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FRES

Fresno State 20 at Boise State 40

BOIS
2022 · Week 6 · Oct 8, 2022 · Albertsons Stadium
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Win probability · BOIS
modelBOIS aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playBOIS scoreFRES score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDFGFGTDFGFGTDEnd of GameFG+8.2BOIS 96.3%Jonah Dalmas 24 yd FG GOODAWAY 20 - HOME 33 · Q4 6:32
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:32 · Jonah Dalmas 24 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 133Pregame prior+2.8Home team on offense+25.4Garbage-time factor+12.5Score differential+11.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+3.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:59: Nikko Remigio run for 5 yds for a TD, (Abraham Montano KICK) — FRES win probability +11.0 pts (now 38%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:58: Ashton Jeanty run for 13 yds for a TD, (Jonah Dalmas KICK) — BOIS win probability +9.0 pts (now 80%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 8:57: Abraham Montano 29 yd FG GOOD — FRES win probability +6.0 pts (now 39%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:46: Taylen Green pass complete to George Holani for 5 yds for a TD, (Jonah Dalmas KICK) — BOIS win probability +16.7 pts (now 85%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 6:32: Jonah Dalmas 24 yd FG GOOD — BOIS win probability +8.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BOIS made the numbers' call on 3 of 7FRES made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 13:12FRES 4th & 5 at FRES 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.7%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:01FRES 4th & 6 at BOIS 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.2%
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:33BOIS 4th & 4 at FRES 7, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 73.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.9%−0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    70.8%−2.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:58BOIS 4th & 4 at FRES 4, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 73.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.0%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    69.6%−3.8
    average punt
  5. Q3 12:50BOIS 4th & 5 at BOIS 30, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.6%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.1%
    average punt
  6. Q3 8:57FRES 4th & 9 at BOIS 11, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.0%−1.2
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.2%
    87% to make
    Punt
    21.5%−8.7
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:01BOIS 4th & 4 at BOIS 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 65.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.5%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:35FRES 4th & 5 at FRES 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.2%−0.9
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.1%
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:09FRES 4th & 21 at FRES 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.5%−5.0
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.5%
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:52BOIS 4th & 4 at FRES 16, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.9%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.5%−0.3
    81% to make
    Punt
    77.4%−9.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:32BOIS 4th & 7 at FRES 7, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.5%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    86.4%−4.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:32FRES 4th & 4 at FRES 18, down 13
    Close callPunted · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.3%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:35BOIS 4th & 1 at FRES 12, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    97.6%−0.2
    86% to make
    Punt
    95.8%−1.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BOIS made the numbers' call on 4 of 4FRES made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 10:58BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:33FRES Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:59FRES Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:58BOIS Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:46BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:35BOIS Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FRESDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:4825% → 26%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+2
74.7%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 22Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+2
74.7%
Logan Fife pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 2 yds Nikko Remigio fumbled, recovered by FrsStSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+6
74.7%
Logan Fife pass complete to Jordan Mims for 6 yds to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q1 13:12
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
74.4%
Carson King punt for 24 yds, downed at the BoiSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 2TD
6 plays · 54 yds · 2:1474% → 75%
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+17
74.4%
Taylen Green pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 17 yds to the FrsSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+14
74.5%
George Holani run for 14 yds to the FrsSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+13
74.5%
Taylen Green run for 13 yds to the FrsSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
74.5%
Taylen Green run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 9Similar
Q1 13:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
74.5%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
75.3%
Taylen Green pass complete to Billy Bowens for 9 yds for a TD, (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:5725% → 25%
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
74.8%
Logan Fife pass complete to Jordan Mims for 14 yds to the FrsSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
74.6%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q1 10:58
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+2
74.6%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 47Similar
Q1 10:58
3RD & 6
OPP 47
0
74.6%
Logan Fife pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:01
4TH & 6
OPP 47
0
75.1%
Carson King punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 4INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 1:3075% → 75%
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
75.2%
George Holani run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 8Similar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 9
OWN 8
0
75.2%
Taylen Green run for no gain to the BoiSt 8Similar
Q1 7:31
3RD & 9
OWN 8
0
75.0%
Taylen Green pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 5TD
5 plays · 11 yds · 1:1326% → 29%
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
74.0%
Jaylen Henderson run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 9Similar
Q1 6:46
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+4
74.0%
Logan Fife run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 5Similar
Q1 6:46
3RD & 4
OPP 5
+4
74.4%
run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
71.0%
Logan Fife run for 1 yd for a TD, (Abraham Montano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 6FG
15 plays · 68 yds · 6:5572% → 72%
Q1 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
72.3%
Ashton Jeanty run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 29Similar
Q1 5:28
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
72.4%
Taylen Green run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 32Similar
