2014 · Week 1 · Aug 28, 2014 · Georgia Dome
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Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadBOIS aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreBOIS score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:54 · Grant Hedrick pass complete to Jay Ajayi for 15 yds to the BoiSt 47
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 5:39: Grant Hedrick pass intercepted Cody Prewitt return for 22 yds to the BoiSt 13 — BOIS win probability +7.5 pts (now 34%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
- FG · Q3 6:44: Sean Wale punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Anthony Alford at the Miss 18 — BOIS win probability +8.2 pts (now 54%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 12:20: Grant Hedrick pass incomplete — BOIS win probability +15.1 pts (now 65%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 2:50: Nathan Noble kickoff for 65 yds , Bryan Douglas return for 28 yds to the BoiSt 28 — MISS win probability +15.3 pts (now 30%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 2:30: Grant Hedrick pass complete to Jay Ajayi for 2 yds to the BoiSt 30 — BOIS win probability +17.6 pts (now 87%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
BOIS made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
- Q1 12:52BOIS 4th & 1 at BOIS 41, tiedClose callPunted · 25.8% before the snapGo for it25.8%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.7%−0.1average punt
- Q1 7:40BOIS 4th & 12 at BOIS 44, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 26.9% before the snapGo for it26.8%−0.323% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.0%average punt
- Q2 7:58BOIS 4th & 8 at MISS 8, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.5% before the snapGo for it23.7%−0.426% to convertField goalTheir call24.1%90% to makePunt19.5%−4.6average punt
- Q2 1:12BOIS 4th & 1 at BOIS 40, up 3Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 39.9% before the snapGo for it40.3%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.9%−1.5average punt
- Q3 6:44BOIS 4th & 8 at MISS 45, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.6% before the snapGo for it46.0%−0.534% to convertField goal43.9%−2.525% to makePuntTheir call46.5%average punt
- Q3 1:02BOIS 4th & 8 at MISS 26, up 6Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.1% before the snapGo for it60.8%−1.133% to convertField goalTheir call62.0%64% to makePunt51.0%−11.0average punt
- Q4 7:56BOIS 4th & 19 at BOIS 43, up 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.1% before the snapGo for it65.7%−6.711% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call72.4%average punt
- Q4 5:00BOIS 4th & 2 at MISS 16, up 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call78.9%56% to convertField goal76.8%−2.181% to makePunt66.1%−12.8average punt
- Q4 0:54BOIS 4th & 28 at BOIS 32, up 6Numbers favored punt by 2.6 ptsWent for it · 88.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call86.4%−2.66% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt89.0%average punt
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartBOISDrive 1PUNT6 plays · 21 yds · 1:3823% → 23%
Q1 13:55
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+2
77.1%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 2 yds to the BoiSt 38Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+3
77.0%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Jay Ajayi for 3 yds to the BoiSt 41Similar
Q1 12:52
4TH & 1
OWN 41
0
76.9%
Sean Wale punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Anthony Alford at the Miss 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 2PUNT9 plays · 25 yds · 2:5024% → 24%
Q1 10:00
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+20
76.2%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Jake Roh for 20 yds to the BoiSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
76.0%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 5 yds to the BoiSt 41Similar
Q1 9:05
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+5
75.7%
OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive Offside (Robert Nkemdiche) to the BoiSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
3RD & 12
OWN 44
0
75.4%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Jay Ajayi for no gain to the BoiSt 44Similar
Q1 7:40
4TH & 12
OWN 44
0
75.6%
Sean Wale punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Anthony Alford at the Miss 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 3PUNT7 plays · 33 yds · 3:1025% → 26%
Q1 7:00
1ST & 15
OWN 41
+32
75.0%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Jay Ajayi for 32 yds to the Miss 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-3
74.3%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 30Similar
Q1 6:20
2ND & 13
OPP 30
+26
74.3%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Matt Miller for 22 yds to the Miss 8 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, Personal Foul (Serderius Bryant) to the Miss 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
73.7%
Jay Ajayi run for no gain to the Miss 4 Jay Ajayi fumbled, recovered by BoiStSimilar
Q1 4:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
73.6%
Grant Hedrick pass intercepted, touchback. Senquez Golson return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 4INT6 plays · 0 yds · 1:0523% → 23%
BOISDrive 5INT13 plays · 51 yds · 4:4723% → 27%
Q2 12:00
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+14
76.2%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Matt Miller for 14 yds to the Miss 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+23
75.6%
Shane Williams-Rhodes run for 23 yds to the Miss 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:06
