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BOIS

Boise State 56 at Utah State 21

USU
2019 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2019 · Maverik Stadium
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Win probability · USU
modelUSU aheadBOIS aheadconfidence bandkey playUSU scoreBOIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:40 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+56.5+28.30−28.3−56.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:28: Jordan Love pass complete to Caleb Repp for 7 yds for a TD (Dominik Eberle KICK) — USU win probability +2.8 pts (now 45%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 1:20: George Holani run for 5 yds for a TD (Eric Sachse KICK) — BOIS win probability +5.7 pts (now 66%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 11:50: George Holani run for 1 yd for a TD (Eric Sachse KICK) — BOIS win probability +9.4 pts (now 77%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 6:11: Robert Mahone run for 1 yd for a TD (Eric Sachse KICK) — BOIS win probability +7.0 pts (now 86%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 0:19: Jaylon Henderson pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 14 yds for a TD (Eric Sachse KICK) — BOIS win probability +10.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7BOIS made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 13:15USU 4th & 5 at USU 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.9%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:15BOIS 4th & 5 at BOIS 49, up 7
    Close callPunted · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:28BOIS 4th & 10 at USU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.8%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    56.7%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:14USU 4th & 9 at USU 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.6%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:14USU 4th & 5 at USU 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.7%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:50USU 4th & 14 at USU 35, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.0%−1.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:22USU 4th & 10 at BOIS 25, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.3%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    12.3%
    66% to make
    Punt
    12.0%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:28USU 4th & 19 at USU 38, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.8%−0.4
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:28USU 4th & 5 at USU 42, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.7%
    average punt
  10. Q4 15:00BOIS 4th & 13 at BOIS 23, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:58BOIS 4th & 2 at BOIS 44, up 42
    Close callPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BOIS made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 13:21BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:28USU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:14BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 1:20BOIS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 11:50BOIS Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 6:11BOIS Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:19BOIS Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 4:32BOIS Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 0:26USU Touchdown, down 43 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 1:40USU Touchdown, down 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BOISDrive 1TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:3959% → 59%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+35
41.1%
George Holani run for 35 yds to the UthSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
41.1%
Jaylon Henderson pass complete to CT Thomas for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 42
+12
41.1%
Jaylon Henderson pass complete to CT Thomas for 12 yds to the UthSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
40.9%
Jaylon Henderson pass complete to John Hightower for 30 yds for a TD (Eric Sachse KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
41.1%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+5
41.1%
Jordan Love pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 5 yds to the UthSt 26Similar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 5
OWN 26
0
41.0%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Siaosi Mariner, broken up by Jalen WalkerSimilar
Q1 13:15
4TH & 5
OWN 26
0
41.0%
Christopher Bartolic punt for 42 yds, downed at the BoiSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
40.9%
George Holani run for 12 yds to the BoiSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
40.8%
Jaylon Henderson pass incomplete to Octavius EvansSimilar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+5
40.8%
Jaylon Henderson run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q1 12:15
3RD & 5
OWN 49
0
40.8%
Jaylon Henderson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:15
4TH & 5
OWN 49
0
40.9%
Joel Velazquez punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 4TD
13 plays · 86 yds · 3:1041% → 45%
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
40.8%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:38
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+6
40.8%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 6 yds to the UthSt 20Similar
Q1 10:38
3RD & 4
OWN 20
+11
40.7%
Jaylen Warren run for 11 yds to the UthSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
40.9%
Jaylen Warren run for 1 yd to the UthSt 32Similar
Q1 10:38
2ND & 9
OWN 32
0
40.9%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Siaosi Mariner, broken up by Jalen WalkerSimilar
Q1 10:38
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+25
40.7%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 25 yds to the BoiSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-8
41.6%
Jordan Love sacked by Curtis Weaver for a loss of 8 yards to the UthSt 49Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 18
OWN 49
+47
41.1%
Jordan Love pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 47 yds to the BoiSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
41.9%
Jaylen Warren run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 2Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
41.9%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Siaosi Mariner, broken up by Jalen WalkerSimilar
Q1 7:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
41.7%
LOVE, Jordan pass complete to MARINER, Siaosi for 2 yards to the BSU0, clock 07:34, PENALTY USU ineligible downfield on pass (MARINER, Siaosi) 5 yards to the BSU7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
44.5%
Jordan Love pass complete to Caleb Repp for 7 yds for a TD (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 35 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q1 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
43.4%
George Holani run for 14 yds to the BoiSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
42.9%
George Holani run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 43Similar
Q1 7:28
2ND & 6
OWN 43
0
42.7%
Jaylon Henderson pass incomplete to John HightowerSimilar
Q1 7:28
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+17
42.9%
Jaylon Henderson pass complete to Akilian Butler for 17 yds to the UthSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
