Boise State

Profile vs. FBS, 2024

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.3097th
  Defense+0.0765th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense47.5%87th
  Defense38.4%80th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2964th
  Defense+1.3619th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.2594th
  Defense+0.0562nd
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.3693rd
  Defense+0.0970th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense53.0%89th
  Defense42.5%87th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense34.6%77th
  Defense31.2%41st
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.1667th
  Defense2.7876th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense17.3%53rd
  Defense21.5%86th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense13.1%83rd
  Defense20.0%91st

Percentiles among the 134 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2024

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Boise State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   GASO
2. L
   ORE
3. W
   PRST
4. W
   WSU
5. W
   USU
6. W
   HAW
7. W
   UNLV
8. W
   SDSU
9. W
   NEV
10. W
    SJSU
11. W
    WYO
12. W
    ORST
13. W
    UNLV
14. L
    PSU

Bars above the line: better than expected for Boise State.

Players, 2024

1. Maddux MadsenQB357 plays · +0.237 pts/play · 51st of 232 QBs
   1.58WAR1.06 to 2.15
2. Ashton JeantyRB307 plays · +0.213 pts/play · 1st of 373 RBs
   1.23WAR0.98 to 1.51
3. Cameron CamperWR46 plays · +0.156 pts/play · 99th of 452 WRs
   0.13WAR0.05 to 0.22
4. Matt LauterTE34 plays · +0.190 pts/play · 20th of 221 TEs
   0.12WAR0.04 to 0.20
5. James Ferguson-ReynoldsP33 plays · +0.192 pts/play · 18th of 106 punters
   0.12WAR0.05 to 0.18
6. Latrell CaplesWR32 plays · +0.180 pts/play · 138th of 452 WRs
   0.11WAR0.06 to 0.16
7. Jonah DalmasPK15 plays · +0.328 pts/play · 42nd of 114 kickers
   0.09WAR0.05 to 0.14
8. Prince StrachanWR15 plays · +0.181 pts/play · 233rd of 452 WRs
   0.05WAR0.02 to 0.09

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Boise State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2024

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  60860877th of 131Roster talent: 608, 77th of 131 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  17417469th of 131Recruiting: 174, 69th of 131 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  50%50%57th of 130Returning production: 50%, 57th of 130 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +10.1+10.129th of 131SP+ rating: +10.1, 29th of 131 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 131 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2024

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Boise State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 1 clear-cut ones account for 0.02 of the 0.07 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at WYOQ4 0:14 4th & 10 at WYO 30, up 4Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−1.7 pts
2. vs UNLVQ3 13:03 4th & 1 at BOIS 30, up 21Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−1.0 pts
3. vs WSUQ3 4:38 4th & 3 at BOIS 46, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
4. vs UNLVQ4 7:52 4th & 1 at BOIS 34, up 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
5. at OREQ3 12:14 4th & 3 at BOIS 45, up 6Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts
6. vs NEVQ4 3:34 4th & 1 at BOIS 29, up 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts
7. vs PSUQ4 3:37 4th & 12 at BOIS 24, down 17Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.2 pts
8. at HAWQ2 7:06 4th & 4 at HAW 5, up 10Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.2 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2024

24th of 134 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Boise State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   GASO
2. L

   ORE
3. W

   PRST
4. W

   WSU
5. W

   USU
6. W

   HAW
7. W

   UNLV
8. W

   SDSU
9. W

   NEV
10. W

    SJSU
11. W

    WYO
12. W

    ORST
13. W

    UNLV
14. L

    PSU

What moved it, 2024

Every game starts at Boise State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+1.91
• Possession & field position+0.04
• Clock+0.03
• Timeouts+0.11
• Other−0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.58

Game by game

• GASOW 56-45 at GASO80% → 98%Before kickoff +30 · On the field +18: Scoreboard +29, Clock +2
• OREL 34-37 at ORE10% → 12%Before kickoff −40 · On the field +2: Scoreboard −18, Timeouts +4
• PRSTW 56-14 vs PRST99% → 100%Before kickoff +49 · On the field +1: Scoreboard +2
• WSUW 45-24 vs WSU71% → 100%Before kickoff +21 · On the field +29: Scoreboard +33, Clock −1
• USUW 62-30 vs USU96% → 100%Before kickoff +46 · On the field +4: Scoreboard +6
• HAWW 28-7 at HAW89% → 100%Before kickoff +39 · On the field +11: Scoreboard +17, Clock +1
• UNLVW 29-24 at UNLV63% → 94%Before kickoff +13 · On the field +32: Scoreboard +42, Clock +3
• SDSUW 56-24 vs SDSU94% → 100%Before kickoff +44 · On the field +6: Scoreboard +9
• NEVW 28-21 vs NEV94% → 98%Before kickoff +44 · On the field +5: Scoreboard +12
• SJSUW 42-21 at SJSU85% → 100%Before kickoff +35 · On the field +15: Scoreboard +19, Timeouts +2
• WYOW 17-13 at WYO94% → 90%Before kickoff +44 · On the field −3: Scoreboard +16, Timeouts +1
• ORSTW 34-18 vs ORST89% → 100%Before kickoff +39 · On the field +10: Scoreboard +15, Clock −1
• UNLVW 21-7 vs UNLV63% → 100%Before kickoff +13 · On the field +36: Scoreboard +36, Timeouts +1
• PSUL 14-31 vs PSU16% → 1%Before kickoff −34 · On the field −15: Scoreboard −26, Clock −1

Points of win probability, from Boise State's side.

Closest call

BOIS 59-52 CSU (2017) - Boise State dropped to a 2.5% win probability before pulling it out.