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BOIS

Boise State 25 at BYU 28

BYU
2019 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2019 · LaVell Edwards Stadium
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Win probability · BYU
modelBYU aheadBOIS aheadconfidence bandkey playBYU scoreBOIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Timeout BYU, clock 00:00
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+24.5+12.30−12.3−24.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 13:03: Sione Finau 46 Yd Run (Jake Oldroyd Kick) — BYU win probability +12.7 pts (now 56%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:49: Matt Bushman 27 Yd pass from Baylor Romney (Jake Oldroyd Kick) — BYU win probability +13.2 pts (now 77%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:10: Matt Bushman 39 Yd pass from Baylor Romney (Jake Oldroyd Kick) — BYU win probability +12.8 pts (now 92%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:42: Octavius Evans 13 Yd pass from Chase Cord (Chase Cord Pass to Garrett Collingham for Two-Point Conversion) — BOIS win probability +16.3 pts (now 24%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:17: Akilian Butler 5 Yd pass from Chase Cord (Eric Sachse Kick) — BOIS win probability +30.6 pts (now 40%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BYU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7BOIS made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q2 13:26BYU 4th & 21 at BOIS 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%−1.0
    8% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.2%
    74% to make
    Punt
    37.9%−2.3
    average punt
  2. Q2 11:56BOIS 4th & 12 at BOIS 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.9%−0.9
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.9%
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:16BYU 4th & 14 at BYU 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.8%−0.9
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:41BOIS 4th & 4 at BOIS 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.4%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:05BYU 4th & 12 at BYU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.2%−1.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:42BOIS 4th & 9 at BOIS 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.9%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:09BYU 4th & 2 at BYU 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.6%−<0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:28BOIS 4th & 7 at BYU 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.3%−1.4
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.6%
    74% to make
    Punt
    54.1%−5.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:46BOIS 4th & 6 at BYU 19, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.3%−0.6
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.8%
    77% to make
    Punt
    37.2%−7.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:49BYU 4th & 1 at BOIS 27, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    58.3%−3.5
    62% to make
    Punt
    49.8%−12.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:41BYU 4th & 10 at midfield, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.0%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:10BOIS 4th & 7 at BOIS 31, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%−1.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:41BYU 4th & 12 at BYU 46, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.7%−1.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BYU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4BOIS made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q1 10:28BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:34BYU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 13:03BYU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:49BYU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:10BYU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:42BOIS Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    13.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    13.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:17BOIS Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.0%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BOISDrive 1TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 4:1766% → 67%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
33.9%
Robert Mahone run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 33Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+3
34.0%
Robert Mahone run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 36Similar
Q1 14:15
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+20
34.0%
Chase Cord pass complete to John Bates for 20 yds to the BYU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
34.1%
Chase Cord pass complete to CT Thomas for 10 yds to the BYU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
34.2%
George Holani run for 1 yd to the BYU 33Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+4
34.3%
Robert Mahone run for 4 yds to the BYU 29Similar
Q1 12:30
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+13
34.5%
Chase Cord pass complete to John Bates for 13 yds to the BYU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
34.6%
Robert Mahone run for 4 yds to the BYU 12Similar
Q1 10:28
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+12
33.5%
CT Thomas 12 Yd Run (Eric Sachse Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 2TD
18 plays · 78 yds · 6:3634% → 40%
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
34.1%
Baylor Romney run for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 20Similar
Q1 9:43
2ND & 12
OWN 20
0
34.1%
Baylor Romney pass incomplete to Aleva HifoSimilar
Q1 9:43
3RD & 12
OWN 20
+5
33.9%
BOISE ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jalen Walker) to the BYU 25Similar
Q1 9:25
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+22
33.9%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Talon Shumway for 22 yds to the BYU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
34.7%
