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BOIS

Boise State 17 at Oregon State 34

ORST
2022 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2022 · Reser Stadium
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Win probability · ORST
modelORST aheadBOIS aheadconfidence bandkey playORST scoreBOIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 14:16 · James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Anthony Gould at the OrgSt 39
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 6Home team on offense+0.0Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Pregame prior+4.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:15: Chance Nolan pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 47 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK) — ORST win probability +6.3 pts (now 67%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 10:28: Everett Hayes 20 yd FG GOOD — ORST win probability +5.3 pts (now 76%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:11: Deshaun Fenwick run for 12 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK) — ORST win probability +7.7 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:05: Taylen Green run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jonah Dalmas KICK) — BOIS win probability +14.9 pts (now 21%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:39: Jack Colletto run for 41 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK) — ORST win probability +9.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORST made the numbers' call on 4 of 8BOIS made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 14:16BOIS 4th & 9 at BOIS 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.3%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:51ORST 4th & 2 at ORST 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    55.8%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:21ORST 4th & 4 at ORST 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.6%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:16BOIS 4th & 7 at BOIS 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:04BOIS 4th & 15 at BOIS 3, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.3%−3.0
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:44ORST 4th & 24 at ORST 38, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.3%−2.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:28ORST 4th & 3 at BOIS 3, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 72.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.6%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.3%−1.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    64.4%−8.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:34BOIS 4th & 7 at BOIS 36, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%−1.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:11BOIS 4th & 8 at ORST 23, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.2%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.7%
    70% to make
    Punt
    3.6%−4.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:44ORST 4th & 14 at BOIS 43, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.6%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    93.7%−0.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:23BOIS 4th & 10 at BOIS 27, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%−0.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:57ORST 4th & 5 at BOIS 5, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.1%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.1%
    92% to make
    Punt
    93.3%−2.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:04ORST 4th & 3 at ORST 30, up 17
    Close callPunted · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.9%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:37ORST 4th & 5 at BOIS 29, up 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.6%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    96.3%−1.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:16BOIS 4th & 6 at BOIS 33, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.9%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:33BOIS 4th & 11 at ORST 15, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.8%
    83% to make
    Punt
    1.2%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4BOIS made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 5:24ORST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:15ORST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:11ORST Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:10BOIS Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:05BOIS Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:39ORST Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BOISDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:3446% → 46%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
54.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Stefan CobbsSimilar
Q1 14:40
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+6
54.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Riley Smith for 6 yds to the BoiSt 32Similar
Q1 14:23
3RD & 4
OWN 32
0
54.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:23
4TH & 4
OWN 32
-5
54.3%
BOISE ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the BoiSt 27Similar
Q1 14:16
4TH & 9
OWN 27
0
54.3%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Anthony Gould at the OrgSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 2FUMBLE
9 plays · 32 yds · 3:3854% → 55%
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
54.3%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Luke Musgrave for 5 yds to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+3
54.5%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 47Similar
Q1 12:55
3RD & 2
OWN 47
0
54.6%
Chance Nolan pass incomplete to Tre'Shaun HarrisonSimilar
Q1 12:51
4TH & 2
OWN 47
+3
54.4%
Jack Colletto run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
50
+2
54.8%
Damien Martinez run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 48Similar
Q1 11:43
2ND & 8
OPP 48
-10
54.9%
OREGON ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Joshua Gray) to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q1 11:09
2ND & 18
OWN 42
+27
54.7%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Luke Musgrave for 27 yds to the BoiSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
55.3%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 29 Deshaun Fenwick fumbled, recovered by BoiSt Caleb BiggersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 3INT
3 plays · 22 yds · 0:5246% → 46%
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
54.5%
George Holani run for no gain to the BoiSt 29Similar
Q1 9:46
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+22
