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BOIS

Boise State 29 at UNLV 24

UNLV
2024 · Week 9 · Oct 25, 2024 · Allegiant Stadium
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Win probability · UNLV
modelUNLV aheadBOIS aheadconfidence bandkey playUNLV scoreBOIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:09 · James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 47 yds , Jacob De Jesus returns for 11 yds to the UNLV 34
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 19Pregame prior−11.3Home team on offense−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:50: Maddux Madsen run for 7 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK) — BOIS win probability +10.9 pts (now 65%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:06: Maddux Madsen pass complete to Matt Lauter for 2 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK) — BOIS win probability +8.7 pts (now 73%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:10: Hajj-Malik Williams run for 5 yds for a TD (Caden Chittenden KICK) — UNLV win probability +15.6 pts (now 47%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q3 1:03: Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Jaden Bradley for 34 yds for a TD (Caden Chittenden KICK) — UNLV win probability +26.1 pts (now 63%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:38: Ashton Jeanty run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — BOIS win probability +23.6 pts (now 74%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNLV made the numbers' call on 7 of 7BOIS made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 11:34BOIS 4th & 4 at UNLV 20, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 57.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.6%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.6%−<0.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    57.2%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:47UNLV 4th & 10 at BOIS 10, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.6%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.8%
    88% to make
    Punt
    41.8%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:09BOIS 4th & 18 at BOIS 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.5%−0.6
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:18BOIS 4th & 13 at BOIS 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.2%−0.8
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:00UNLV 4th & 19 at BOIS 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.8%−1.1
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.8%
    47% to make
    Punt
    51.4%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:22BOIS 4th & 11 at UNLV 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.9%−0.9
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.8%
    62% to make
    Punt
    40.4%−4.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:31UNLV 4th & 10 at UNLV 37, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.9%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:40BOIS 4th & 2 at UNLV 21, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    47.6%−0.7
    74% to make
    Punt
    43.3%−5.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:06BOIS 4th & 2 at UNLV 2, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    58.6%−1.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    53.8%−6.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:24BOIS 4th & 11 at UNLV 11, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.0%−2.2
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.1%
    87% to make
    Punt
    46.9%−11.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:51UNLV 4th & 13 at UNLV 22, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%−4.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:27BOIS 4th & 10 at midfield, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.1%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:42UNLV 4th & 7 at UNLV 20, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%−1.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:47BOIS 4th & 7 at BOIS 27, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.5%−1.6
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:38BOIS 4th & 1 at UNLV 1, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    39.0%−6.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    21.8%−23.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:28UNLV 4th & 1 at UNLV 45, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    29.8%−6.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:18UNLV 4th & 25 at UNLV 36, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.6%−6.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:00BOIS 4th & 1 at UNLV 36, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    86.1%−3.9
    42% to make
    Punt
    84.8%−5.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNLV made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BOIS made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 4:30UNLV Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:50BOIS Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:06BOIS Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:10UNLV Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:03UNLV Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:38BOIS Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    68.0%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    68.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BOISDrive 1FG
7 plays · 55 yds · 3:2463% → 62%
Q1 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
37.2%
Ashton Jeanty run for a loss of 1 yard to the BOIS 24Similar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+1
37.4%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Latrell Caples for 1 yd to the BOIS 25Similar
Q1 13:41
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+49
37.7%
Maddux Madsen run for 49 yds to the UNLV 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
37.6%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:56
2ND & 10
OPP 26
-4
37.7%
Ashton Jeanty run for a loss of 4 yards to the UNLV 30Similar
Q1 12:14
3RD & 14
OPP 30
+10
38.1%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Matt Lauter for 10 yds to the UNLV 20Similar
Q1 11:34
4TH & 4
OPP 20
+37
38.1%
Jonah Dalmas 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 2FG
6 plays · 64 yds · 2:3938% → 40%
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
38.2%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:24
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+71
