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BOIS

Boise State 38 at Oregon State 24

ORST
2016 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2016 · Reser Stadium
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Win probability · ORST
modelORST aheadBOIS aheadconfidence bandkey playORST scoreBOIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:17 · Sean Wale punt for 51 yds , Victor Bolden Jr. returns for 5 yds to the 50 yard line OREGON ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Jay Irvine) to the OrgSt 4
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+58.0+29.00−29.0−58.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 184Pregame prior−2.6Home team on offense−41.7Score differential−19.8Garbage-time factor−11.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−8.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−8.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:56: Brett Rypien pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for 6 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK) — BOIS win probability +5.5 pts (now 85%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:37: Jeremy McNichols run for 70 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK) — BOIS win probability +4.0 pts (now 90%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:38: Ryan Nall run for 1 yd for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK) — ORST win probability +5.4 pts (now 13%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 5:14: Garrett Owens 41 yd FG GOOD — ORST win probability +1.4 pts (now 14%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:33: Darren Lee 19 Yd Fumble Return (Tyler Rausa Kick) — BOIS win probability +2.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORST made the numbers' call on 8 of 11BOIS made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 8:30ORST 4th & 15 at BOIS 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.2%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.4%
    62% to make
    Punt
    21.8%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:22ORST 4th & 2 at ORST 33, down 7
    Close callPunted · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:13BOIS 4th & 6 at BOIS 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.9%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:31ORST 4th & 5 at ORST 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.8%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:27ORST 4th & 13 at BOIS 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.3%−0.5
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    22.3%−0.4
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    22.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:18ORST 4th & 25 at ORST 23, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.1%−1.4
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:31ORST 4th & 13 at midfield, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%−0.2
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.7%
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00ORST 4th & 23 at ORST 31, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.2%−3.0
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:24BOIS 4th & 7 at BOIS 33, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.3%−0.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:14ORST 4th & 5 at BOIS 23, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.1%
    70% to make
    Punt
    7.5%−4.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:08BOIS 4th & 5 at BOIS 33, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.3%−1.0
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:19ORST 4th & 1 at BOIS 46, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    11.4%−2.8
    23% to make
    Punt
    12.4%−1.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:21BOIS 4th & 13 at BOIS 43, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.2%−2.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:37ORST 4th & 4 at ORST 44, down 14
    Close callPunted · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.3%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:13BOIS 4th & 10 at BOIS 26, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.5%−1.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:50ORST 4th & 11 at BOIS 42, down 14
    Close callPunted · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.2%
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    9.9%−0.3
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    10.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:17BOIS 4th & 7 at BOIS 45, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.7%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2BOIS made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 12:29BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:22ORST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:23BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:56BOIS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:37BOIS Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:38ORST Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:33BOIS Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BOISDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:3182% → 81%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
18.4%
Jeremy McNichols run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
18.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jake Knight for 10 yds to the BoiSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
18.4%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Jeremy McNicholsSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+28
18.4%
Akilian Butler run for 28 yds to the OrgSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
18.4%
Jeremy McNichols run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 28
-2
18.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+9
18.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Alec Dhaenens for 9 yds to the OrgSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+16
