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NEV

Nevada 21 at Boise State 28

BOIS
2024 · Week 11 · Nov 9, 2024 · Albertsons Stadium
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Win probability · BOIS
modelBOIS aheadNEV aheadconfidence bandkey playBOIS scoreNEV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 0:16 · James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Marquis Ashley at the NEV 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+43.5+21.80−21.8−43.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 111Pregame prior+15.0Home team on offense+11.8Garbage-time factor+8.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.8Score differential+2.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:14: Marcus Bellon pass complete to Caleb Ramseur for 44 yds for a TD (Kian Afrookhteh KICK) — NEV win probability +6.7 pts (now 17%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:50: Ashton Jeanty run for 1 yd for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK) — BOIS win probability +5.8 pts (now 89%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:05: Ashton Jeanty run for 2 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK) — BOIS win probability +6.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:19: Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jaden Smith for 36 yds for a TD (Kian Afrookhteh KICK) — NEV win probability +10.9 pts (now 14%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:17: Ashton Jeanty run for a loss of 5 yards to the NEV 49 — BOIS win probability +9.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BOIS made the numbers' call on 4 of 5NEV made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 13:39NEV 4th & 16 at NEV 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.2%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:48NEV 4th & 10 at NEV 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.3%
    average punt
  3. Q2 6:14NEV 4th & 1 at BOIS 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    10.1%−1.5
    27% to make
    Punt
    10.5%−1.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 5:17BOIS 4th & 7 at BOIS 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.9%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:10NEV 4th & 4 at NEV 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.9%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:13BOIS 4th & 10 at BOIS 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.4%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:03NEV 4th & 7 at NEV 14, tied
    Close callWent for it · 19.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.1%−0.8
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    16.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:52NEV 4th & 3 at NEV 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.5%−0.3
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:59BOIS 4th & 6 at BOIS 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:41NEV 4th & 2 at NEV 39, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.9%−1.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:16BOIS 4th & 5 at BOIS 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.5%−1.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.7%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:09NEV 4th & 5 at NEV 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%−0.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:27NEV 4th & 5 at BOIS 28, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.6%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    5.7%
    60% to make
    Punt
    2.9%−2.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:56NEV 4th & 1 at BOIS 3, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.3%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    4.9%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    2.0%−3.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:34BOIS 4th & 1 at BOIS 29, up 14
    Close callPunted · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.2%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BOIS made the numbers' call on 3 of 4NEV made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 7:36BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:12BOIS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:57NEV Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:14NEV Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:50BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:05BOIS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.7%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.8%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:19NEV Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NEVDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:147% → 7%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
93.5%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:48
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+2
93.5%
Sean Dollars run for 2 yds to the NEV 33Similar
Q1 14:14
3RD & 8
OWN 33
-8
93.4%
Brendon Lewis sacked by Jayden Virgin-Morgan for a loss of 8 yards to the NEV 25Similar
Q1 13:39
4TH & 16
OWN 25
+2
93.3%
Guy Gillespie punt for 45 yds , Latrell Caples returns for 2 yds to the BOIS 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 2TD
12 plays · 68 yds · 5:5593% → 93%
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
93.2%
Ashton Jeanty run for 2 yds to the BOIS 34Similar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+7
93.1%
Ashton Jeanty run for 7 yds to the BOIS 41Similar
Q1 12:19
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+3
93.0%
Ashton Jeanty run for 3 yds to the BOIS 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
92.9%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+5
92.8%
Jambres Dubar run for 5 yds to the BOIS 49Similar
Q1 11:08
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+12
92.7%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Matt Lauter for 12 yds to the NEV 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
