Try the model
AF

Air Force 37 at Boise State 30

BOIS
2015 · Week 12 · Nov 20, 2015 · Albertsons Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · BOIS
modelBOIS aheadAF aheadconfidence bandkey playBOIS scoreAF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 1:10 · Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 15 yds to the AFA 34 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+42.0+21.00−21.0−42.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 137Pregame prior+9.8Home team on offense−34.8Score differential−20.7Garbage-time factor−12.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:42: Jalen Robinette 67 Yd pass from Karson Roberts (Luke Strebel Kick) — AF win probability +8.1 pts (now 31%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:34: Timothy McVey 48 Yd Run (Luke Strebel Kick) — AF win probability +9.4 pts (now 45%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 13:18: Garrett Griffin 51 Yd pass from Karson Roberts (Luke Strebel Kick) — AF win probability +18.4 pts (now 69%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:53: Thomas Sperbeck 34 Yd pass from Brett Rypien (Tyler Rausa Kick) — BOIS win probability +17.9 pts (now 26%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:35: Thomas Stuart 2 Yd Run (Tyler Rausa Kick) — BOIS win probability +23.4 pts (now 33%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BOIS made the numbers' call on 11 of 14AF made the numbers' call on 2 of 6
  1. Q1 13:40BOIS 4th & 8 at AF 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.3%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.3%
    75% to make
    Punt
    82.9%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:32AF 4th & 13 at AF 38, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.8%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:20BOIS 4th & 6 at BOIS 24, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.0%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:50AF 4th & 1 at BOIS 1, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.9%−0.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    15.8%−1.6
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:56BOIS 4th & 9 at AF 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.0%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.2%
    60% to make
    Punt
    80.7%−1.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:51BOIS 4th & 13 at AF 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.1%−0.7
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.8%
    62% to make
    Punt
    75.5%−2.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:45AF 4th & 1 at BOIS 48, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.8%−1.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:26BOIS 4th & 3 at BOIS 24, up 3
    Close callPunted · 76.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:40BOIS 4th & 22 at midfield, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.9%−1.8
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:10BOIS 4th & 13 at BOIS 49, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.4%−0.7
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:31BOIS 4th & 9 at BOIS 36, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%−1.7
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:27AF 4th & 7 at BOIS 14, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.5%−1.2
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.7%
    84% to make
    Punt
    63.9%−10.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:18BOIS 4th & 5 at AF 46, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    12.0%−2.7
    23% to make
    Punt
    14.3%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:10BOIS 4th & 10 at AF 49, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.0%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:13BOIS 4th & 12 at BOIS 49, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.4%−1.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:46AF 4th & 2 at midfield, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 90.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.3%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.8%−1.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:32BOIS 4th & 2 at BOIS 27, down 14
    Close callPunted · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.3%−0.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:11AF 4th & 1 at BOIS 28, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.4%−1.8
    60% to make
    Punt
    82.1%−6.2
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:30BOIS 4th & 1 at BOIS 44, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.0%−0.5
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:11BOIS 4th & 13 at AF 28, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.8%−0.5
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.3%
    60% to make
    Punt
    4.7%−1.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BOIS made the numbers' call on 2 of 3AF made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 14:45BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:15AF Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:42AF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:34AF Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 13:18AF Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:53BOIS Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:35BOIS Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BOISDrive 1TD
2 plays · 83 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+83
82.9%
Jeremy McNichols 83 Yd Run (Tyler Rausa Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2FUMBLE
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
82.9%
Karson Roberts run for no gain to the AFA 22 Karson Roberts fumbled, forced by Tanner Vallejo, recovered by BoiSt Ben WeaverSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 3FG
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4783% → 83%
