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BOIS

Boise State 41 at Nevada 3

NEV
2022 · Week 11 · Nov 12, 2022 · Mackay Stadium
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Win probability · NEV
modelNEV aheadBOIS aheadconfidence bandkey playNEV scoreBOIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:54 · run for 8 yds to the Nevad 18 fumbled, recovered by BoiSt Connor Riddle Connor Riddle fumbled, recovered by BoiSt Jonah Dalmas , return for 1 yd to the Nevad 18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+59.5+29.80−29.8−59.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 22Pregame prior−41.7Home team on offense−2.1Score differential−0.6Garbage-time factor−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:14: Taylen Green run for 9 yds for a TD, (Jonah Dalmas KICK) — BOIS win probability +0.9 pts (now 92%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:26: George Holani run for 49 yds for a TD, (Jonah Dalmas KICK) — BOIS win probability +3.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:00: Brandon Talton 26 yd FG GOOD — NEV win probability +1.9 pts (now 8%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 10:34: Jonah Dalmas 35 yd FG GOOD — BOIS win probability +1.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:44: George Holani run for 9 yds for a TD, (Jonah Dalmas KICK) — BOIS win probability +2.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NEV made the numbers' call on 12 of 12BOIS made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 9:41NEV 4th & 7 at BOIS 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.6%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.7%
    72% to make
    Punt
    11.3%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:54BOIS 4th & 9 at NEV 9, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 87.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.7%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    87.8%
    89% to make
    Punt
    87.0%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:54BOIS 4th & 9 at NEV 9, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 87.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.7%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    87.8%
    89% to make
    Punt
    87.0%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:55NEV 4th & 16 at NEV 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.7%−0.4
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:01NEV 4th & 18 at NEV 18, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.1%−0.8
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:06BOIS 4th & 13 at BOIS 39, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.0%−0.7
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:22NEV 4th & 10 at NEV 20, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.3%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:33NEV 4th & 3 at BOIS 43, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    7.8%−0.5
    28% to make
    Punt
    8.0%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:04NEV 4th & 10 at BOIS 38, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.2%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    8.1%−0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    8.1%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:46BOIS 4th & 9 at NEV 9, up 21
    Close callWent for it · 93.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.3%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    93.5%
    89% to make
    Punt
    92.0%−1.5
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:00NEV 4th & 7 at BOIS 9, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.6%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.7%
    89% to make
    Punt
    6.1%−1.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:02NEV 4th & 20 at NEV 19, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.2%−1.3
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:34BOIS 4th & 13 at NEV 18, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.6%−1.1
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.7%
    79% to make
    Punt
    88.9%−3.8
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:08NEV 4th & 12 at NEV 28, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.6%−0.9
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.5%
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:55NEV 4th & 1 at NEV 45, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.7%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q3 1:48NEV 4th & 8 at BOIS 38, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%−<0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:56BOIS 4th & 8 at NEV 14, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.4%
    84% to make
    Punt
    99.0%−0.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 12:42NEV 4th & 4 at BOIS 36, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:02BOIS 4th & 3 at NEV 31, up 38
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    99.6%−0.2
    average punt
  20. Q4 6:02BOIS 4th & 7 at NEV 23, up 38
    Close callWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.7%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%
    70% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BOIS made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 12:51BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:14BOIS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:26BOIS Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:44BOIS Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:01BOIS Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BOISDrive 1TD
