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CSU

Colorado State 23 at Boise State 28

BOIS
2016 · Week 7 · Oct 15, 2016 · Albertsons Stadium
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Win probability · BOIS
modelBOIS aheadCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playBOIS scoreCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:15 · Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 5 yds to the ColSt 45 for a 1ST down lat. to Robert Ruiz for 8 yds to the ColSt 45 for a 1ST down lat. to Dalyn Dawkins for no gain to the ColSt 45 for a 1ST down lat. to Demontrie Taylor for 5 yds to the ColSt 45 for a 1ST down lat. to Team for no gain to the ColSt 27 for a 1ST down COLORADO ST Penalty, illegal forward pass (Demontrie Taylor) to the ColSt 45 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+45.0+22.50−22.5−45.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:27: Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 12 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK) — BOIS win probability +7.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:35: Jeremy McNichols run for 5 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK) — BOIS win probability +5.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:00: Jeremy McNichols run for 80 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK) — BOIS win probability +4.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 4:48: Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 53 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK) — CSU win probability +5.2 pts (now 7%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:35: Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalyn Dawkins for 11 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — CSU win probability +16.5 pts (now 24%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BOIS made the numbers' call on 5 of 7CSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00BOIS 4th & 13 at CSU 37, tied
    Close callWent for it · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.2%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    94.3%−<0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    94.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:24CSU 4th & 10 at BOIS 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.7%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.8%
    74% to make
    Punt
    7.3%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:26BOIS 4th & 14 at BOIS 21, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.5%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:51CSU 4th & 7 at BOIS 45, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.4%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    8.3%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    8.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:20BOIS 4th & 6 at BOIS 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.2%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00CSU 4th & 2 at CSU 47, up 3
    Close callPunted · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.0%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:21BOIS 4th & 8 at BOIS 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.0%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:17CSU 4th & 2 at midfield, up 3
    Close callPunted · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.7%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:18BOIS 4th & 9 at BOIS 48, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.6%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.8%
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:07CSU 4th & 10 at CSU 40, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.7%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00CSU 4th & 9 at CSU 30, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.4%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:35CSU 4th & 7 at CSU 40, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.9%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:00CSU 4th & 4 at CSU 27, down 18
    Close callPunted · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:03BOIS 4th & 1 at CSU 36, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    97.0%−0.9
    42% to make
    Punt
    96.9%−1.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:53CSU 4th & 2 at CSU 33, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:53CSU 4th & 1 at BOIS 45, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−0.2
    25% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−0.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:53CSU 4th & 1 at BOIS 17, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%−0.1
    80% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:21BOIS 4th & 1 at CSU 27, up 5
    Close callWent for it · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.0%−0.2
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    90.2%
    62% to make
    Punt
    87.9%−2.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BOIS made the numbers' call on 4 of 4CSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q2 0:27BOIS Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 7:35BOIS Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 4:00BOIS Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 10:53BOIS Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:00CSU Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.4%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.4%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:48CSU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.2%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.3%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:35CSU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    13.1%−1.0
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    14.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BOISDrive 1DOWNS
7 plays · 28 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
94.9%
Jeremy McNichols run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+27
94.9%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 27 yds to the ColSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-11
94.9%
Chaz Anderson run for a loss of 11 yards to the ColSt 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 21
OPP 45
+2
94.9%
Jeremy McNichols run for 2 yds to the ColSt 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 19
OPP 43
+6
94.9%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for 6 yds to the ColSt 37Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 13
OPP 37
0
94.9%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Thomas SperbeckSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 2FG
13 plays · 42 yds · 4:466% → 7%
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
94.3%
Nick Stevens run for 12 yds to the ColSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
