for 7 yds to the FRES 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
87.0%
Malik Sherrod run for 3 yds to the FRES 39Similar
Q4 2:59
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
87.6%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:38
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+10
88.6%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 10 yds to the FRES 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
90.2%
Malik Sherrod run for a loss of 1 yard to the FRES 48Similar
Q4 1:49
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+52
97.1%
Malik Sherrod run for 52 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 23FG
6 plays · 41 yds · 1:133% → 10%
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
96.7%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to George Holani for 9 yds to the BOIS 34Similar
Q4 1:44
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+23
96.2%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Billy Bowens for 23 yds to the FRES 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
95.8%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:44
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+4
95.9%
Maddux Madsen run for 4 yds to the FRES 39Similar
Q4 1:44
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+5
95.7%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to George Holani for 5 yds to the FRES 34Similar
Q4 0:31
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+52
90.2%
Jonah Dalmas 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 24END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
97.1%
[NHSG] Kneel down by KEENE, Mikey at BSU42 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:40
Maddux Madsen run for 27 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)
-30.8
TD · Q3 6:31
Elijah Gilliam run for 1 yd for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)
+15.5
TD · Q3 3:35
George Holani run for 1 yd for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)
-10.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com