Baylor Romney pass incomplete to Matt BushmanSimilar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+11
34.5%
Lopini Katoa run for 11 yds to the BoiSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
34.7%
Baylor Romney pass incomplete to Moroni Laulu-PututauSimilar
Q1 8:28
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+11
34.8%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Matt Bushman for 11 yds to the BoiSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
35.2%
Baylor Romney run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 29Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+3
35.3%
Sione Finau run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 26Similar
Q1 6:30
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+9
35.0%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 9 yds to the BoiSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-9
35.4%
Lopini Katoa run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 16 BYU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the BoiSt 26Similar
Q1 5:48
1ST & 19
OPP 26
0
35.3%
Baylor Romney pass incomplete to Aleva HifoSimilar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 19
OPP 26
+7
35.1%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Lopini Katoa for 7 yds to the BoiSt 19Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 12
OPP 19
+13
35.0%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Talon Shumway for 13 yds to the BoiSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
35.8%
Austin Kafentzis run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 4Similar
Q1 3:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
39.9%
Lopini Katoa 4 Yd Run (Jake Oldroyd Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 3INT
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:4462% → 62%
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
38.2%
Chase Cord pass complete to George Holani for 8 yds to the BoiSt 26Similar
Q1 2:52
2ND & 2
OWN 26
+4
37.8%
George Holani run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
38.0%
Chase Cord pass intercepted Isaiah Kaufusi return for no gain to the BoiSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 4MISSED FG
11 plays · 22 yds · 3:4940% → 40%
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
40.4%
Lopini Katoa run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q1 1:47
2ND & 6
OPP 39
0
40.7%
Baylor Romney pass incomplete to Micah SimonSimilar
Q1 1:30
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+6
40.6%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Matt Bushman for 6 yds to the BoiSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+16
41.3%
Sione Finau run for 16 yds to the BoiSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
41.6%
Sione Finau run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 16Similar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+10
42.0%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Gunner Romney for 10 yds to the BoiSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
42.1%
Lopini Katoa run for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 8Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
42.4%
Baylor Romney pass incomplete to Dax MilneSimilar
Q2 14:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-11
41.8%
BYU Penalty, Offensive Holding (Brady Christensen) to the BoiSt 19Similar
Q2 14:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 19
-2
41.0%
Lopini Katoa run for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 21Similar
Q2 13:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 21
+38
40.1%
Jake Oldroyd 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:2460% → 59%
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
39.6%
John Hightower run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 20Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 11
OWN 20
-1
40.0%
Chase Cord sacked by Lorenzo Fauatea for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 19Similar
Q2 12:04
3RD & 12
OWN 19
0
40.9%
Chase Cord pass incomplete to John HightowerSimilar
Q2 11:56
4TH & 12
OWN 19
0
41.5%
Joel Velazquez punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BYU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:3443% → 41%
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
42.8%
Baylor Romney pass incomplete to Micah SimonSimilar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
42.5%
Lopini Katoa run for no gain to the BYU 43Similar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 10
OWN 43
-4
41.8%
Baylor Romney sacked by Curtis Weaver and Benton Wickersham for a loss of 4 yards to the BYU 39Similar
Q2 10:16
4TH & 14
OWN 39
0
40.8%
Jake Oldroyd punt for 32 yds, downed at the BoiSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1460% → 58%
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
40.3%
George Holani run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 33Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+2
40.0%
George Holani run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 35Similar
Q2 8:55
3RD & 4
OWN 35
0
40.6%
Chase Cord pass incomplete to John HightowerSimilar
Q2 8:41
4TH & 4
OWN 35
+14
41.8%
Joel Velazquez punt for 47 yds , Aleva Hifo returns for 14 yds to the BYU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:1043% → 42%
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-4
43.4%
Baylor Romney sacked by Chase Hatada for a loss of 4 yards to the BYU 28Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 14
OWN 28
+2
42.8%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 2 yds to the BYU 30Similar
Q2 7:14
3RD & 12
OWN 30
0
42.1%
Baylor Romney pass incomplete to Matt BushmanSimilar
Q2 7:05
4TH & 12
OWN 30
0
41.5%
Jake Oldroyd punt for 28 yds, downed at the BoiSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:0861% → 58%
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
38.9%
George Holani run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 46Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 6
OWN 46
-3
38.7%
George Holani run for a loss of 3 yards to the BoiSt 43Similar
Q2 5:55
3RD & 9
OWN 43
0
40.1%
Chase Cord pass incomplete to George HolaniSimilar
Q2 5:42
4TH & 9
OWN 43
0
