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BOIS

Boise State 12 at Baylor 31

BAY
2016 · Motel 6 Cactus Bowl · Dec 27, 2016 · Chase Field
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Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadBOIS aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreBOIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:18 · Brett Rypien run for 2 yds to the Bayl 22 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 100Home team on offense+11.4Pregame prior−14.2Score differential+4.3Garbage-time factor+2.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.8Blowout margin+0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:53: Zach Smith pass complete to KD Cannon for 30 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK) — BAY win probability +3.1 pts (now 33%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:14: Zach Smith pass complete to KD Cannon for 68 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK) — BAY win probability +6.1 pts (now 43%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:19: JaMycal Hasty run for 5 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK) — BAY win probability +11.1 pts (now 66%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 0:11: Tyler Rausa 26 yd FG GOOD — BOIS win probability +6.0 pts (now 28%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 3:18: Chris Callahan 34 Yd Field Goal — BAY win probability +4.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 4 of 5BOIS made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 11:58BOIS 4th & 10 at BOIS 2, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.3%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:07BAY 4th & 6 at BOIS 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    29.3%−0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    29.2%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:50BOIS 4th & 4 at BAY 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    62.8%−0.4
    54% to make
    Punt
    62.3%−0.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:40BOIS 4th & 8 at BAY 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.9%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.3%
    90% to make
    Punt
    56.2%−4.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:18BOIS 4th & 1 at BAY 24, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    30.7%−1.9
    68% to make
    Punt
    22.9%−9.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:11BOIS 4th & 8 at BAY 9, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.5%−2.0
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.5%
    89% to make
    Punt
    22.0%−7.5
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:13BOIS 4th & 5 at BAY 5, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.9%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    26.0%
    92% to make
    Punt
    16.2%−9.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:18BAY 4th & 11 at BOIS 17, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.4%−1.7
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.1%
    80% to make
    Punt
    79.7%−7.4
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:50BOIS 4th & 10 at BAY 35, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.8%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    8.0%
    45% to make
    Punt
    7.1%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q4 8:32BOIS 4th & 14 at BOIS 34, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:53BAY 4th & 8 at BAY 25, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:59BOIS 4th & 16 at BOIS 13, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:14BAY 4th & 5 at BAY 46, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:12BOIS 4th & 2 at BOIS 28, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:13BAY 4th & 13 at BOIS 26, up 25
    Close callWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.6%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%
    64% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BAY made the numbers' call on 4 of 4BOIS made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 5:53BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:14BAY Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:19BAY Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 10:03BAY Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:20BOIS Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    1.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    1.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BAYDrive 1INT
9 plays · 52 yds · 1:2425% → 26%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
25.2%
Terence Williams run for 4 yds to the Bayl 27Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+7
25.3%
Terence Williams run for 7 yds to the Bayl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+30
25.4%
Zach Smith pass complete to Chris Platt for 30 yds to the BoiSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
25.6%
Terence Williams run for no gain to the BoiSt 36Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+11
25.9%
Zach Smith pass complete to KD Cannon for 11 yds to the BoiSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
26.0%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Ishmael ZamoraSimilar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
26.0%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q1 13:21
3RD & 10
OPP 25
0
26.0%
Zach Smith pass intercepted Chanceller James return for no gain to the BoiSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:1774% → 73%
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
25.9%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Cedrick WilsonSimilar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+5
26.0%
BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Offside (Clay Johnston) to the BoiSt 7Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 5
OWN 7
+1
26.1%
Jeremy McNichols run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 8Similar
Q1 12:40
3RD & 4
OWN 8
-6
26.3%
Jeremy McNichols run for a loss of 6 yards to the BoiSt 2Similar
Q1 11:58
4TH & 10
OWN 2
0
26.9%