18.4%
Jeremy McNichols run for 16 yds to the OrgSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
18.9%
Jeremy McNichols run for 5 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 2TD
5 plays · 41 yds · 0:5719% → 21%
Q1 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
19.2%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Seth Collins for 9 yds to the BoiSt 32Similar
Q1 12:19
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+3
19.3%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Victor Bolden Jr. for 3 yds to the BoiSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
19.3%
Collins, Seth pass incomplete to Garretson, D., PENALTY BSU pass interference (FRAZIER, Jabril) 15 yards to the BSU14, 1ST DOWN OSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
20.6%
Ryan Nall run for 14 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 3FUMBLE
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
20.1%
Brett Rypien pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
20.2%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Chaz Anderson for 4 yds to the BoiSt 29Similar
Q1 11:22
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-7
20.2%
Brett Rypien sacked by Devin Chappell for a loss of 7 yards to the BoiSt 22 Brett Rypien fumbled, recovered by OrgSt Titus Failauga , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 4MISSED FG
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:5821% → 22%
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-6
21.1%
Victor Bolden Jr. run for a loss of 6 yards to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q1 10:28
2ND & 16
OPP 28
+4
20.9%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 4 yds to the BoiSt 24Similar
Q1 10:28
3RD & 12
OPP 24
-3
20.9%
Darell Garretson sacked by Sam McCaskill and David Moa for a loss of 3 yards to the BoiSt 27Similar
Q1 8:30
4TH & 15
OPP 27
+45
21.5%
Garrett Owens 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 5TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 3:0779% → 80%
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
21.5%
Jeremy McNichols run for 8 yds to the BoiSt 35Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+10
21.3%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Chaz Anderson for 10 yds to the BoiSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+23
21.2%
Cedrick Wilson pass complete to Alec Dhaenens for 23 yds to the OrgSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
21.0%
Jeremy McNichols run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+9
20.9%
Thomas Sperbeck run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
20.9%
Jeremy McNichols run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 13Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 2
OPP 13
+2
20.9%
Jeremy McNichols run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
20.9%
Brett Rypien pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+5
20.9%
Alexander Mattison run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 6Similar
Q1 5:23
3RD & 5
OPP 6
+6
20.0%
Jeremy McNichols run for 6 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 2:0121% → 21%
Q1 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
20.7%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Victor Bolden Jr. for 5 yds to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q1 5:23
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
20.8%
Ryan Nall run for no gain to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q1 5:23
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+3
20.6%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Ryan Nall for 3 yds to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q1 3:22
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+42
20.7%
Nick Porebski punt for 42 yds , Akilian Butler returns for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
20.8%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 9 yds to the BoiSt 33Similar
Q1 3:13
2ND & 1
OWN 33
0
20.4%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Cedrick WilsonSimilar
Q1 3:13
3RD & 1
OWN 33
-5
20.5%
BOISE ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q1 3:13
3RD & 6
OWN 28
0
20.8%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Thomas SperbeckSimilar
Q1 3:13
4TH & 6
OWN 28
0
21.3%
Sean Wale punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Victor Bolden Jr. at the OrgSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
20.8%
Seth Collins run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q1 2:31
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+8
20.9%
Ryan Nall run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
21.0%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Victor Bolden Jr. for 6 yds to the OrgSt 41Similar
Q1 2:31
2ND & 4
OWN 41
-1
21.6%
Ryan Nall run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q1 2:31
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
21.2%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Ryan Nall, broken up by Sam McCaskillSimilar
Q1 2:31
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
20.7%
Nick Porebski punt for 45 yds , Akilian Butler returns for no gain to the BoiSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 9FUMBLE
7 plays · 36 yds · 0:1379% → 80%
Q1 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+11
21.3%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 11 yds to the BoiSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
21.1%
Jeremy McNichols run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 29
-5
20.8%
BOISE ST Penalty, false start (Jake Knight) to the BoiSt 24Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 24
+14
21.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for 14 yds Jeremy McNichols fumbled, forced by Devin Chappell, recovered by BoiSt Alec Dhaenens for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
20.3%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Chaz AndersonSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+13