Q1 5:28
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
72.2%
Taylen Green run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
72.6%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:28
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
72.5%
Taylen Green pass complete to Shea Whiting for no gain fumbled, forced by Cale Sanders Jr., recovered by BoiStSimilar
Q1 5:28
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+25
72.1%
Taylen Green pass complete to Latrell Caples for 25 yds to the FrsSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
73.3%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:28
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+11
73.2%
Ashton Jeanty run for 11 yds to the FrsSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
73.5%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:28
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+5
73.4%
Ashton Jeanty run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 22Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 22
+9
72.4%
Taylen Green pass complete to Riley Smith for 9 yds to the FrsSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
72.9%
George Holani run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 8Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+1
72.9%
George Holani run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 7Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 7
0
72.4%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:33
4TH & 4
OPP 7
+24
72.2%
Jonah Dalmas 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 7INT
6 plays · 11 yds · 2:0828% → 28%
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
72.3%
Logan Fife run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 3Similar
Q2 12:12
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+4
72.6%
Jordan Mims run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 7Similar
Q2 12:12
3RD & 4
OWN 7
+5
73.2%
Logan Fife run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
72.3%
Logan Fife pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:25
2ND & 10
OWN 12
0
72.4%
Logan Fife pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 8FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2774% → 76%
Q2 11:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
73.5%
Taylen Green run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 7Similar
Q2 11:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
73.5%
Ashton Jeanty run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 4Similar
Q2 11:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
72.9%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
75.8%
Jonah Dalmas 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 9TD
13 plays · 72 yds · 5:5325% → 38%
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
74.8%
Jordan Mims run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q2 9:52
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+7
74.4%
run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
74.1%
Jordan Mims run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q2 9:52
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+1
73.4%
Jordan Mims run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q2 9:52
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+3
73.7%
run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
73.3%
Logan Fife sacked by Demitri Washington and Divine Obichere for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q2 9:52
2ND & 12
OWN 49
+3
74.2%
Malik Sherrod run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 48Similar
Q2 9:52
3RD & 9
OPP 48
+21
74.1%
Logan Fife pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 21 yds to the BoiSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+16
72.2%
Logan Fife pass complete to Jalen Moreno-Cropper for 16 yds to the BoiSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
72.2%
Jordan Mims run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 8Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+3
72.8%
Jordan Mims run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 5Similar
Q2 3:59
3RD & 4
OPP 5
+5
61.8%
Nikko Remigio run for 5 yds for a TD, (Abraham Montano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 10TD
3 plays · 78 yds · 0:5667% → 80%
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+59
66.8%
George Holani run for 59 yds to the FrsSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
70.9%
Ashton Jeanty run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 13Similar
Q2 2:58
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+13
79.9%
Ashton Jeanty run for 13 yds for a TD, (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 11FG
15 plays · 66 yds · 2:5323% → 31%
Q2 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
76.8%
Jordan Mims run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q2 2:53
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+2
76.1%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q2 2:53
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+1
76.3%
Jordan Mims run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+13
76.4%
Logan Fife pass complete to Raymond Pauwels for 13 yds to the FrsSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
75.4%
Logan Fife pass complete to Elijah Gates for 5 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q2 2:53
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+7
74.5%
Logan Fife pass complete to Jalen Moreno-Cropper for 7 yds to the BoiSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
73.9%
Logan Fife pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:53
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+6
74.7%
Logan Fife run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 42Similar
Q2 2:53
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+4
74.2%
Logan Fife run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
73.8%
Logan Fife run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 32Similar
Q2 2:53
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+15
72.5%
Logan Fife pass complete to Erik Brooks for 15 yds to the BoiSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
72.5%
Logan Fife pass complete to Jordan Mims for no gain to the BoiSt 17Similar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
71.2%
Logan Fife pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 17
+35
68.9%
Abraham Montano 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 2:1071% → 69%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
70.5%
George Holani run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
70.7%
George Holani run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-2
70.1%
Taylen Green sacked by David Perales and Johnny Hudson Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 30Similar
Q3 12:50
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+36
69.4%
Will Ferrin punt for 36 yds , Nikko Remigio returns for 36 yds to the BOISEST 34 BOISE ST Penalty, Kick Catch Interference enforced at the deadball spot for (TEAM) to the BoiSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 13FG
8 plays · 40 yds · 3:5333% → 39%
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
67.3%
Jordan Mims run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 48Similar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+5
67.2%
Jordan Mims run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 43Similar
Q3 12:50
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+2
67.1%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+29
67.1%
Logan Fife pass complete to Raymond Pauwels for 29 yds to the BoiSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
65.8%
run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 11Similar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 9
OPP 11
0
65.8%
Logan Fife pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:50
3RD & 9
OPP 11
0
67.4%