Sean Wale punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BoiSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 3DOWNS
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:3827% → 28%
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
27.0%
Zach Smith pass complete to KD Cannon for 5 yds to the BoiSt 33Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 5
OPP 33
0
27.2%
Terence Williams run for no gain to the BoiSt 33Similar
Q1 10:55
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+4
27.4%
Terence Williams run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 29Similar
Q1 10:37
4TH & 1
OPP 29
-5
27.4%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (Sam Tecklenburg) to the BoiSt 34Similar
Q1 10:07
4TH & 6
OPP 34
0
27.6%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 4INT
7 plays · 37 yds · 1:4673% → 73%
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
27.2%
Jeremy McNichols run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 35Similar
Q1 9:31
2ND & 9
OWN 35
0
27.5%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Thomas SperbeckSimilar
Q1 9:20
3RD & 9
OWN 35
+23
27.8%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 23 yds to the Bayl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
27.3%
Jeremy McNichols run for 4 yds to the Bayl 38Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 6
OPP 38
0
27.3%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete, broken up by Greg RobertsSimilar
Q1 8:44
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+9
27.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 9 yds to the Bayl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+14
27.3%
Brett Rypien pass intercepted Travon Blanchard return for 14 yds to the Bayl 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 5TD
8 plays · 81 yds · 2:1428% → 33%
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+49
28.3%
Zach Smith pass complete to KD Cannon for 49 yds to the BoiSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
29.3%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Ishmael ZamoraSimilar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+17
29.2%
Zach Smith pass complete to Chris Platt for 17 yds to the BoiSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
29.6%
Zach Smith pass incomplete, broken up by Blake WhitlockSimilar
Q1 7:07
2ND & 10
OPP 15
-10
29.7%
Smith, Zach pass left screen complete to Williams, Terence for 2 yards to the BOISEST13 (caught at the BOISEST16), PENALTY BAYLOR holding (Blackmar, Blake) 10 yards to the BOISEST25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 20
OPP 25
0
29.6%
Zach Smith run for no gain to the BoiSt 25Similar
Q1 6:18
3RD & 20
OPP 25
-5
29.4%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (Kyle Fuller) to the BoiSt 30Similar
Q1 5:53
3RD & 25
OPP 30
+30
32.5%
Zach Smith pass complete to KD Cannon for 30 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 6FG
18 plays · 57 yds · 7:0568% → 66%
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
32.1%
Alexander Mattison run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+4
32.0%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 4 yds to the BoiSt 43Similar
Q1 4:45
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+5
32.5%
Jeremy McNichols run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
32.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 5 yds to the Bayl 47Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+3
32.8%
Alexander Mattison run for 3 yds to the Bayl 44Similar
Q1 3:20
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+7
33.2%
Jeremy McNichols run for 7 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
33.4%
Jeremy McNichols run for 3 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+3
32.8%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for 3 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q1 1:56
3RD & 4
OPP 31
0
33.8%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Thomas SperbeckSimilar
Q1 1:50
4TH & 4
OPP 31
+7
34.7%
Brett Rypien run for 7 yds to the Bayl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
33.4%
Jeremy McNichols run for 3 yds to the Bayl 21Similar
Q1 0:45
2ND & 7
OPP 21
0
33.9%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for no gain to the Bayl 21Similar
Q1 0:10
3RD & 7
OPP 21
+12
35.1%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jake Roh for 12 yds to the Bayl 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-7
34.5%
Jeremy McNichols run for a loss of 7 yards to the Bayl 16Similar
Q2 14:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 16
0
35.5%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Chaz AndersonSimilar
Q2 14:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 16
+8
36.8%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jake Roh for 8 yds to the Bayl 8Similar
Q2 13:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+24
34.0%
Tyler Rausa 24 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 7TD
7 plays · 81 yds · 1:0635% → 43%
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
35.2%
Zach Smith pass complete to Chris Platt for 5 yds to the Bayl 24Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+7
35.5%
Zach Smith pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for 7 yds to the Bayl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
35.8%
Terence Williams run for 6 yds to the Bayl 37Similar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+5
36.7%
Zach Smith pass complete to KD Cannon for 5 yds to the Bayl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-10
37.2%
Smith, Zach pass right deep out incomplete to Stricklin, Pooh thrown to the BOISEST28, PENALTY BAYLOR holding (Porter, Mo) 10 yards to the BAYLOR32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:14
1ST & 20
OWN 32
+68
43.3%
Zach Smith pass complete to KD Cannon for 68 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 8INT
13 plays · 61 yds · 3:2959% → 57%
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-5
41.4%
BOISE ST Penalty, False Start (Will Adams) to the BoiSt 27Similar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 15
OWN 27
+15