38.2%
Hajj-Malik Williams run for 71 yds to the BOIS 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
39.1%
Kylin James run for a loss of 1 yard to the BOIS 4Similar
Q1 10:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
39.3%
Kylin James run for 1 yd to the BOIS 3Similar
Q1 9:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-7
39.3%
Hajj-Malik Williams sacked by Alexander Teubner for a loss of 7 yards to the BOIS 10Similar
Q1 8:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+28
39.6%
Caden Chittenden 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:3661% → 60%
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
39.2%
Ashton Jeanty run for 13 yds to the BOIS 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
39.1%
(08:25) JEANTY, Ashton rush to the left for a gain of 4 yards to the BSU42 (CATALON, Jalen;ELAD, Jett), clock 08:19. PENALTY BSU Holding on SCHMIDT, Hall enforced 10 yards from the BSU38 to the BSU28 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 8:02
1ST & 20
OWN 28
+2
39.6%
Ashton Jeanty run for 2 yds to the BOIS 30Similar
Q1 7:21
2ND & 18
OWN 30
0
39.7%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:15
3RD & 18
OWN 30
0
40.1%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:09
4TH & 18
OWN 30
+11
40.4%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 47 yds , Jacob De Jesus returns for 11 yds to the UNLV 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 4TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 2:3040% → 46%
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
40.1%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 5 yds to the UNLV 39Similar
Q1 6:28
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+6
40.9%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 6 yds to the UNLV 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+50
41.1%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Casey Cain for 50 yds to the BOIS 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
41.9%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-4
41.9%
Hajj-Malik Williams sacked by Seyi Oladipo for a loss of 4 yards to the BOIS 9Similar
Q1 4:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
45.8%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Kaleo Ballungay for 9 yds for a TD (Caden Chittenden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:1055% → 53%
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
44.9%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Ashton Jeanty for 5 yds to the BOIS 30Similar
Q1 3:49
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+13
45.0%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Matt Lauter for 13 yds to the BOIS 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
45.2%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:05
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-5
45.4%
Boise State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BOIS 38Similar
Q1 3:03
2ND & 15
OWN 38
+2
45.9%
Ashton Jeanty run for 2 yds to the BOIS 40Similar
Q1 2:23
3RD & 13
OWN 40
0
46.2%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:18
4TH & 13
OWN 40
0
46.7%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 49 yds, downed at the UNLV 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 6MISSED FG
12 plays · 55 yds · 4:0747% → 49%
Q1 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
46.6%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:04
2ND & 10
OWN 11
-5
46.5%
UNLV Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UNLV 6Similar
Q1 2:02
2ND & 15
OWN 6
+18
46.5%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Ricky White III for 18 yds to the UNLV 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+29
47.3%
Kylin James run for 29 yds to the BOIS 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
48.8%
Kylin James run for 2 yds to the BOIS 45Similar
Q1 0:12
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+8
49.4%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Ricky White III for 8 yds fumbled, recovered by UNLV for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+12
49.6%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 12 yds to the BOIS 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
49.7%
Cameron Friel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+4
49.7%
Hajj-Malik Williams run for 4 yds to the BOIS 21Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 21
-5
49.2%
UNLV Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BOIS 26Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 26
-8
49.1%
Hajj-Malik Williams sacked by Jayden Virgin-Morgan for a loss of 8 yards to the BOIS 34Similar
Q2 13:00
4TH & 19
OPP 34
+52
48.6%
Caden Chittenden 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 7FG
10 plays · 39 yds · 3:3851% → 53%
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
48.7%
Ashton Jeanty run for 5 yds to the BOIS 39Similar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+6
48.1%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Prince Strachan for 6 yds to the BOIS 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
48.7%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Austin Bolt for 15 yds to the UNLV 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
48.4%
Ashton Jeanty run for 8 yds to the UNLV 32Similar
Q2 10:54
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+6
47.5%
Ashton Jeanty run for 6 yds to the UNLV 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
47.9%
Ashton Jeanty run for 4 yds to the UNLV 22Similar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 6
OPP 22
0
48.5%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:31
3RD & 6
OPP 22
-5
49.7%
Boise State Penalty, Illegal Snap on HOLMES, Zach enforced (-5 Yards) to the UNLV 27Similar
Q2 9:28
3RD & 11
OPP 27
0
50.2%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:22
4TH & 11
OPP 27
+44
47.1%
Jonah Dalmas 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:5147% → 48%
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
47.4%
Hajj-Malik Williams run for 1 yd to the UNLV 26Similar
Q2 8:52
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
47.5%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Ricky White III for 8 yds to the UNLV 34Similar
Q2 8:17
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
48.1%
Hajj-Malik Williams run for 3 yds to the UNLV 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
49.9%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
49.6%
Kylin James run for 3 yds to the UNLV 40Similar
Q2 6:58
3RD & 7
OWN 40
-3
49.6%
