2019 · Week 11 · Nov 9, 2019 · Albertsons Stadium
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Win probability · BOIS
modelBOIS aheadWYO aheadconfidence bandkey playBOIS scoreWYO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
OT 0:00 · Timeout BOISE ST, clock 00:00
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorTime remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 4:57: Tyler Vander Waal run for 3 yds for a TD (Cooper Rothe KICK) — WYO win probability +8.3 pts (now 28%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:35: Xazavian Valladay run for 21 yds for a TD (Cooper Rothe KICK) — WYO win probability +21.6 pts (now 62%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q4 5:37: Khalil Shakir run for 5 yds for a TD (Eric Sachse KICK) — BOIS win probability +24.8 pts (now 67%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
- FG · OT 0:00: Eric Sachse 28 yd FG GOOD WYOMING Penalty, roughing holder ( Yards) declined — BOIS win probability +17.0 pts (now 79%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
- FG · OT 0:00: Timeout BOISE ST, clock 00:00 — BOIS win probability +6.8 pts (now 83%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
BOIS made the numbers' call on 5 of 7WYO made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
- Q1 15:00WYO 4th & 14 at BOIS 40, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 13.8% before the snapGo for it13.8%−0.119% to convertField goal13.8%−<0.134% to makePuntTheir call13.9%average punt
- Q1 2:05WYO 4th & 2 at WYO 33, down 7Close callPunted · 15.4% before the snapGo for it15.5%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.5%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 15:00BOIS 4th & 10 at BOIS 39, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.0% before the snapGo for it83.8%−0.329% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call84.1%average punt
- Q2 12:57WYO 4th & 14 at WYO 30, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.4% before the snapGo for it14.9%−0.718% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.6%average punt
- Q2 9:28BOIS 4th & 6 at BOIS 16, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.9% before the snapGo for it82.5%−0.338% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.8%average punt
- Q2 4:57BOIS 4th & 2 at BOIS 33, tiedClose callPunted · 76.6% before the snapGo for it76.9%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call76.7%−0.2average punt
- Q2 0:01WYO 4th & 16 at BOIS 22, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.3% before the snapGo for it25.1%−2.115% to convertField goalTheir call27.2%72% to makePunt21.6%−5.6average punt
- Q3 14:54BOIS 4th & 7 at BOIS 20, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.0% before the snapGo for it67.4%−0.535% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call68.0%average punt
- Q3 13:48WYO 4th & 5 at WYO 48, up 3Close callPunted · 32.7% before the snapGo for it32.8%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 9:18BOIS 4th & 23 at WYO 23, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.5% before the snapGo for it59.4%−3.97% to convertField goalTheir call63.3%70% to makePunt54.9%−8.4average punt
- Q3 9:10WYO 4th & 6 at BOIS 46, tiedClose callPunted · 31.4% before the snapGo for it32.3%40% to convertField goal29.9%−2.423% to makePuntTheir call32.1%−0.2average punt
- Q3 2:30BOIS 4th & 10 at BOIS 25, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.3% before the snapGo for it43.3%−3.528% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.8%average punt
- Q4 15:00WYO 4th & 2 at midfield, up 7Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 62.1% before the snapGo for it62.9%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call61.0%−1.9average punt
- Q4 12:47BOIS 4th & 1 at BOIS 29, down 7Numbers favored go for it by 4.4 ptsPunted · 37.2% before the snapGo for it39.6%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call35.2%−4.4average punt
- Q4 12:32WYO 4th & 5 at WYO 18, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.2% before the snapGo for it62.2%−1.240% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call63.3%average punt
- Q4 0:36WYO 4th & 1 at BOIS 39, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call53.0%70% to convertField goal47.2%−5.836% to makePunt40.3%−12.7average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BOIS made the numbers' call on 2 of 2WYO made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 2:05BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.2%97% to makeGo for two84.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:57WYO Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call21.4%97% to makeGo for two21.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:35WYO Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call51.9%97% to makeGo for two51.6%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 5:37BOIS Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call52.8%97% to makeGo for two51.6%−1.345% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWYODrive 1PUNT12 plays · 35 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
BOISDrive 2TD12 plays · 92 yds · 7:1084% → 85%
Q1 9:15
3RD & 7
OWN 11
+8
84.1%
Chase Cord pass complete to Garrett Collingham for 8 yds to the BoiSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+9
84.3%
Chase Cord pass complete to John Bates for 9 yds to the BoiSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+26
84.3%
Chase Cord pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 26 yds to the Wyom 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 12
OPP 46
+10
84.5%
Chase Cord pass complete to George Holani for 10 yds to the Wyom 36Similar
Q1 2:05
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+5
84.9%
Chase Cord pass complete to Akilian Butler for 5 yds for a TD (Eric Sachse KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 3PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 16 yds · 0:1384% → 84%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-7
84.7%
Chase Cord sacked by Logan Wilson for a loss of 7 yards to the BoiSt 32Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 32
+7
84.2%
Chase Cord pass complete to George Holani for 7 yds to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
84.3%
Chase Cord run for no gain to the BoiSt 39 BOISE ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 39
+48
83.7%
Joel Velazquez punt for 48 yds , Austin Conway returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Wyom 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 5PUNT7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+22
83.8%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Austin Conway for 22 yds to the Wyom 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:57
2ND & 16
OWN 28
-10
83.9%
VANDER WAAL, T. pass complete to VALLADAY, X. for no gain to the WYO28 (NAWAHINE, Kekoa), PENALTY WYO holding 10 yards to the WYO18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:57
2ND & 26
OWN 18
-2
83.9%
Tyler Vander Waal sacked by Kekaula Kaniho for a loss of 2 yards to the Wyom 16Similar