94.3%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 48Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+3
94.3%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 45Similar
Q1 12:10
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+13
94.3%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 13 yds to the BoiSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
94.2%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 9 yds to the BoiSt 23Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+2
94.2%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
94.2%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 14Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 3
OPP 14
0
94.2%
Dalyn Dawkins run for no gain to the BoiSt 14Similar
Q1 8:04
3RD & 3
OPP 14
-5
93.2%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (Nick Callender) to the BoiSt 19Similar
Q1 8:04
3RD & 8
OPP 19
-5
93.2%
COLORADO ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the BoiSt 24Similar
Q1 8:04
3RD & 13
OPP 24
+3
93.3%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalyn Dawkins for 3 yds to the BoiSt 21Similar
Q1 7:24
4TH & 10
OPP 21
+39
93.0%
Wyatt Bryan 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · -4 yds · 0:5893% → 92%
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
93.0%
Jeremy McNichols run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 27Similar
Q1 7:24
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
93.0%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Chaz Anderson for 4 yds to the BoiSt 31Similar
Q1 6:26
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-5
92.5%
RYPIEN, Brett pass complete to McNICHOLS, J. for 4 yards to the BSU35 (SIMMONS, Tyree), PENALTY BSU false start 5 yards to the BSU26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:26
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-5
92.4%
BOISE ST Penalty, false start (Archie Lewis) to the BoiSt 21Similar
Q1 6:26
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
92.4%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Chaz AndersonSimilar
Q1 6:26
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
92.3%
Sean Wale punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Robert Ruiz at the ColSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
92.4%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 3 yds to the ColSt 31Similar
Q1 5:51
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+10
92.4%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Robert Ruiz for 10 yds to the ColSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
92.2%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 7 yds to the ColSt 48Similar
Q1 5:51
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+4
92.2%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
92.2%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
Q1 5:51
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+3
92.2%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 45Similar
Q1 5:51
3RD & 7
OPP 45
0
92.2%
Nick Stevens pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:51
4TH & 7
OPP 45
0
92.4%
Hayden Hunt punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
91.2%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Thomas SperbeckSimilar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+18
91.2%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 18 yds to the BoiSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
91.3%
Jeremy McNichols run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 23Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+2
91.3%
Jeremy McNichols run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 25Similar
Q1 3:20
3RD & 6
OWN 25
0
91.1%
Brett Rypien pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:20
4TH & 6
OWN 25
0
91.0%
Sean Wale punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Robert Ruiz at the ColSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:439% → 10%
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
90.7%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Nolan Peralta for 6 yds to the ColSt 32Similar
Q1 1:43
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+7
90.5%
Izzy Matthews run for 7 yds to the ColSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
90.4%
Izzy Matthews run for 4 yds to the ColSt 43Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+4
89.4%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Detrich Clark for 4 yds to the ColSt 47Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 47
0
89.5%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 47
0
89.8%
Hayden Hunt punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BoiSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 1:5189% → 89%
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
89.4%
Jeremy McNichols run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 12Similar
Q2 14:12
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+8
89.4%
Jeremy McNichols run for 8 yds to the BoiSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
89.5%
Jeremy McNichols run for no gain to the BoiSt 20Similar
Q2 14:12
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
89.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Steven Baggett for 4 yds to the BoiSt 24Similar
Q2 12:21
3RD & 6
OWN 24
-2
88.8%
Brett Rypien sacked by Richard King for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 22Similar
Q2 12:21
4TH & 8
OWN 22
+7
88.6%
Sean Wale punt for 58 yds , Robert Ruiz returns for 7 yds to the ColSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 23 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
88.3%
Izzy Matthews run for 15 yds to the ColSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
87.8%
Izzy Matthews run for 3 yds to the ColSt 45Similar
Q2 11:17
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+5
87.8%
Izzy Matthews run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:17
3RD & 2
50
0
87.7%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Olabisi Johnson, broken up by Raymond FordSimilar
Q2 11:17
4TH & 2
50
0
88.1%
Hayden Hunt punt for 30 yds, downed at the BoiSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q2 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
87.3%
Brett Rypien run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 25Similar
Q2 9:18
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+4
87.5%
Jeremy McNichols run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 29Similar
Q2 9:18
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+7
87.3%
Jeremy McNichols run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
87.7%
Jeremy McNichols run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 42Similar
Q2 9:18
2ND & 4
OWN 42
-4
88.3%
Jeremy McNichols run for a loss of 4 yards to the BoiSt 38Similar
Q2 9:18
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+9
87.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Chaz Anderson for 9 yds to the BoiSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
