Boise State

Profile vs. FBS, 2015

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1462nd
  Defense−0.0387th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense46.6%79th
  Defense33.8%98th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.1949th
  Defense+1.442nd
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1480th
  Defense−0.0384th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.1754th
  Defense0.0087th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense50.5%78th
  Defense38.4%98th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense37.7%75th
  Defense26.4%94th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.8040th
  Defense2.2995th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense19.5%53rd
  Defense27.6%97th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense2.3%28th
  Defense2.4%72nd

Percentiles among the 128 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2015

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Boise State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   WASH
2. L
   BYU
3. W
   IDST
4. W
   UVA
5. W
   HAW
6. W
   CSU
7. L
   USU
8. W
   WYO
9. W
   UNLV
10. L
    UNM
11. L
    AF
12. W
    SJSU
13. W
    NIU

Bars above the line: better than expected for Boise State.

Players, 2015

1. Brett RypienQB340 plays · +0.234 pts/play · 58th of 205 QBs
   1.49WAR0.90 to 2.07
2. Jeremy McNicholsRB219 plays · +0.109 pts/play · 27th of 333 RBs
   0.45WAR0.26 to 0.65
3. Ryan FinleyQB83 plays · +0.202 pts/play · 159th of 205 QBs
   0.31WAR0.17 to 0.45
4. Thomas SperbeckWR96 plays · +0.169 pts/play · 23rd of 411 WRs
   0.30WAR0.15 to 0.47
5. Tyler RausaPK22 plays · +0.435 pts/play · 16th of 115 kickers
   0.18WAR0.12 to 0.24
6. Shane Williams-RhodesWR64 plays · +0.107 pts/play · 153rd of 411 WRs
   0.13WAR0.05 to 0.21
7. Kelsey YoungRB58 plays · +0.111 pts/play · 182nd of 333 RBs
   0.12WAR0.08 to 0.16
8. Sean WaleP37 plays · +0.163 pts/play · 37th of 92 punters
   0.11WAR0.05 to 0.18

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Boise State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2015

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  56956952nd of 128Roster talent: 569, 52nd of 128 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  16716764th of 128Recruiting: 167, 64th of 128 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  36%36%110th of 127Returning production: 36%, 110th of 127 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +11.8+11.830th of 128SP+ rating: +11.8, 30th of 128 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 128 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2015

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Boise State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 3 clear-cut ones account for 0.07 of the 0.15 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs WASHQ4 1:59 4th & 2 at WASH 46, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−4.6 pts
2. vs UNMQ4 10:27 4th & 15 at UNM 36, down 14Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−1.8 pts
3. at SJSUQ4 10:37 4th & 2 at SJSU 14, up 13Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.0 pts
4. vs WASHQ4 9:50 4th & 3 at BOIS 19, up 6Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
5. vs AFQ3 1:10 4th & 10 at AF 49, down 21Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.9 pts
6. at UVAQ2 5:11 4th & 2 at UVA 13, up 19Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts
7. at UVAQ3 10:19 4th & 3 at UVA 22, up 15Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts
8. at SJSUQ2 0:00 4th & 4 at SJSU 8, down 4Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2015

102nd of 128 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Boise State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   WASH
2. L

   BYU
3. W

   IDST
4. W

   UVA
5. W

   HAW
6. W

   CSU
7. L

   USU
8. W

   WYO
9. W

   UNLV
10. L

    UNM
11. L

    AF
12. W

    SJSU
13. W

    NIU

What moved it, 2015

Every game starts at Boise State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+0.25
• Possession & field position−0.06
• Clock−0.02
• Timeouts+0.03
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−1.30

Game by game

• WASHW 16-13 vs WASH74% → 96%Before kickoff +24 · On the field +22: Scoreboard +26, Timeouts +2
• BYUL 24-35 at BYU50% → 7%Before kickoff 0 · On the field −43: Scoreboard −33, Possession & field position −2
• IDSTW 52-0 vs IDST96% → 100%Before kickoff +46 · On the field +4: Scoreboard +5
• UVAW 56-14 at UVA58% → 100%Before kickoff +8 · On the field +42: Scoreboard +46, Clock +1
• HAWW 55-0 vs HAW93% → 100%Before kickoff +43 · On the field +7: Scoreboard +10
• CSUW 41-10 at CSU79% → 100%Before kickoff +29 · On the field +21: Scoreboard +28, Clock +1
• USUL 26-52 at USU72% → 0%Before kickoff +22 · On the field −72: Scoreboard −58, Possession & field position −1
• WYOW 34-14 vs WYO98% → 100%Before kickoff +48 · On the field +2: Scoreboard +5
• UNLVW 55-27 at UNLV90% → 100%Before kickoff +40 · On the field +9: Scoreboard +14
• UNML 24-31 vs UNM96% → 12%Before kickoff +46 · On the field −84: Scoreboard −38, Clock −2
• AFL 30-37 vs AF83% → 4%Before kickoff +33 · On the field −79: Scoreboard −56, Clock −4
• SJSUW 40-23 at SJSU69% → 99%Before kickoff +19 · On the field +30: Scoreboard +38, Clock +2
• NIUW 55-7 at NIU68% → 100%Before kickoff +18 · On the field +32: Scoreboard +37, Clock +1

Points of win probability, from Boise State's side.

Closest call

BOIS 59-52 CSU (2017) - Boise State dropped to a 2.5% win probability before pulling it out.