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UNT

North Texas 32 at Boise State 35

BOIS
2022 · Frisco Bowl · Dec 17, 2022 · Toyota Stadium
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Win probability · BOIS
modelBOIS aheadUNT aheadconfidence bandkey playBOIS scoreUNT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:22 · James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 37 yds, downed at the NoTex 5
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 173Pregame prior+1.9Home team on offense+13.1Garbage-time factor+6.1Score differential+1.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.5Blowout margin−1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 8:32: Jake Roberts 17 Yd pass from Stone Earle (Ethan Mooney Kick) — UNT win probability +17.8 pts (now 46%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:35: Eric McAlister 24 Yd pass from Taylen Green (Jonah Dalmas Kick) — BOIS win probability +15.4 pts (now 79%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:14: Jyaire Shorter 30 Yd pass from Austin Aune (Ethan Mooney Kick) — UNT win probability +19.1 pts (now 50%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:25: Taylen Green 19 Yd Run (Jonah Dalmas Kick) — BOIS win probability +16.9 pts (now 79%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:17: Ikaika Ragsdale 5 Yd Run (Austin Aune Run for Two-Point Conversion) — UNT win probability +23.3 pts (now 35%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BOIS made the numbers' call on 7 of 8UNT made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 11:28UNT 4th & 2 at BOIS 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    22.5%−0.1
    86% to make
    Punt
    22.0%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:24UNT 4th & 9 at BOIS 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.0%
    89% to make
    Punt
    22.4%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:14BOIS 4th & 2 at UNT 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    74.3%−0.3
    56% to make
    Punt
    74.0%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:49UNT 4th & 8 at UNT 49, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:21BOIS 4th & 8 at BOIS 21, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.6%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:58BOIS 4th & 7 at UNT 7, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.4%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    66.2%−4.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:43BOIS 4th & 5 at UNT 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.7%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.9%
    75% to make
    Punt
    54.9%−6.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:13UNT 4th & 6 at UNT 29, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.4%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:00BOIS 4th & 10 at BOIS 40, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.0%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:04UNT 4th & 14 at BOIS 46, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%−2.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    35.4%−2.5
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    37.9%
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:05BOIS 4th & 1 at UNT 1, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    68.9%−5.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    55.1%−19.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:17UNT 4th & 3 at BOIS 25, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    9.5%−0.4
    66% to make
    Punt
    6.2%−3.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:22BOIS 4th & 12 at UNT 42, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.9%−0.4
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    77.9%−0.4
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    78.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:24UNT 4th & 11 at UNT 4, down 3
    Close callPunted · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.7%
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.3%−0.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:20BOIS 4th & 4 at UNT 34, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 6.3 ptsPunted · 89.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    87.1%−2.0
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    82.8%−6.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BOIS made the numbers' call on 3 of 4UNT made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q2 7:38UNT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 12:40BOIS Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    72.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    72.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:32UNT Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:35BOIS Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:14UNT Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:25BOIS Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:05BOIS Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:17UNT Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    21.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    20.6%−0.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNTDrive 1FG
14 plays · 60 yds · 5:2620% → 21%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+14
80.4%
Aune, Austin pass incomplete to Gumms, Var'Keyes, PENALTY BOISEST pass interference 14 yards to the NORTHTEXAS45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NORTHTEXAS.Similar
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
80.3%