92.6%
Ashton Jeanty run for 3 yds to the NEV 36Similar
Q1 9:53
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+8
92.5%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Matt Lauter for 8 yds to the NEV 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+17
92.4%
Ashton Jeanty run for 17 yds to the NEV 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+7
92.2%
Ashton Jeanty run for 7 yds to the NEV 4Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 3
OPP 4
-6
92.0%
Ashton Jeanty run for 4 yds Boise State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NEV 11Similar
Q1 7:36
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+11
92.7%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Matt Lauter for 11 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:488% → 8%
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
92.5%
Brendon Lewis run for 5 yds to the NEV 30Similar
Q1 7:01
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-13
92.3%
Sean Dollars run for a loss of 13 yards to the NEV 17 Sean Dollars fumbled, recovered by NEV Sean Dollars S. Dollars return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q1 6:24
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+8
92.4%
Sean Dollars run for 8 yds to the NEV 25Similar
Q1 5:48
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+11
92.4%
Guy Gillespie punt for 40 yds , Latrell Caples returns for 11 yds to the BOIS 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 4TD
4 plays · 54 yds · 1:2892% → 94%
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
92.4%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+46
92.3%
Ashton Jeanty run for 46 yds to the NEV 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
92.3%
Maddux Madsen run for 4 yds to the NEV 4Similar
Q1 4:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
93.5%
Ashton Jeanty run for 4 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 5TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 3:157% → 10%
Q1 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
92.9%
Sean Dollars run for 5 yds to the NEV 30Similar
Q1 3:34
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+26
92.9%
Sean Dollars run for 26 yds to the BOIS 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
92.6%
Sean Dollars run for a loss of 1 yard to the BOIS 45Similar
Q1 2:27
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+14
92.5%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Marcus Bellon for 14 yds to the BOIS 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+14
92.2%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Marcus Bellon for 14 yds to the BOIS 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
90.2%
Brendon Lewis run for 17 yds for a TD (Kian Afrookhteh KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 6INT
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:4291% → 91%
Q1 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
91.2%
Ashton Jeanty run for 1 yd to the BOIS 30Similar
Q1 0:10
2ND & 9
OWN 30
-2
91.0%
Maddux Madsen pass intercepted Tori Daffin return for 2 yds to the NEV 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 7FUMBLE
6 plays · 24 yds · 2:1410% → 10%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
90.4%
Brendon Lewis run for no gain to the NEV 47Similar
Q2 14:59
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+9
90.5%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Marcus Bellon for 9 yds to the BOIS 44Similar
Q2 14:18
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+6
90.0%
Brendon Lewis run for 6 yds to the BOIS 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
89.9%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jaden Smith for 8 yds to the BOIS 30Similar
Q2 12:52
2ND & 2
OPP 30
0
89.3%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:47
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+1
89.6%
Sean Dollars run for 1 yd to the BOIS 29 Sean Dollars fumbled, recovered by BOIS Marco Notarainni M. Notarainni return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 8FUMBLE
6 plays · 37 yds · 2:1591% → 91%
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
90.6%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Matt Lauter for 7 yds to the BOIS 36Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+4
90.8%
Ashton Jeanty run for 4 yds to the BOIS 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
90.8%
Ashton Jeanty run for 11 yds to the NEV 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+12
90.9%
Maddux Madsen run for 12 yds to the NEV 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
90.8%
Ashton Jeanty run for 3 yds to the NEV 34 Ashton Jeanty fumbled, recovered by NEV Stone Combs S. Combs return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 9TD
9 plays · 66 yds · 4:0511% → 17%
Q2 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
89.5%
Ky Woods run for 5 yds to the NEV 39Similar
Q2 9:47
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+1
89.0%
Caleb Ramseur run for 1 yd to the NEV 40Similar
Q2 9:09
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+7
89.1%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jaden Smith for 7 yds to the NEV 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
88.6%
Sean Dollars run for 1 yd to the NEV 48Similar
Q2 8:06
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+5
89.0%
Caleb Ramseur run for 5 yds to the BOIS 47Similar
Q2 7:31
3RD & 4
OPP 47
-10
88.6%
(07:31) QB Keeper LEWIS, Brendon rush up the middle for a gain of 7 yards to the BSU40 (BENEFIELD, Ty), clock 07:26. PENALTY NEV Holding on MADRIGAL, Andrew enforced 10 yards from the BSU47 to the NEV43 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:57
3RD & 14
OWN 43
+13
89.5%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 13 yds to the BOIS 44Similar
Q2 6:14
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+44
82.8%
Marcus Bellon pass complete to Caleb Ramseur for 44 yds for a TD (Kian Afrookhteh KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4986% → 84%
