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UTM

UT Martin 7 at Boise State 30

BOIS
2022 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2022 · Albertsons Stadium
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Win probability · BOIS
modelBOIS aheadUTM aheadconfidence bandkey playBOIS scoreUTM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:04 · James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TnMar 5
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+45.5+22.80−22.8−45.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 106Pregame prior+24.6Home team on offense−5.6Garbage-time factor−3.2Score differential−2.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 12:22: Jonah Dalmas 37 Yd Field Goal — UTM win probability +2.3 pts (now 12%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 5:18: Jonah Dalmas 48 Yd Field Goal — UTM win probability +4.4 pts (now 18%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 7:27: Jonah Dalmas 34 Yd Field Goal — UTM win probability +20.6 pts (now 61%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:16: George Holani 8 Yd Run (Jonah Dalmas Kick) — UTM win probability +2.8 pts (now 55%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:15: Shotgun Brown,Cornelious pass complete short right to Smoot,EJ for 4 yards to the UTM24 (Teubner,Alexander), out of bounds PENALTY UTM Holding 10 yards from UTM20 to UTM10. NO PLAY. — UTM win probability +14.8 pts (now 88%) (top driver: UTM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BOIS made the numbers' call on 9 of 11UTM made the numbers' call on 14 of 15
  1. Q1 13:38UTM 4th & 5 at UTM 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.7%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:36UTM 4th & 16 at UTM 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.0%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:07UTM 4th & 16 at UTM 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.4%−0.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:25UTM 4th & 12 at BOIS 37, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.9%−<0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    8.0%
    40% to make
    Punt
    8.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:22BOIS 4th & 13 at UTM 20, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.6%−0.7
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.3%
    75% to make
    Punt
    83.1%−2.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:28UTM 4th & 13 at BOIS 48, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.7%−0.6
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:18BOIS 4th & 4 at UTM 31, down 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 80.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.5%−0.6
    54% to make
    Punt
    78.6%−1.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:18UTM 4th & 4 at UTM 31, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.4%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:29UTM 4th & 4 at UTM 31, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.6%−0.5
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:52BOIS 4th & 15 at BOIS 46, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.5%−1.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:58BOIS 4th & 15 at BOIS 46, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.7%−2.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:39UTM 4th & 17 at UTM 9, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.3%−3.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:39BOIS 4th & 20 at BOIS 47, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.7%−3.3
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:04BOIS 4th & 20 at BOIS 47, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.8%−3.7
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.5%
    average punt
  15. Q3 9:04UTM 4th & 3 at UTM 23, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.3%−0.2
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.5%
    average punt
  16. Q3 5:47UTM 4th & 3 at UTM 23, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%−0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.8%
    average punt
  17. Q3 5:47BOIS 4th & 14 at BOIS 49, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.3%−2.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.2%
    average punt
  18. Q3 1:13BOIS 4th & 14 at BOIS 49, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.0%−3.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.4%
    average punt
  19. Q4 14:15UTM 4th & 8 at UTM 22, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.6%−3.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.1%
    average punt
  20. Q4 14:15BOIS 4th & 1 at UTM 43, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    47.6%−8.1
    28% to make
    Punt
    49.4%−6.3
    average punt
  21. Q4 7:27BOIS 4th & 12 at UTM 17, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.9%−4.8
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.7%
    80% to make
    Punt
    23.1%−14.6
    average punt
  22. Q4 6:16UTM 4th & 15 at UTM 32, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.7%−7.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.3%
    average punt
  23. Q4 4:30UTM 4th & 15 at UTM 32, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.8%−6.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.9%
    average punt
  24. Q4 2:15BOIS 4th & 5 at BOIS 39, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 6.1 ptsPunted · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.0%−6.1
    average punt
  25. Q4 2:15UTM 4th & 8 at UTM 22, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.9%−2.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.9%
    average punt
