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FRES

Fresno State 28 at Boise State 16

BOIS
2022 · Week 14 · Dec 3, 2022 · Albertsons Stadium
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Win probability · BOIS
modelBOIS aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playBOIS scoreFRES score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+2.6BOIS 40.5%Jonah Dalmas 47 yd FG GOODAWAY 14 - HOME 6 · Q2 0:02
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:02 · Jonah Dalmas 47 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+45.0+22.50−22.5−45.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 91Home team on offense−7.4Score differential−3.7Garbage-time factor−3.0Pregame prior+3.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.2
This game in five plays
  1. PUNT · Q2 3:54: James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 45 yds , Nikko Remigio returns for 70 yds for a TD (Abraham Montano KICK) — FRES win probability +10.5 pts (now 51%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:18: Jordan Mims run for 2 yds for a TD (Abraham Montano KICK) — FRES win probability +8.4 pts (now 66%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:49: Jake Haener pass complete to Zane Pope for 22 yds for a TD (Abraham Montano KICK) — FRES win probability +15.0 pts (now 85%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:47: Jordan Mims run for 3 yds for a TD (Abraham Montano KICK) — FRES win probability +7.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:17: Taylen Green pass complete to Davis Koetter for 52 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK) — BOIS win probability +7.3 pts (now 10%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BOIS made the numbers' call on 7 of 10FRES made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 12:14BOIS 4th & 5 at FRES 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    59.7%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    59.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:00FRES 4th & 4 at FRES 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:11BOIS 4th & 6 at BOIS 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:46FRES 4th & 14 at FRES 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%−0.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:30BOIS 4th & 9 at BOIS 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.6%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.0%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:11FRES 4th & 9 at BOIS 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.2%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.5%
    80% to make
    Punt
    39.4%−2.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:16BOIS 4th & 9 at FRES 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.7%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.0%
    89% to make
    Punt
    57.1%−2.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:08FRES 4th & 16 at FRES 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.4%−1.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:41BOIS 4th & 7 at BOIS 41, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.1%−0.7
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.8%
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:58FRES 4th & 7 at FRES 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.7%−0.7
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.4%
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:54BOIS 4th & 10 at BOIS 25, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.1%−1.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.8%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:02BOIS 4th & 4 at FRES 30, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.6%−0.8
    56% to make
    Punt
    36.6%−1.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 13:16FRES 4th & 27 at FRES 8, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.6%−3.0
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.6%
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:04BOIS 4th & 12 at FRES 27, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.2%−2.0
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.2%
    62% to make
    Punt
    29.8%−7.4
    average punt
  15. Q3 8:04FRES 4th & 2 at FRES 33, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.1%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.1%
    average punt
  16. Q3 6:05BOIS 4th & 5 at FRES 45, down 5
    Close callPunted · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    42.7%−3.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    45.5%−0.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:51BOIS 4th & 4 at BOIS 31, down 19
    Close callPunted · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:25FRES 4th & 10 at FRES 31, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.0%
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:14FRES 4th & 1 at BOIS 36, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    93.7%−1.6
    42% to make
    Punt
    93.0%−2.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BOIS made the numbers' call on 0 of 1FRES made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q2 1:18FRES Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 14:49FRES Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 9:47FRES Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.2%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.5%
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 5:17BOIS Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.4%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BOISDrive 1DOWNS
9 plays · 30 yds · 2:2157% → 57%
Q1 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
56.9%
George Holani run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 36Similar
Q1 14:24
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+2
57.0%
George Holani run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 38Similar
Q1 13:41
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+22
57.0%
Taylen Green pass complete to Riley Smith for 22 yds to the FrsSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
57.2%
BOISE ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q1 13:06
1ST & 15
OPP 45
+10
57.2%
George Holani run for 10 yds to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q1 12:47
2ND & 5
OPP 35
0
57.4%
George Holani run for no gain to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q1 12:18
3RD & 5
OPP 35
0
57.4%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Riley SmithSimilar
Q1 12:14
4TH & 5
OPP 35
0
57.3%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Eric McAlisterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 2:0643% → 43%
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