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
85.6%
Dylan Riley run for 3 yds to the BOIS 30Similar
Q2 5:31
2ND & 7
OWN 30
0
85.3%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:25
3RD & 7
OWN 30
0
84.7%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:17
4TH & 7
OWN 30
0
84.1%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 44 yds , Marcus Bellon returns for no gain to the NEV 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 2:0217% → 18%
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
82.9%
Marcus Bellon run for 2 yds to the NEV 28Similar
Q2 4:31
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+1
82.3%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Marquis Ashley for 1 yd to the NEV 29Similar
Q2 3:52
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+3
82.5%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Sean Dollars for 3 yds to the NEV 32Similar
Q2 3:10
4TH & 4
OWN 32
0
82.3%
Guy Gillespie punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Latrell Caples at the BOIS 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 1:5284% → 81%
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+23
84.0%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Matt Lauter for 23 yds to the BOIS 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
85.1%
Ashton Jeanty run for a loss of 5 yards to the BOIS 42Similar
Q2 2:01
2ND & 15
OWN 42
+2
83.6%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Ashton Jeanty for 2 yds to the BOIS 44Similar
Q2 1:54
3RD & 13
OWN 44
+8
82.3%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Cameron Camper for 8 yds to the NEV 48Similar
Q2 1:15
4TH & 5
OPP 48
-5
82.1%
Boise State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BOIS 47Similar
Q2 1:13
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
80.9%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 13DOWNS
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:0520% → 18%
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-1
80.1%
Sean Dollars run for a loss of 1 yard to the NEV 10Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 11
OWN 10
+7
80.2%
Brendon Lewis run for 7 yds to the NEV 17Similar
Q2 0:14
3RD & 4
OWN 17
-3
80.4%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Sean Dollars for a loss of 3 yards to the NEV 14Similar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 7
OWN 14
0
81.6%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 14TD
9 plays · 95 yds · 4:0782% → 89%
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
81.9%
Ashton Jeanty run for 1 yd to the BOIS 6Similar
Q3 14:22
2ND & 9
OWN 6
+15
81.5%
(14:22) MADSEN, Maddux pass to the right incomplete intended for CAPLES, Latrell thrown to the BSU21, clock 14:17. PENALTY NEV Pass Interference on COBB, Keyshawn enforced 15 yards to the BSU21 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
81.7%
Ashton Jeanty run for 9 yds to the BOIS 30Similar
Q3 13:39
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+38
82.5%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Cameron Camper for 38 yds to the NEV 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
83.7%
Ashton Jeanty run for 4 yds to the NEV 28Similar
Q3 12:38
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+18
83.2%
Maddux Madsen run for 18 yds to the NEV 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
83.0%
Ashton Jeanty run for no gain to the NEV 10Similar
Q3 11:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
82.8%
Maddux Madsen run for 9 yds to the NEV 1Similar
Q3 10:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
88.5%
Ashton Jeanty run for 1 yd for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5713% → 13%
Q3 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
86.6%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
86.8%
Brendon Lewis run for 7 yds to the NEV 32Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
86.2%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:52
4TH & 3
OWN 32
-7
86.8%
Guy Gillespie punt for 43 yds , Latrell Caples returns for a loss of 7 yards to the BOIS 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 16PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 3:4288% → 87%
Q3 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
87.6%
Ashton Jeanty run for no gain to the BOIS 18Similar
Q3 9:03
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+10
87.3%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Ashton Jeanty for 10 yds to the BOIS 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
87.5%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
87.2%
Ashton Jeanty run for no gain to the BOIS 28Similar
Q3 8:10
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+15
87.1%
(08:10) MADSEN, Maddux pass deep up the middle intercepted by CRAWFORD, Kitan at the BSU45 intended for PENRY, Chase. Crawford return for 23 yards to the BSU22 (HOLMES, Zach), clock 07:42. PENALTY NEV Pass Interference on COBB, Keyshawn enforced 15 yards to the BSU43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
88.8%
Maddux Madsen run for 3 yds to the BOIS 46Similar
Q3 6:49
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+1
88.8%
Ashton Jeanty run for 1 yd to the BOIS 47Similar
Q3 6:07
3RD & 6
OWN 47
0
88.1%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:59
4TH & 6
OWN 47
0
87.2%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 46 yds , Marquis Ashley returns for no gain to the NEV 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 4:0815% → 15%
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+8
85.3%
Sean Dollars run for 8 yds to the NEV 15Similar
Q3 5:16
2ND & 2
OWN 15
-2
85.0%
Sean Dollars run for a loss of 2 yards to the NEV 13Similar
Q3 4:35
3RD & 4
OWN 13
+5
86.0%
Boise State Penalty, Offsides (Braxton Fely) to the NEV 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+13
84.9%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 13 yds to the NEV 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
84.1%