Q2 12:57
4TH & 14
OWN 30
0
84.4%
Ryan Galovich punt for 48 yds , Avery Williams returns for no gain to the BoiSt 30 BOISE ST Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the BoiSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0084% → 83%
WYODrive 7TD8 plays · 47 yds · 2:5018% → 28%
Q2 7:47
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+11
81.5%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Josh Harshman for 11 yds to the BoiSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0077% → 76%
Q2 4:57
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
77.0%
Chase Cord pass complete to George Holani for 5 yds to the BoiSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 9FG13 plays · 30 yds · 2:5929% → 32%
Q2 3:00
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+6
70.9%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Raghib Ismail Jr. for 6 yds to the BoiSt 43Similar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+19
69.3%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Xazavian Valladay for 19 yds to the BoiSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-7
67.8%
Tyler Vander Waal sacked by Curtis Weaver for a loss of 7 yards to the BoiSt 23Similar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 17
OPP 23
-8
69.5%
Tyler Vander Waal sacked by Curtis Weaver for a loss of 8 yards to the BoiSt 31Similar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 25
OPP 31
+9
71.5%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Josh Harshman for 9 yds to the BoiSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0069% → 68%
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+3
69.2%
Chase Cord pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 3 yds to the BoiSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 12PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0035% → 33%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 13FG11 plays · 59 yds · 3:0167% → 71%
Q3 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
66.7%
John Hightower pass complete to George Holani for 4 yds to the BoiSt 22Similar
Q3 12:19
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+20
66.9%
Chase Cord pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 20 yds to the BoiSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:19
1ST & 15
OWN 37
+43
67.0%
Chase Cord pass complete to John Hightower for 43 yds to the Wyom 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:19
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+15
71.3%
CORD, Chase pass incomplete to EVANS, Octavius, PENALTY WYO pass interference (HALLIBURTON, A.) 15 yards to the WYO5, 1ST DOWN BSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
71.3%
Chase Cord pass incomplete to Octavius Evans, broken up by Tyler HallSimilar
Q3 12:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-10
71.3%
HOLANI, George rush up middle for loss of 2 yards to the WYO7 (WILSON, Logan), PENALTY BSU holding (PISTONE, Matt) 10 yards to the WYO15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-15
70.0%
Chase Cord pass incomplete to John Bates BOISE ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (CT Thomas) to the Wyom 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 14PUNT9 plays · 27 yds · 0:0031% → 32%
BOISDrive 15FUMBLE2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0071% → 72%
WYODrive 16TD4 plays · 36 yds · 1:5638% → 62%
Q3 4:31
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+13
61.7%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Raghib Ismail Jr. for 13 yds to the BoiSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0047% → 44%
WYODrive 18PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1062% → 62%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0441% → 35%
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
40.9%
Chase Cord pass complete to Akilian Butler for 3 yds to the BoiSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 20PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0067% → 65%
Q4 12:32
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+4
33.3%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Josh Harshman for 4 yds to the Wyom 18Similar
Q4 12:32
3RD & 5
OWN 18
0
33.9%
Tyler Vander Waal pass incomplete to Raghib Ismail Jr., broken up by Riley WhimpeySimilar
Q4 12:32
4TH & 5
OWN 18
0
35.5%
Ryan Galovich punt for 39 yds , Avery Williams returns for no gain to the BoiSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 21TD10 plays · 57 yds · 5:2438% → 67%
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+14
37.7%
Chase Cord pass complete to Akilian Butler for 14 yds to the Wyom 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
40.3%
Chase Cord pass complete to George Holani for 5 yds to the Wyom 38Similar
Q4 11:01
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+6
42.3%
Chase Cord pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 6 yds to the Wyom 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 22DOWNS12 plays · 35 yds · 5:0147% → 57%
Q4 5:37
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+11
50.2%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Josh Harshman for 11 yds to the Wyom 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:37
2ND & 9
OWN 43
-6
48.6%
Tyler Vander Waal run for 4 yds to the Wyom 47 WYOMING Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Wyom 37Similar
Q4 5:37
2ND & 15
OWN 37
+14
53.3%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Gunner Gentry for 14 yds to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q4 5:37
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+8
47.2%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Josh Harshman for 8 yds to the BoiSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 23INT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:2060% → 54%
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
59.8%
Chase Cord pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
50
0
62.8%
Chase Cord pass incomplete to Akilian Butler, broken up by Azizi HearnSimilar
Q4 0:31
2ND & 10
50
-2
61.9%
Chase Cord sacked by Solomon Byrd and Garrett Crall for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 48Similar
Q4 0:11
3RD & 12
OWN 48
+16
54.2%
Chase Cord pass intercepted Logan Wilson return for 16 yds to the BoiSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 24FG11 plays · 0 yds · 15:0338% → 76%
OT 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+7
64.7%
Chase Cord pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 7 yds to the Wyom 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & 6
OPP 11
+28
79.4%
Eric Sachse 28 yd FG GOOD WYOMING Penalty, roughing holder ( Yards) declinedSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+6
72.9%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Jackson Marcotte for 6 yds to the BoiSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:37
Khalil Shakir run for 5 yds for a TD (Eric Sachse KICK)
+24.8
TD · Q3 2:35
Xazavian Valladay run for 21 yds for a TD (Cooper Rothe KICK)
-21.6
FG · OT 0:00
Eric Sachse 28 yd FG GOOD WYOMING Penalty, roughing holder ( Yards) declined
+17