2017 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2017 · Albertsons Stadium
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Win probability · BOIS
modelBOIS aheadAF aheadconfidence bandkey playBOIS scoreAF score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Cole Fagan run for 7 yds to the AFA 38
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 0:42: Nate Romine 1 Yd Run (Luke Strebel Kick) — AF win probability +3.2 pts (now 14%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
- FG · Q2 10:39: Haden Hoggarth 28 yd FG GOOD — BOIS win probability +3.2 pts (now 90%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:22: Tyler Horton 21 Yd Fumble Return (Haden Hoggarth Kick) — BOIS win probability +5.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:00: Luke Strebel 45 yd FG GOOD — AF win probability +5.0 pts (now 11%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:23: Octavius Evans 7 Yd pass from Brett Rypien (Haden Hoggarth Kick) — BOIS win probability +4.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
BOIS made the numbers' call on 3 of 5AF made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
- Q1 12:08BOIS 4th & 3 at AF 5, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 86.7% before the snapGo for it86.7%45% to convertField goalTheir call86.6%−0.192% to makePunt86.2%−0.5average punt
- Q1 9:33AF 4th & 2 at midfield, down 3Close callPunted · 13.9% before the snapGo for it14.0%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.9%−0.1average punt
- Q2 10:39BOIS 4th & 6 at AF 11, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.8% before the snapGo for it85.4%−0.135% to convertField goalTheir call85.5%87% to makePunt82.2%−3.3average punt
- Q2 5:42AF 4th & 15 at AF 35, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.4% before the snapGo for it4.8%−0.917% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.7%average punt
- Q2 2:19BOIS 4th & 11 at AF 34, up 20Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.5% before the snapGo for it95.2%−0.227% to convertField goalTheir call95.4%47% to makePunt94.9%−0.4average punt
- Q3 9:50AF 4th & 9 at AF 19, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snapGo for it2.7%−0.330% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.0%average punt
- Q3 3:45BOIS 4th & 4 at AF 4, up 24Close callKicked a field goal · 98.1% before the snapGo for it98.1%40% to convertField goalTheir call98.0%−0.193% to makePunt96.4%−1.8average punt
- Q4 14:50AF 4th & 6 at BOIS 29, down 27Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−<0.140% to convertField goal0.2%58% to makePunt-0.5%−0.7average punt
- Q4 12:59AF 4th & 15 at BOIS 26, down 27Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.316% to convertField goalTheir call0.3%64% to makePunt-0.3%−0.6average punt
- Q4 9:48BOIS 4th & 18 at BOIS 39, up 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.9% before the snapGo for it98.6%−0.313% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.9%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BOIS made the numbers' call on 5 of 5AF made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q1 9:21BOIS Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.8%97% to makeGo for two86.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:47BOIS Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.1%97% to makeGo for two88.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:42AF Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call14.0%97% to makeGo for two13.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:22BOIS Touchdown, up 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.0%97% to makeGo for two92.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:23BOIS Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.7%97% to makeGo for two96.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:02AF Touchdown, down 18 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick2.1%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call2.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 1:42BOIS Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartAFDrive 1FUMBLE3 plays · 2 yds · 0:0913% → 13%
BOISDrive 2FG6 plays · 22 yds · 2:2088% → 87%
Q1 14:14
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+9
87.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 9 yds to the AFA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 3PUNT6 plays · 25 yds · 2:2613% → 14%
Q1 9:33
4TH & 2
50
0
86.2%
Charlie Scott punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Avery Williams at the BoiSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 4TD1 play · 87 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q1 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+87
87.0%
A.J. Richardson 87 Yd pass from Brett Rypien (Haden Hoggarth Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 5FUMBLE6 plays · -2 yds · 2:2213% → 14%
Q1 6:54
2ND & 8
OWN 38
-6
86.4%
Nate Romine run for a loss of 6 yards to the AFA 23 Nate Romine fumbled, recovered by BoiSt Gabe PerezSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 6TD7 plays · 23 yds · 1:4887% → 89%
AFDrive 7TD10 plays · 76 yds · 3:4911% → 14%
Q1 4:20
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+18
89.1%