Kylin James run for a loss of 3 yards to the UNLV 37Similar
Q2 6:31
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
48.2%
Marshall Nichols punt for 63 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 9TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 4:3551% → 65%
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
49.0%
Ashton Jeanty run for 12 yds to the BOIS 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
48.7%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:52
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+11
49.1%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Cameron Bates for 11 yds to the BOIS 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+28
47.6%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Austin Bolt for 28 yds to the UNLV 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
45.9%
Ashton Jeanty run for 1 yd to the UNLV 28Similar
Q2 4:05
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+2
46.4%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Cameron Camper for 2 yds to the UNLV 26Similar
Q2 3:23
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+5
47.8%
Ashton Jeanty run for 5 yds to the UNLV 21Similar
Q2 2:40
4TH & 2
OPP 21
+13
48.9%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Matt Lauter for 13 yds to the UNLV 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
46.3%
Ashton Jeanty run for 2 yds to the UNLV 6Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
46.3%
Ashton Jeanty run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 7Similar
Q2 1:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
35.5%
Maddux Madsen run for 7 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 10INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2240% → 34%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
40.0%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
39.7%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-10
34.3%
(01:28) JEANTY, Ashton rush to the left for a gain of 7 yards to the NLV0, TOUCHDOWN BSU, score nullified by penalty, clock 01:29 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY BSU Holding on KEINATH, Tyler enforced 10 yards from the NLV7 to the NLV17 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 11TD
7 plays · 7 yds · 1:2965% → 75%
Q2 1:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 17
0
34.9%
Ashton Jeanty run for no gain to the UNLV 17Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 17
0
34.9%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 17
+15
36.7%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Cameron Camper for 15 yds to the UNLV 2Similar
Q2 0:06
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
27.5%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Matt Lauter for 2 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
25.3%
Kneel down by TEAM at NLV32 (team loss of 1).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 12TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 3:4029% → 47%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+24
29.1%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Ricky White III for 24 yds to the BOIS 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
31.1%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 2 yds to the BOIS 44Similar
Q3 13:47
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+3
30.7%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Jaden Bradley for 3 yds to the BOIS 41Similar
Q3 13:25
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+7
30.3%
Hajj-Malik Williams run for 7 yds to the BOIS 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
31.7%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+7
31.4%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to DeAngelo Irvin Jr. for 7 yds to the BOIS 27Similar
Q3 12:23
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+9
30.0%
Hajj-Malik Williams run for 9 yds to the BOIS 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+13
31.2%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to DeAngelo Irvin Jr. for 13 yds to the BOIS 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
46.8%
Hajj-Malik Williams run for 5 yds for a TD (Caden Chittenden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 13FG
8 plays · 64 yds · 2:4659% → 68%
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
40.8%
Ashton Jeanty run for 16 yds to the BOIS 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
38.6%
Ashton Jeanty run for 4 yds to the BOIS 45Similar
Q3 9:56
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+8
37.2%
Ashton Jeanty run for 8 yds to the UNLV 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+37
36.7%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Prince Strachan for 37 yds to the UNLV 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
35.2%
Ashton Jeanty run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 11Similar
Q3 8:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
35.5%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
37.1%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:24
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+29
31.6%
Jonah Dalmas 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:3136% → 33%
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
36.0%
Kylin James run for 4 yds to the UNLV 29Similar
Q3 7:44
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-9
36.4%
UNLV Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Hajj-Malik Williams) to the UNLV 20Similar
Q3 7:40
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+14
34.2%
Hajj-Malik Williams run for 14 yds to the UNLV 34Similar
Q3 7:08
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-12
34.2%
(07:08) WILLIAMS, Hajj-Malik scrambles to the left for a gain of 3 yards to the NLV37 (SIMPSON, Andrew), clock 07:01. PENALTY NLV Illegal Block in the Back on WHITE III, Ricky enforced 12 yards from the NLV34 to the NLV22 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:51
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
32.7%
Marshall Nichols punt for 28 yds, downed at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:2271% → 68%
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
50
+1
29.0%
Ashton Jeanty run for 1 yd to the UNLV 49Similar
Q3 6:14
2ND & 9
OPP 49
-1
28.9%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Ashton Jeanty for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:34
3RD & 10
50
0
29.8%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:27
4TH & 10
50
+1
32.1%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 39 yds , DeAngelo Irvin Jr. returns for 1 yd to the UNLV 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:4035% → 32%
