Try the model
BOIS

Boise State 34 at Oregon 37

ORE
2024 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2024 · Autzen Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ORE
modelORE aheadBOIS aheadconfidence bandkey playORE scoreBOIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:27 · James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the ORE 28
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+40.5+20.30−20.3−40.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 24Pregame prior+35.7Home team on offense−0.7Score differential−0.6Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3Blowout margin+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:51: Maddux Madsen pass complete to Cameron Camper for 17 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK) — BOIS win probability +6.4 pts (now 25%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:09: Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 59 yds for a TD (Atticus Sappington PAT MISSED) — ORE win probability +10.3 pts (now 75%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:09: Ashton Jeanty run for 70 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK) — BOIS win probability +27.2 pts (now 37%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:15: Ashton Jeanty run for 8 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK) — BOIS win probability +29.3 pts (now 75%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:59: Jayden Limar 0 Yd Kickoff Return (Atticus Sappington Kick) — ORE win probability +34.7 pts (now 60%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORE made the numbers' call on 6 of 7BOIS made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 12:36ORE 4th & 2 at ORE 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.2%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:29BOIS 4th & 11 at ORE 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.6%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.7%
    66% to make
    Punt
    12.3%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:16ORE 4th & 6 at ORE 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.9%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:27BOIS 4th & 2 at BOIS 28, up 3
    Close callPunted · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.3%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:15ORE 4th & 22 at ORE 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.7%−1.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:35BOIS 4th & 11 at BOIS 19, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%−0.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:30BOIS 4th & 8 at BOIS 27, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.1%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:52ORE 4th & 7 at BOIS 46, down 3
    Close callPunted · 73.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    72.2%−1.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    72.9%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:14BOIS 4th & 3 at BOIS 45, up 6
    Close callPunted · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.3%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:06BOIS 4th & 12 at BOIS 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.7%−2.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:05ORE 4th & 11 at ORE 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.5%−3.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:57BOIS 4th & 10 at BOIS 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.9%−2.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:22BOIS 4th & 10 at ORE 37, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.1%
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.0%−0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    15.6%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:55BOIS 4th & 14 at BOIS 33, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.6%−5.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:33ORE 4th & 16 at ORE 34, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.3%−10.9
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:36BOIS 4th & 6 at BOIS 26, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.0%−1.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:00ORE 4th & 7 at BOIS 7, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.1%−5.6
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    63.3%−28.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORE made the numbers' call on 4 of 4BOIS made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 4:36ORE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:20BOIS Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:28ORE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:51BOIS Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:09ORE Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    73.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:09BOIS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:15BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.3%−0.5
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:59ORE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.9%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OREDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 2:1590% → 90%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
90.3%
Jordan James run for 7 yds to the ORE 32Similar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-6
90.2%
Dillon Gabriel sacked by Ahmed Hassanein for a loss of 6 yards to the ORE 26Similar
Q1 13:48
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+5