Sean Dollars run for 2 yds to the NEV 33Similar
Q3 3:04
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+4
83.8%
Caleb Ramseur run for 4 yds to the NEV 37Similar
Q3 2:27
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+2
83.6%
Brendon Lewis run for 2 yds to the NEV 39Similar
Q3 1:41
4TH & 2
OWN 39
0
85.1%
Guy Gillespie punt for 34 yds, downed at the BOIS 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2087% → 88%
Q3 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
87.1%
Ashton Jeanty run for 2 yds to the BOIS 29Similar
Q3 1:02
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+3
88.2%
Maddux Madsen run for 3 yds to the BOIS 32Similar
Q3 0:22
3RD & 5
OWN 32
0
87.8%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:16
4TH & 5
OWN 32
0
87.9%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Marquis Ashley at the NEV 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0315% → 14%
Q3 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
84.8%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jaden Smith for 6 yds to the NEV 26Similar
Q4 14:59
2ND & 4
OWN 26
-1
84.1%
Sean Dollars run for a loss of 1 yard to the NEV 25Similar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
85.2%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:09
4TH & 5
OWN 25
+37
86.0%
Guy Gillespie punt for 37 yds , Seth Knothe returns for no gain to the BOIS 38 , returns for no gain to the BOIS 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 20TD
10 plays · 62 yds · 3:5590% → 98%
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
89.6%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:59
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+31
89.3%
Ashton Jeanty run for 31 yds to the NEV 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
90.6%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+9
90.5%
Ashton Jeanty run for 9 yds to the NEV 22Similar
Q4 12:40
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+3
90.1%
Ashton Jeanty run for 3 yds to the NEV 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
90.7%
Ashton Jeanty run for 9 yds to the NEV 10Similar
Q4 11:32
2ND & 1
OPP 10
+2
90.5%
Jambres Dubar run for 2 yds to the NEV 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
91.0%
Maddux Madsen run for 6 yds to the NEV 2Similar
Q4 10:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
91.0%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
97.7%
Ashton Jeanty run for 2 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 21FUMBLE
10 plays · 33 yds · 4:258% → 7%
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
92.4%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 5 yds to the BOIS 28Similar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 5
OPP 28
0
91.1%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:33
3RD & 5
OPP 28
0
92.5%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:27
4TH & 5
OPP 28
+16
93.3%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Nate Burleson II for 16 yds to the BOIS 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-5
92.1%
Nevada Penalty, False Start (Josiah Timoteo) to the BOIS 17Similar
Q4 8:16
1ST & 15
OPP 17
-8
92.6%
Brendon Lewis sacked by Max Stege for a loss of 8 yards to the BOIS 25Similar
Q4 7:26
2ND & 23
OPP 25
+6
92.7%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 6 yds to the BOIS 19Similar
Q4 6:42
3RD & 17
OPP 19
+16
93.7%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Sean Dollars for 16 yds to the BOIS 3Similar
Q4 5:56
4TH & 1
OPP 3
+2
93.7%
Sean Dollars run for 2 yds to the BOIS 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.8%
Sean Dollars run for 1 yd Sean Dollars fumbled, recovered by BOIS Jeremiah Earby J. Earby return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5098% → 98%
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
98.2%
Ashton Jeanty run for 1 yd to the BOIS 21Similar
Q4 4:41
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+8
98.3%
Ashton Jeanty run for 8 yds to the BOIS 29Similar
Q4 3:49
3RD & 1
OWN 29
0
98.5%
Ashton Jeanty run for no gain to the BOIS 29Similar
Q4 3:34
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
98.4%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 35 yds, downed at the NEV 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 23TD
4 plays · 64 yds · 1:043% → 14%
Q4 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+24
97.2%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Marshaun Brown for 24 yds to the BOIS 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
97.1%
Brendon Lewis run for 4 yds to the BOIS 36Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 6
OPP 36
0
96.9%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:19
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+36
86.0%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jaden Smith for 36 yds for a TD (Kian Afrookhteh KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 24END OF GAME
9 plays · 22 yds · 1:5095% → 98%
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
95.4%
Ashton Jeanty run for a loss of 5 yards to the NEV 49Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 15
OPP 49
+17
97.6%
Ashton Jeanty run for 17 yds to the NEV 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
97.7%
Maddux Madsen run for 3 yds to the NEV 29Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+10
97.9%
Ashton Jeanty run for 10 yds to the NEV 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-2
98.3%
(01:09) Kneel down by TEAM at NEV21 (team loss of 2), clock 01:03.Similar
Q4 0:27
2ND & 12
OPP 21
-1
98.3%
(00:27) Kneel down by TEAM at NEV22 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:19
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jaden Smith for 36 yds for a TD (Kian Afrookhteh KICK)
-10.9
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:17
Ashton Jeanty run for a loss of 5 yards to the NEV 49
+9.4
TD · Q2 6:14
Marcus Bellon pass complete to Caleb Ramseur for 44 yds for a TD (Kian Afrookhteh KICK)
-6.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com