42.2%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 15 yds to the BoiSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
41.6%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Alec Dhaenens for 7 yds to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+2
41.6%
Jeremy McNichols run for 2 yds to the Bayl 49Similar
Q2 10:29
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+5
42.4%
Jeremy McNichols run for 5 yds to the Bayl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
42.5%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Cedrick WilsonSimilar
Q2 10:02
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+12
42.9%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 12 yds to the Bayl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
42.0%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Thomas SperbeckSimilar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+1
42.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for 1 yd to the Bayl 31Similar
Q2 9:20
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+24
43.8%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 24 yds to the Bayl 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
43.0%
Brett Rypien pass intercepted Orion Stewart return for 1 yd to the Bayl 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 9TD
17 plays · 99 yds · 4:1148% → 66%
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+9
48.2%
Zach Smith pass complete to Pooh Stricklin for 9 yds to the Bayl 10Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 1
OWN 10
+5
48.9%
Terence Williams run for 5 yds to the Bayl 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
48.3%
Zach Smith pass complete to KD Cannon for 3 yds to the Bayl 18Similar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+3
48.8%
Zach Smith pass complete to Zach Smith for 3 yds to the Bayl 21Similar
Q2 7:30
3RD & 4
OWN 21
0
49.1%
Zach Smith pass incomplete BAYLOR Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Patrick Lawrence) declinedSimilar
Q2 7:20
4TH & 4
OWN 21
+5
48.4%
Galitz, Drew punt 39 yards to the BOISEST40, fair catch by Wilson, Cedrick, PENALTY BOISEST running into kicker (Richardson, A.J.) 5 yards to the BAYLOR26, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BAYLOR.Similar
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
50.5%
Terence Williams run for 1 yd to the Bayl 27Similar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+15
50.7%
Zach Smith pass complete to Chris Platt for 15 yds to the Bayl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
52.5%
Zach Smith pass complete to Jared Atkinson for 10 yds to the BoiSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
53.2%
Terence Williams run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 43Similar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+4
53.7%
Terence Williams run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q2 5:40
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+4
53.0%
Terence Williams run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
54.5%
Zach Smith pass complete to Chris Platt for 7 yds to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+13
54.9%
JaMycal Hasty run for 13 yds to the BoiSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+10
55.3%
JaMycal Hasty run for 10 yds to the BoiSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
66.4%
JaMycal Hasty run for 5 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 10FG
18 plays · 56 yds · 3:5938% → 28%
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
62.5%
Jeremy McNichols run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 38Similar
Q2 3:40
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+6
63.3%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Chaz Anderson for 6 yds to the BoiSt 44Similar
Q2 3:20
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+3
63.2%
Brett Rypien run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
63.8%
Jeremy McNichols run for 9 yds to the Bayl 44Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+11
61.8%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Chaz Anderson for 11 yds to the Bayl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
61.8%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 3 yds to the Bayl 30Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+2
62.0%
Jeremy McNichols run for 2 yds to the Bayl 28Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+4
62.5%
Jeremy McNichols run for 4 yds to the Bayl 24Similar
Q2 1:18
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+2
64.3%
Brett Rypien run for 2 yds to the Bayl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
64.0%
Alexander Mattison run for 6 yds to the Bayl 16Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+5
65.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 5 yds to the Bayl 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
65.4%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Cedrick WilsonSimilar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
65.5%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Cedrick WilsonSimilar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 10
OPP 11
+2
67.6%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for 2 yds to the Bayl 9Similar
Q2 0:11
4TH & 8
OPP 9
+26
71.7%
Tyler Rausa 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · 11 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
73.2%
Zach Smith pass complete to KD Cannon for 11 yds to the Bayl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 12DOWNS
14 plays · 74 yds · 5:2733% → 28%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
67.3%
Jeremy McNichols run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 26Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+9
66.7%
Jeremy McNichols run for 9 yds to the BoiSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
67.1%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Cedrick WilsonSimilar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+12
67.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 12 yds to the BoiSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
66.9%
Alexander Mattison run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:44
2ND & 7