57.0%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 37Similar
Q1 11:26
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+7
57.0%
Jake Haener pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 7 yds to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q1 10:43
3RD & 1
OWN 44
-3
56.7%
Jordan Mims run for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q1 10:00
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
57.2%
Carson King punt for 59 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:4057% → 57%
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
57.2%
Elelyon Noa run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 27Similar
Q1 9:29
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+8
57.4%
George Holani run for 8 yds to the BoiSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
57.4%
George Holani run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q1 8:49
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+4
57.6%
Taylen Green pass complete to Latrell Caples for 4 yds to the BoiSt 43Similar
Q1 8:06
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+1
57.6%
George Holani run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 44Similar
Q1 7:23
4TH & 1
OWN 44
-5
57.4%
BOISE ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q1 7:11
4TH & 6
OWN 39
+10
56.9%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 41 yds , Nikko Remigio returns for 10 yds to the FrsSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:1643% → 42%
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-10
56.9%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jordan Mims for 5 yds to the FrsSt 35 FRESNO ST Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (-15 Yards) to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q1 6:27
2ND & 20
OWN 20
0
57.2%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Nikko RemigioSimilar
Q1 6:12
3RD & 20
OWN 20
+6
57.5%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jordan Mims for 6 yds to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q1 5:46
4TH & 14
OWN 26
0
57.8%
Carson King punt for 41 yds, downed at the BoiSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5857% → 57%
Q1 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-3
57.4%
Taylen Green pass complete to Ashton Jeanty for a loss of 3 yards to the BoiSt 30Similar
Q1 5:05
2ND & 13
OWN 30
+4
57.2%
Taylen Green pass complete to Billy Bowens for 4 yds to the BoiSt 34Similar
Q1 4:36
3RD & 9
OWN 34
0
57.0%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Billy BowensSimilar
Q1 4:30
4TH & 9
OWN 34
0
56.5%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the FrsSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6MISSED FG
8 plays · 60 yds · 3:1043% → 44%
Q1 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
57.1%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q1 3:54
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+5
57.1%
Jake Haener pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 5 yds to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q1 3:18
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+20
57.2%
Jake Haener pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
50
+32
55.9%
Jake Haener pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 32 yds to the BoiSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
55.0%
Jordan Mims run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 17Similar
Q1 1:57
2ND & 9
OPP 17
0
54.9%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Mac DalenaSimilar
Q1 1:47
3RD & 9
OPP 17
0
55.6%
Jake Haener run for no gain to the BoiSt 17Similar
Q1 1:11
4TH & 9
OPP 17
+35
56.3%
Abraham Montano 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 7FG
15 plays · 71 yds · 5:4358% → 60%
Q1 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
57.6%
Ashton Jeanty run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 21Similar
Q1 0:31
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+7
57.6%
Taylen Green pass complete to Latrell Caples for 7 yds to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q2 14:49
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+6
57.3%
Taylen Green pass complete to Davis Koetter for 6 yds to the BoiSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+19
57.9%
Ashton Jeanty run for 19 yds to the FrsSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
59.5%
Taylen Green pass complete to Latrell Caples for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q2 13:28
2ND & 11
OPP 48
+13
59.2%
Taylen Green pass complete to Davis Koetter for 13 yds to the FrsSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
60.0%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Davis KoetterSimilar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+14
60.0%
Taylen Green run for 14 yds to the FrsSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
60.1%
Taylen Green run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 19Similar
Q2 12:07
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+4
60.2%
Ashton Jeanty run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 15Similar
Q2 11:22
3RD & 4
OPP 15
+6
59.6%
Taylen Green pass complete to Riley Smith for 6 yds to the FrsSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
60.4%
Taylen Green run for no gain to the FrsSt 9Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
60.5%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Billy BowensSimilar
Q2 10:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
59.8%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Eric McAlisterSimilar
Q2 10:16
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
59.8%
Jonah Dalmas 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:5342% → 39%
Q2 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
57.9%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Jalen Moreno-CropperSimilar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
58.0%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Jalen Moreno-CropperSimilar
Q2 9:31
3RD & 10
OWN 47
-6
58.8%
Jake Haener sacked by Caleb Biggers for a loss of 6 yards to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q2 9:08
4TH & 16
OWN 41
0
60.6%
Carson King punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Latrell Caples at the BoiSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 1:1960% → 60%
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
59.7%
George Holani run for 12 yds to the BoiSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
60.6%
Elelyon Noa run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 41Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 7
OWN 41
0
62.0%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:50
3RD & 7
OWN 41
0
60.6%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Latrell CaplesSimilar
Q2 7:41