54.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to George Holani for 22 yds to the OrgSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
54.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass intercepted Rejzohn Wright return for no gain to the OrgSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 2:0455% → 54%
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
54.7%
Trey Lowe run for no gain to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q1 8:48
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+4
54.5%
Trey Lowe run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q1 8:05
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+2
54.4%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 2 yds to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q1 7:21
4TH & 4
OWN 27
0
54.1%
Luke Loecher punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Stefan Cobbs at the BoiSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 5INT
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:5745% → 45%
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
54.6%
George Holani run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
54.5%
George Holani run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 30Similar
Q1 6:18
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
54.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass intercepted Jaydon Grant return for no gain to the OrgSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 6TD
2 plays · 53 yds · 0:4656% → 60%
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+26
55.7%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 26 yds to the BoiSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
59.6%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Luke Musgrave for 27 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:5441% → 40%
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
58.6%
Hank Bachmeier run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 19Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+3
59.0%
Ashton Jeanty run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 22Similar
Q1 3:55
3RD & 5
OWN 22
-2
59.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Billy Bowens for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 20Similar
Q1 3:16
4TH & 7
OWN 20
0
60.3%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Anthony Gould at the OrgSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 8TD
4 plays · 60 yds · 1:5561% → 67%
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
60.5%
Damien Martinez run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 38Similar
Q1 2:35
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+7
59.9%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Luke Musgrave for 7 yds to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q1 1:54
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+8
60.4%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 8 yds to the BoiSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
66.6%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 47 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 2:0135% → 33%
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-3
65.1%
George Holani run for a loss of 3 yards to the BoiSt 5Similar
Q1 0:25
2ND & 13
OWN 5
-1
65.7%
George Holani run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 4Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 14
OWN 4
-1
66.3%
George Holani run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 3Similar
Q2 14:04
4TH & 15
OWN 3
0
66.7%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 45 yds, downed at the BoiSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -14 yds · 1:1269% → 67%
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-4
68.6%
Anthony Gould run for a loss of 4 yards to the OrgSt 48Similar
Q2 13:53
2ND & 14
OWN 48
-15
68.0%
OREGON ST Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 29
OWN 33
+5
67.5%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Trey Lowe for 5 yds to the OrgSt 38Similar
Q2 12:52
3RD & 24
OWN 38
0
68.0%
Chance Nolan pass incomplete to Silas BoldenSimilar
Q2 12:44
4TH & 24
OWN 38
0
67.3%
Luke Loecher punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Stefan Cobbs at the BoiSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 11FUMBLE
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:3233% → 33%
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
66.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Latrell Caples for 4 yds to the BoiSt 14Similar
Q2 12:03
2ND & 6
OWN 14
-7
67.2%
Hank Bachmeier sacked by Riley Sharp for a loss of 7 yards to the BoiSt 6 Hank Bachmeier fumbled, recovered by OrgSt Jack Colletto , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 12FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2970% → 76%
Q2 11:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
70.2%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
70.3%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 3Similar
Q2 11:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
70.3%
Jack Colletto run for no gain to the BoiSt 3Similar
Q2 10:28
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
75.6%
Everett Hayes 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 1:4226% → 24%
Q2 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
73.9%
George Holani run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 26Similar
Q2 9:51
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+7
73.6%
Taylen Green run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
73.9%
Taylen Green run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 36Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 7
OWN 36
0
74.2%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Austin BoltSimilar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 7
OWN 36
0
75.3%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Stefan CobbsSimilar
Q2 8:34
4TH & 7
OWN 36
0
76.2%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Anthony Gould at the OrgSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 14INT
3 plays · -5 yds · 0:4579% → 78%
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-5
78.8%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Anthony Gould for a loss of 5 yards to the OrgSt 24Similar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 15
OWN 24
0
78.1%
Chance Nolan pass incomplete to Tre'Shaun HarrisonSimilar
Q2 7:40
3RD & 15
OWN 24
-11
77.7%
Chance Nolan pass intercepted JL Skinner return for 11 yds to the OrgSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 15FUMBLE
5 plays · 14 yds · 2:5127% → 26%
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-2
73.0%
George Holani run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 18Similar
Q2 6:51
2ND & 12
OPP 18
0
73.8%