50
+13
66.9%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for 13 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+10
68.1%
Thomas Sperbeck run for 10 yds to the Bayl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
66.9%
Alexander Mattison run for 2 yds to the Bayl 25Similar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+16
67.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jake Roh for 16 yds to the Bayl 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
68.1%
Alexander Mattison run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 10Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
68.6%
Cedrick Wilson run for 6 yds to the Bayl 4Similar
Q3 9:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
70.6%
Jeremy McNichols run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 5Similar
Q3 9:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
0
72.2%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Cedrick Wilson, broken up by Ryan ReidSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 13FG
24 plays · 78 yds · 5:4278% → 90%
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
77.8%
Zach Smith pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for no gain to the Bayl 5Similar
Q3 8:57
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+12
77.7%
Zach Smith pass complete to KD Cannon for 12 yds to the Bayl 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
78.4%
Zach Smith pass complete to KD Cannon for 8 yds to the Bayl 25Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+1
78.7%
Jared Atkinson run for 1 yd to the Bayl 26Similar
Q3 8:10
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+2
78.4%
Zach Smith pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for 2 yds to the Bayl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
79.5%
Zach Smith run for 1 yd to the Bayl 29Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+8
79.7%
Terence Williams run for 8 yds to the Bayl 37Similar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+5
80.3%
Terence Williams run for 5 yds to the Bayl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
81.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to KD Cannon for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 2
50
+2
82.1%
Terence Williams run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
82.5%
Terence Williams run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 46Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+2
83.0%
Zach Smith run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 44Similar
Q3 5:25
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+5
85.4%
BOISE ST Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (5 Yards) to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q3 5:05
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+3
85.7%
Zach Smith run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-15
86.1%
BAYLOR Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Ishmael Wilson) to the Bayl 49Similar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 25
OWN 49
+22
86.3%
Zach Smith pass complete to Pooh Stricklin for 22 yds to the BoiSt 29Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+8
86.9%
Zach Smith pass complete to Chris Platt for 8 yds to the BoiSt 21Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 2
OPP 21
0
87.1%
Zach Smith pass complete to KD Cannon for no gain to the BoiSt 21Similar
Q3 4:05
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+5
87.5%
Terence Williams run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-1
88.0%
Lynx Hawthorne run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 17Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 11
OPP 17
0
88.2%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Sam TecklenburgSimilar
Q3 3:24
3RD & 11
OPP 17
0
88.0%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to KD Cannon, broken up by Raymond FordSimilar
Q3 3:19
4TH & 11
OWN 35
-15
86.2%
BAYLOR Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Dom Desouza) to the Bayl 20Similar
Q3 3:18
4TH & 11
OPP 17
+34
90.4%
Chris Callahan 34 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 14FUMBLE
12 plays · 39 yds · 4:1911% → 7%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
88.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 5 yds to the BoiSt 36Similar
Q3 2:34
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+17
89.0%
Alexander Mattison run for 2 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, Personal Foul (Ryan Reid) to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
89.0%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Thomas SperbeckSimilar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+12
89.3%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jake Roh for 12 yds to the Bayl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
88.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Chase Blakley for 3 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 7
OPP 32
-8
88.3%
Brett Rypien sacked by K.J. Smith for a loss of 8 yards to the Bayl 40Similar
Q3 0:20
3RD & 15
OPP 40
+5
91.8%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for 5 yds to the Bayl 35Similar
Q4 14:50
4TH & 10
OPP 35
+13
91.6%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Chaz Anderson for 13 yds to the Bayl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
90.7%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Thomas SperbeckSimilar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 10
OPP 22
-3
91.3%
Jeremy McNichols run for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 25Similar
Q4 13:41
3RD & 13
OPP 25
+15
92.6%
Brett Rypien run for 11 yds to the Bayl 29 Brett Rypien fumbled, recovered by Bayl Orion Stewart , return for 15 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 15TD
12 plays · 71 yds · 3:3295% → 99%
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
95.0%
Terence Williams run for 4 yds to the Bayl 33Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+8
95.1%
Terence Williams run for 8 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
95.4%
Zach Smith run for 3 yds to the Bayl 44Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+6
