2024 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2024 · War Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · WYO
modelWYO aheadBOIS aheadconfidence bandkey playWYO scoreBOIS score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:00 · Jonah Dalmas 24 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 9:36: Kaden Anderson pass complete to Justin Stevenson for 5 yds for a TD (John Hoyland KICK) — WYO win probability +4.4 pts (now 19%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- FG · Q4 9:03: John Hoyland 35 yd FG GOOD — WYO win probability +14.7 pts (now 64%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q4 5:02: Jambres Dubar run for 2 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK) — BOIS win probability +30.6 pts (now 85%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 4:52: Evan Svoboda pass incomplete — WYO win probability +10.9 pts (now 26%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 1:48: Timeout Wyoming, clock 01:48 — BOIS win probability +13.6 pts (now 92%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WYO made the numbers' call on 7 of 9BOIS made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
- Q1 11:43WYO 4th & 5 at BOIS 37, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 9.5% before the snapGo for it9.6%42% to convertField goalTheir call9.5%−0.140% to makePunt9.5%−0.1average punt
- Q1 9:20BOIS 4th & 4 at WYO 32, down 3Close callKicked a field goal · 89.3% before the snapGo for it89.3%48% to convertField goalTheir call89.2%−0.151% to makePunt89.2%−0.1average punt
- Q1 9:20WYO 4th & 2 at BOIS 40, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call10.8%57% to convertField goal10.6%−0.234% to makePunt10.7%−0.1average punt
- Q2 14:05WYO 4th & 1 at BOIS 7, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call14.7%70% to convertField goal14.0%−0.791% to makePunt12.0%−2.7average punt
- Q2 11:54BOIS 4th & 26 at BOIS 23, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.2% before the snapGo for it83.3%−1.26% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call84.5%average punt
- Q2 7:38BOIS 4th & 4 at BOIS 31, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.4% before the snapGo for it77.6%−0.548% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call78.0%average punt
- Q2 4:14WYO 4th & 10 at WYO 22, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.7% before the snapGo for it22.5%−1.428% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.9%average punt
- Q2 2:10BOIS 4th & 19 at BOIS 39, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.8% before the snapGo for it69.6%−1.611% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call71.2%average punt
- Q2 1:43WYO 4th & 6 at WYO 18, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.7% before the snapGo for it24.5%−1.038% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.4%average punt
- Q2 0:00BOIS 4th & 7 at WYO 7, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.4% before the snapGo for it71.8%−0.228% to convertField goalTheir call72.0%91% to makePunt65.3%−6.6average punt
- Q3 10:50BOIS 4th & 12 at BOIS 47, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 71.5% before the snapGo for it70.6%−1.823% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call72.3%average punt
- Q3 8:42WYO 4th & 4 at WYO 15, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 29.8% before the snapGo for it30.0%−0.547% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.5%average punt
- Q3 6:33BOIS 4th & 3 at WYO 44, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call70.9%52% to convertField goal67.5%−3.527% to makePunt69.3%−1.7average punt
- Q3 1:21WYO 4th & 14 at BOIS 37, tiedClose callPunted · 37.6% before the snapGo for it36.8%−1.519% to convertField goal38.3%40% to makePuntTheir call37.8%−0.5average punt
- Q4 13:28BOIS 4th & 7 at BOIS 46, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 60.9% before the snapGo for it61.0%−1.237% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call62.2%average punt
- Q4 9:03WYO 4th & 5 at BOIS 18, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.9% before the snapGo for it48.1%−0.940% to convertField goalTheir call49.0%79% to makePunt29.0%−20.0average punt
- Q4 1:52WYO 4th & 9 at WYO 42, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call17.1%32% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt13.0%−4.2average punt
- Q4 0:14BOIS 4th & 10 at WYO 30, up 4Numbers favored field goal by 1.7 ptsWent for it · 87.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call86.1%−1.729% to convertField goal87.8%56% to makePunt85.3%−2.5average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WYO made the numbers' call on 1 of 1BOIS made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 3:40BOIS Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.7%97% to makeGo for two87.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:36WYO Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call20.3%97% to makeGo for two20.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:02BOIS Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call71.4%97% to makeGo for two70.9%−0.545% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWYODrive 1FG8 plays · 38 yds · 3:177% → 8%
BOISDrive 2MISSED FG6 plays · 31 yds · 2:1592% → 91%
WYODrive 3MISSED FG9 plays · 32 yds · 4:549% → 11%
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
8.7%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Jaylen Sargent for 9 yds to the WYO 41Similar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+11
8.8%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to John Michael Gyllenborg for 11 yds to the BOIS 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:20
4TH & 2
OPP 40
+6
8.7%
Harrison Waylee run for 6 yds to the BOIS 34 Harrison Waylee fumbled, recovered by WYO Nofoafia Tulafono N. Tulafono return for 0 yds for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 4TD2 plays · 64 yds · 0:4689% → 90%
WYODrive 5DOWNS10 plays · 68 yds · 4:3510% → 13%
Q1 3:40
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+15
10.2%
Boise State Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the WYO 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