20.6%
Alexander Mattison run for 13 yds to the OrgSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-2
20.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 49 TEAM fumbled, recovered by OrgSt Bright UgwoegbuSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 0:0023% → 21%
Q2 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
22.8%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Jordan VillaminSimilar
Q2 13:27
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+7
22.6%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 7 yds to the BoiSt 44Similar
Q2 13:27
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+4
23.0%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Artavis Pierce for 4 yds to the BoiSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
23.1%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Jordan VillaminSimilar
Q2 13:27
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+8
23.0%
Artavis Pierce run for 8 yds to the BoiSt 32Similar
Q2 13:27
3RD & 2
OPP 32
-5
23.0%
OREGON ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BoiSt 37Similar
Q2 13:27
3RD & 7
OPP 37
-6
22.9%
Darell Garretson sacked by David Moa for a loss of 6 yards to the BoiSt 43Similar
Q2 13:27
4TH & 13
OPP 43
0
21.2%
Nick Porebski punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Akilian Butler at the BoiSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 11TD
12 plays · 90 yds · 4:0378% → 85%
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
22.2%
Jeremy McNichols run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 14Similar
Q2 10:59
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+5
22.2%
Thomas Sperbeck run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 19Similar
Q2 10:59
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+4
22.2%
Jeremy McNichols run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
22.1%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Thomas SperbeckSimilar
Q2 9:23
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+26
22.9%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 26 yds to the BoiSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
21.5%
Jeremy McNichols run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q2 9:23
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+20
21.2%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Chaz Anderson for 20 yds to the OrgSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+13
21.0%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 13 yds to the OrgSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
21.0%
Brett Rypien run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 6Similar
Q2 9:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
21.0%
Brett Rypien pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
15.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for 6 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 0 yds · 3:3316% → 16%
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
16.2%
Paul Lucas run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q2 6:51
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+7
16.1%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Seth Collins for 7 yds to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q2 6:51
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+6
16.6%
Ryan Nall run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
16.9%
Seth Collins run for a loss of 5 yards to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q2 6:51
2ND & 15
OWN 33
-2
16.1%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Victor Bolden Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q2 6:51
3RD & 17
OWN 31
-8
16.0%
Darell Garretson sacked by Jabril Frazier for a loss of 8 yards to the OrgSt 23Similar
Q2 3:18
4TH & 25
OWN 23
0
15.7%
Nick Porebski punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Akilian Butler at the BoiSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 13TD
2 plays · 70 yds · 0:3386% → 90%
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 0
0
14.4%
McNICHOLS, Jeremy rush for 25 yards to the OSU45, out-of-bounds (Savea, Paisa), PENALTY BSU clipping off-setting, PENALTY OSU offside off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+70
10.4%
Jeremy McNichols run for 70 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 0:5911% → 11%
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
10.9%
Garretson, D. sacked for loss of 2 yards to the OSU41 (FRAZIER, Jabril), PENALTY BSU face mask (FRAZIER, Jabril) 10 yards to the BSU47, 1ST DOWN OSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
11.3%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Seth CollinsSimilar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
11.2%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Victor Bolden Jr., broken up by DeAndre PierceSimilar
Q2 2:30
3RD & 10
OPP 47
-10
11.0%
Garretson, D. pass complete to Collins, Seth for 12 yards to the BSU35 (VALLEJO, Tanner;VANDER ESCH, L.), PENALTY OSU holding 10 yards to the OSU43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:30
3RD & 20
OWN 43
+7
10.4%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Ryan Nall for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:31
4TH & 13
50
0
11.4%
Nick Porebski punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Akilian Butler at the BoiSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 15FG
9 plays · 80 yds · 1:2390% → 94%
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+15
10.2%
Devan Demas run for 15 yds to the BoiSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
9.2%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Akilian ButlerSimilar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
9.2%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Thomas SperbeckSimilar
Q2 1:23
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+31
9.6%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 31 yds to the OrgSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