Q1 14:27
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-1
83.0%
Jeremy McNichols run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 23Similar
Q1 14:09
2ND & 11
OPP 23
+3
83.0%
Brett Rypien run for 3 yds to the AFA 20Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 8
OPP 20
0
82.9%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Holden HuffSimilar
Q1 13:40
4TH & 8
OPP 20
+37
82.9%
Tyler Rausa 37 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:0417% → 17%
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.8%
Karson Roberts pass incomplete to Garrett BrownSimilar
Q1 13:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
82.8%
Bryan Driskell run for 16 yds to the AFA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-3
82.7%
Garrett Brown run for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 38Similar
Q1 12:08
2ND & 13
OWN 38
0
82.7%
Jacobi Owens run for no gain to the AFA 38Similar
Q1 11:39
3RD & 13
OWN 38
0
82.7%
Karson Roberts pass incomplete to Jalen RobinetteSimilar
Q1 11:32
4TH & 13
OWN 38
0
82.8%
Steve Brosy punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Donte Deayon at the BoiSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0783% → 83%
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
82.8%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Thomas SperbeckSimilar
Q1 11:23
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+7
82.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 7 yds to the BoiSt 27Similar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 3
OWN 27
-3
82.7%
Brett Rypien sacked by Ryan Watson for a loss of 3 yards to the BoiSt 24 Brett Rypien fumbled, forced by Ryan Watson, recovered by BoiSt Mario Yakoo , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 10:20
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
82.6%
Sean Wale punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Garrett Brown at the AFA 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6FG
9 plays · 70 yds · 3:1917% → 18%
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+59
82.6%
Jacobi Owens run for 59 yds to the BoiSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
82.2%
Jacobi Owens run for 9 yds to the BoiSt 3Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 1
OPP 3
+2
82.0%
Karson Roberts run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
81.9%
Jacobi Owens run for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 3 Jacobi Owens fumbled, forced by Ben Weaver, recovered by AFA Andrew RuechelSimilar
Q1 8:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
82.5%
Karson Roberts run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 1Similar
Q1 7:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
82.6%
Bryan Driskell run for no gain to the BoiSt 1Similar
Q1 6:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+18
82.0%
Luke Strebel 18 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 7FG
14 plays · 49 yds · 5:3983% → 82%
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
82.5%
Jeremy McNichols run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 29Similar
Q1 5:59
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+1
82.5%
Jeremy McNichols run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 30Similar
Q1 5:18
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+4
82.2%
Brett Rypien run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
82.4%
Jeremy McNichols run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 38Similar
Q1 4:17
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+3
82.8%
Jeremy McNichols run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 41Similar
Q1 3:35
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+18
82.6%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jake Roh for 18 yds to the AFA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
82.9%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Thomas SperbeckSimilar
Q1 3:11
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
82.9%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Thomas SperbeckSimilar
Q1 3:04
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+12
82.6%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Chaz Anderson for 12 yds to the AFA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-3
82.8%
Kelsey Young run for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 32Similar
Q1 2:07
2ND & 13
OPP 32
+1
82.7%
Ryan Wolpin run for 1 yd to the AFA 31Similar
Q1 1:32
3RD & 12
OPP 31
+3
82.2%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 3 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q1 0:56
4TH & 9
OPP 28
+45
82.4%
Tyler Rausa 45 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:2417% → 23%
Q1 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
82.9%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q1 0:26
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
82.7%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Garrett Brown for 9 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
82.5%
Karson Roberts run for 12 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
82.1%
Karson Roberts run for 12 yds to the BoiSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:31
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+38
82.0%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Garrett Griffin for 38 yds to the BoiSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
77.4%
Karson Roberts 1 Yd Run (Luke Strebel Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 9MISSED FG
12 plays · 48 yds · 3:0979% → 77%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
78.8%
Jeremy McNichols run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 32Similar
Q2 13:39
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
79.2%
Brett Rypien pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:30
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+21
78.4%