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+6
74.8%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 6 yds to the Miss 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 6TD2 plays · 80 yds · 0:2126% → 34%
BOISDrive 7INT7 plays · 11 yds · 3:0835% → 38%
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
63.3%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 3 yds to the BoiSt 34Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+5
62.7%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 5 yds to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q2 1:12
4TH & 1
OWN 40
0
61.7%
Sean Wale punt for 48 yds , Markell Pack returns for no gain to the Miss 40 OLE MISS Penalty, Illegal Block (6 Yards) to the Miss 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 8INT1 play · 16 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 9FG11 plays · 65 yds · 3:3641% → 54%
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
58.9%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Matt Miller for 11 yds to the BoiSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 13
OWN 28
+15
57.3%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Matt Miller for 15 yds to the BoiSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+5
54.3%
OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Miss 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
53.3%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 4 yds to the Miss 43Similar
Q3 6:44
4TH & 8
OPP 45
0
46.5%
Sean Wale punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Anthony Alford at the Miss 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 10PUNT9 plays · 35 yds · 3:1357% → 61%
Q3 3:45
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+2
41.9%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Matt Miller for 2 yds to the BoiSt 37Similar
Q3 3:40
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+20
42.0%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Matt Miller for 20 yds to the Miss 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
39.3%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 4 yds to the Miss 39Similar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
37.7%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for no gain to the Miss 28Similar
Q3 1:55
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+5
36.2%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 5 yds to the Miss 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 11INT7 plays · 2 yds · 1:3965% → 68%
Q4 11:55
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+9
35.1%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Jake Roh for 9 yds to the BoiSt 25Similar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-2
33.3%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 25Similar
Q4 10:41
2ND & 17
OWN 20
0
31.9%
Grant Hedrick pass intercepted Tony Conner return for no gain to the BoiSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 12INT7 plays · -7 yds · 1:4970% → 70%
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
27.1%
Hedrick, Grant pass incomplete to Miller, Matt, PENALTY OLEMISS pass interference 10 yards to the OLEMISS48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BOISEST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
25.8%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Jay Ajayi for 2 yds to the Miss 46Similar
Q4 8:10
3RD & 4
OPP 42
-15
25.4%
Grant Hedrick sacked by Deterrian Shackelford for a loss of 15 yards to the BoiSt 43Similar
Q4 7:56
4TH & 19
OWN 43
0
30.1%
Sean Wale punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Anthony Alford at the Miss 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 13PUNT13 plays · 20 yds · 2:5476% → 85%
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
24.2%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Jay Ajayi for 7 yds to the BoiSt 34Similar
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
20.3%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Jay Ajayi for 11 yds to the Miss 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:50
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+16
18.8%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 16 yds to the Miss 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
4TH & 2
OPP 16
+4
20.5%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 4 yds to the Miss 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
15.0%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 4 yds to the Miss 8Similar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+8
15.0%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Jay Ajayi for 8 yds for a TD, (Dan Goodale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 14PUNT7 plays · 16 yds · 1:3687% → 89%
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
12.7%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Jay Ajayi for 2 yds to the BoiSt 30Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 7
OPP 47
-6
8.6%
Grant Hedrick sacked by John Youngblood for a loss of 6 yards to the BoiSt 47Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 13
OWN 47
-15
9.6%
Grant Hedrick sacked by Marquis Haynes for a loss of 15 yards to the BoiSt 32Similar
Q4 0:54
4TH & 28
OWN 32
+15
11.1%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Jay Ajayi for 15 yds to the BoiSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+88.9
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:30
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Jay Ajayi for 2 yds to the BoiSt 30
-17.6
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:50
Nathan Noble kickoff for 65 yds , Bryan Douglas return for 28 yds to the BoiSt 28
+15.3