8.2%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Chaz Anderson for 11 yds to the OrgSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+27
7.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 27 yds to the OrgSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-4
7.0%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for a loss of 4 yards to the OrgSt 12Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+29
6.3%
Tyler Rausa 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
8.7%
Artavis Pierce run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+16
8.8%
Artavis Pierce run for 16 yds to the OrgSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
9.4%
Artavis Pierce run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 47Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 47
-1
9.6%
Artavis Pierce run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 46Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 46
-15
9.5%
Blount, Conor pass complete to Ortiz, Ricky for 6 yards to the BSU48 (PIERCE, DeAndre), PENALTY OSU illegal block (Bailey, Jaylynn) 15 yards to the OSU31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 23
OWN 31
0
8.6%
Conor Blount pass incomplete to Ricky OrtizSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 23
OWN 31
0
8.6%
Nick Porebski punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Akilian Butler at the BoiSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
5.7%
Jeremy McNichols run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 33Similar
Q3 12:24
2ND & 7
OWN 33
0
5.7%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Thomas SperbeckSimilar
Q3 12:24
3RD & 7
OWN 33
0
5.9%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Cedrick WilsonSimilar
Q3 12:24
4TH & 7
OWN 33
0
5.9%
Sean Wale punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Victor Bolden Jr. at the OrgSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 18TD
14 plays · 82 yds · 4:556% → 13%
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
6.1%
Conor Blount run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 23Similar
Q3 11:33
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+9
6.3%
Conor Blount pass complete to Seth Collins for 9 yds to the OrgSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
6.3%
Ryan Nall run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q3 11:33
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+1
6.5%
Conor Blount pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 1 yd to the OrgSt 41Similar
Q3 11:33
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+4
6.6%
Ryan Nall run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
6.7%
Conor Blount pass incomplete to Jordan Villamin, broken up by Raymond FordSimilar
Q3 11:33
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+15
6.7%
Ryan Nall run for 15 yds to the BoiSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
6.9%
Ryan Nall run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 38Similar
Q3 11:33
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+7
6.9%
Conor Blount pass complete to Seth Collins for 7 yds to the BoiSt 31Similar
Q3 11:33
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+12
7.3%
Artavis Pierce run for 12 yds to the BoiSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-5
7.6%
OREGON ST Penalty, false start (Gavin Andrews) to the BoiSt 24Similar
Q3 11:33
1ST & 15
OPP 24
+16
7.3%
Conor Blount pass complete to Ricky Ortiz for 16 yds to the BoiSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
7.6%
Conor Blount pass complete to Victor Bolden Jr. for 7 yds to the BoiSt 1Similar
Q3 6:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
13.0%
Ryan Nall run for 1 yd for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 19FG
6 plays · 29 yds · 1:2312% → 14%
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+24
12.2%
Conor Blount pass complete to Victor Bolden Jr. for 24 yds to the BoiSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
13.0%
Conor Blount pass incomplete to Seth Collins, broken up by Tyler HortonSimilar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+5
12.7%
Artavis Pierce run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 23Similar
Q3 6:37
3RD & 5
OPP 23
0
12.7%
Conor Blount pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:14
4TH & 5
OPP 23
+41
14.0%
Garrett Owens 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q3 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
10.9%
Jeremy McNichols run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 30Similar
Q3 5:08
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+6
11.0%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Akilian Butler for 6 yds to the BoiSt 36Similar
Q3 5:08
3RD & 2
OWN 36
-5
10.8%
BOISE ST Penalty, false start (Archie Lewis) to the BoiSt 31Similar
Q3 5:08
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+2
11.2%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for 2 yds to the BoiSt 33Similar
Q3 5:08
4TH & 5
OWN 33
+16
11.3%
Sean Wale punt for 38 yds , Victor Bolden Jr. returns for 16 yds to the OrgSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 21DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0014% → 13%
Q3 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
13.5%
Ryan Nall run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+1
13.9%
Ryan Nall run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 48Similar
Q3 3:19
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+2
13.7%
Ryan Nall run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 46Similar
Q3 3:19
4TH & 1
OPP 46
0
13.4%
Ryan Nall run for no gain to the BoiSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0091% → 90%
Q3 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
9.1%
Jeremy McNichols run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 1:21
2ND & 6
50
0
9.0%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Alexander MattisonSimilar
Q3 1:21
3RD & 6
50
-7
9.1%
Brett Rypien sacked by Bright Ugwoegbu for a loss of 7 yards to the BoiSt 43Similar
Q3 1:21
