Boise State

Profile vs. FBS, 2022

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2077th
  Defense+0.0378th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense44.1%62nd
  Defense35.4%95th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2135th
  Defense+1.2546th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1777th
  Defense+0.0655th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2975th
  Defense+0.1079th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense49.3%65th
  Defense43.1%86th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense31.7%53rd
  Defense21.1%99th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.3989th
  Defense2.9664th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense13.6%87th
  Defense14.9%28th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense15.3%59th
  Defense17.2%64th

Percentiles among the 131 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2022

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Boise State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   ORST
2. W
   UNM
3. W
   UTM
4. L
   UTEP
5. W
   SDSU
6. W
   FRES
7. W
   AF
8. W
   CSU
9. L
   BYU
10. W
    NEV
11. W
    WYO
12. W
    USU
13. L
    FRES
14. W
    UNT

Bars above the line: better than expected for Boise State.

Players, 2022

1. Taylen GreenQB276 plays · +0.272 pts/play · 49th of 234 QBs
   1.40WAR0.79 to 2.00
2. Ashton JeantyRB112 plays · +0.152 pts/play · 87th of 384 RBs
   0.32WAR0.23 to 0.41
3. George HolaniRB145 plays · +0.097 pts/play · 111th of 384 RBs
   0.26WAR0.15 to 0.39
4. Hank BachmeierQB50 plays · +0.231 pts/play · 171st of 234 QBs
   0.22WAR0.12 to 0.32
5. Jonah DalmasPK19 plays · +0.390 pts/play · 7th of 110 kickers
   0.14WAR0.09 to 0.18
6. Latrell CaplesWR42 plays · +0.147 pts/play · 185th of 455 WRs
   0.12WAR0.05 to 0.18
7. Billy BowensWR31 plays · +0.142 pts/play · 255th of 455 WRs
   0.08WAR0.03 to 0.13
8. Stefan CobbsWR23 plays · +0.163 pts/play · 285th of 455 WRs
   0.07WAR0.02 to 0.12

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Boise State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2022

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  53453472nd of 129Roster talent: 534, 72nd of 129 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  17317365th of 129Recruiting: 173, 65th of 129 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  65%65%51st of 128Returning production: 65%, 51st of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +5.7+5.752nd of 129SP+ rating: +5.7, 52nd of 129 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 129 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2022

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Boise State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 4 clear-cut ones account for 0.18 of the 0.25 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs UNTQ4 1:20 4th & 4 at UNT 34, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−6.3 pts
2. vs UTMQ4 2:15 4th & 5 at BOIS 39, down 6Punted; the numbers favored going for it−6.1 pts
3. vs USUQ4 5:28 4th & 2 at USU 47, up 5Punted; the numbers favored going for it−3.0 pts
4. at WYOQ4 2:16 4th & 5 at WYO 44, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−3.0 pts
5. vs FRESQ2 0:02 4th & 4 at FRES 30, down 11Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
6. vs BYUQ3 2:58 4th & 3 at BOIS 44, up 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts
7. vs FRESQ3 6:05 4th & 5 at FRES 45, down 5Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts
8. vs USUQ4 13:40 4th & 2 at BOIS 46, up 11Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2022

95th of 131 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Boise State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   ORST
2. W

   UNM
3. W

   UTM
4. L

   UTEP
5. W

   SDSU
6. W

   FRES
7. W

   AF
8. W

   CSU
9. L

   BYU
10. W

    NEV
11. W

    WYO
12. W

    USU
13. L

    FRES
14. W

    UNT

What moved it, 2022

Every game starts at Boise State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+0.04
• Possession & field position−0.05
• Timeouts+0.03
• Other−0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−1.60

Game by game

• ORSTL 17-34 at ORST46% → 1%Before kickoff −4 · On the field −45: Scoreboard −41
• UNMW 31-14 at UNM87% → 98%Before kickoff +37 · On the field +11: Scoreboard +23, Clock +1
• UTMW 30-7 vs UTM95% → 20%Before kickoff +45 · On the field −76: Scoreboard −31, Clock −2
• UTEPL 10-27 at UTEP87% → 1%Before kickoff +37 · On the field −86: Scoreboard −53, Possession & field position −1
• SDSUW 35-13 vs SDSU72% → 100%Before kickoff +22 · On the field +28: Scoreboard +32
• FRESW 40-20 vs FRES75% → 100%Before kickoff +25 · On the field +25: Scoreboard +28, Timeouts +1
• AFW 19-14 at AF44% → 94%Before kickoff −6 · On the field +50: Scoreboard +54, Clock +3
• CSUW 49-10 vs CSU95% → 100%Before kickoff +45 · On the field +5: Scoreboard +7
• BYUL 28-31 vs BYU75% → 25%Before kickoff +25 · On the field −50: Scoreboard −32, Possession & field position −4
• NEVW 41-3 at NEV93% → 100%Before kickoff +43 · On the field +7: Scoreboard +11
• WYOW 20-17 at WYO87% → 93%Before kickoff +37 · On the field +6: Scoreboard +26, Clock +2
• USUW 42-23 vs USU87% → 98%Before kickoff +37 · On the field +11: Scoreboard +18
• FRESL 16-28 vs FRES57% → 2%Before kickoff +7 · On the field −55: Scoreboard −53, Clock −3
• UNTW 35-32 vs UNT80% → 89%Before kickoff +30 · On the field +8: Scoreboard +16, Possession & field position +3

Points of win probability, from Boise State's side.

Closest call

BOIS 59-52 CSU (2017) - Boise State dropped to a 2.5% win probability before pulling it out.