90.0%
(13:53) No Huddle-Shotgun Gabriel,Dillon pass complete short left to Holden,Traeshon caught at ORE30, for 7 yards to the ORE33 (Benefield,Ty; McCoy,A'Marion) PENALTY BSU Offside (Virgin-Morgan,Jayden) 5 yards from ORE26 to ORE31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:23
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+2
89.9%
Dillon Gabriel run for 2 yds to the ORE 33Similar
Q1 12:36
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+17
89.7%
Ross James punt for 33 yds , Latrell Caples returns for 17 yds to the ORE 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 2FG
8 plays · 24 yds · 2:5810% → 11%
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
89.6%
Sire Gaines run for 4 yds to the ORE 45Similar
Q1 11:48
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+4
89.4%
Ashton Jeanty run for 4 yds to the ORE 41Similar
Q1 11:31
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+17
89.3%
Ashton Jeanty run for 17 yds to the ORE 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
89.0%
Ashton Jeanty run for 4 yds to the ORE 20Similar
Q1 10:21
2ND & 6
OPP 20
-5
88.8%
PENALTY BSU False Start (Schmidt,Hall) 5 yards from ORE20 to ORE25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:57
2ND & 11
OPP 25
0
88.7%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Chris Marshall for no gain to the ORE 25Similar
Q1 9:33
3RD & 11
OPP 25
0
88.6%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:29
4TH & 11
OPP 25
+42
88.7%
Jonah Dalmas 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 2:0289% → 88%
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
88.5%
Jordan James run for 3 yds to the ORE 28Similar
Q1 8:57
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
88.3%
Jordan James run for 5 yds to the ORE 33Similar
Q1 8:26
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
88.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Evan Stewart for 1 yd to the ORE 34Similar
Q1 7:42
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-5
87.8%
PENALTY ORE Delay Of Game (Gabriel,Dillon) 5 yards from ORE34 to ORE29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:16
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
87.5%
Ross James punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Latrell Caples at the BOIS 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4312% → 13%
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
87.7%
Ashton Jeanty run for 2 yds to the BOIS 18Similar
Q1 6:35
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+6
87.6%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Latrell Caples for 6 yds to the BOIS 24Similar
Q1 6:09
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+4
87.5%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Chase Penry for 4 yds to the BOIS 28Similar
Q1 5:27
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
87.3%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the ORE 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 5TD
3 plays · 72 yds · 0:4187% → 88%
Q1 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+67
86.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Evan Stewart for 67 yds to the BOIS 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
87.4%
Noah Whittington run for 4 yds to the BOIS 1Similar
Q1 4:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
88.4%
Dillon Gabriel run for 1 yd for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 6TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:1012% → 17%
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
87.9%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Cameron Camper for 21 yds to the BOIS 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+21
87.3%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Latrell Caples for 21 yds to the ORE 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
86.8%
Ashton Jeanty run for 7 yds to the ORE 26Similar
Q1 2:38
2ND & 3
OPP 26
-5
86.3%
(02:43) Jeanty,Ashton rush right for 9 yards gain to the ORE17 (Jacobs,Jestin; Bassa,Jeffrey) PENALTY BSU Illegal Formation (Camper,Cameron) 5 yards from ORE26 to ORE31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:12
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+6
86.2%
Ashton Jeanty run for 6 yds to the ORE 25Similar
Q1 1:30
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+3
86.2%
Ashton Jeanty run for 3 yds to the ORE 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
85.7%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:49
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+11
85.7%
(00:54) Shotgun Madsen,Maddux pass incomplete short left to Strachan,Prince thrown to ORE15 PENALTY ORE Roughing The Passer (Harmon,Derrick) 11 yard from ORE22 to ORE11, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+8
85.3%
Maddux Madsen run for 8 yds to the ORE 3Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 2
OPP 3
0
85.2%
Ashton Jeanty run for no gain to the ORE 3Similar
Q2 14:20
3RD & 2
OPP 3
+3
83.0%
Ashton Jeanty run for 3 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 2:5484% → 82%
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
83.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Kenyon Sadiq for 6 yds to the ORE 31Similar
Q2 13:32
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+12
84.2%
Jordan James run for 12 yds to the ORE 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
84.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tez Johnson for 3 yds to the ORE 46Similar
Q2 12:36
2ND & 7
OWN 46
-8
84.1%