Taylen Green pass complete to George Holani for no gain to the OrgSt 18Similar
Q2 6:07
3RD & 12
OPP 18
+13
75.8%
Taylen Green pass complete to George Holani for 13 yds to the OrgSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
74.5%
Taylen Green run for no gain to the OrgSt 5Similar
Q2 4:44
2ND & 0
OPP 5
+3
73.8%
Taylen Green pass complete to Ashton Jeanty for 3 yds Ashton Jeanty fumbled, forced by Jaydon Grant, recovered by OrgSt Alex AustinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 16TD
4 plays · 98 yds · 1:2981% → 91%
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
81.1%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 5Similar
Q2 3:56
2ND & 7
OWN 5
+74
81.6%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Anthony Gould for 74 yds to the BoiSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+9
82.9%
Damien Martinez run for 9 yds to the BoiSt 12Similar
Q2 3:11
2ND & 1
OPP 12
+12
90.5%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 12 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 17DOWNS
15 plays · 61 yds · 3:0512% → 9%
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
88.1%
Taylen Green pass complete to Latrell Caples for 9 yds to the BoiSt 34Similar
Q2 2:48
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
87.4%
George Holani run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
88.1%
Taylen Green pass complete to Billy Bowens for 9 yds to the BoiSt 48Similar
Q2 2:04
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+1
87.6%
George Holani run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+26
88.5%
Taylen Green pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 26 yds to the OrgSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
87.0%
Taylen Green run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+4
87.1%
Taylen Green run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 17Similar
Q2 0:11
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+3
88.2%
Taylen Green pass complete to Latrell Caples for 3 yds to the OrgSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
90.6%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+32
90.9%
Jonah Dalmas 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 18INT
4 plays · 12 yds · 1:1591% → 92%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
91.0%
Damien Martinez run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 23Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 2
OWN 23
+4
91.5%
Damien Martinez run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
91.6%
Chance Nolan pass intercepted Caleb Biggers return for 1 yd to the OrgSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 19FG
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1912% → 9%
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
88.3%
George Holani run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 26Similar
Q3 12:54
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+3
90.6%
Taylen Green pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 3 yds to the OrgSt 23Similar
Q3 12:16
3RD & 8
OPP 23
0
91.5%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Latrell CaplesSimilar
Q3 12:11
4TH & 8
OPP 23
+41
91.0%
Jonah Dalmas 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 3:2193% → 94%
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
92.7%
Damien Martinez run for 12 yds to the OrgSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
93.2%
Trey Lowe run for 15 yds to the BoiSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-10
93.5%
OREGON ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q3 10:25
1ST & 20
OPP 49
+4
93.6%
Trey Lowe run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 45Similar
Q3 9:53
2ND & 16
OPP 45
0
93.9%
Chance Nolan pass incomplete to Luke MusgraveSimilar
Q3 9:30
3RD & 16
OPP 45
+2
93.8%
Damien Martinez run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 43Similar
Q3 8:44
4TH & 14
OPP 43
0
93.6%
Luke Loecher punt for 31 yds, downed at the BoiSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 1:116% → 6%
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+15
93.9%
OREGON ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Rejzohn Wright) to the BoiSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
93.8%
George Holani run for no gain to the BoiSt 27Similar
Q3 7:36
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
94.1%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to George HolaniSimilar
Q3 7:29
3RD & 10
OWN 27
0
94.2%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Billy BowensSimilar
Q3 7:23
4TH & 10
OWN 27
0
94.3%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Anthony Gould at the OrgSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 22FG
11 plays · 55 yds · 4:1895% → 97%
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
94.8%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q3 6:48
2ND & 7
OWN 43
-5
95.0%
OREGON ST Penalty, False Start (Jake Overman) to the OrgSt 38Similar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+19
94.9%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Luke Musgrave for 19 yds to the BoiSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+41
95.4%
John Dunmore pass complete to Trey Lowe for 41 yds to the BoiSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:21
1ST & 0
OPP 2
-5
95.8%
OREGON ST Penalty, False Start (Luke Musgrave) to the BoiSt 7Similar
Q3 4:47
1ST & 0
OPP 7
-10
95.9%
OREGON ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Luke Musgrave) to the BoiSt 17Similar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 0
OPP 17
-10
95.3%
OREGON ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Taliese Fuaga) to the BoiSt 27Similar
Q3 4:01
1ST & 0
OPP 27
+15
95.3%
Chance Nolan run for 15 yds to the BoiSt 12Similar
Q3 3:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
0
96.5%
Chance Nolan pass incomplete to Tre'Shaun HarrisonSimilar
Q3 3:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
+7
96.4%
Chance Nolan run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 5Similar
Q3 2:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
97.0%
Everett Hayes 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 23TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:403% → 8%
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
96.8%
Ashton Jeanty run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 26Similar
Q3 2:10
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+74
92.1%
Taylen Green run for 74 yds for a TD, (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:5293% → 94%
Q3 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
93.0%
Chance Nolan run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q3 1:25
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+1
93.4%
Damien Martinez run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q3 0:45