7 plays · 79 yds · 2:0493% → 93%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
6.8%
George Holani run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 26Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+3
6.8%
George Holani run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 29Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+15
6.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Holani,George pass incomplete short left to Green,Taylen PENALTY Nevada Pass Interference (Dedman,Jaden) 15 yards from Boise29 to Boise44, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+13
6.8%
Taylen Green run for 13 yds to the Nevad 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+12
6.8%
Taylen Green pass complete to Billy Bowens for 12 yds to the Nevad 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
7.2%
Taylen Green pass complete to Billy Bowens for 31 yds for a TD, (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 2MISSED FG
7 plays · 41 yds · 3:047% → 8%
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
7.3%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the Nevad 38Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+37
7.3%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Carlton Brown III for 37 yds to the BoiSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
7.4%
Shane Illingworth run for no gain to the BoiSt 25Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+4
7.4%
Shane Illingworth run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 21Similar
Q1 12:45
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+1
7.3%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Devonte Lee for 1 yd to the BoiSt 22Similar
Q1 9:41
4TH & 7
OPP 22
+40
8.1%
Brandon Talton 40 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Kaonohi KanihoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 3DOWNS
9 plays · 45 yds · 2:4792% → 91%
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
7.9%
Ashton Jeanty run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 38Similar
Q1 9:41
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+17
7.9%
Taylen Green pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 17 yds to the Nevad 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
7.9%
George Holani run for no gain to the Nevad 45Similar
Q1 9:41
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+35
7.9%
Taylen Green pass complete to Eric McAlister for 35 yds to the Nevad 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
7.9%
George Holani run for 1 yd to the Nevad 9Similar
Q1 9:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
7.9%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Eric McAlisterSimilar
Q1 9:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
7.9%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Eric McAlisterSimilar
Q1 6:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
8.6%
run for 8 yds to the Nevad 18 fumbled, recovered by BoiSt Connor Riddle Connor Riddle fumbled, recovered by BoiSt Jonah Dalmas , return for 1 yd to the Nevad 18Similar
Q1 6:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
8.6%
run for 8 yds to the Nevad 18 fumbled, recovered by BoiSt Connor Riddle Connor Riddle fumbled, recovered by BoiSt Jonah DalmasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 2:599% → 9%
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+13
8.7%
Toa Taua run for 13 yds to the Nevad 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
8.8%
Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+2
8.8%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the Nevad 36Similar
Q1 6:54
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+5
8.7%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to BJ Casteel for 5 yds to the Nevad 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
8.9%
Devonte Lee run for 2 yds to the Nevad 43Similar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 8
OWN 43
0
8.9%
Shane Illingworth pass incomplete to Spencer CurtisSimilar
Q1 6:54
3RD & 8
OWN 43
-8
8.8%
Shane Illingworth sacked by Deven Wright for a loss of 8 yards to the Nevad 35Similar
Q1 3:55
4TH & 16
OWN 35
0
9.1%
Matt Freem punt for 65 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 5TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:4191% → 92%
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
9.4%
George Holani run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 25Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 5
OWN 25
-5
9.2%
PENALTY Boise False Start (Beresford,Cade) 5 yards from Boise25 to Boise20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+18
9.4%
Ashton Jeanty run for 18 yds to the BoiSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
9.1%
Ashton Jeanty run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 45Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+30
9.0%
Ashton Jeanty run for 30 yds to the Nevad 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+15
8.9%
George Holani run for 15 yds to the Nevad 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
8.9%
George Holani run for 1 yd to the Nevad 9Similar
Q1 0:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
8.0%
Taylen Green run for 9 yds for a TD, (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · -8 yds · 0:599% → 9%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
8.5%
Devonte Lee run for 2 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 28
0
8.4%
Shane Illingworth pass incomplete to Dalevon CampbellSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 28
-10
8.4%
Shane Illingworth sacked by Scott Matlock for a loss of 10 yards to the Nevad 18Similar