  26. Q4 1:12UTM 4th & 8 at UTM 22, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.1%−2.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BOIS made the numbers' call on 1 of 1UTM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 9:41BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:25UTM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTMDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:225% → 5%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
95.3%
PENALTY UTM False Start 5 yards from UTM25 to UTM20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+3
95.3%
Zak Wallace run for 3 yds to the TnMar 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+7
95.3%
Dresser Winn pass complete to Zak Wallace for 7 yds to the TnMar 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
95.3%
Dresser Winn pass incomplete to Elijah SmootSimilar
Q1 13:38
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
95.1%
Tyler Larco punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BoiSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 2TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:5795% → 95%
Q1 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
95.0%
George Holani run for 9 yds to the BoiSt 29Similar
Q1 13:38
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+18
95.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Tyneil Hopper for 18 yds to the BoiSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
95.1%
George Holani run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:38
2ND & 7
50
-5
95.1%
PENALTY Boise False Start (Hopper,Tyneil) 5 yards from UTM50 to Boise45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:38
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+13
95.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Latrell Caples for 13 yds to the TnMar 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+34
95.1%
George Holani run for 34 yds to the TnMar 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
95.1%
George Holani run for 4 yds to the TnMar 4Similar
Q1 9:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
94.7%
H. Bachmeier pass,to S. Cobbs for 4 yds for a TD, (J. Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 3PUNT
11 plays · 16 yds · 3:295% → 6%
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
94.6%
Dresser Winn pass complete to Colton Dowell for 6 yds to the TnMar 20Similar
Q1 9:36
2ND & 4
OWN 20
+5
94.5%
Zak Wallace run for 5 yds to the TnMar 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
94.5%
Elijah Smoot run for 9 yds to the TnMar 34Similar
Q1 9:36
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
94.5%
Zak Wallace run for 2 yds to the TnMar 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
94.5%
PENALTY UTM Delay Of Game 5 yards from UTM36 to UTM31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+1
94.5%
Zak Wallace run for 1 yd to the TnMar 30Similar
Q1 9:36
2ND & 16
OWN 30
0
94.6%
Dresser Winn pass incomplete to Zak WallaceSimilar
Q1 9:36
3RD & 16
OWN 30
0
94.6%
Dresser Winn pass incomplete to Elijah SmootSimilar
Q1 9:36
4TH & 16
OWN 30
+18
94.6%
Tyler Larco punt for 53 yds , George Holani returns for 18 yds to the BoiSt 35Similar
Q1 6:07
4TH & 16
OWN 30
+18
94.2%
Tyler Larco punt for 53 yds , George Holani returns for 18 yds to the BoiSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 4FUMBLE
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q1 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
94.1%
Hank Bachmeier run for no gain to the BoiSt 35 Hank Bachmeier fumbled, recovered by TnMar John H. Ford IISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 5TD
4 plays · 35 yds · 1:336% → 7%
Q1 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
93.7%
Dresser Winn pass incomplete to Zoe RobertsSimilar
Q1 5:58
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+3
93.7%
Zak Wallace run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 38Similar
Q1 5:58
3RD & 13
OPP 38
+1
94.0%
Zak Wallace run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 37Similar
Q1 4:25
4TH & 12
OPP 37
+37
92.7%
Colton Dowell 37 Yd pass from Dresser Winn (Tyler Larco Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 6FG
17 plays · 58 yds · 6:5793% → 88%
Q1 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
92.7%
George Holani run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 27Similar
Q1 4:19
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+4
92.7%
Hank Bachmeier run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 31Similar
Q1 4:19
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+2
92.7%
George Holani run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
92.7%
George Holani run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 35Similar
Q1 4:19
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+6
92.7%
Hank Bachmeier run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 41Similar
Q1 4:19
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+7
92.8%
Shotgun Bachmeier,Hank pass incomplete short left to Cobbs,Stefan, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY UTM Pass Interference (Brackett,Andre) 7 yards from Boise41 to Boise48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+22
93.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Latrell Caples for 22 yds to the TnMar 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-10
93.1%
Jeanty,Ashton rush left for 4 yards gain to the UTM26 (Woods,Ty) PENALTY Boise Holding (Curran,Garrett) 10 yards from UTM30 to UTM40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 20
OPP 40
+10
91.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Billy Bowens for 10 yds to the TnMar 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+1
90.5%