Nate Romine pass complete to Jacob Stafford for 18 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:12
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+20
88.9%
Nate Romine pass complete to Marcus Bennett for 20 yds to the BoiSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+28
88.7%
Nate Romine pass complete to Kade Waguespack for 28 yds to the BoiSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 8FG12 plays · 62 yds · 4:2187% → 90%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+36
86.6%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Alexander Mattison for 36 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 9FUMBLE RETURN TD4 plays · -3 yds · 1:1011% → 6%
AFDrive 10PUNT8 plays · 10 yds · 3:336% → 5%
Q2 8:55
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+14
94.2%
Nate Romine pass complete to Marcus Bennett for 14 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 20
OWN 30
-1
94.1%
Timothy McVey run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 27 Timothy McVey fumbled, recovered by AFA Geraud SandersSimilar
Q2 5:42
4TH & 15
OWN 35
0
94.6%
Charlie Scott punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Avery Williams at the BoiSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 11MISSED FG9 plays · 51 yds · 3:1595% → 96%
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+33
95.2%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 33 yds to the BoiSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 17
OWN 41
+11
95.6%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Alec Dhaenens for 11 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q2 3:33
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+15
95.8%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 15 yds to the AFA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12END OF HALF8 plays · 38 yds · 2:125% → 11%
BOISDrive 13TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:3092% → 97%
Q3 14:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+29
92.0%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 29 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:32
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+39
91.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 39 yds to the AFA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
96.8%
Octavius Evans 7 Yd pass from Brett Rypien (Haden Hoggarth Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 14PUNT8 plays · 14 yds · 2:104% → 3%
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+5
96.5%
Nate Romine pass complete to Nolan Eriksen for 5 yds to the AFA 10Similar
Q3 10:39
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+1
96.9%
Nate Romine pass complete to Jacob Stafford for 1 yd to the AFA 19Similar
Q3 9:50
4TH & 9
OWN 19
0
97.1%
Charlie Scott punt for 52 yds , Avery Williams returns for no gain to the BoiSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 15FG12 plays · 67 yds · 6:0097% → 100%
Q3 9:20
1ST & 17
OWN 22
+30
97.1%
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 30 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:23
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+15
97.5%
Rypien, Brett pass incomplete to Wilson, Cedrick, PENALTY AIRFORCE pass interference 15 yards to the AIRFORCE32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BOISEST.Similar
Q3 6:55
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+6
97.6%
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 6 yds to the AFA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+13
97.9%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 13 yds to the AFA 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 16FG12 plays · 51 yds · 5:300% → 1%
BOISDrive 17PUNT7 plays · 8 yds · 2:5299% → 99%
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+16
99.0%
Alexander Mattison run for 16 yds to the BoiSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
99.1%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Alexander Mattison for 2 yds to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 15
OWN 42
0
99.1%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for a loss of 3 yards to the BoiSt 39 lat. to Ryan Wolpin for no gain to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q4 9:48
4TH & 18
OWN 39
0
99.0%
Quinn Skillin punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Ronald Cleveland at the AFA 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 18TD11 plays · 79 yds · 3:351% → 3%
Q4 6:43
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+19
99.2%
Isaiah Sanders run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 35 for a 1ST down BOISE ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (16 Yards) to the BoiSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
97.1%
Taven Birdow run for 6 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 19TD13 plays · 44 yds · 4:1398% → 100%
AFDrive 20END OF GAME6 plays · 13 yds · 1:320% → 0%
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-6
99.8%
Isaiah Sanders sacked by Kayode Rufai for a loss of 6 yards to the AFA 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:22
Tyler Horton 21 Yd Fumble Return (Haden Hoggarth Kick)
+5
FG · Q2 0:00
Luke Strebel 45 yd FG GOOD
-5
TD · Q3 12:23
Octavius Evans 7 Yd pass from Brett Rypien (Haden Hoggarth Kick)
+4.3