Q2 14:01
4TH & 18
OWN 18
0
8.6%
Matt Freem punt for 40 yds , Latrell Caples returns for no gain to the BoiSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:5592% → 92%
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
8.0%
PENALTY Boise False Start (Holomalia-Gonzalez,Kekaniokoa) 5 yards from Boise42 to Boise37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:01
1ST & 15
OWN 37
+2
8.2%
George Holani run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 13
OWN 39
0
8.1%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Stefan CobbsSimilar
Q2 13:21
3RD & 13
OWN 39
0
8.2%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Stefan CobbsSimilar
Q2 13:06
4TH & 13
OWN 39
0
8.4%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 61 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:449% → 9%
Q2 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
8.7%
Toa Taua run for no gain to the Nevad 20Similar
Q2 13:06
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
8.6%
Shane Illingworth pass incomplete to BJ CasteelSimilar
Q2 13:06
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
8.5%
Shane Illingworth pass incomplete to Toa TauaSimilar
Q2 12:22
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
8.6%
Matt Freem punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BoiSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 9TD
3 plays · 56 yds · 0:5692% → 95%
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
8.0%
George Holani run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 46Similar
Q2 12:22
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+5
8.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Green,Taylen pass incomplete short right to Cobbs,Stefan PENALTY Nevada Offside (Winston,Eli'jah) 5 yards from Boise46 to Nevada49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:26
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+49
4.8%
George Holani run for 49 yds for a TD, (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 10DOWNS
18 plays · 37 yds · 4:226% → 6%
Q2 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
6.1%
Shane Illingworth pass incomplete to Dalevon CampbellSimilar
Q2 11:26
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
6.0%
Shane Illingworth pass incomplete to Spencer CurtisSimilar
Q2 11:26
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
6.0%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Spencer Curtis for 15 yds to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
6.3%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the Nevad 42Similar
Q2 10:42
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+7
6.4%
Shane Illingworth run for 7 yds to the Nevad 49Similar
Q2 10:42
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+1
6.0%
Devonte Lee run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
50
0
6.6%
Shane Illingworth pass incomplete to Dalevon CampbellSimilar
Q2 10:42
2ND & 10
50
+1
6.6%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q2 9:21
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+6
5.3%
Shane Illingworth run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 43Similar
Q2 8:33
4TH & 3
OPP 43
+5
5.5%
Devonte Lee run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
5.9%
Shane Illingworth pass incomplete to Dalevon CampbellSimilar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
5.9%
Shane Illingworth pass incomplete to Carlton Brown IIISimilar
Q2 8:33
3RD & 10
OPP 38
0
5.8%
Toa Taua run for no gain to the BoiSt 38Similar
Q2 7:04
4TH & 10
OPP 38
0
5.5%
Shane Illingworth pass incomplete to BJ CasteelSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 11DOWNS
11 plays · 33 yds · 3:1894% → 96%
Q2 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
5.6%
Ashton Jeanty run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 40Similar
Q2 6:49
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+37
4.9%
Taylen Green pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 37 yds to the NEVADA 23 for a 1ST down NEVADA Penalty, Defensive Offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
4.6%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Tyneil HopperSimilar
Q2 6:49
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+5
4.7%
Ashton Jeanty run for 5 yds to the Nevad 18Similar
Q2 6:49
3RD & 5
OPP 18
+15
4.7%
Taylen Green pass complete to Billy Bowens for 15 yds to the Nevad 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
4.8%
George Holani run for 1 yd to the Nevad 4Similar
Q2 6:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
4.5%
PENALTY Boise False Start (Beresford,Cade) 5 yards from Nevada04 to Nevada09. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
4.5%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Latrell CaplesSimilar
Q2 6:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
4.7%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:46
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+20
4.3%
run for 20 yds to the Nevad 29 fumbled, recovered by BoiSt Jonah DalmasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 12FG
13 plays · 62 yds · 3:466% → 8%
Q2 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
6.3%
Shane Illingworth pass incomplete to Spencer CurtisSimilar
Q2 3:46
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+2
6.2%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
Q2 3:46
3RD & 8
OWN 31
+29
6.2%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Dalevon Campbell for 29 yds to the BoiSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
7.0%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to BJ Casteel for 11 yds to the BoiSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