4TH & 7
OWN 41
+2
59.6%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 49 yds , Nikko Remigio returns for 2 yds to the FrsSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:2540% → 38%
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
60.3%
Jordan Mims run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 17Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+3
60.3%
Jordan Mims run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q2 6:06
3RD & 2
OWN 20
+13
61.1%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Moreno-Cropper for 13 yds to the FrsSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
59.8%
Jordan Mims run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 36Similar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 7
OWN 36
0
59.6%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Nikko RemigioSimilar
Q2 5:07
3RD & 7
OWN 36
0
60.6%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Nikko RemigioSimilar
Q2 4:58
4TH & 7
OWN 36
0
62.0%
Carson King punt for 39 yds , Latrell Caples returns for no gain to the BoiSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 11PUNT RETURN TD
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5861% → 49%
Q2 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
61.0%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Billy BowensSimilar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
60.8%
Taylen Green run for no gain to the BoiSt 25Similar
Q2 4:10
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
59.9%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:54
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+70
49.3%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 45 yds , Nikko Remigio returns for 70 yds for a TD (Abraham Montano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 12INT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1051% → 50%
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
51.3%
Ashton Jeanty run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 30Similar
Q2 3:21
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
51.8%
Ashton Jeanty run for no gain to the BoiSt 30Similar
Q2 2:39
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-25
50.1%
Taylen Green pass intercepted Cam Lockridge return for 25 yds to the BoiSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 13TD
4 plays · 17 yds · 1:1454% → 66%
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+10
45.7%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Moreno-Cropper for 10 yds to the BoiSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
44.7%
Jordan Mims run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 2Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
33.6%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds for a TD (Abraham Montano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 14DOWNS
11 plays · 45 yds · 1:1237% → 41%
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
36.5%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Latrell CaplesSimilar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
36.2%
George Holani run for 9 yds to the BoiSt 34Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+9
36.7%
George Holani run for 9 yds to the BoiSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+21
37.3%
Taylen Green pass complete to Davis Koetter for 21 yds to the FrsSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
38.5%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Billy BowensSimilar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+6
38.3%
Taylen Green pass complete to Billy Bowens for 6 yds to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q2 0:08
3RD & 4
OPP 30
0
37.9%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Eric McAlisterSimilar
Q2 0:02
4TH & 4
OPP 30
+47
40.5%
Jonah Dalmas 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -17 yds · 1:3562% → 60%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
37.8%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jordan Mims for a loss of 6 yards to the FrsSt 19Similar
Q3 14:04
2ND & 16
OWN 19
-11
38.1%
Jake Haener sacked by Jackson Cravens for a loss of 11 yards to the FrsSt 8Similar
Q3 13:25
3RD & 27
OWN 8
0
38.9%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Raymond PauwelsSimilar
Q3 13:16
4TH & 27
OWN 8
0
39.7%
Carson King punt for 43 yds, downed at the BoiSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 17FG
9 plays · 24 yds · 3:0242% → 44%
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
41.7%
George Holani run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+9
42.1%
George Holani run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
41.6%
Taylen Green pass complete to Davis Koetter for 1 yd to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q3 11:28
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+10
42.8%
Taylen Green pass complete to Billy Bowens for 10 yds to the FrsSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
42.8%
Ashton Jeanty run for no gain to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q3 10:42
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+3
42.5%
Ashton Jeanty run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 22Similar
Q3 10:16
3RD & 7
OPP 22
-5
40.6%
BOISE ST Penalty, False Start (Mason Randolph) to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q3 10:10
3RD & 12
OPP 27
0
39.5%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Eric McAlisterSimilar
Q3 10:04
4TH & 12
OPP 27
+44
43.7%
Jonah Dalmas 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:3958% → 58%
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
42.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 9 yards to the FrsSt 16Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+5
42.5%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Moreno-Cropper for 5 yds to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q3 8:44
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+12
43.5%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Moreno-Cropper for 12 yds to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q3 8:04
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
42.4%
Carson King punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Latrell Caples at the BoiSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:5945% → 44%
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
44.5%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Billy BowensSimilar
Q3 7:59
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+14
44.0%
Taylen Green pass complete to Latrell Caples for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
50
+4
47.2%
Taylen Green run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q3 6:56
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+1
47.4%