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-1
35.1%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Ricky White III for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 16Similar
Q3 4:49
2ND & 11
OWN 16
-5
34.3%
Hajj-Malik Williams sacked by Jayden Virgin-Morgan and Seyi Oladipo for a loss of 5 yards to the UNLV 11Similar
Q3 4:09
3RD & 16
OWN 11
+9
32.9%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 9 yds to the UNLV 20Similar
Q3 3:42
4TH & 7
OWN 20
0
32.0%
Marshall Nichols punt for 56 yds , Cooper Jones returns for no gain to the BOIS 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4770% → 68%
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
29.7%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+3
30.8%
Ashton Jeanty run for 3 yds to the BOIS 27Similar
Q3 2:53
3RD & 7
OWN 27
0
30.1%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:47
4TH & 7
OWN 27
+17
32.1%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 43 yds , DeAngelo Irvin Jr. returns for 17 yds to the UNLV 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 18TD
6 plays · 53 yds · 1:3537% → 63%
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
36.5%
Kylin James run for 1 yd to the UNLV 48Similar
Q3 2:06
2ND & 9
OWN 48
0
36.0%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:59
3RD & 9
OWN 48
+13
32.7%
Hajj-Malik Williams run for 13 yds to the BOIS 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
36.6%
Kylin James run for 5 yds to the BOIS 34Similar
Q3 1:03
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+34
62.7%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Jaden Bradley for 34 yds for a TD (Caden Chittenden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 19TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:2545% → 74%
Q3 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
55.2%
Ashton Jeanty run for 7 yds to the BOIS 32Similar
Q3 0:25
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+3
52.8%
Ashton Jeanty run for 3 yds to the BOIS 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
54.4%
UNLV Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Jarvis Ware) to the UNLV 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:39
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+22
48.0%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Matt Wagner for 22 yds to the UNLV 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
48.1%
Ashton Jeanty run for 1 yd to the UNLV 6Similar
Q4 13:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
47.8%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
49.9%
Ashton Jeanty run for 5 yds to the UNLV 1Similar
Q4 12:38
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
26.2%
Ashton Jeanty run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 20PUNT
10 plays · 11 yds · 4:1831% → 28%
Q4 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
30.9%
Hajj-Malik Williams run for 11 yds to the UNLV 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
32.2%
Hajj-Malik Williams run for no gain to the UNLV 36Similar
Q4 11:27
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+6
31.5%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 6 yds to the UNLV 42Similar
Q4 10:56
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+3
32.9%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 3 yds to the UNLV 45Similar
Q4 10:28
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+6
31.6%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 6 yds to the BOIS 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
36.4%
Hajj-Malik Williams run for 1 yd to the BOIS 48Similar
Q4 9:44
2ND & 9
OPP 48
-15
36.0%
UNLV Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the UNLV 37Similar
Q4 9:24
2ND & 24
OWN 37
+5
31.0%
Hajj-Malik Williams run for 5 yds to the UNLV 42Similar
Q4 8:48
3RD & 19
OWN 42
-6
29.6%
Hajj-Malik Williams sacked by Ahmed Hassanein and Herbert Gums for a loss of 6 yards to the UNLV 36Similar
Q4 8:18
4TH & 25
OWN 36
+5
27.8%
Marshall Nichols punt for 55 yds , Cooper Jones returns for 5 yds to the BOIS 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 21END OF GAME
17 plays · 48 yds · 7:3775% → 94%
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
25.5%
Ashton Jeanty run for 3 yds to the BOIS 17Similar
Q4 7:42
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+3
25.1%
Ashton Jeanty run for 3 yds to the BOIS 20Similar
Q4 6:57
3RD & 4
OWN 20
+10
23.5%
(06:57) MADSEN, Maddux pass to the right incomplete intended for STRACHAN, Prince thrown to the BSU26, clock 06:52. PENALTY NLV Holding on GRIMES, Tony enforced 10 yards from the BSU20 to the BSU30 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
21.2%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Ashton Jeanty for 7 yds to the BOIS 37Similar
Q4 6:13
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+1
19.9%
Ashton Jeanty run for 1 yd to the BOIS 38Similar
Q4 5:34
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+3
18.1%
Ashton Jeanty run for 3 yds to the BOIS 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
14.7%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Tyler Crowe for 4 yds to the BOIS 45Similar
Q4 4:16
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+10
14.4%
Ashton Jeanty run for 10 yds to the UNLV 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
12.7%
Ashton Jeanty run for 5 yds to the UNLV 40Similar
Q4 2:54
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+3
10.4%
Tyler Crowe run for 3 yds to the UNLV 37Similar
Q4 2:10
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+1
9.4%
Ashton Jeanty run for 1 yd to the UNLV 36Similar
Q4 2:00
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+2
8.7%
Maddux Madsen run for 2 yds to the UNLV 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-2
6.5%
(01:53) Kneel down by TEAM at NLV36 (team loss of 2), clock 01:45.Similar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 12
OPP 36
-1
5.4%
(01:19) Kneel down by TEAM at NLV37 (team loss of 1), clock 01:08.Similar
Q4 0:32
3RD & 13
OPP 37
-1
5.6%
(00:32) Kneel down by TEAM at NLV38 (team loss of 1), clock 00:29.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:03
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Jaden Bradley for 34 yds for a TD (Caden Chittenden KICK)
+26.1
TD · Q4 12:38
Ashton Jeanty run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-23.6
TD · Q3 11:10
Hajj-Malik Williams run for 5 yds for a TD (Caden Chittenden KICK)
+15.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com