Austin Aune pass complete to Roderic Burns for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 43Similar
Q1 14:02
2ND & 12
OWN 43
-3
80.2%
Austin Aune pass complete to Ikaika Ragsdale for a loss of 3 yards to the NoTex 40Similar
Q1 13:34
3RD & 15
OWN 40
+40
80.1%
Austin Aune pass complete to Damon Ward Jr. for 40 yds to the BoiSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
79.8%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 18Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 8
OPP 18
-5
79.7%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BoiSt 23Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 13
OPP 23
+4
79.6%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jake Roberts for 4 yds to the BoiSt 19Similar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 9
OPP 19
+7
79.4%
Austin Aune pass complete to Roderic Burns for 7 yds to the BoiSt 12Similar
Q1 11:28
4TH & 2
OPP 12
+6
79.4%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
79.0%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 3Similar
Q1 10:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
78.8%
Austin Aune run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 4Similar
Q1 9:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
78.7%
Kaylon Horton run for a loss of 5 yards to the BoiSt 9Similar
Q1 9:24
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
78.6%
Ethan Mooney 27 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 2DOWNS
14 plays · 43 yds · 6:0279% → 76%
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
78.5%
George Holani run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 32Similar
Q1 8:43
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+7
78.3%
George Holani run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
78.3%
George Holani run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 41Similar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 8
OWN 41
-5
78.4%
BOISE ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BoiSt 36Similar
Q1 7:28
2ND & 13
OWN 36
+8
77.8%
Taylen Green run for 8 yds to the BoiSt 44Similar
Q1 6:59
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+6
77.9%
Taylen Green pass complete to Billy Bowens for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
50
+2
78.0%
George Holani run for 2 yds to the NoTex 48Similar
Q1 6:06
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+6
77.8%
Ashton Jeanty run for 6 yds to the NoTex 42Similar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+4
77.5%
Ashton Jeanty run for 4 yds to the NoTex 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
77.5%
Ashton Jeanty run for 4 yds to the NoTex 34Similar
Q1 4:29
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+2
77.6%
Ashton Jeanty run for 2 yds to the NoTex 32Similar
Q1 3:50
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+2
77.0%
George Holani run for 2 yds to the NoTex 30Similar
Q1 3:14
4TH & 2
OPP 30
+1
76.4%
George Holani run for 1 yd to the NoTex 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:1324% → 25%
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+18
75.9%
Ayo Adeyi run for 18 yds to the NoTex 47 Ayo Adeyi fumbled, recovered by NoTex Ayo Adeyi for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
75.3%
Ayo Adeyi run for 2 yds to the NoTex 49Similar
Q1 2:29
2ND & 8
OWN 49
0
74.8%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for no gain to the NoTex 49Similar
Q1 1:56
3RD & 8
OWN 49
0
74.7%
Austin Aune pass incomplete to Jordan SmartSimilar
Q1 1:49
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
75.4%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Latrell Caples at the BoiSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2175% → 74%
Q1 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-4
75.1%
Taylen Green pass complete to George Holani for a loss of 4 yards to the BoiSt 15Similar
Q1 1:08
2ND & 14
OWN 15
+6
74.7%
George Holani run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 21Similar
Q1 0:30
3RD & 8
OWN 21
0
74.1%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Billy BowensSimilar
Q1 0:21
4TH & 8
OWN 21
0
73.7%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Roderic Burns at the NoTex 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 5INT
11 plays · 32 yds · 2:5826% → 28%
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-4
74.3%
Austin Aune pass complete to Kaylon Horton for a loss of 4 yards to the NoTex 30Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 14
OWN 30
+14
74.1%
Austin Aune pass complete to Damon Ward Jr. for 14 yds to the NoTex 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
73.0%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+2
72.5%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 47Similar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+2
72.3%
Ayo Adeyi run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
72.0%
Stone Earle pass complete to Kaylon Horton for 4 yds to the BoiSt 41Similar
Q2 13:01
2ND & 6
OPP 41
0
71.9%
Stone Earle pass incomplete to Kaylon Horton, broken up by Gabe HunterSimilar
Q2 12:56
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+7
72.1%
Austin Aune pass complete to Var'Keyes Gumms for 7 yds to the BoiSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
71.3%
Austin Aune pass incomplete to Damon Ward Jr., broken up by Tyric LeBeaufSimilar
Q2 12:31
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
71.3%
Austin Aune pass incomplete to Ja'Mori Maclin, broken up by Jaylen ClarkSimilar
Q2 12:17
3RD & 10
OPP 34
-52
71.7%
Austin Aune pass intercepted Ezekiel Noa return for 52 yds to the NoTex 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 6FG
8 plays · 8 yds · 2:1375% → 75%