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+2
93.5%
Chance Nolan run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q3 0:04
4TH & 3
OWN 30
0
93.5%
Luke Loecher punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Stefan Cobbs at the BoiSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 25TD
9 plays · 67 yds · 1:557% → 21%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
93.0%
Latrell Caples run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 38Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+15
93.0%
OREGON ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Ryan Cooper Jr.) to the OrgSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
92.9%
BOISE ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BoiSt 48Similar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 15
OWN 48
+7
93.3%
Taylen Green pass complete to Riley Smith for 7 yds to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q4 14:30
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+2
93.2%
George Holani run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q4 13:48
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+8
93.9%
Ashton Jeanty run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
93.4%
BOISE ST Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Garrett Curran) to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q4 13:22
1ST & 15
OPP 40
+36
93.9%
Taylen Green pass complete to Ashton Jeanty for 36 yds to the OrgSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
79.0%
Taylen Green run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 26TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 2:1885% → 96%
Q4 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
84.6%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
85.0%
Trey Lowe run for no gain to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q4 12:07
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+15
84.6%
BOISE ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Tyric LeBeauf) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
50
+5
86.8%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 5 yds to the BoiSt 45Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+4
87.0%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 41Similar
Q4 10:39
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+41
96.2%
Jack Colletto run for 41 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 27INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.8%
Taylen Green pass intercepted Alex Austin return for no gain to the OrgSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 28MISSED FG
10 plays · 26 yds · 5:4896% → 98%
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
96.3%
Damien Martinez run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 48Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+3
96.3%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q4 9:19
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+4
96.4%
Trey Lowe run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
96.8%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Luke Musgrave for 4 yds to the BoiSt 41Similar
Q4 7:53
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+2
96.9%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q4 7:15
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+5
97.0%
Trey Lowe run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
97.2%
Damien Martinez run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 31Similar
Q4 6:05
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+4
97.6%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 27Similar
Q4 5:17
3RD & 3
OPP 27
-2
97.7%
Damien Martinez run for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 29Similar
Q4 4:37
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+47
97.7%
Everett Hayes 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 29MISSED FG
21 plays · 56 yds · 3:572% → 2%
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
97.7%
Taylen Green run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 33Similar
Q4 4:12
2ND & 6
OWN 33
0
97.7%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Stefan CobbsSimilar
Q4 4:12
3RD & 6
OWN 33
-5
97.8%
BOISE ST Penalty, False Start (Kekaniokoa Holomalia-Gonzalez) to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q4 4:06
3RD & 11
OWN 28
0
97.9%
Taylen Green pass complete to Ashton Jeanty for no gain to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q4 3:24
4TH & 11
OWN 28
+5
98.0%
OREGON ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Andrew Chatfield Jr.) to the BoiSt 33Similar
Q4 3:16
4TH & 6
OWN 33
+7
98.0%
Taylen Green run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
97.8%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Billy BowensSimilar
Q4 2:57
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+11
97.9%
Taylen Green pass complete to Riley Smith for 11 yds to the OrgSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
97.8%
Ashton Jeanty run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+5
97.9%
Taylen Green pass complete to Riley Smith for 5 yds to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q4 2:13
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+4
97.7%
Taylen Green run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
97.8%
Taylen Green pass complete to Ashton Jeanty for 6 yds to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q4 1:41
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+6
97.4%
Taylen Green pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 6 yds to the OrgSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
97.5%
Taylen Green pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 4 yds to the OrgSt 20Similar
Q4 1:23
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+6
97.5%
Taylen Green pass complete to Ashton Jeanty for 6 yds to the OrgSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
97.5%
Taylen Green pass complete to Latrell Caples for 7 yds to the OrgSt 7Similar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 3
OPP 7
+1
97.2%
Taylen Green pass complete to Ashton Jeanty for 1 yd to the OrgSt 6Similar
Q4 0:40
3RD & 2
OPP 6
-9
97.4%
Taylen Green sacked by Ryan Cooper Jr. for a loss of 9 yards to the OrgSt 15Similar
Q4 0:33
4TH & 11
OPP 15
+32
98.0%
Jonah Dalmas 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 30END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
99.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:05
Taylen Green run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jonah Dalmas KICK)
-14.9
TD · Q4 10:39
Jack Colletto run for 41 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK)
+9.2
TD · Q2 3:11
Deshaun Fenwick run for 12 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK)
+7.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com