4TH & 13
OWN 43
0
10.2%
Sean Wale punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:2311% → 11%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-2
11.0%
Conor Blount sacked by Darren Lee for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 15Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 15
+4
10.8%
Trevon Bradford run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 19Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 19
+19
10.6%
Conor Blount pass complete to Seth Collins for 19 yds to the OrgSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-6
12.1%
Conor Blount sacked by Blake Whitlock for a loss of 6 yards to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q4 12:37
2ND & 16
OWN 32
+6
9.7%
Conor Blount run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 38Similar
Q4 12:37
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+6
9.9%
Conor Blount pass complete to Seth Collins for 6 yds to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q4 12:37
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
10.7%
Nick Porebski punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BoiSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0694% → 94%
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
6.2%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Thomas SperbeckSimilar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
5.4%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Chaz AndersonSimilar
Q4 11:13
3RD & 10
OWN 26
0
5.7%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Akilian ButlerSimilar
Q4 11:13
4TH & 10
OWN 26
+8
5.9%
Sean Wale punt for 51 yds , Victor Bolden Jr. returns for 8 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 25PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-6
9.9%
Conor Blount sacked by David Moa for a loss of 6 yards to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 16
OWN 25
0
9.4%
Conor Blount pass incomplete to Jordan Villamin, broken up by Sam McCaskillSimilar
Q4 10:50
3RD & 16
OWN 25
+34
9.3%
Conor Blount pass complete to Seth Collins for 34 yds to the BoiSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
11.3%
Conor Blount pass incomplete to Ryan NallSimilar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-5
11.1%
OREGON ST Penalty, false start (Seth Collins) to the BoiSt 46Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 15
OPP 46
0
10.6%
Conor Blount pass incomplete to Jordan VillaminSimilar
Q4 10:50
3RD & 15
OPP 46
+4
10.2%
Conor Blount run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 42Similar
Q4 10:50
4TH & 11
OPP 42
0
10.4%
Nick Porebski punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Akilian Butler at the BoiSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 26PUNT
12 plays · 40 yds · 4:4796% → 97%
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
4.5%
Jeremy McNichols run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 7Similar
Q4 9:04
2ND & 8
OWN 7
+1
4.6%
Jeremy McNichols run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 8Similar
Q4 9:04
3RD & 7
OWN 8
+10
4.9%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 10 yds to the BoiSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+11
4.5%
Jeremy McNichols run for 11 yds to the BoiSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
4.4%
Jeremy McNichols run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 36Similar
Q4 9:04
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+2
4.3%
Jeremy McNichols run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 38Similar
Q4 9:04
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+4
4.4%
Jeremy McNichols run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
4.1%
Jeremy McNichols run for no gain to the BoiSt 42Similar
Q4 9:04
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+3
4.2%
Alexander Mattison run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 45Similar
Q4 4:17
3RD & 7
OWN 45
0
2.7%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Chaz AndersonSimilar
Q4 4:17
4TH & 7
OWN 45
+5
2.8%
Sean Wale punt for 51 yds , Victor Bolden Jr. returns for 5 yds to the 50 yard line OREGON ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Jay Irvine) to the OrgSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 27FUMBLE RETURN TD
2 plays · 15 yds · 0:263% → 1%
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+13
2.9%
Conor Blount pass complete to Seth Collins for 13 yds to the OrgSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-19
0.8%
Darren Lee 19 Yd Fumble Return (Tyler Rausa Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 28TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-19
0.1%
TEAM pass intercepted Ricky Liuchan return for a loss of 19 yards to the OrgSt 0Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 30END OF GAME
10 plays · 32 yds · 2:40100% → 100%
Q4 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
0.1%
OREGON ST Penalty, offside defense (Noke Tago) to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q4 3:21
1ST & 5
OPP 40
0
0.1%
Jeremy McNichols run for no gain to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q4 3:21
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+7
0.1%
Jeremy McNichols run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+11
0.1%
Jeremy McNichols run for 11 yds to the OrgSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
0.1%
Jeremy McNichols run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 14Similar
Q4 3:21
2ND & 2
OPP 14
-1
0.1%
Devan Demas run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 15Similar
Q4 0:41
3RD & 3
OPP 15
+4
0.1%
Devan Demas run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:56
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for 6 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)
-5.5
TD · Q3 6:38
Ryan Nall run for 1 yd for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)
+5.4
TD · Q2 2:37
Jeremy McNichols run for 70 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)
-4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com