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+8
75.3%
Ashton Jeanty run for 8 yds to the NoTex 7Similar
Q2 11:33
2ND & 2
OPP 7
-10
75.1%
Jeanty, Ashton rush for 2 yards to the NORTHTEXAS5, PENALTY BOISEST holding (Randolph, Mason) 10 yards to the NORTHTEXAS17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:12
2ND & 12
OPP 17
0
75.0%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Davis KoetterSimilar
Q2 11:02
3RD & 12
OPP 17
+7
74.0%
Green, Taylen pass pass intercepted by Wilson, Logan at the NORTHTEXAS3, Wilson, Logan return 24 yards to the NORTHTEXAS27, PENALTY NORTHTEXAS pass interference (Whitlock, Quinn) 7 yards to the NORTHTEXAS10, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BOISEST.Similar
Q2 10:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
74.9%
Ashton Jeanty run for 3 yds to the NoTex 7Similar
Q2 10:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
74.7%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Billy Bowens, broken up by DeShawn GaddieSimilar
Q2 10:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
73.9%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Stefan CobbsSimilar
Q2 9:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
75.2%
Jonah Dalmas 24 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 7TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 2:1127% → 39%
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+53
72.9%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jordan Smart for 53 yds to the BoiSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+8
70.7%
Ayo Adeyi run for 8 yds to the BoiSt 4Similar
Q2 8:48
2ND & 2
OPP 4
+1
70.4%
Ayo Adeyi run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 3Similar
Q2 8:20
3RD & 1
OPP 3
+2
70.8%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
69.3%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for no gain to the BoiSt 1Similar
Q2 7:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
61.3%
Ikaika Ragsdale 1 Yd Run (Ethan Mooney Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 8FG
7 plays · 55 yds · 2:4764% → 68%
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
64.2%
Taylen Green pass complete to Latrell Caples for 18 yds to the BoiSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+32
65.4%
Taylen Green pass complete to Latrell Caples for 32 yds to the NoTex 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
67.1%
Taylen Green pass complete to George Holani for 2 yds to the NoTex 23Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+2
66.6%
Ashton Jeanty run for 2 yds to the NoTex 21Similar
Q2 5:26
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+1
65.0%
Taylen Green pass complete to Latrell Caples for 1 yd to the NoTex 20Similar
Q2 4:43
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+37
68.3%
Jonah Dalmas 37 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1933% → 34%
Q2 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
66.6%
Ayo Adeyi run for 2 yds to the NoTex 27Similar
Q2 4:08
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
66.2%
Ayo Adeyi run for 2 yds to the NoTex 29Similar
Q2 3:22
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
66.4%
Austin Aune pass incomplete to Jake RobertsSimilar
Q2 3:13
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
66.5%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BoiSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:0866% → 64%
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
66.1%
Ashton Jeanty run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 24Similar
Q2 2:38
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+16
65.5%
Ashton Jeanty run for 16 yds to the BoiSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
67.3%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Billy BowensSimilar
Q2 2:19
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
66.1%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Eric McAlisterSimilar
Q2 2:07
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
65.2%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Eric McAlisterSimilar
Q2 2:00
4TH & 10
OWN 40
0
63.6%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoTex 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 11PUNT
11 plays · 18 yds · 1:4837% → 37%
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
62.9%
Austin Aune pass complete to Ikaika Ragsdale for 11 yds to the NoTex 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
61.5%
Austin Aune pass complete to Ikaika Ragsdale for 4 yds to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+4
60.8%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 45Similar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+3
60.8%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
60.1%
Austin Aune pass incomplete to Jordan Smart, broken up by Jaylen ClarkSimilar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+1
60.3%
Austin Aune pass complete to Qualon Farrar for 1 yd to the BoiSt 41Similar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 9
OPP 41
-5
60.5%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, False Start (Jett Duncan) to the BoiSt 46Similar
Q2 0:12
3RD & 14
OPP 46
0
61.3%
Austin Aune pass incomplete to Damon Ward Jr., broken up by Scott MatlockSimilar
Q2 0:04
4TH & 14
OPP 46
0
62.9%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Latrell Caples at the BoiSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-1
63.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 13TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:1164% → 77%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+34
63.8%
Ashton Jeanty run for 34 yds to the NoTex 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:23