Brett Rypien run for 6 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST down AIR FORCE Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the AFA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
79.7%
BOISE ST Penalty, False Start (Chaz Anderson) to the BoiSt 48Similar
Q2 12:53
1ST & 15
OWN 48
-1
78.9%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 47Similar
Q2 12:25
2ND & 16
OWN 47
0
78.6%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Jeremy McNicholsSimilar
Q2 12:18
3RD & 16
OPP 47
+29
78.3%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Kelsey Young for 14 yds to the BOISEST 39 for a 1ST down AIR FORCE Penalty, Personal Foul (TEAM) to the AFA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
79.8%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Holden HuffSimilar
Q2 12:01
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+5
79.8%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Chaz Anderson for 5 yds to the AFA 19Similar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 5
OPP 19
-8
79.2%
Brett Rypien sacked by Connor Healy for a loss of 8 yards to the AFA 27Similar
Q2 10:51
4TH & 13
OPP 27
+44
77.4%
Tyler Rausa 44 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by D.J. Dunn Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5723% → 23%
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
77.1%
Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 6
OWN 47
-7
76.7%
Tyler Williams run for a loss of 7 yards to the AFA 40 Tyler Williams fumbled, recovered by AFA Tyler WilliamsSimilar
Q2 9:35
3RD & 13
OWN 40
+12
77.9%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 12 yds to the BoiSt 48Similar
Q2 8:45
4TH & 1
OPP 48
0
76.8%
Steve Brosy punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Donte Deayon at the BoiSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1177% → 76%
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
77.3%
Jeremy McNichols run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 20Similar
Q2 8:06
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+4
77.6%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for 4 yds to the BoiSt 24Similar
Q2 7:38
3RD & 3
OWN 24
0
77.0%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Chaz AndersonSimilar
Q2 7:26
4TH & 3
OWN 24
0
76.3%
Sean Wale punt for 48 yds, downed at the AFA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12TD
2 plays · 72 yds · 0:3323% → 31%
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
77.1%
Karson Roberts run for 5 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q2 6:42
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+67
69.0%
Jalen Robinette 67 Yd pass from Karson Roberts (Luke Strebel Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 1:4572% → 68%
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+22
71.9%
Jeremy McNichols run for 22 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
72.5%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Thomas SperbeckSimilar
Q2 5:44
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+5
72.2%
Jeremy McNichols run for 5 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q2 5:04
3RD & 5
OPP 33
-2
71.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Holden Huff for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 35Similar
Q2 4:47
4TH & 7
OPP 35
-15
70.0%
Rypien, Brett pass complete to Sperbeck, Thomas for 11 yards to the AIRFORCE24, PENALTY BOISEST pass interference 15 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:40
4TH & 22
50
0
68.1%
Sean Wale punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Garrett Brown at the AFA 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 14TD
6 plays · 81 yds · 1:5931% → 45%
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
68.7%
Karson Roberts run for 4 yds to the AFA 23Similar
Q2 3:58
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+17
67.8%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Garrett Brown for 17 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
65.9%
Tyler Williams run for 7 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q2 3:07
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+5
64.6%
Jacobi Owens run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
55.0%
Timothy McVey 48 Yd Run (Luke Strebel Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 0:5857% → 55%
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
56.5%
Brett Rypien sacked by Lochlin Deeks for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 24Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
55.5%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Thomas SperbeckSimilar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+13
54.4%
Rypien, Brett pass incomplete to Sperbeck, Thomas, PENALTY AIRFORCE pass interference 13 yards to the BOISEST37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BOISEST.Similar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
56.3%
Rypien, Brett pass incomplete, PENALTY AIRFORCE pass interference (Ladipo, Roland) 15 yards to the AIRFORCE48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BOISEST.Similar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-3
57.7%
Brett Rypien sacked by D.J. Dunn Jr. and Ryan Watson for a loss of 3 yards to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 13
OWN 49
0
56.4%
Brett Rypien pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:18
3RD & 13
OWN 49
0
55.0%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Jake RohSimilar
Q2 1:10
4TH & 13
OWN 49
0
54.5%
Sean Wale punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 16END OF HALF
4 plays · 28 yds · 0:5147% → 52%
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+22
53.2%
Garrett Brown run for 22 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
51.6%
Timothy McVey run for 8 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 2
OWN 44
-2
48.2%
Karson Roberts sacked by Armand Nance for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 17TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:3448% → 69%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
