Boise State

Profile vs. FBS, 2019

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1978th
  Defense+0.0378th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense45.8%71st
  Defense39.8%76th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2773rd
  Defense+1.2626th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1372nd
  Defense−0.1197th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2667th
  Defense+0.1460th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense47.4%43rd
  Defense43.6%85th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense42.1%95th
  Defense33.3%49th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.2184th
  Defense2.5485th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense15.3%89th
  Defense23.2%85th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense16.6%80th
  Defense20.5%57th

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2019

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Boise State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   FSU
2. W
   MRSH
3. W
   PRST
4. W
   AF
5. W
   UNLV
6. W
   HAW
7. L
   BYU
8. W
   SJSU
9. W
   WYO
10. W
    UNM
11. W
    USU
12. W
    CSU
13. W
    HAW
14. L
    WASH

Bars above the line: better than expected for Boise State.

Players, 2019

1. Hank BachmeierQB215 plays · +0.181 pts/play · 99th of 228 QBs
   0.73WAR0.34 to 1.12
2. Jaylon HendersonQB123 plays · +0.255 pts/play · 114th of 228 QBs
   0.59WAR0.39 to 0.80
3. George HolaniRB181 plays · +0.160 pts/play · 45th of 349 RBs
   0.54WAR0.39 to 0.67
4. Chase CordQB95 plays · +0.183 pts/play · 159th of 228 QBs
   0.33WAR0.18 to 0.49
5. Khalil ShakirWR90 plays · +0.138 pts/play · 46th of 439 WRs
   0.23WAR0.14 to 0.34
6. Robert MahoneRB82 plays · +0.151 pts/play · 174th of 349 RBs
   0.23WAR0.17 to 0.29
7. John HightowerWR81 plays · +0.128 pts/play · 72nd of 439 WRs
   0.19WAR0.10 to 0.30
8. CT ThomasWR41 plays · +0.199 pts/play · 112th of 439 WRs
   0.15WAR0.10 to 0.21

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Boise State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2019

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  56156167th of 130Roster talent: 561, 67th of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  17517561st of 130Recruiting: 175, 61st of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  33%33%114th of 130Returning production: 33%, 114th of 130 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +8.1+8.137th of 130SP+ rating: +8.1, 37th of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2019

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Boise State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 4 clear-cut ones account for 0.11 of the 0.14 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs WYOQ4 12:47 4th & 1 at BOIS 29, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it4.4 pts
2. vs MRSHQ4 8:14 4th & 1 at BOIS 30, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it3.8 pts
3. vs MRSHQ3 6:45 4th & 27 at MRSH 35, up 7Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal2.0 pts
4. at SJSUQ3 14:59 4th & 2 at BOIS 38, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it1.2 pts
5. vs WASHQ2 5:01 4th & 3 at BOIS 40, down 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)0.6 pts
6. at UNLVQ2 2:49 4th & 3 at BOIS 46, up 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)0.4 pts
7. at UNLVQ4 13:29 4th & 2 at BOIS 39, up 17Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)0.4 pts
8. at CSUQ4 7:54 4th & 6 at midfield, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)0.4 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2019

21st of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Boise State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   FSU
2. W

   MRSH
3. W

   PRST
4. W

   AF
5. W

   UNLV
6. W

   HAW
7. L

   BYU
8. W

   SJSU
9. W

   WYO
10. W

    UNM
11. W

    USU
12. W

    CSU
13. W

    HAW
14. L

    WASH

What moved it, 2019

Every game starts at Boise State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+2.17
• Clock+0.19
• Timeouts−0.14
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−1.16

Game by game

• FSUW 36-31 at FSU27% → 95%Before kickoff −23 · On the field +67: Scoreboard +55, Clock +4
• MRSHW 14-7 vs MRSH78% → 97%Before kickoff +28 · On the field +20: Scoreboard +24, Timeouts +1
• PRSTW 45-10 vs PRST97% → 100%Before kickoff +47 · On the field +3: Scoreboard +5
• AFW 30-19 vs AF69% → 97%Before kickoff +19 · On the field +28: Scoreboard +31, Possession & field position +1
• UNLVW 38-13 at UNLV92% → 100%Before kickoff +42 · On the field +7: Scoreboard +12
• HAWW 59-37 vs HAW78% → 99%Before kickoff +28 · On the field +21: Scoreboard +25, Clock +1
• BYUL 25-28 at BYU66% → 5%Before kickoff +16 · On the field −61: Scoreboard −39, Timeouts −3
• SJSUW 52-42 at SJSU86% → 67%Before kickoff +36 · On the field −18: Scoreboard +20, Possession & field position −2
• WYOW 20-17 vs WYO86% → 83%Before kickoff +36 · On the field −3: Scoreboard +15, Timeouts −13
• UNMW 42-9 vs UNM94% → 100%Before kickoff +44 · On the field +6: Scoreboard +8
• USUW 56-21 at USU59% → 100%Before kickoff +9 · On the field +41: Scoreboard +45, Clock +2
• CSUW 31-24 at CSU82% → 95%Before kickoff +32 · On the field +13: Scoreboard +29, Clock +2
• HAWW 31-10 vs HAW81% → 100%Before kickoff +31 · On the field +19: Scoreboard +23
• WASHL 7-38 vs WASH36% → 0%Before kickoff −14 · On the field −36: Scoreboard −36, Timeouts +1

Points of win probability, from Boise State's side.

Closest call

BOIS 59-52 CSU (2017) - Boise State dropped to a 2.5% win probability before pulling it out.