Taylen Green run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q3 6:12
3RD & 5
OPP 45
0
46.8%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Billy BowensSimilar
Q3 6:05
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
44.1%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the FrsSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 20TD
15 plays · 87 yds · 6:0759% → 85%
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
40.6%
Jake Haener pass complete to Zane Pope for 7 yds to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q3 5:14
2ND & 3
OWN 20
+6
39.8%
Malik Sherrod run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-9
39.4%
Jake Haener sacked by Herbert Gums for a loss of 9 yards to the FrsSt 17Similar
Q3 4:31
2ND & 19
OWN 17
+13
40.0%
Jake Haener pass complete to Zane Pope for 13 yds to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q3 3:51
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+20
39.4%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Moreno-Cropper for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
50
0
34.9%
Malik Sherrod run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:35
2ND & 10
50
-5
34.8%
FRESNO ST Penalty, False Start (Braylen Nelson) to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q3 2:05
2ND & 15
OWN 45
0
37.1%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Mac DalenaSimilar
Q3 1:59
3RD & 15
OWN 45
0
36.6%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Zane PopeSimilar
Q3 1:51
4TH & 15
OWN 45
+15
38.7%
BOISE ST Penalty, Roughing the Kicker (Jaylen Clark) to the BoiSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
32.8%
Jordan Mims run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 35Similar
Q3 0:56
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+13
30.8%
Jordan Mims run for 13 yds to the BoiSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
30.3%
Jordan Mims run for no gain to the BoiSt 22Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
30.4%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Jalen Moreno-CropperSimilar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 10
OPP 22
+22
15.4%
Jake Haener pass complete to Zane Pope for 22 yds for a TD (Abraham Montano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 21INT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:1422% → 19%
Q4 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
21.9%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Riley SmithSimilar
Q4 14:22
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-10
21.5%
BOISE ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jack Beresford) to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q4 13:46
2ND & 20
OWN 28
+7
19.9%
Taylen Green pass complete to Riley Smith for 7 yds to the BoiSt 35Similar
Q4 13:23
3RD & 13
OWN 35
-21
19.2%
Taylen Green pass intercepted Cam Lockridge return for 21 yds to the BoiSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 22TD
7 plays · 34 yds · 3:2585% → 97%
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+14
14.7%
Jordan Mims run for 14 yds to the BoiSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
13.8%
Jordan Mims run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 15Similar
Q4 11:57
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+8
12.0%
Jordan Mims run for 8 yds to the BoiSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
10.9%
Jordan Mims run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 6Similar
Q4 10:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
9.6%
Jordan Mims run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 3Similar
Q4 9:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
2.6%
Jordan Mims run for 3 yds for a TD (Abraham Montano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:515% → 5%
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
5.2%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Latrell CaplesSimilar
Q4 9:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
5.1%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Eric McAlisterSimilar
Q4 9:26
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+6
5.0%
Taylen Green pass complete to Riley Smith for 6 yds to the BoiSt 31Similar
Q4 8:51
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
5.0%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the FrsSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 2:1997% → 98%
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-3
2.6%
Jordan Mims run for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 13
OWN 28
+4
2.4%
Jake Haener pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 4 yds to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q4 7:02
3RD & 9
OWN 32
-1
2.2%
Jordan Mims run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q4 6:25
4TH & 10
OWN 31
+11
1.8%
Carson King punt for 44 yds , Latrell Caples returns for 11 yds to the BoiSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 25TD
4 plays · 64 yds · 0:554% → 10%
Q4 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
3.6%
Taylen Green run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 42Similar
Q4 5:52
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+3
2.8%
Taylen Green run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 45Similar
Q4 5:37
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+3
2.8%
George Holani run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+52
10.1%
Taylen Green pass complete to Davis Koetter for 52 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 26END OF 4TH QUARTER
12 plays · 31 yds · 4:3894% → 98%
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
5.9%
Jordan Mims run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 38Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+2
5.5%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 36Similar
Q4 3:27
3RD & 1
OPP 36
0
4.4%
Jordan Mims run for no gain to the BoiSt 36Similar
Q4 3:14
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+2
3.7%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
3.5%
Jake Haener pass complete to Zane Pope for 9 yds to the BoiSt 25Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+2
2.5%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
2.4%
Jake Haener run for 9 yds to the BoiSt 14Similar
Q4 1:16
2ND & 1
OPP 14
+2
2.3%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-2
2.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:49
Jake Haener pass complete to Zane Pope for 22 yds for a TD (Abraham Montano KICK)
-15
PUNT · Q2 3:54
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 45 yds , Nikko Remigio returns for 70 yds for a TD (Abraham Montano KICK)
-10.5
TD · Q2 1:18
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds for a TD (Abraham Montano KICK)
-8.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com