88.3%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Chaz AndersonSimilar
Q2 9:18
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+1
88.2%
Jeremy McNichols run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 48Similar
Q2 9:18
3RD & 9
OWN 48
0
87.6%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Jabril FrazierSimilar
Q2 9:18
4TH & 9
OWN 48
0
87.3%
Sean Wale punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:0716% → 16%
Q2 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+20
84.5%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 20 yds to the ColSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
83.2%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 1 yd to the ColSt 41Similar
Q2 5:14
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
83.4%
Nick Stevens pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:14
3RD & 9
OWN 41
-1
83.7%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalyn Dawkins for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 40Similar
Q2 4:07
4TH & 10
OWN 40
0
83.8%
Hayden Hunt punt for 35 yds, downed at the BoiSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 11TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:3283% → 89%
Q2 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
83.0%
Jeremy McNichols run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q2 3:18
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
81.3%
Jeremy McNichols run for 8 yds to the BoiSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
81.8%
Jeremy McNichols run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 42Similar
Q2 3:18
2ND & 4
OWN 42
0
82.9%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Thomas SperbeckSimilar
Q2 3:18
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+6
82.2%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for 6 yds to the BoiSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
82.8%
Brett Rypien sacked by Toby McBride for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 46Similar
Q2 3:18
2ND & 12
OWN 46
+4
81.8%
Brett Rypien run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 3:18
3RD & 8
50
+33
82.3%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for 33 yds to the ColSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
83.9%
Jeremy McNichols run for 5 yds to the ColSt 12Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+12
89.2%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 12 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-2
88.8%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:0014% → 13%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
86.1%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 2 yds to the ColSt 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+2
86.0%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 2 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+2
86.3%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 2 yds to the ColSt 35Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 35
-5
86.7%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (Bryan Ohene-Gyeni) to the ColSt 30Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 30
+10
87.2%
Hayden Hunt punt for 59 yds , Akilian Butler returns for 10 yds to the BoiSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 14TD
10 plays · 79 yds · 5:0185% → 92%
Q3 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
85.4%
Jeremy McNichols run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 26Similar
Q3 12:36
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+9
85.5%
Jeremy McNichols run for 9 yds to the BoiSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
85.6%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for 2 yds to the BoiSt 37Similar
Q3 12:36
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+8
85.8%
Jeremy McNichols run for 8 yds to the BoiSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
86.6%
Jeremy McNichols run for no gain to the BoiSt 45Similar
Q3 12:36
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+8
86.1%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Chaz Anderson for 8 yds to the ColSt 47Similar
Q3 12:36
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+3
86.5%
Jeremy McNichols run for 3 yds to the ColSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
87.0%
Jeremy McNichols run for 4 yds to the ColSt 40Similar
Q3 12:36
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+35
86.9%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Chaz Anderson for 35 yds to the ColSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
92.2%
Jeremy McNichols run for 5 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.0%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Olabisi JohnsonSimilar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
91.0%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 9 yds to the ColSt 34Similar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
90.8%
Izzy Matthews run for 3 yds to the ColSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
90.6%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for no gain to the ColSt 37Similar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
90.7%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Nolan PeraltaSimilar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 10
OWN 37
-5
91.3%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (Zack Golditch) to the ColSt 32Similar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 15
OWN 32
+8
91.6%
Nick Stevens run for 8 yds to the ColSt 40Similar
Q3 7:35
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
91.4%
Hayden Hunt punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Akilian Butler at the BoiSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 16TD
3 plays · 83 yds · 0:4692% → 97%
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
91.8%
Jeremy McNichols run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 20Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+80
97.3%
Jeremy McNichols run for 80 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
96.6%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete, broken up by Daniel AueluaSimilar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-5
96.6%
Nick Stevens sacked by Durrant Miles for a loss of 5 yards to the ColSt 16Similar
Q3 4:00
3RD & 15
OWN 16
+11
96.7%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalyn Dawkins for 11 yds to the ColSt 27Similar
Q3 4:00
4TH & 4
OWN 27
+1
96.6%
Hayden Hunt punt for 55 yds , Akilian Butler returns for 1 yd to the BoiSt 28 BOISE ST Penalty, illegal block (DeAndre Pierce) to the BoiSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 18TD
17 plays · 90 yds · 6:3697% → 100%
Q3 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
97.4%
Jeremy McNichols run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 13Similar
Q3 2:29