Dillon Gabriel sacked by Rodney Robinson for a loss of 8 yards to the ORE 38Similar
Q2 11:57
3RD & 15
OWN 38
-7
82.6%
Dillon Gabriel sacked by Seyi Oladipo for a loss of 7 yards to the ORE 31Similar
Q2 11:15
4TH & 22
OWN 31
0
81.7%
Ross James punt for 69 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:3518% → 18%
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
82.1%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:01
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+1
82.0%
Ashton Jeanty run for 1 yd to the BOIS 19Similar
Q2 10:13
3RD & 11
OWN 19
0
82.1%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Ashton Jeanty for no gain to the BOIS 19Similar
Q2 9:35
4TH & 11
OWN 19
+24
82.0%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 39 yds , Tez Johnson returns for 24 yds to the BOIS 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 9TD
1 play · 34 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
86.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Evan Stewart for 34 yds for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4816% → 15%
Q2 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
84.5%
Sire Gaines run for 2 yds to the BOIS 27Similar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
84.2%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:38
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
84.7%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:30
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
85.0%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the ORE 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · -24 yds · 2:1984% → 83%
Q2 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-10
84.4%
(08:26) No Huddle-Shotgun Johnson,Tez rush right for 7 yards gain to the ORE35 (Washington,Zion) PENALTY ORE Holding (Sadiq,Kenyon) 10 yards from ORE28 to ORE18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:56
1ST & 20
OWN 18
+4
84.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 4 yds to the ORE 22Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 16
OWN 22
-11
84.5%
PENALTY ORE UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Holden,Traeshon) 11 yard from ORE22 to ORE11. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 27
OWN 11
+4
84.3%
Dillon Gabriel run for 4 yds to the ORE 15Similar
Q2 6:51
3RD & 23
OWN 15
-11
83.6%
Dillon Gabriel sacked by Andrew Simpson for a loss of 11 yards to the ORE 4Similar
Q2 6:04
4TH & 34
OWN 4
+22
82.9%
Ross James punt for 48 yds , Cooper Jones returns for 22 yds to the ORE 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 12TD
3 plays · 30 yds · 1:0519% → 25%
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
81.5%
Ashton Jeanty run for no gain to the ORE 30Similar
Q2 5:16
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+13
81.3%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Latrell Caples for 13 yds to the ORE 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
74.8%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Cameron Camper for 17 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 2:5078% → 75%
Q2 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
77.6%
Jordan James run for 11 yds to the ORE 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
77.9%
Jordan James run for 3 yds to the ORE 33Similar
Q2 3:42
2ND & 13
OWN 33
+3
76.8%
Jordan James run for 3 yds to the ORE 36Similar
Q2 3:15
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+15
76.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 15 yds to the BOIS 49 for a 1ST down Boise State Penalty, Defensive Offside (Ty Benefield) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
78.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Evan Stewart for 4 yds to the BOIS 45Similar
Q2 2:37
2ND & 6
OPP 45
0
78.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:23
3RD & 6
OPP 45
-1
77.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tez Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the BOIS 46Similar
Q2 1:52
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
75.2%
Ross James punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 14FG
13 plays · 77 yds · 1:3926% → 37%
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+31
74.1%
Ashton Jeanty run for 31 yds to the ORE 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
72.1%
Ashton Jeanty run for 1 yd to the ORE 48Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+3
71.4%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Austin Bolt for 3 yds to the ORE 45Similar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+10
71.5%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Matt Lauter for 10 yds to the ORE 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
70.0%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+8
69.9%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Ashton Jeanty for 8 yds to the ORE 27Similar
Q2 0:38
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+12
69.1%
Ashton Jeanty run for 12 yds to the ORE 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
67.8%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+12
67.6%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Prince Strachan for 12 yds to the ORE 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
67.5%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
67.4%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
62.7%
Jonah Dalmas 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
68.1%
D. Gabriel takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:4033% → 36%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