Logan Fife pass complete to Jordan Mims for no gain to the BoiSt 11Similar
Q3 8:57
4TH & 9
OPP 11
+29
61.4%
Abraham Montano 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:4965% → 65%
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+13
65.4%
Taylen Green pass complete to Latrell Caples for 13 yds to the BoiSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
66.5%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
66.1%
George Holani run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 42Similar
Q3 8:50
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+1
66.8%
Taylen Green pass complete to Latrell Caples for 1 yd to the BoiSt 43Similar
Q3 7:01
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
64.7%
Will Ferrin punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the FrsSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2638% → 36%
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
61.7%
Logan Fife run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q3 7:01
2ND & 5
OWN 27
0
60.9%
Jordan Mims run for no gain to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q3 7:01
3RD & 5
OWN 27
0
62.4%
Logan Fife pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:35
4TH & 5
OWN 27
0
63.6%
Carson King punt for 36 yds, fair catch by George Holani at the BoiSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 16TD
12 plays · 63 yds · 4:4966% → 85%
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
65.7%
George Holani run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 42Similar
Q3 5:35
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+18
67.5%
George Holani run for 18 yds to the FrsSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
68.5%
George Holani run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q3 5:35
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+2
69.5%
Ashton Jeanty run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q3 5:35
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+7
68.1%
run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
69.5%
Ashton Jeanty run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 19Similar
Q3 2:56
2ND & 3
OPP 19
-6
68.4%
Taylen Green run for a loss of 6 yards to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q3 2:56
3RD & 9
OPP 25
+13
66.8%
Taylen Green pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 13 yds to the FrsSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
68.4%
George Holani run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 7Similar
Q3 2:56
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+2
68.4%
George Holani run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 5Similar
Q3 0:46
3RD & 3
OPP 5
+5
85.2%
Taylen Green pass complete to George Holani for 5 yds for a TD, (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -11 yds · 1:3721% → 18%
Q3 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
79.2%
Logan Fife sacked by Ezekiel Noa for a loss of 8 yards to the FrsSt 17Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 18
OWN 17
0
79.9%
Logan Fife pass complete to Erik Brooks for no gain to the FrsSt 17Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 18
OWN 17
-3
80.9%
Jordan Mims run for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 14Similar
Q4 14:09
4TH & 21
OWN 14
+8
81.7%
Carson King punt for 46 yds , George Holani returns for 8 yds to the BoiSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 18FG
9 plays · 36 yds · 4:1787% → 88%
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+19
86.6%
Ashton Jeanty run for 19 yds to the FrsSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
87.1%
Ashton Jeanty run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+5
87.1%
Taylen Green run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q4 14:09
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+3
86.2%
run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
87.1%
Ashton Jeanty run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 8
OPP 20
-5
87.1%
BOISE ST Penalty, False Start (Will Farrar) to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 13
OPP 25
-2
86.9%
Taylen Green sacked by Bralyn Lux for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q4 14:09
3RD & 15
OPP 27
+11
85.3%
George Holani run for 11 yds to the FrsSt 16Similar
Q4 9:52
4TH & 4
OPP 16
+33
87.5%
Jonah Dalmas 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 19INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q4 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.6%
Logan Fife pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 20FG
7 plays · 37 yds · 3:1489% → 96%
Q4 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
89.0%
Ashton Jeanty run for no gain to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q4 9:46
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+35
88.8%
Taylen Green pass complete to Riley Smith for 35 yds to the FrsSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
89.0%
Ashton Jeanty run for no gain to the FrsSt 9Similar
Q4 9:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
89.0%
Taylen Green run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 6Similar
Q4 9:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-10
88.5%
GREEN, Taylen pass to the left incomplete intended for CRAVENS, Jackson broken up by GATES, Elijah at the FST0. PENALTY BOI Holding on HOLANI, George enforced 10 yards from the FST6 to the FST16. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 9:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 16
+9
88.1%
George Holani run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 7Similar
Q4 6:32
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
96.3%
Jonah Dalmas 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:496% → 6%
Q4 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
94.0%
Logan Fife pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:21
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+6
94.0%
Logan Fife pass complete to Tre Watson for 6 yds to the FrsSt 18Similar
Q4 6:21
3RD & 4
OWN 18
0
94.0%
Logan Fife pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:32
4TH & 4
OWN 18
0
94.3%
Carson King punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Latrell Caples at the BoiSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 22TD
15 plays · 62 yds · 4:5797% → 100%
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
96.9%
Ashton Jeanty run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 41Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+1
97.6%
Ashton Jeanty run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 42Similar
Q4 4:40
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+11
97.6%
Ashton Jeanty run for 11 yds to the FrsSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
97.7%
Ashton Jeanty run for no gain to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q4 3:23
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+7
98.5%
Ashton Jeanty run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q4 3:23
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+3
98.4%
Elelyon Noa run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+16
98.5%
Elelyon Noa run for 16 yds to the FrsSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
98.6%
Elelyon Noa run for no gain to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+6
98.6%
Elelyon Noa run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 15Similar
Q4 0:40
3RD & 4
OPP 15
+3
99.0%
Elelyon Noa run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 12Similar
Q4 0:35
4TH & 1
OPP 12
+12
99.8%
Ashton Jeanty 12 Yd Run (Jonah Dalmas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:46
Taylen Green pass complete to George Holani for 5 yds for a TD, (Jonah Dalmas KICK)
+16.7
TD · Q2 3:59
Nikko Remigio run for 5 yds for a TD, (Abraham Montano KICK)
-11
TD · Q2 2:58
Ashton Jeanty run for 13 yds for a TD, (Jonah Dalmas KICK)
+9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com