Latrell Caples run for 1 yd to the TnMar 29Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 29
+12
90.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Cole Wright for 12 yds to the TnMar 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
90.5%
Ashton Jeanty run for 5 yds to the TnMar 22Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 22
+2
90.4%
Ashton Jeanty run for 2 yds to the TnMar 20Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 20
0
89.9%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Tyneil HopperSimilar
Q2 12:22
4TH & 13
OPP 20
+37
87.6%
Jonah Dalmas 37 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 7PUNT
13 plays · 27 yds · 2:5412% → 15%
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
87.6%
Dresser Winn pass complete to Elijah Smoot for 10 yds to the TnMar 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
87.3%
Zak Wallace run for 1 yd to the TnMar 36Similar
Q2 12:22
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+9
87.3%
Dresser Winn pass complete to Zak Wallace for 9 yds to the TnMar 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
86.9%
Dresser Winn pass incomplete to Elijah SmootSimilar
Q2 11:03
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+8
85.9%
Dresser Winn pass complete to DeVonte Tanksley for 8 yds to the BoiSt 47Similar
Q2 11:03
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+2
85.8%
Dresser Winn pass complete to Colton Dowell for 2 yds to the BoiSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
85.6%
Dresser Winn pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:03
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-10
85.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Winn,Dresser pass complete deep right to Smoot,EJ for 11 yards to the Boise34 (Kaniho,Kaonohi; Jones,Tyreque) PENALTY UTM Holding (Morgan,Lamar) 10 yards from Boise45 to UTM45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:03
2ND & 20
OWN 45
0
86.4%
TENN MARTIN Penalty, Equipment Violation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 11:03
3RD & 13
OPP 48
0
86.3%
Dresser Winn pass incomplete to DeVonte TanksleySimilar
Q2 9:28
4TH & 13
OPP 48
0
85.5%
Tyler Larco punt for 35 yds, fair catch by George Holani at the BoiSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 8FG
10 plays · 56 yds · 4:1085% → 82%
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+33
85.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 33 yds to the BoiSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
86.2%
George Holani run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 6
50
+4
86.4%
George Holani run for 4 yds to the TnMar 46Similar
Q2 9:28
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+4
86.4%
George Holani run for 4 yds to the TnMar 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
86.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Stefan CobbsSimilar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+5
86.4%
Shotgun Bachmeier,Hank pass incomplete short right to Cobbs,Stefan broken up by Lewis,Shaun PENALTY UTM Pass Interference (Lewis,Shaun) 5 yards from UTM42 to UTM37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
86.5%
Ashton Jeanty run for 4 yds to the TnMar 33Similar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+2
86.9%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Kurt Rafdal for 2 yds to the TnMar 31Similar
Q2 9:28
3RD & 4
OPP 31
0
86.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Latrell CaplesSimilar
Q2 5:18
4TH & 4
OPP 31
+48
82.1%
Jonah Dalmas 48 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 1:4920% → 21%
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
80.5%
DeVonte Tanksley run for 9 yds to the TnMar 34Similar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+1
79.8%
Zak Wallace run for 1 yd to the TnMar 33Similar
Q2 5:18
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-5
80.0%
PENALTY UTM False Start (Bray,Austin) 5 yards from UTM33 to UTM28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:18
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+3
80.8%
Dresser Winn pass complete to DeVonte Tanksley for 3 yds to the TnMar 31Similar
Q2 5:18
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+18
81.0%
Tyler Larco punt for 41 yds , George Holani returns for 18 yds to the BoiSt 46Similar
Q2 3:29
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+18
78.9%
Tyler Larco punt for 41 yds , George Holani returns for 18 yds to the BoiSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 10TD
9 plays · 54 yds · 3:1581% → 78%
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+26
80.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Davis Koetter for 26 yds to the TnMar 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
82.1%
Hank Bachmeier run for 5 yds to the TnMar 23Similar
Q2 3:29
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+1
82.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Shea Whiting for 1 yd to the TnMar 24Similar
Q2 3:29
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+12
81.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to George Holani for 12 yds to the TnMar 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
82.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Tyneil Hopper for 9 yds to the TnMar 3Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 1
OPP 3
+1
79.4%
George Holani run for 1 yd to the TnMar 4Similar
Q2 0:14
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+4
77.7%
George Holani 4 Yd pass from Hank Bachmeier (Jonah Dalmas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
73.7%
Dresser Winn run for a loss of 2 yards to the TnMar 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 2:5478% → 72%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
77.9%