67.0%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
67.4%
Ashton Jeanty run for 5 yds to the BOIS 30Similar
Q3 14:06
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+8
66.1%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Austin Bolt for 8 yds to the BOIS 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
63.8%
Sire Gaines run for 4 yds to the BOIS 42Similar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+3
62.5%
Sire Gaines run for 3 yds to the BOIS 45Similar
Q3 12:22
3RD & 3
OWN 45
0
62.1%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:14
4TH & 3
OWN 45
0
63.6%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the ORE 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 17TD
8 plays · 88 yds · 2:5966% → 75%
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+10
66.1%
Jordan James run for 10 yds to the ORE 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+15
65.3%
Boise State Penalty, Targeting (Alexander Teubner) to the ORE 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-10
66.1%
(10:52) No Huddle-Shotgun James,Jordan rush left for 6 yards gain to the ORE45 (Washington,Zion) PENALTY ORE Holding (Harper II,Marcus) 10 yards from ORE39 to ORE29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 20
OWN 29
+10
64.3%
Jordan James run for 10 yds to the ORE 39Similar
Q3 9:51
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+2
64.9%
Noah Whittington run for 2 yds to the ORE 41Similar
Q3 9:09
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+59
75.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 59 yds for a TD (Atticus Sappington PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0028% → 26%
Q3 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
71.6%
Ashton Jeanty run for 2 yds to the BOIS 28Similar
Q3 8:06
2ND & 12
OWN 28
0
72.2%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:06
3RD & 12
OWN 28
0
73.1%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:06
4TH & 12
OWN 28
0
74.3%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 68 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ORE 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:5174% → 70%
Q3 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+10
74.0%
Jordan James run for 10 yds to the ORE 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-7
73.9%
(07:36) Shotgun James,Jordan rush right for 14 yards gain to the ORE28, out of bounds at ORE28 PENALTY ORE Holding (Laloulu,Iapani) 7 yards from ORE14 to ORE07. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:58
1ST & 17
OWN 7
+1
73.4%
Noah Whittington run for 1 yd to the ORE 8Similar
Q3 6:24
2ND & 16
OWN 8
+3
72.9%
Noah Whittington run for 3 yds to the ORE 11Similar
Q3 5:41
3RD & 13
OWN 11
+2
71.2%
Jayden Limar run for 2 yds to the ORE 13Similar
Q3 5:05
4TH & 11
OWN 13
0
70.2%
Ross James punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BOIS 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 20PUNT RETURN TD
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:0032% → 15%
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
67.6%
Ashton Jeanty run for no gain to the BOIS 38Similar
Q3 4:24
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
67.3%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:17
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
68.8%
Boise State Penalty, Illegal Formation (Ty Benefield) declinedSimilar
Q3 3:57
4TH & 10
OWN 38
+85
84.6%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 47 yds , Tez Johnson returns for 85 yds for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 21MISSED FG
11 plays · 28 yds · 3:3017% → 16%
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
82.9%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:39
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+6
83.2%
Sire Gaines run for 6 yds to the BOIS 41Similar
Q3 2:56
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+8
81.7%
Ashton Jeanty run for 8 yds to the BOIS 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
80.9%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:25
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+3
81.6%
Sire Gaines run for 3 yds to the ORE 48Similar
Q3 1:43
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+11
82.1%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Latrell Caples for 11 yds to the ORE 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
81.4%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Latrell Caples for no gain to the ORE 37Similar
Q3 0:48
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
81.3%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:27
3RD & 10
OPP 37
0
82.3%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:22
4TH & 10
OPP 37
+54
84.0%
Jonah Dalmas 54 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 22FUMBLE
5 plays · 33 yds · 1:4189% → 90%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
89.2%
Noah Whittington run for 3 yds to the ORE 40Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+8
89.6%
Noah Whittington run for 8 yds to the ORE 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
89.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 8 yds to the BOIS 44Similar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+9
90.0%
Dillon Gabriel run for 9 yds to the BOIS 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
90.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Patrick Herbert for 5 yds Patrick Herbert fumbled, recovered by BOIS Marco NotarainniSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 23TD
2 plays · 70 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+70