95.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to KD Cannon for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 12:35
3RD & 1
50
+2
95.7%
Terence Williams run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
95.9%
Terence Williams run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 43Similar
Q4 11:59
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+14
96.0%
Terence Williams run for 14 yds to the BoiSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
96.1%
Terence Williams run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+1
96.1%
JaMycal Hasty run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 27Similar
Q4 10:48
3RD & 8
OPP 27
+10
96.2%
Zach Smith pass complete to KD Cannon for 10 yds to the BoiSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
96.3%
JaMycal Hasty run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 14Similar
Q4 10:03
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+14
99.4%
Ishmael Zamora 14 Yd pass from Zach Smith (Chris Callahan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:191% → 1%
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.2%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Thomas SperbeckSimilar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-9
99.2%
Brett Rypien sacked by Tyrone Hunt for a loss of 9 yards to the BoiSt 29Similar
Q4 9:15
3RD & 19
OWN 29
+5
99.0%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Alexander Mattison for 5 yds to the BoiSt 34Similar
Q4 8:32
4TH & 14
OWN 34
0
99.2%
Sean Wale punt for 43 yds, downed at the Bayl 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:27100% → 100%
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
99.5%
Terence Williams pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for no gain to the Bayl 23Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+2
99.5%
Terence Williams run for 2 yds to the Bayl 25Similar
Q4 7:30
3RD & 8
OWN 25
0
99.5%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Ishmael Zamora, broken up by Tyler HortonSimilar
Q4 6:53
4TH & 8
OWN 25
+6
99.6%
Drew Galitz punt for 62 yds , Cedrick Wilson returns for 6 yds to the BoiSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:461% → 1%
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
99.5%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Cedrick WilsonSimilar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 10
OWN 19
-6
99.6%
Brett Rypien sacked by Tyrone Hunt for a loss of 6 yards to the BoiSt 13Similar
Q4 6:10
3RD & 16
OWN 13
0
99.4%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Cedrick WilsonSimilar
Q4 5:59
4TH & 16
OWN 13
+14
99.4%
Sean Wale punt for 45 yds , Tony Nicholson returns for 14 yds to the Bayl 27 BAYLOR Penalty, Tripping (Tyler Jaynes) to the Bayl 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 19FUMBLE
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:31100% → 100%
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
99.7%
Terence Williams run for 3 yds to the Bayl 44Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+2
99.7%
Terence Williams run for 2 yds to the Bayl 46Similar
Q4 4:24
3RD & 5
OWN 46
0
99.7%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Ishmael Zamora, broken up by Tyler HortonSimilar
Q4 4:14
4TH & 5
OWN 46
0
99.7%
Drew Galitz punt for 34 yds , Cedrick Wilson returns for no gain to the BoiSt 20 Cedrick Wilson fumbled, recovered by BoiSt Cedrick WilsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 20DOWNS
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:480% → 0%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
99.7%
Alexander Mattison run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 22Similar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+2
99.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jake Roh for 2 yds to the BoiSt 24Similar
Q4 3:35
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+4
99.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jake Roh for 4 yds to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q4 3:12
4TH & 2
OWN 28
-5
99.7%
Brett Rypien sacked by Orion Stewart for a loss of 5 yards to the BoiSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 21DOWNS
6 plays · -7 yds · 0:17100% → 100%
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-2
99.8%
JaMycal Hasty run for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 25Similar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 12
OPP 25
+2
99.8%
JaMycal Hasty run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 23Similar
Q4 2:17
3RD & 10
OPP 23
-3
99.9%
Zach Smith sacked by David Moa for a loss of 3 yards to the BoiSt 26Similar
Q4 2:13
4TH & 13
OPP 26
-4
99.8%
Zach Smith sacked by Sam McCaskill for a loss of 4 yards to the BoiSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 22TD
5 plays · 70 yds · 0:400% → 2%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
99.9%
Brett Rypien run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 35Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+14
99.9%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 14 yds to the BoiSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
99.9%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Chaz AndersonSimilar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+23
99.9%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 23 yds to the Bayl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
97.9%
Cedrick Wilson 28 Yd pass from Brett Rypien (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 23END OF GAME
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:4599% → 100%
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
99.4%
Wyatt Schrepfer run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 35Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+1
99.5%
Wyatt Schrepfer run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:19
JaMycal Hasty run for 5 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)
+11.1
TD · Q2 12:14
Zach Smith pass complete to KD Cannon for 68 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)
+6.1
FG · Q2 0:11
Tyler Rausa 26 yd FG GOOD
-6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com