41.8%
Joel Velazquez punt for 54 yds, downed at the BYU 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2144% → 42%
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+3
43.7%
Sione Finau run for 3 yds to the BYU 6Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 7
OWN 6
0
43.8%
Baylor Romney pass incomplete to Matt BushmanSimilar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 7
OWN 6
+5
42.9%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Micah Simon for 5 yds to the BYU 11Similar
Q2 4:09
4TH & 2
OWN 11
0
42.4%
Jake Oldroyd punt for 52 yds, downed at the BoiSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 11FG
14 plays · 42 yds · 3:1759% → 63%
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
40.6%
Chase Cord pass complete to Octavius Evans for 6 yds to the BoiSt 43Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+6
39.3%
George Holani run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
39.2%
George Holani run for 6 yds to the BYU 45Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+3
38.5%
George Holani run for 3 yds to the BYU 42Similar
Q2 2:05
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+2
38.9%
Chase Cord run for 2 yds to the BYU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
38.2%
Andrew Van Buren run for 2 yds to the BYU 38Similar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+14
39.0%
Chase Cord run for 14 yds to the BYU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
38.2%
Akilian Butler run for 4 yds to the BYU 20Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 6
OPP 20
-1
38.3%
Jaylon Henderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 21Similar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 7
OPP 21
0
39.3%
Jaylon Henderson pass incomplete to CT ThomasSimilar
Q2 0:28
4TH & 7
OPP 21
+38
36.9%
Eric Sachse 38 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
39.4%
Lopini Katoa run for 5 yds to the BYU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 13TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2739% → 56%
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
39.4%
Lopini Katoa run for 8 yds to the BYU 33Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+18
41.7%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Matt Bushman for 18 yds to the BoiSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
43.1%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Sione Finau for 3 yds to the BoiSt 46Similar
Q3 13:03
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+46
55.8%
Sione Finau 46 Yd Run (Jake Oldroyd Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 14MISSED FG
14 plays · 71 yds · 4:4948% → 45%
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
52.4%
George Holani run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 14Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+5
52.8%
George Holani run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 19Similar
Q3 11:40
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+2
53.8%
Chase Cord run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
54.0%
George Holani run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 27Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+10
54.4%
Chase Cord pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 10 yds to the BoiSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+16
54.6%
George Holani run for 16 yds to the BYU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
51.7%
BYU Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (5 Yards) to the BYU 42Similar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 5
OPP 42
+6
51.6%
George Holani run for 6 yds to the BYU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+13
52.1%
BYU Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (13 Yards) to the BYU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
50.5%
Andrew Van Buren run for no gain to the BYU 23Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+4
51.1%
Chase Cord pass complete to Andrew Van Buren for 4 yds to the BYU 19Similar
Q3 7:50
3RD & 6
OPP 19
0
52.3%
Chase Cord pass incomplete to John BatesSimilar
Q3 7:46
4TH & 6
OPP 19
+36
55.0%
Eric Sachse 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 15TD
7 plays · 79 yds · 2:5159% → 77%
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
58.9%
BOISE ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (4 Yards) to the BYU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+39
59.3%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Talon Shumway for 39 yds to the BoiSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
63.0%
Sione Finau run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 33Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 7
OPP 33
-5
64.2%
BYU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BoiSt 38Similar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 12
OPP 38
+10
62.9%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Lopini Katoa for 10 yds to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+1
63.5%
Baylor Romney run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 27Similar
Q3 4:49
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+27
76.7%
Matt Bushman 27 Yd pass from Baylor Romney (Jake Oldroyd Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 16INT
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:4424% → 25%
Q3 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
75.7%
Chase Cord pass incomplete to Akilian ButlerSimilar
Q3 4:25
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+15
76.0%
Chase Cord pass complete to Octavius Evans for 15 yds to the BoiSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
74.7%
Khalil Shakir run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 43Similar
Q3 3:52
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+13
75.4%
Chase Cord pass intercepted Jackson Kaufusi return for 13 yds to the BoiSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 17TD
2 plays · 41 yds · 0:3579% → 92%
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
79.4%
Sione Finau run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+39
92.3%