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+5
97.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 5 yds to the BoiSt 18Similar
Q3 2:29
3RD & 2
OWN 18
+7
97.4%
Jeremy McNichols run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.4%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Sean ModsterSimilar
Q3 2:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
97.4%
Jeremy McNichols run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 30Similar
Q3 2:29
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+9
97.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Chaz Anderson for 9 yds to the BoiSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
98.0%
Jeremy McNichols run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+5
98.0%
Jeremy McNichols run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 48Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+7
98.0%
Jeremy McNichols run for 7 yds to the ColSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-2
98.0%
Jeremy McNichols run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 47Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 47
+1
98.0%
Alexander Mattison run for 1 yd to the ColSt 46Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 46
+10
98.0%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 10 yds to the ColSt 36Similar
Q4 12:03
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+2
98.1%
Jeremy McNichols run for 2 yds to the ColSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+19
98.3%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Alexander Mattison for 19 yds to the ColSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
98.3%
Alexander Mattison run for 4 yds to the ColSt 11Similar
Q4 10:53
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+11
99.8%
Thomas Sperbeck pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 11 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 19TD
18 plays · 75 yds · 5:531% → 2%
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.5%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalyn Dawkins for no gain to the ColSt 25Similar
Q4 10:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.5%
Detrich Clark run for 4 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q4 10:53
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+4
99.5%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Izzy Matthews for 4 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
Q4 10:53
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+2
99.5%
Nick Stevens run for 2 yds to the ColSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.5%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Danny NwosuSimilar
Q4 10:53
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+11
99.5%
Izzy Matthews run for 11 yds to the ColSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
99.5%
Izzy Matthews run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 45Similar
Q4 10:53
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+4
99.5%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 4 yds to the ColSt 49Similar
Q4 10:53
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+6
99.5%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Nolan Peralta for 6 yds to the BoiSt 45Similar
Q4 10:53
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+19
99.5%
Nick Stevens run for 19 yds to the BoiSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
99.4%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
Q4 10:53
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
99.4%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Robert RuizSimilar
Q4 10:53
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+9
99.5%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Elroy Masters Jr. for 9 yds to the BoiSt 17Similar
Q4 10:53
4TH & 1
OPP 17
+3
99.5%
Izzy Matthews run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
99.4%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
Q4 10:53
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+12
99.4%
Nick Stevens run for 12 yds to the BoiSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
97.8%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 20TD
2 plays · 53 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+53
93.2%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 53 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 21TD
7 plays · 54 yds · 1:137% → 24%
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
93.3%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Detrich Clark for 9 yds to the BoiSt 45Similar
Q4 4:48
2ND & 1
OPP 45
0
92.3%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
Q4 4:48
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+3
92.4%
Izzy Matthews run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
92.9%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
Q4 4:48
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+31
92.9%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 31 yds to the BoiSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
76.4%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalyn Dawkins for 11 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 22DOWNS
11 plays · 21 yds · 3:1491% → 96%
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
90.6%
Jeremy McNichols run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:35
2ND & 12
50
+10
90.1%
Brett Rypien run for 10 yds to the ColSt 40Similar
Q4 2:42
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+4
92.7%
Jeremy McNichols run for 4 yds to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
93.1%
Jeremy McNichols run for 7 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q4 2:42
2ND & 3
OPP 29
0
93.6%
Jeremy McNichols run for no gain to the ColSt 29Similar
Q4 1:17
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+2
95.5%
Jeremy McNichols run for 2 yds to the ColSt 27Similar
Q4 0:21
4TH & 1
OPP 27
0
95.9%
Jeremy McNichols run for no gain to the ColSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 23END OF GAME
1 play · 18 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
90.9%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 5 yds to the ColSt 45 for a 1ST down lat. to Robert Ruiz for 8 yds to the ColSt 45 for a 1ST down lat. to Dalyn Dawkins for no gain to the ColSt 45 for a 1ST down lat. to Demontrie Taylor for 5 yds to the ColSt 45 for a 1ST down lat. to Team for no gain to the ColSt 27 for a 1ST down COLORADO ST Penalty, illegal forward pass (Demontrie Taylor) to the ColSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:35
Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalyn Dawkins for 11 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-16.5
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+9.1
TD · Q2 0:27
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 12 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)
+7.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com