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+20
66.9%
Taylen Green run for 20 yds to the NoTex 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+19
68.1%
Ashton Jeanty run for 19 yds to the NoTex 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
67.9%
Ashton Jeanty run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 3Similar
Q3 12:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
67.2%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Riley SmithSimilar
Q3 12:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
76.5%
Taylen Green 3 Yd Run (Connor Riddle Pass to Mason Hutton for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 14TD
12 plays · 71 yds · 3:5726% → 46%
Q3 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+10
73.8%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 10 yds to the NoTex 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
72.8%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 4 yds to the NoTex 43Similar
Q3 11:44
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+2
71.4%
Ayo Adeyi run for 2 yds to the NoTex 45Similar
Q3 11:02
3RD & 4
OWN 45
-15
72.1%
Aune, Austin pass complete to Ragsdale, Ikaika for 11 yards to the BOISEST44, PENALTY NORTHTEXAS illegal block 15 yards to the NORTHTEXAS30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:43
3RD & 19
OWN 30
+21
76.5%
Austin Aune pass complete to Roderic Burns for 21 yds to the BoiSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
71.9%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 42Similar
Q3 9:55
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+5
71.5%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
71.7%
Austin Aune pass incomplete to Jyaire Shorter, broken up by Jaylen ClarkSimilar
Q3 9:22
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+5
71.7%
Ayo Adeyi run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 32Similar
Q3 9:06
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+15
71.5%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 15 yds to the BoiSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
53.7%
Jake Roberts 17 Yd pass from Stone Earle (Ethan Mooney Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 15TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:5161% → 79%
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
60.5%
Ashton Jeanty run for 18 yds to the BoiSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+16
63.4%
Taylen Green run for 16 yds to the NoTex 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
64.4%
Taylen Green run for no gain to the NoTex 41Similar
Q3 7:01
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+17
63.9%
Taylen Green pass complete to Latrell Caples for 17 yds to the NoTex 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
79.3%
Eric McAlister 24 Yd pass from Taylen Green (Jonah Dalmas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 16TD
5 plays · 51 yds · 1:0229% → 50%
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
71.1%
Ayo Adeyi run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+16
70.7%
Ayo Adeyi run for 16 yds to the BoiSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
69.6%
Ayo Adeyi run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 30Similar
Q3 5:14
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+30
50.4%
Jyaire Shorter 30 Yd pass from Austin Aune (Ethan Mooney Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 17TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:4059% → 79%
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
58.6%
Ashton Jeanty run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 29Similar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
58.5%
Ashton Jeanty run for 8 yds to the BoiSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
59.0%
Ashton Jeanty run for 12 yds to the BoiSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-10
61.5%
Noa, Elelyon rush for 21 yards to the NORTHTEXAS30, PENALTY BOISEST holding (Smith, Riley) 10 yards to the BOISEST39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:26
1ST & 20
OWN 39
+5
58.1%
Taylen Green pass complete to Riley Smith for 5 yds to the BoiSt 44Similar
Q3 2:44
2ND & 15
OWN 44
+11
57.1%
Taylen Green run for 11 yds to the NoTex 45Similar
Q3 2:33
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+10
60.9%
Taylen Green pass complete to Ashton Jeanty for 10 yds to the NoTex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
63.3%
Ashton Jeanty run for 2 yds to the NoTex 33Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+16
62.8%
Taylen Green pass complete to Latrell Caples for 16 yds to the NoTex 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
62.7%
Taylen Green pass complete to Latrell Caples for 3 yds to the NoTex 14Similar
Q3 0:57
2ND & 7
OPP 14
-5
62.5%
BOISE ST Penalty, False Start (Matt Lauter) to the NoTex 19Similar
Q3 0:25
2ND & 12
OPP 19
+19
79.4%
Taylen Green 19 Yd Run (Jonah Dalmas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 18INT
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:5627% → 29%
Q3 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
72.8%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 4 yds to the NoTex 33Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+7
71.8%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 7 yds to the NoTex 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-38
70.9%
Austin Aune pass intercepted Jaylen Clark return for 38 yds to the NoTex 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 19TD
6 plays · 30 yds · 2:0480% → 90%
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+21
