Boise State

Profile vs. FBS, 2016

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2691st
  Defense+0.0957th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense48.9%93rd
  Defense42.6%59th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2676th
  Defense+1.1280th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1468th
  Defense+0.0654th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.4194th
  Defense+0.1357th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense51.6%83rd
  Defense47.9%51st
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense41.8%95th
  Defense31.8%69th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.0460th
  Defense2.9552nd
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense16.6%83rd
  Defense16.5%19th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense13.6%83rd
  Defense14.8%24th

Percentiles among the 128 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2016

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Boise State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   UL
2. W
   WSU
3. W
   ORST
4. W
   USU
5. W
   UNM
6. W
   CSU
7. W
   BYU
8. L
   WYO
9. W
   SJSU
10. W
    HAW
11. W
    UNLV
12. L
    AF
13. L
    BAY

Bars above the line: better than expected for Boise State.

Players, 2016

1. Brett RypienQB370 plays · +0.235 pts/play · 41st of 218 QBs
   1.63WAR1.03 to 2.22
2. Jeremy McNicholsRB288 plays · +0.133 pts/play · 16th of 347 RBs
   0.72WAR0.42 to 1.05
3. Cedrick WilsonWR78 plays · +0.193 pts/play · 36th of 417 WRs
   0.28WAR0.17 to 0.39
4. Thomas SperbeckWR115 plays · +0.123 pts/play · 40th of 417 WRs
   0.26WAR0.12 to 0.41
5. Sean WaleP37 plays · +0.198 pts/play · 45th of 82 punters
   0.14WAR0.10 to 0.18
6. Tyler RausaPK10 plays · +0.356 pts/play · 93rd of 116 kickers
   0.07WAR0.03 to 0.10
7. Chaz AndersonWR44 plays · +0.072 pts/play · 317th of 417 WRs
   0.06WAR0.00 to 0.11
8. Alec DhaenensTE14 plays · +0.033 pts/play · 81st of 195 TEs
   0.01WAR−0.01 to 0.03

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Boise State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2016

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  54954957th of 128Roster talent: 549, 57th of 128 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  16516563rd of 128Recruiting: 165, 63rd of 128 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  86%86%28th of 128Returning production: 86%, 28th of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +11.5+11.529th of 128SP+ rating: +11.5, 29th of 128 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 128 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2016

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Boise State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 0 clear-cut ones account for 0.00 of the 0.03 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs WSUQ2 6:30 4th & 2 at BOIS 30, up 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
2. vs USUQ3 2:36 4th & 2 at BOIS 44, up 11Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts
3. at ULQ1 5:06 4th & 1 at BOIS 26, up 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts
4. vs USUQ4 1:37 4th & 20 at USU 34, up 11Punted; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.4 pts
5. vs SJSUQ1 0:01 4th & 12 at BOIS 37, up 1Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.2 pts
6. at BAYQ4 14:50 4th & 10 at BAY 35, down 18Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.2 pts
7. vs CSUQ4 0:21 4th & 1 at CSU 27, up 5Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.2 pts
8. vs SJSUQ2 5:19 4th & 4 at SJSU 17, up 1Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2016

95th of 128 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Boise State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   UL
2. W

   WSU
3. W

   ORST
4. W

   USU
5. W

   UNM
6. W

   CSU
7. W

   BYU
8. L

   WYO
9. W

   SJSU
10. W

    HAW
11. W

    UNLV
12. L

    AF
13. L

    BAY

What moved it, 2016

Every game starts at Boise State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+0.21
• Possession & field position+0.01
• Clock+0.05
• Timeouts−0.04
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−1.71

Game by game

• ULW 45-10 at UL89% → 100%Before kickoff +39 · On the field +11: Scoreboard +16
• WSUW 31-28 vs WSU81% → 87%Before kickoff +31 · On the field +6: Scoreboard +17, Timeouts +1
• ORSTW 38-24 at ORST82% → 100%Before kickoff +32 · On the field +18: Scoreboard +23, Clock +1
• USUW 21-10 vs USU91% → 97%Before kickoff +41 · On the field +6: Scoreboard +16, Timeouts +1
• UNMW 49-21 at UNM86% → 100%Before kickoff +36 · On the field +14: Scoreboard +19, Clock +1
• CSUW 28-23 vs CSU95% → 91%Before kickoff +45 · On the field −4: Scoreboard +10, Timeouts +1
• BYUW 28-27 vs BYU75% → 76%Before kickoff +25 · On the field +1: Scoreboard +10, Possession & field position +1
• WYOL 28-30 at WYO82% → 9%Before kickoff +32 · On the field −73: Scoreboard −31, Possession & field position −2
• SJSUW 45-31 vs SJSU96% → 98%Before kickoff +46 · On the field +3: Scoreboard +9
• HAWW 52-16 at HAW86% → 100%Before kickoff +36 · On the field +14: Scoreboard +20
• UNLVW 42-25 vs UNLV96% → 99%Before kickoff +46 · On the field +3: Scoreboard +9
• AFL 20-27 at AF76% → 4%Before kickoff +26 · On the field −72: Scoreboard −45, Timeouts −3
• BAYL 12-31 at BAY75% → 1%Before kickoff +25 · On the field −74: Scoreboard −53, Timeouts −2

Points of win probability, from Boise State's side.

Closest call

BOIS 59-52 CSU (2017) - Boise State dropped to a 2.5% win probability before pulling it out.