63.2%
Ashton Jeanty run for 70 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 24FUMBLE
3 plays · 10 yds · 0:3767% → 68%
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+9
67.1%
Jordan James run for 9 yds to the ORE 21Similar
Q4 12:16
2ND & 1
OWN 21
+1
67.6%
Dillon Gabriel run for 1 yd to the ORE 22 Dillon Gabriel fumbled, recovered by BOIS Ty BenefieldSimilar
Q4 12:16
2ND & 1
OWN 21
+1
67.6%
Dillon Gabriel run for 1 yd to the ORE 22 Dillon Gabriel fumbled, recovered by BOIS Ty BenefieldSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 25TD
4 plays · 22 yds · 1:4344% → 75%
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
55.9%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Cameron Camper for 5 yds to the ORE 17Similar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+6
55.3%
Ashton Jeanty run for 6 yds to the ORE 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
54.6%
Ashton Jeanty run for 3 yds to the ORE 8Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+8
25.3%
Ashton Jeanty run for 8 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 26PUNT
10 plays · 8 yds · 2:5832% → 32%
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
68.1%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
68.2%
Ashton Jeanty run for 3 yds to the BOIS 28Similar
Q4 8:58
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+9
68.9%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Cameron Camper for 9 yds to the BOIS 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
65.9%
PENALTY BSU False Start (Holmes,Zach) 5 yards from BSU37 to BSU32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:24
1ST & 15
OWN 32
0
67.1%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 15
OWN 32
+2
67.5%
Ashton Jeanty run for 2 yds to the BOIS 34Similar
Q4 7:34
3RD & 13
OWN 34
-1
68.6%
Maddux Madsen sacked by Jordan Burch for a loss of 1 yard to the BOIS 33Similar
Q4 6:55
4TH & 14
OWN 33
0
67.9%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the ORE 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 27PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 2:1669% → 65%
Q4 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
69.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Evan Stewart for 6 yds to the ORE 30Similar
Q4 6:21
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+10
70.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 10 yds to the ORE 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
71.6%
(06:00) No Huddle-Shotgun James,Jordan rush right for 0 yards to the ORE40 (Benefield,Ty; Oladipo,Seyi) PENALTY ORE Illegal Shift (Laloulu,Iapani) 5 yards from ORE40 to ORE35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:59
1ST & 15
OWN 35
+2
68.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tez Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the ORE 34 to for 2 yds to the ORE 34Similar
Q4 4:51
2ND & 16
OWN 34
0
67.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:43
3RD & 16
OWN 34
0
65.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:33
4TH & 16
OWN 34
+4
64.5%
Ross James punt for 48 yds , Latrell Caples returns for 4 yds to the BOIS 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4936% → 33%
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
63.7%
Ashton Jeanty run for 4 yds to the BOIS 26Similar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 6
OWN 26
0
63.4%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:44
3RD & 6
OWN 26
0
65.6%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:36
4TH & 6
OWN 26
0
67.4%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the ORE 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 29FG
17 plays · 61 yds · 3:2569% → 88%
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+14
69.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Kenyon Sadiq for 14 yds to the ORE 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
74.2%
Jordan James run for 2 yds to the ORE 48Similar
Q4 2:35
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+7
74.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 7 yds to the BOIS 45Similar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+2
76.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 2 yds to the BOIS 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
81.1%
(01:34) Shotgun Gabriel,Dillon pass incomplete deep left to Holden,Traeshon thrown to BSU00 PENALTY BSU Pass Interference (Earby,Jeremiah) 15 yards from BSU43 to BSU28, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
82.1%
Jordan James run for 6 yds to the BOIS 22Similar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+3
82.0%
Jordan James run for 3 yds to the BOIS 19Similar
Q4 0:41
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+11
82.1%
Jordan James run for 11 yds to the BOIS 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
83.8%
Jordan James run for 1 yd to the BOIS 7Similar
Q4 0:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
83.1%
Jordan James run for 2 yds to the BOIS 5Similar
Q4 0:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
84.4%
Dillon Gabriel run for 2 yds to the BOIS 7Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
88.2%
Atticus Sappington 25 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:59
Jayden Limar 0 Yd Kickoff Return (Atticus Sappington Kick)
+34.7
TD · Q4 10:15
Ashton Jeanty run for 8 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)
-29.3
TD · Q4 13:09
Ashton Jeanty run for 70 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)
-27.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com