7.3%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Devonte Lee for 7 yds to the BoiSt 22Similar
Q2 3:46
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+2
6.2%
Devonte Lee run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 20Similar
Q2 3:46
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+8
5.8%
Toa Taua run for 8 yds to the BoiSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+8
7.2%
Toa Taua run for 8 yds to the BoiSt 4Similar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 2
OPP 4
+2
6.5%
Devonte Lee run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 6Similar
Q2 0:23
3RD & 4
OPP 6
+3
5.9%
run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 9 fumbled, recovered by BoiSt Toa TauaSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 7
OPP 9
+26
7.8%
Brandon Talton 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 1:527% → 7%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
7.1%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to BJ Casteel for 6 yds to the Nevad 35Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 4
OWN 35
-8
7.3%
Shane Illingworth sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the Nevad 27Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 12
OWN 27
-8
6.9%
Shane Illingworth sacked by Andrew Simpson for a loss of 8 yards to the Nevad 19Similar
Q3 13:02
4TH & 20
OWN 19
+25
6.7%
Matt Freem punt for 35 yds , Latrell Caples returns for 25 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 14FG
8 plays · 11 yds · 2:2895% → 97%
Q3 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
5.4%
George Holani run for 6 yds to the Nevad 23Similar
Q3 13:02
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+8
5.4%
George Holani run for 8 yds to the Nevad 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
5.4%
PENALTY Boise False Start (Farrar,Will) 5 yards from Nevada15 to Nevada20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:02
1ST & 15
OPP 20
0
5.6%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Davis KoetterSimilar
Q3 13:02
2ND & 15
OPP 20
+2
5.6%
Taylen Green pass complete to Shea Whiting for 2 yds to the Nevad 18Similar
Q3 10:44
3RD & 13
OPP 18
0
5.0%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:34
4TH & 13
OPP 18
+35
3.2%
Jonah Dalmas 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:216% → 5%
Q3 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
5.6%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Toa Taua for 2 yds to the Nevad 32Similar
Q3 10:29
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
5.5%
Shane Illingworth pass incomplete to BJ CasteelSimilar
Q3 10:29
3RD & 8
OWN 32
-5
5.5%
PENALTY Nevada False Start (World,Isaiah) 5 yards from Nevada32 to Nevada27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:29
3RD & 13
OWN 27
+1
5.3%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Devonte Lee for 1 yd to the Nevad 28Similar
Q3 9:08
4TH & 12
OWN 28
0
5.0%
Matt Freem punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Latrell Caples at the BoiSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 16TD
10 plays · 62 yds · 3:2497% → 99%
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
2.8%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Stefan CobbsSimilar
Q3 9:08
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+3
2.8%
George Holani run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 41Similar
Q3 9:08
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+13
2.9%
Taylen Green pass complete to Latrell Caples for 13 yds to the Nevad 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
2.8%
George Holani run for 4 yds to the Nevad 42Similar
Q3 9:08
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+3
2.8%
George Holani run for 3 yds to the Nevad 39Similar
Q3 9:08
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+9
2.8%
Taylen Green pass complete to Billy Bowens for 9 yds to the Nevad 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
2.8%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Billy BowensSimilar
Q3 9:08
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+17
2.8%
Taylen Green pass complete to Ashton Jeanty for 17 yds to the Nevad 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
2.7%
Ashton Jeanty run for 4 yds to the Nevad 9Similar
Q3 5:44
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+9
0.7%
George Holani run for 9 yds for a TD, (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 17FUMBLE
2 plays · 11 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
1.1%
Devonte Lee run for 11 yds to the Nevad 36 Devonte Lee fumbled, recovered by BoiSt Gabe HunterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 18TD
2 plays · 36 yds · 0:3499% → 99%
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+30
0.7%
Taylen Green pass complete to Tyneil Hopper for 30 yds to the Nevad 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
0.6%
Ashton Jeanty run for 6 yds for a TD, (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 19DOWNS
10 plays · 37 yds · 3:071% → 0%
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
0.6%
Toa Taua run for 11 yds to the Nevad 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
0.6%
Shane Illingworth pass incomplete to Toa TauaSimilar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
0.6%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to BJ Casteel for 5 yds to the Nevad 41Similar
Q3 4:55
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+4
0.6%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to BJ Casteel for 4 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
Q3 4:55