52.2%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Garrett Griffin for 18 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
50.2%
Karson Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q3 13:57
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+3
49.4%
Karson Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 49Similar
Q3 13:18
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+51
31.0%
Garrett Griffin 51 Yd pass from Karson Roberts (Luke Strebel Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:3735% → 33%
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
34.9%
Jeremy McNichols run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 36Similar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
33.9%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Jake RohSimilar
Q3 12:47
3RD & 9
OWN 36
0
33.5%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Jake RohSimilar
Q3 12:31
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
32.8%
Sean Wale punt for 58 yds, downed at the AFA 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 19FG
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:5870% → 84%
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+5
30.5%
Tyler Williams run for 5 yds to the AFA 11Similar
Q3 11:54
2ND & 5
OWN 11
+7
29.6%
Karson Roberts run for 7 yds to the AFA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
28.1%
Timothy McVey run for 9 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+56
26.9%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Timothy McVey for 56 yds to the BoiSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
23.6%
Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 13Similar
Q3 9:33
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+1
23.0%
Jacobi Owens run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 12Similar
Q3 9:00
3RD & 5
OPP 12
-2
22.8%
Timothy McVey run for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 14Similar
Q3 8:27
4TH & 7
OPP 14
+32
16.3%
Luke Strebel 32 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 20DOWNS
9 plays · 32 yds · 2:5819% → 14%
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+15
19.2%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Chaz Anderson for 15 yds to the BoiSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
19.8%
Jeremy McNichols run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 42Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+3
19.6%
Jeremy McNichols run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 45Similar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+4
19.1%
Jeremy McNichols run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
18.7%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Thomas SperbeckSimilar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+6
14.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 6 yds to the AFA 45Similar
Q3 5:45
3RD & 4
OPP 45
-1
14.3%
Jeremy McNichols run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 46Similar
Q3 5:18
4TH & 5
OPP 46
0
13.5%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Chaz AndersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 21INT
8 plays · 28 yds · 3:2392% → 95%
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
7.9%
Timothy McVey run for 3 yds to the AFA 49Similar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 7
OWN 49
0
7.7%
Karson Roberts pass incomplete to Jalen RobinetteSimilar
Q3 4:34
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+11
7.6%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Timothy McVey for 11 yds to the BoiSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
7.1%
Jacobi Owens run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 35Similar
Q3 3:37
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+2
6.1%
Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 33Similar
Q3 2:58
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+4
5.9%
Garrett Brown run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
5.5%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 26Similar
Q3 1:42
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+39
5.0%
Karson Roberts pass intercepted Raymond Ford return for 39 yds to the BoiSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 22TD
6 plays · 61 yds · 0:448% → 26%
Q3 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
8.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jake Roh for 12 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
8.7%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Thomas SperbeckSimilar
Q3 1:22
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
8.6%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Chaz AndersonSimilar
Q3 1:17
3RD & 10
OPP 49
0
8.5%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Austin CottrellSimilar
Q3 1:10
4TH & 10
OPP 49
+15
8.2%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 15 yds to the AFA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
26.2%
Thomas Sperbeck 34 Yd pass from Brett Rypien (Tyler Rausa Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 23INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:3681% → 81%
Q3 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
19.2%
Tyler Williams run for no gain to the AFA 23Similar
Q3 0:04
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
18.5%
Karson Roberts pass incomplete to Garrett GriffinSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 23
0
19.0%
Karson Roberts pass intercepted Chanceller James return for no gain to the AFA 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:4024% → 21%
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
24.0%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Thomas SperbeckSimilar
Q4 14:43
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-2
23.5%
Jeremy McNichols run for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q4 14:20