George Holani run for 8 yds to the BoiSt 46Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+5
79.0%
George Holani run for 5 yds to the TnMar 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-24
79.3%
Hank Bachmeier sacked by Daylan Dotson for a loss of 24 yards to the BoiSt 27 Hank Bachmeier fumbled, recovered by TnMar Kurt Rafdal , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 34
OWN 27
+2
76.8%
George Holani run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 29Similar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 32
OWN 29
+17
76.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to George Holani for 17 yds to the BoiSt 46Similar
Q3 14:52
4TH & 15
OWN 46
0
75.8%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TnMar 16Similar
Q3 11:58
4TH & 15
OWN 46
0
72.0%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TnMar 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:1928% → 28%
Q3 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
71.7%
Zak Wallace run for 1 yd to the TnMar 17Similar
Q3 11:58
2ND & 9
OWN 17
-5
72.0%
PENALTY UTM False Start (Morgan,Lamar) 5 yards from UTM17 to UTM12. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:58
2ND & 14
OWN 12
0
72.1%
TENN MARTIN Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 11:58
3RD & 17
OWN 9
0
73.1%
Dresser Winn pass incomplete to Zak WallaceSimilar
Q3 10:39
4TH & 17
OWN 9
+20
72.1%
Tyler Larco punt for 54 yds , George Holani returns for 20 yds to the TnMar 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 1:3575% → 69%
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
75.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Stefan CobbsSimilar
Q3 10:39
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+6
74.9%
George Holani run for 6 yds to the TnMar 49Similar
Q3 10:39
3RD & 16
OPP 49
-4
72.0%
Hank Bachmeier sacked by Daylan Dotson for a loss of 4 yards to the BoiSt 47Similar
Q3 10:39
4TH & 20
OWN 47
0
70.8%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TnMar 5Similar
Q3 9:04
4TH & 20
OWN 47
0
68.8%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TnMar 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 18 yds · 3:1733% → 36%
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-2
67.1%
PENALTY UTM False Start (Russell,Jarod) 2 yards from UTM05 to UTM03. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:04
1ST & 12
OWN 3
+6
67.1%
Colton Dowell run for 6 yds to the TnMar 9Similar
Q3 9:04
2ND & 6
OWN 9
-4
67.4%
PENALTY UTM False Start (Olson,Gavin) 4 yards from UTM09 to UTM05. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:04
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+4
67.4%
Dresser Winn run for 4 yds to the TnMar 1 Dresser Winn fumbled, recovered by TnMar Dresser WinnSimilar
Q3 9:04
3RD & 14
OWN 1
+15
68.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Winn,Dresser pass incomplete short right to Nelson,DJ PENALTY Boise Pass Interference (Teubner,Alexander) 15 yards from UTM01 to UTM16, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
66.6%
Dresser Winn pass incomplete to Colton DowellSimilar
Q3 9:04
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+2
67.1%
Dresser Winn pass complete to Sam Franklin for 2 yds to the TnMar 18Similar
Q3 9:04
3RD & 8
OWN 18
+5
68.0%
Dresser Winn pass complete to DeVonte Tanksley for 5 yds to the TnMar 23Similar
Q3 9:04
4TH & 3
OWN 23
+5
68.3%
Tyler Larco punt for 57 yds , George Holani returns for 5 yds to the BoiSt 25Similar
Q3 5:47
4TH & 3
OWN 23
+5
63.7%
Tyler Larco punt for 57 yds , George Holani returns for 5 yds to the BoiSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 16PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 4:3465% → 56%
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
64.8%
Ashton Jeanty run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 30Similar
Q3 5:47
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
65.4%
Ashton Jeanty run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
65.7%
Ashton Jeanty run for 8 yds to the BoiSt 45Similar
Q3 5:47
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+1
68.1%
George Holani run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 46Similar
Q3 5:47
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+7
67.2%
George Holani run for 7 yds to the TnMar 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
68.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Stefan CobbsSimilar
Q3 5:47
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+1
68.5%
Ashton Jeanty run for 1 yd to the TnMar 46Similar
Q3 5:47
3RD & 9
OPP 46
-5
67.5%
Hank Bachmeier sacked by John H. Ford II for a loss of 5 yards to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q3 5:47
4TH & 14
OWN 49
0
63.4%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Oshae Baker at the TnMar 8Similar
Q3 1:13
4TH & 14
OWN 49
0
56.1%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Oshae Baker at the TnMar 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:5848% → 48%
Q3 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
52.5%
Dresser Winn pass complete to Colton Dowell for 5 yds to the TnMar 13Similar
Q3 1:13
2ND & 5
OWN 13
+7
52.2%
Zak Wallace run for 7 yds to the TnMar 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
51.8%
Dresser Winn pass complete to Colton Dowell for 3 yds to the TnMar 23Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
49.7%
Dresser Winn pass complete to Colton Dowell for 3 yds to the TnMar 23Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+1
49.1%
Zak Wallace run for 1 yd to the TnMar 22Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
51.3%
Dresser Winn pass incomplete to Colton DowellSimilar
Q4 14:15
4TH & 8
OWN 22
+8
51.7%