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+15
0.6%
Toa Taua run for 15 yds to the BoiSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
0.7%
Shane Illingworth pass incomplete to BJ CasteelSimilar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
0.7%
Shane Illingworth pass incomplete to BJ CasteelSimilar
Q3 4:55
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+2
0.7%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Toa Taua for 2 yds to the BoiSt 38Similar
Q3 1:48
4TH & 8
OPP 38
0
0.3%
Shane Illingworth pass incomplete to BJ CasteelSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 20FG
6 plays · 48 yds · 1:52100% → 100%
Q3 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+46
0.4%
Tyler Crowe run for 46 yds to the Nevad 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-10
0.4%
BOISE ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Nevad 22Similar
Q3 1:48
1ST & 16
OPP 22
0
0.4%
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Kurt RafdalSimilar
Q3 1:48
2ND & 16
OPP 22
+4
0.4%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Kaden Dudley for 4 yds to the Nevad 18Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 12
OPP 18
+4
0.4%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Tyler Crowe for 4 yds to the Nevad 14Similar
Q4 14:56
4TH & 8
OPP 14
+31
0.5%
Jonah Dalmas 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 21DOWNS
8 plays · 39 yds · 2:090% → 0%
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
0.3%
Toa Taua run for 9 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+24
0.3%
Toa Taua run for 24 yds to the BoiSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
0.3%
Wesley Kommer run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 40Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 8
OPP 40
0
0.3%
Shane Illingworth pass incomplete to Dyson FrankSimilar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+4
0.3%
Shane Illingworth run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 36Similar
Q4 12:42
4TH & 4
OPP 36
0
0.2%
Nate Cox pass incomplete to BJ CasteelSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 22FUMBLE
9 plays · 47 yds · 4:21100% → 100%
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
0.3%
Kaden Dudley run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 41Similar
Q4 12:42
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+3
0.3%
Kaden Dudley run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 44Similar
Q4 12:42
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+3
0.3%
Tyler Crowe run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
0.3%
Tyler Crowe run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q4 12:42
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+10
0.3%
Tyler Crowe run for 10 yds to the Nevad 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+35
0.3%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Eric McAlister for 35 yds to the Nevad 6 for a 1ST down NEVADA Penalty, Illegal Substitution ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
0.3%
Maddux Madsen run for 1 yd to the Nevad 5Similar
Q4 12:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
0.3%
Kaden Dudley run for no gain to the Nevad 5Similar
Q4 8:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+12
0.2%
run for 12 yds to the Nevad 17 fumbled, recovered by BoiSt Chris SmalleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 23FUMBLE
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:190% → 0%
Q4 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
0.1%
Toa Taua run for 4 yds to the Nevad 21Similar
Q4 8:21
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+9
0.1%
Wesley Kommer run for 9 yds to the Nevad 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
0.1%
Wesley Kommer run for 3 yds to the Nevad 33Similar
Q4 8:21
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+4
0.1%
Nate Cox run for 4 yds to the Nevad 37Similar
Q4 6:02
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+1
0.1%
Wesley Kommer run for 1 yd to the Nevad 38 Wesley Kommer fumbled, recovered by BoiSt Jaylen ClarkSimilar
Q4 6:02
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+1
0.1%
Wesley Kommer run for 1 yd to the Nevad 38 Wesley Kommer fumbled, recovered by BoiSt Jaylen ClarkSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 24END OF GAME
10 plays · 19 yds · 6:02100% → 100%
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
0.2%
Ethan Mikita run for 3 yds to the Nevad 35Similar
Q4 6:02
2ND & 7
OPP 35
0
0.2%
Sam Vidlak pass incomplete to Kurt RafdalSimilar
Q4 6:02
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+4
0.2%
Tyler Crowe run for 4 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
Q4 6:02
4TH & 3
OPP 31
+5
0.2%
Tyler Crowe run for 5 yds to the Nevad 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
0.2%
Kaden Dudley run for 6 yds to the Nevad 20Similar
Q4 6:02
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+2
0.2%
Kaden Dudley run for 2 yds to the Nevad 22Similar
Q4 6:02
3RD & 6
OPP 22
+4
0.2%
Tyler Crowe run for 4 yds to the Nevad 18Similar
Q4 6:02
4TH & 2
OPP 18
-5
0.2%
PENALTY Boise False Start (Kringlen,Cord) 5 yards from Nevada18 to Nevada23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:02
4TH & 7
OPP 23
+7
0.2%
Colt Fulton run for 7 yds to the Nevad 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-3
0.1%
C. Fulton takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 11:26
George Holani run for 49 yds for a TD, (Jonah Dalmas KICK)
-3.3
TD · Q3 5:44
George Holani run for 9 yds for a TD, (Jonah Dalmas KICK)
-2
FG · Q2 0:00
Brandon Talton 26 yd FG GOOD
+1.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com