Boise State

Profile vs. FBS, 2017

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1363rd
  Defense+0.0274th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense44.7%66th
  Defense41.3%54th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.1329th
  Defense+1.1665th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense−0.0317th
  Defense−0.0378th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.3491st
  Defense+0.0766th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense48.3%60th
  Defense46.6%50th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense37.1%81st
  Defense29.7%80th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.6215th
  Defense2.5781st
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense20.9%36th
  Defense19.7%50th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense13.0%90th
  Defense17.0%57th

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2017

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Boise State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   TROY
2. L
   WSU
3. W
   UNM
4. L
   UVA
5. W
   BYU
6. W
   SDSU
7. W
   WYO
8. W
   USU
9. W
   NEV
10. W
    CSU
11. W
    AF
12. L
    FRES
13. W
    FRES
14. W
    ORE

Bars above the line: better than expected for Boise State.

Players, 2017

1. Brett RypienQB346 plays · +0.263 pts/play · 28th of 226 QBs
   1.71WAR1.10 to 2.35
2. Alexander MattisonRB196 plays · +0.145 pts/play · 24th of 352 RBs
   0.53WAR0.36 to 0.66
3. Montell CozartQB137 plays · +0.172 pts/play · 132nd of 226 QBs
   0.44WAR0.16 to 0.70
4. Cedrick WilsonWR122 plays · +0.176 pts/play · 2nd of 426 WRs
   0.40WAR0.26 to 0.54
5. Ryan WolpinRB109 plays · +0.129 pts/play · 124th of 352 RBs
   0.26WAR0.20 to 0.32
6. A.J. RichardsonWR41 plays · +0.147 pts/play · 156th of 426 WRs
   0.11WAR0.08 to 0.14
7. Haden HoggarthPK16 plays · +0.314 pts/play · 67th of 110 kickers
   0.09WAR0.04 to 0.14
8. Sean ModsterWR38 plays · +0.104 pts/play · 279th of 426 WRs
   0.07WAR0.04 to 0.11

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Boise State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2017

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  50250271st of 130Roster talent: 502, 71st of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  16616665th of 130Recruiting: 166, 65th of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  61%61%63rd of 128Returning production: 61%, 63rd of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +9.1+9.137th of 128SP+ rating: +9.1, 37th of 128 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2017

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Boise State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 7 clear-cut ones account for 0.14 of the 0.20 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at FRESQ3 1:55 4th & 2 at FRES 6, down 9Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−2.9 pts
2. at WSUQ4 3:59 4th & 1 at BOIS 19, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.8 pts
3. at SDSUQ4 14:52 4th & 2 at SDSU 2, up 14Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−2.3 pts
4. at SDSUQ2 15:00 4th & 3 at SDSU 36, up 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.8 pts
5. at WSUQ2 3:25 4th & 1 at BOIS 47, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.7 pts
6. vs TROYQ4 14:50 4th & 2 at BOIS 28, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.2 pts
7. at BYUQ2 3:49 4th & 3 at BYU 3, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.0 pts
8. at OREQ4 12:01 4th & 3 at midfield, up 17Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−1.0 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2017

15th of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Boise State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   TROY
2. L

   WSU
3. W

   UNM
4. L

   UVA
5. W

   BYU
6. W

   SDSU
7. W

   WYO
8. W

   USU
9. W

   NEV
10. W

    CSU
11. W

    AF
12. L

    FRES
13. W

    FRES
14. W

    ORE

What moved it, 2017

Every game starts at Boise State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+1.77
• Possession & field position−0.04
• Clock−0.12
• Timeouts+0.43
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.78

Game by game

• TROYW 24-13 vs TROY74% → 98%Before kickoff +24 · On the field +23: Scoreboard +26, Timeouts +1
• WSUL 44-47 at WSU25% → 15%Before kickoff −25 · On the field −9: Scoreboard −30, Timeouts +18
• UNMW 28-14 vs UNM86% → 99%Before kickoff +36 · On the field +12: Scoreboard +18
• UVAL 23-42 vs UVA80% → 1%Before kickoff +30 · On the field −79: Scoreboard −66, Clock −3
• BYUW 24-7 at BYU73% → 99%Before kickoff +23 · On the field +26: Scoreboard +34, Clock +4
• SDSUW 31-14 at SDSU34% → 98%Before kickoff −16 · On the field +64: Scoreboard +59, Possession & field position +1
• WYOW 24-14 vs WYO85% → 97%Before kickoff +35 · On the field +12: Scoreboard +20, Timeouts +1
• USUW 41-14 at USU80% → 100%Before kickoff +30 · On the field +20: Scoreboard +26, Clock +1
• NEVW 41-14 vs NEV92% → 100%Before kickoff +42 · On the field +8: Scoreboard +11
• CSUW 59-52 at CSU63% → 74%Before kickoff +13 · On the field +11: Scoreboard +32, Timeouts +19
• AFW 44-19 vs AF88% → 100%Before kickoff +38 · On the field +12: Scoreboard +16, Clock +1
• FRESL 17-28 at FRES65% → 1%Before kickoff +15 · On the field −64: Scoreboard −50
• FRESW 17-14 vs FRES73% → 95%Before kickoff +23 · On the field +22: Scoreboard +27, Timeouts +1
• OREW 38-28 at ORE29% → 96%Before kickoff −21 · On the field +67: Scoreboard +55, Clock +4

Points of win probability, from Boise State's side.

Closest call

BOIS 59-52 CSU (2017) - Boise State dropped to a 2.5% win probability before pulling it out.