79.5%
Taylen Green run for 21 yds to the NoTex 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
79.5%
BOISE ST Penalty, False Start (Latrell Caples) to the NoTex 14Similar
Q4 13:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
+10
79.4%
Ashton Jeanty run for 10 yds to the NoTex 4Similar
Q4 13:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
79.5%
Taylen Green run for 3 yds to the NoTex 1Similar
Q4 12:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
78.1%
Ashton Jeanty run for no gain to the NoTex 1Similar
Q4 12:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
89.7%
Ashton Jeanty 1 Yd Run (Jonah Dalmas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 20TD
12 plays · 90 yds · 3:2910% → 35%
Q4 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+14
89.6%
Austin Aune pass complete to Ikaika Ragsdale for 14 yds to the NoTex 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
89.5%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jordan Smart for 3 yds to the NoTex 27Similar
Q4 11:09
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+3
89.0%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 3 yds to the NoTex 30Similar
Q4 10:32
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+38
90.6%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jordan Smart for 38 yds to the BoiSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
87.8%
Ayo Adeyi run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 29Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 7
OPP 29
0
87.5%
Austin Aune pass incomplete to Var'Keyes GummsSimilar
Q4 9:58
3RD & 7
OPP 29
+4
88.8%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 25Similar
Q4 9:17
4TH & 3
OPP 25
+13
90.5%
Stone Earle run for 13 yds to the BoiSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
88.3%
Stone Earle pass incomplete to Jordan SmartSimilar
Q4 8:53
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+7
88.3%
Stone Earle run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 5Similar
Q4 8:17
3RD & 3
OPP 5
+5
65.1%
Ikaika Ragsdale 5 Yd Run (Austin Aune Run for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 21PUNT
15 plays · 33 yds · 4:5275% → 82%
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
75.0%
Ashton Jeanty run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q4 7:41
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
75.0%
Taylen Green run for 8 yds to the BoiSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
75.8%
Ashton Jeanty run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 40Similar
Q4 6:43
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+9
77.2%
Taylen Green run for 9 yds to the BoiSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
78.8%
Ashton Jeanty run for 3 yds to the NoTex 48Similar
Q4 5:52
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+1
79.3%
Taylen Green run for 1 yd to the NoTex 47Similar
Q4 5:23
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+7
78.2%
Taylen Green pass complete to Billy Bowens for 7 yds to the NoTex 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
80.3%
Ashton Jeanty run for no gain to the NoTex 40Similar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-5
82.3%
BOISE ST Penalty, False Start (Cade Beresford) to the NoTex 45Similar
Q4 3:59
2ND & 15
OPP 45
0
82.4%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Latrell CaplesSimilar
Q4 3:53
3RD & 15
OPP 45
+8
80.8%
Ashton Jeanty run for 8 yds to the NoTex 37Similar
Q4 3:32
4TH & 7
OPP 37
-5
83.4%
BOISE ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the NoTex 42Similar
Q4 3:22
4TH & 12
OPP 42
0
81.7%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 37 yds, downed at the NoTex 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:5326% → 21%
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
74.2%
Austin Aune pass incomplete to Damon Ward Jr.Similar
Q4 3:17
2ND & 10
OWN 5
-2
74.4%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, False Start (Ja'Mori Maclin) to the NoTex 3Similar
Q4 3:12
2ND & 12
OWN 3
+1
74.4%
Ayo Adeyi run for 1 yd to the NoTex 4Similar
Q4 2:31
3RD & 11
OWN 4
0
79.2%
Austin Aune pass incomplete to Kaylon Horton, broken up by Alexander TeubnerSimilar
Q4 2:24
4TH & 11
OWN 4
0
79.1%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Latrell Caples at the NoTex 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:0089% → 91%
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
88.5%
Ashton Jeanty run for 4 yds to the NoTex 36Similar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+3
89.4%
Ashton Jeanty run for 3 yds to the NoTex 33Similar
Q4 1:31
3RD & 3
OPP 33
-1
91.1%
Ashton Jeanty run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 34Similar
Q4 1:20
4TH & 4
OPP 34
0
90.8%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 19 yds, downed at the NoTex 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 24Uncategorized
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:1313% → 12%
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
87.2%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:06
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+1
87.5%
Austin Aune run for 1 yd to the NoTex 16Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 9
OWN 16
0
88.2%
Austin Aune pass incomplete to Var'Keyes Gumms, broken up by Seyi OladipoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:17
Ikaika Ragsdale 5 Yd Run (Austin Aune Run for Two-Point Conversion)
-23.3
TD · Q3 5:14
Jyaire Shorter 30 Yd pass from Austin Aune (Ethan Mooney Kick)
-19.1
TD · Q3 8:32
Jake Roberts 17 Yd pass from Stone Earle (Ethan Mooney Kick)
-17.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com