10.6%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to John Michael Gyllenborg for no gain fumbled, forced by Rodney Robinson, recovered by WYO John Michael Gyllenborg J. Michael Gyllenborg return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q1 3:40
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+31
10.6%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Jaylen Sargent for 31 yds to the BOIS 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 10
-10
12.7%
WAYLEE, Harrison rush to the left for a gain of 1 yard to the BSU9 (WASHINGTON, Zion), clock 00:00. PENALTY WYO Holding on TULAFONO, Nofoafia enforced 10 yards from the BSU10 to the BSU20 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 6PUNT6 plays · 16 yds · 2:1188% → 86%
Q2 14:05
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-1
11.8%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Matt Lauter for a loss of 1 yard to the BOIS 38Similar
Q2 14:05
3RD & 11
OWN 38
-15
12.1%
Boise State Penalty, turnover on downs. PENALTY Personal Foul on CARREON, Roger enforced (-15 Yards) to the BOIS 23Similar
Q2 11:54
4TH & 26
OWN 23
+1
13.6%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 45 yds , Caleb Cooley returns for 1 yd to the WYO 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 7TD4 plays · 67 yds · 2:1813% → 19%
BOISDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:5883% → 80%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 9PUNT6 plays · 15 yds · 3:2419% → 21%
BOISDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 2:0478% → 75%
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
21.8%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Cameron Camper for 11 yds to the BOIS 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:14
3RD & 9
OWN 49
-10
21.5%
Maddux Madsen sacked by Shae Suiaunoa for a loss of 10 yards to the BOIS 39Similar
Q2 2:10
4TH & 19
OWN 39
0
25.4%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Tyler King at the WYO 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 11PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:2724% → 23%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 12FG10 plays · 50 yds · 1:4378% → 81%
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+12
22.4%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Latrell Caples for 12 yds to the WYO 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+17
21.5%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Cameron Camper for 17 yds to the WYO 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:43
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+23
20.8%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Cameron Camper for 23 yds to the WYO 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-7
21.4%
Maddux Madsen sacked by DeVonne Harris for a loss of 7 yards to the WYO 12Similar
Q2 0:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
+5
22.9%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Matt Wagner for 5 yds to the WYO 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 13PUNT11 plays · 34 yds · 4:0578% → 74%
Q3 14:55
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+18
20.8%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Matt Lauter for 18 yds to the BOIS 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 2
OPP 43
-10
19.3%
DUBAR, Jambres rush to the right for no gain to the WYO43 (DAY, Ethan). PENALTY BSU Holding enforced 10 yards from the WYO43 to the BSU47 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-6
21.7%
JEANTY, Ashton rush up the middle for no gain to the BSU13 (SUIAUNOA, Shae;HARRIS, DeVonne). PENALTY BSU Personal Foul enforced half the distance from the goal, 6 yards from the BSU13 to the BSU7 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 17
OWN 6
+11
22.0%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Cameron Camper for 11 yds to the BOIS 17Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+3
21.7%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Austin Bolt for 3 yds to the BOIS 20Similar
Q3 10:50
4TH & 12
OWN 47
0
26.3%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Tyler King at the WYO 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 14PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 2:0827% → 25%
Q3 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-10
24.5%
JEANTY, Ashton rush to the left for a gain of 2 yards to the WYO49 (FLORENTINE, Ben;WESTLAND, Tyce). PENALTY BSU Holding enforced 10 yards from the BSU49 to the BSU39 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 15DOWNS5 plays · 7 yds · 2:0973% → 72%
Q3 8:42
2ND & 20
OWN 39
+12
26.9%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Cameron Camper for 12 yds to the WYO 49Similar
Q3 8:42
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+5
25.3%
MADSEN, Maddux sacked for a loss of 7 yards at the BSU44 (WESTLAND, Tyce). PENALTY WYO Offsides enforced 5 yards from the WYO49 to the WYO44 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 16PUNT10 plays · 19 yds · 5:1235% → 35%
BOISDrive 17PUNT8 plays · 36 yds · 2:5366% → 64%
WYODrive 18FG8 plays · 70 yds · 4:2540% → 64%
BOISDrive 19TD8 plays · 75 yds · 4:0145% → 85%
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+14
48.5%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Prince Strachan for 14 yds to the WYO 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 20DOWNS9 plays · 10 yds · 3:0026% → 21%
Q4 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
26.8%
Evan Svoboda pass complete to Jaylen Sargent for 5 yds to the WYO 35Similar
Q4 4:52
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+4
27.9%
Evan Svoboda pass complete to Chris Durr Jr. for 4 yds to the WYO 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:52
4TH & 9
OWN 42
-12
21.1%
Evan Svoboda sacked by Ahmed Hassanein for a loss of 12 yards to the WYO 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 21DOWNS7 plays · 0 yds · 1:3493% → 94%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:02
Jambres Dubar run for 2 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)
-30.6
FG · Q4 9:03
John Hoyland 35 yd FG GOOD
+14.7
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:48
Timeout Wyoming, clock 01:48
-13.6