3RD & 12
OWN 49
0
21.4%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Jake RohSimilar
Q4 14:13
4TH & 12
OWN 49
0
20.6%
Sean Wale punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Garrett Brown at the AFA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 25PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 4:1984% → 90%
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
15.6%
Jacobi Owens run for 7 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+2
14.2%
Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q4 12:52
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
14.2%
Karson Roberts run for 2 yds to the AFA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
13.2%
Timothy McVey run for 11 yds to the AFA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-4
11.5%
Timothy McVey run for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 38Similar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 14
OWN 38
+9
10.8%
Karson Roberts run for 9 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q4 10:15
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+3
9.7%
Karson Roberts run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:46
4TH & 2
50
0
9.6%
Steve Brosy punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Donte Deayon at the BoiSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:0313% → 10%
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-4
12.9%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Terrell Johnson for a loss of 4 yards to the BoiSt 15Similar
Q4 9:13
2ND & 14
OWN 15
+8
10.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 8 yds to the BoiSt 23Similar
Q4 8:55
3RD & 6
OWN 23
+4
9.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for 4 yds to the BoiSt 27Similar
Q4 8:32
4TH & 2
OWN 27
0
9.6%
Sean Wale punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Garrett Brown at the AFA 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 27INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q4 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
8.4%
Karson Roberts pass intercepted Ben Weaver return for no gain to the BoiSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 28TD
8 plays · 52 yds · 2:2510% → 33%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
10.4%
Jeremy McNichols run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+13
10.2%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 13 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
9.7%
Jeremy McNichols run for 5 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+1
10.3%
Jeremy McNichols run for 1 yd to the AFA 32Similar
Q4 6:34
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+15
9.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Chaz Anderson for 15 yds to the AFA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+14
9.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for 14 yds to the AFA 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
9.3%
Jeremy McNichols run for 1 yd to the AFA 2Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
32.7%
Thomas Stuart 2 Yd Run (Tyler Rausa Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 29FG
13 plays · 47 yds · 3:1483% → 94%
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
16.8%
Timothy McVey run for 1 yd to the AFA 26Similar
Q4 4:41
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
15.9%
Jacobi Owens run for 10 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
14.4%
Jacobi Owens run for 7 yds to the AFA 43Similar
Q4 3:33
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+5
13.2%
Jacobi Owens run for 5 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
11.2%
Jacobi Owens run for 15 yds to the BoiSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
9.9%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 34Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+3
8.2%
Karson Roberts run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 31Similar
Q4 2:17
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+3
8.2%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q4 2:11
4TH & 1
OPP 28
+45
6.0%
Luke Strebel 45 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 30FG
12 plays · 37 yds · 1:544% → 9%
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
4.0%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Thomas SperbeckSimilar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+9
3.6%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jake Roh for 9 yds to the BoiSt 44Similar
Q4 1:37
3RD & 1
OWN 44
0
3.5%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to A.J. RichardsonSimilar
Q4 1:30
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+19
3.0%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jake Roh for 19 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
3.6%
Brett Rypien sacked by Alex Hansen for a loss of 5 yards to the AFA 42 Brett Rypien fumbled, recovered by BoiStSimilar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 15
OPP 42
+17
3.2%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 17 yds to the AFA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
4.4%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Thomas SperbeckSimilar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-3
4.4%
Brett Rypien sacked by Alex Hansen for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 28Similar
Q4 0:20
3RD & 13
OPP 28
0
3.4%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Chaz AndersonSimilar
Q4 0:11
4TH & 13
OPP 28
+45
9.2%
Tyler Rausa 45 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 31END OF GAME
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
3.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:35
Thomas Stuart 2 Yd Run (Tyler Rausa Kick)
+23.4
TD · Q3 13:18
Garrett Griffin 51 Yd pass from Karson Roberts (Luke Strebel Kick)
-18.4
TD · Q3 0:53
Thomas Sperbeck 34 Yd pass from Brett Rypien (Tyler Rausa Kick)
+17.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com