Tyler Larco punt for 38 yds , George Holani returns for 8 yds to the BoiSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 18FG
14 plays · 35 yds · 6:4859% → 39%
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
59.3%
Ashton Jeanty run for no gain to the BoiSt 48Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
58.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+9
55.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Latrell Caples for 9 yds to the TnMar 43Similar
Q4 14:15
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+3
57.2%
George Holani run for 3 yds to the TnMar 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
60.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Stefan CobbsSimilar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
60.1%
Ashton Jeanty run for no gain to the TnMar 40Similar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+14
58.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to George Holani for 14 yds to the TnMar 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
62.2%
George Holani run for 6 yds to the TnMar 20Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+1
62.2%
George Holani run for 1 yd to the TnMar 19Similar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+4
59.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Latrell Caples for 4 yds to the TnMar 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
62.2%
George Holani run for 1 yd to the TnMar 14Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+1
62.2%
George Holani run for 1 yd to the TnMar 13Similar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 8
OPP 13
+4
59.9%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 4 yds to the TnMar 17Similar
Q4 7:27
4TH & 12
OPP 17
+34
39.3%
Jonah Dalmas 34 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 19TD
4 plays · 23 yds · 1:0348% → 45%
Q4 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
47.8%
Ashton Jeanty run for 6 yds to the TnMar 17Similar
Q4 7:19
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+9
47.8%
Shotgun Bachmeier,Hank sacked for loss of 10 yards to the UTM27 (Dotson,Daylan) PENALTY UTM Roughing The Passer (Dotson,Daylan) 9 yards from UTM17 to UTM08, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
44.9%
George Holani 8 Yd Run (Jonah Dalmas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 1:4674% → 77%
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
26.0%
Cornelious Brown pass incomplete to Jordan CastleberrySimilar
Q4 6:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
26.6%
Cornelious Brown pass complete to DeVonte Tanksley for 12 yds to the TnMar 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-11
24.6%
Cornelious Brown sacked by Ahmed Hassanein for a loss of 11 yards to the TnMar 26 Cornelious Brown fumbled, recovered by TnMar Jordan Castleberry , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 6:16
2ND & 21
OWN 26
+6
26.9%
Cornelious Brown run for 6 yds to the TnMar 32Similar
Q4 6:16
3RD & 15
OWN 32
0
27.9%
Cornelious Brown pass incomplete to Randy Fields Jr.Similar
Q4 6:16
4TH & 15
OWN 32
0
28.8%
Tyler Larco punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BoiSt 34Similar
Q4 4:30
4TH & 15
OWN 32
0
23.2%
Tyler Larco punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BoiSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 2:1532% → 27%
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
32.2%
Tyler Crowe run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 36Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+5
32.4%
Tyler Crowe run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 41Similar
Q4 4:30
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+2
34.0%
Elelyon Noa run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q4 2:15
4TH & 5
OWN 39
+11
27.3%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 52 yds , DeVonte Tanksley returns for 11 yds to the TnMar 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:0388% → 88%
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
12.5%
Shotgun Brown,Cornelious pass complete short right to Smoot,EJ for 4 yards to the UTM24 (Teubner,Alexander), out of bounds PENALTY UTM Holding 10 yards from UTM20 to UTM10. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 20
OWN 10
+2
12.6%
Jordan Castleberry run for 2 yds to the TnMar 12Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 18
OWN 12
+10
12.8%
Cornelious Brown pass complete to Deray Lawrence for 10 yds to the TnMar 22Similar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
13.8%
Cornelious Brown pass incomplete to Elijah SmootSimilar
Q4 2:15
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
14.6%
Tyler Larco punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Latrell Caples at the BoiSt 40Similar
Q4 1:12
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
11.6%
Tyler Larco punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Latrell Caples at the BoiSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 23END OF GAME
3 plays · 0 yds · 1:1224% → 20%
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
24.1%
George Holani run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 43Similar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 7
OWN 43
-3
24.8%
Taylen Green run for a loss of 3 yards to the BoiSt 40Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 43
-3
19.8%
Taylen Green run for a loss of 3 yards to the BoiSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+80.2
FG · Q4 7:27
Jonah Dalmas 34 Yd Field Goal
-20.6
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:15
Shotgun Brown,Cornelious pass complete short right to Smoot,EJ for 4 yards to the UTM24 (Teubner,Alexander), out of bounds PENALTY UTM Holding 10 yards from UTM20 to UTM10. NO PLAY.
-14.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com