Matt Bushman 39 Yd pass from Baylor Romney (Jake Oldroyd Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 18TD
17 plays · 81 yds · 5:0810% → 24%
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
90.4%
Chase Cord pass complete to John Hightower for 8 yds to the BoiSt 27Similar
Q3 2:24
2ND & 2
OWN 27
+5
90.2%
George Holani run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
90.6%
BYU Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Isaiah Herron) to the BoiSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-8
90.8%
Chase Cord sacked by Dayan Ghanwoloku for a loss of 8 yards to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q3 1:09
2ND & 18
OWN 39
0
91.6%
Chase Cord pass incomplete to Khalil ShakirSimilar
Q3 1:09
3RD & 18
OWN 39
+15
91.7%
BYU Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Lorenzo Fauatea) to the BYU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
91.4%
George Holani run for 9 yds to the BYU 37Similar
Q3 0:32
2ND & 1
OPP 37
0
91.4%
Chase Cord pass incomplete to Garrett CollinghamSimilar
Q3 0:26
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+6
91.7%
Chase Cord pass complete to John Bates for 6 yds to the BYU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+8
91.3%
George Holani run for 8 yds to the BYU 23Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 2
OPP 23
+6
91.2%
George Holani run for 6 yds to the BYU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
91.6%
George Holani run for 2 yds to the BYU 15Similar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+9
92.3%
Khalil Shakir run for 9 yds to the BYU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
92.5%
George Holani run for 3 yds to the BYU 3Similar
Q4 12:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-10
92.7%
BOISE ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the BYU 13Similar
Q4 12:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+13
76.4%
Octavius Evans 13 Yd pass from Chase Cord (Chase Cord Pass to Garrett Collingham for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 1:4883% → 85%
Q4 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
83.1%
Sione Finau run for 5 yds to the BYU 42Similar
Q4 11:50
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+8
85.9%
Baylor Romney run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
50
0
86.1%
Baylor Romney run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 10
50
0
86.1%
Baylor Romney pass incomplete to Moroni Laulu-PututauSimilar
Q4 10:49
3RD & 10
50
0
85.2%
Baylor Romney pass incomplete to Matt BushmanSimilar
Q4 10:41
4TH & 10
50
0
84.8%
Jake Oldroyd punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Avery Williams at the BoiSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:2413% → 11%
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+14
87.0%
Chase Cord pass complete to Matt Pistone for 14 yds to the BoiSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
86.6%
Chase Cord pass complete to John Hightower for 3 yds to the BoiSt 31Similar
Q4 9:21
2ND & 7
OWN 31
0
87.3%
Chase Cord pass incomplete to John BatesSimilar
Q4 9:16
3RD & 7
OWN 31
0
88.2%
Chase Cord pass incomplete to Akilian ButlerSimilar
Q4 9:10
4TH & 7
OWN 31
0
89.2%
Joel Velazquez punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BYU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 2:0989% → 90%
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
88.9%
Lopini Katoa run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 48Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+3
90.3%
Lopini Katoa run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 45Similar
Q4 7:35
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+1
90.3%
Lopini Katoa run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 44Similar
Q4 7:02
4TH & 2
OPP 44
-5
90.1%
BYU Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q4 6:52
4TH & 7
OPP 49
-5
90.2%
BYU Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the BYU 46Similar
Q4 6:41
4TH & 12
OWN 46
0
89.7%
Jake Oldroyd punt for 33 yds, downed at the BoiSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 22TD
9 plays · 79 yds · 2:538% → 40%
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
91.9%
Chase Cord pass complete to George Holani for 4 yds to the BoiSt 25Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+32
91.4%
Chase Cord pass complete to Octavius Evans for 32 yds to the BYU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
90.1%
Chase Cord pass complete to Andrew Van Buren for 3 yds to the BYU 40Similar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+11
90.2%
Chase Cord pass complete to Octavius Evans for 11 yds to the BYU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
89.3%
Andrew Van Buren run for 3 yds to the BYU 26Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 7
OPP 26
0
89.7%
Chase Cord pass incomplete to Khalil ShakirSimilar
Q4 4:06
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+11
90.9%
Chase Cord run for 11 yds to the BYU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+10
90.4%
Chase Cord run for 10 yds to the BYU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
59.8%
Akilian Butler 5 Yd pass from Chase Cord (Eric Sachse Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 23END OF GAME
8 plays · 4 yds · 2:4984% → 94%
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
84.1%
Sione Finau run for 7 yds to the BYU 32Similar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
86.6%
Sione Finau run for 2 yds to the BYU 34Similar
Q4 2:18
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
86.5%
Baylor Romney run for no gain to the BYU 34Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 9
OWN 37
-5
91.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the BYU 32Similar
Q4 0:01
3RD & 14
OWN 32
-5
94.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the BYU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:17
Akilian Butler 5 Yd pass from Chase Cord (Eric Sachse Kick)
-30.6
TD · Q4 12:42
Octavius Evans 13 Yd pass from Chase Cord (Chase Cord Pass to Garrett Collingham for Two-Point Conversion)
-16.3
TD · Q3 4:49
Matt Bushman 27 Yd pass from Baylor Romney (Jake Oldroyd Kick)
+13.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com