42.6%
Jaylon Henderson pass incomplete to John HightowerSimilar
Q1 7:28
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
42.6%
Jaylon Henderson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:28
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
42.8%
Jaylon Henderson pass incomplete to John Hightower, broken up by Cameron HaneySimilar
Q1 7:28
4TH & 10
OPP 40
0
43.4%
Joel Velazquez punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Jordan Nathan at the UthSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 6INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+15
40.5%
Jordan Love pass intercepted for a TD Jalen Walker return for 15 yds for a TD (Eric Sachse KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:0041% → 40%
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
40.6%
WARREN, Jaylen rush for 5 yards to the USU30 (NAWAHINE, Kekoa;WHIMPEY, Riley), PENALTY USU holding (EDWARDS, Alfred) 10 yards to the USU15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:14
1ST & 20
OWN 15
0
40.5%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Siaosi MarinerSimilar
Q1 5:14
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+13
40.5%
Jordan Love pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 13 yds to the UthSt 28Similar
Q1 5:14
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-2
40.3%
Jordan Love sacked by Chase Hatada for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 26Similar
Q1 5:14
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
40.1%
Christopher Bartolic punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BoiSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 8TD
5 plays · 61 yds · 2:2861% → 66%
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
39.5%
Khalil Shakir run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
50
+4
39.3%
George Holani run for 4 yds to the UthSt 46Similar
Q1 3:48
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+5
39.3%
George Holani run for 5 yds to the UthSt 41Similar
Q1 3:48
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+36
39.3%
George Holani run for 36 yds to the UthSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
33.6%
George Holani run for 5 yds for a TD (Eric Sachse KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
35.1%
Gerold Bright run for 1 yd to the UthSt 25Similar
Q1 1:14
2ND & 9
OWN 25
0
35.1%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Siaosi MarinerSimilar
Q1 1:14
3RD & 9
OWN 25
+4
34.8%
Jordan Love pass complete to Caleb Repp for 4 yds to the UthSt 29Similar
Q1 1:14
4TH & 5
OWN 29
0
34.9%
Christopher Bartolic punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BoiSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 10TD
7 plays · 51 yds · 3:1067% → 77%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+17
33.0%
Jaylon Henderson pass complete to John Hightower for 17 yds to the UthSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
32.9%
George Holani run for 4 yds to the UthSt 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 30
0
32.9%
Jaylon Henderson pass incomplete to John HightowerSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+10
33.2%
Jaylon Henderson run for 10 yds to the UthSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+16
32.9%
Andrew Van Buren run for 16 yds to the UthSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
32.9%
Ezra Cleveland run for 3 yds to the UthSt 1Similar
Q2 11:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
23.5%
George Holani run for 1 yd for a TD (Eric Sachse KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
24.4%
Jordan Love pass complete to Caleb Repp for 14 yds to the UthSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
25.2%
UTAH ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UthSt 34Similar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 15
OWN 34
-1
24.4%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jordan Nathan for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 33Similar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 16
OWN 33
+2
24.3%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jaylen Warren for 2 yds to the UthSt 35Similar
Q2 11:50
3RD & 14
OWN 35
0
24.2%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Deven Thompkins, broken up by JL SkinnerSimilar
Q2 11:50
4TH & 14
OWN 35
+49
24.2%
Christopher Bartolic punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UTAHST 26 BOISE ST Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the BoiSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 12TD
10 plays · 84 yds · 4:0678% → 86%
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
22.1%
George Holani run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 20Similar
Q2 10:17
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+13
22.6%
Jaylon Henderson pass complete to George Holani for 13 yds to the BoiSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+21
22.6%
George Holani run for 21 yds to the UthSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
21.9%
Andrew Van Buren run for 2 yds to the UthSt 44Similar
Q2 10:17
2ND & 8
OPP 44
0
22.0%
Jaylon Henderson pass incomplete to Khalil ShakirSimilar
Q2 10:17
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+13
22.4%
Jaylon Henderson pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 13 yds to the UthSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
21.8%
Andrew Van Buren run for 6 yds to the UthSt 25Similar
Q2 10:17
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+23
21.6%
Jaylon Henderson run for 23 yds to the UthSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
21.4%
Robert Mahone run for 1 yd to the UthSt 1Similar
Q2 6:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
14.4%
Robert Mahone run for 1 yd for a TD (Eric Sachse KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 13DOWNS
9 plays · 50 yds · 0:4711% → 12%
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
11.0%
Jordan Love pass complete to Gerold Bright for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 24Similar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+37
10.5%
Jordan Love pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 37 yds to the BoiSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+14
12.1%
Gerold Bright run for 14 yds to the BoiSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
12.7%
Gerold Bright run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 18Similar
Q2 5:22
2ND & 3
OPP 18
-7
12.2%
Gerold Bright run for a loss of 7 yards to the BoiSt 25Similar
Q2 5:22
3RD & 10
OPP 25
0
11.8%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Siaosi MarinerSimilar
Q2 5:22
4TH & 10
OPP 25
0
11.6%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 14TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 4:0283% → 96%
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
16.8%
Jaylon Henderson sacked by Christopher Unga for a loss of 12 yards to the BoiSt 13 BOISE ST Penalty, intentional grounding (Jaylon Henderson) to the BoiSt 13Similar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 22
OWN 13
0
17.8%
Jaylon Henderson pass incomplete to Khalil ShakirSimilar
Q2 4:21
3RD & 22
OWN 13
+30
18.4%
Jaylon Henderson pass complete to Akilian Butler for 15 yds to the BoiSt 28 for a 1ST down UTAH ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (DJ Williams) to the BoiSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
16.1%
Jaylon Henderson pass complete to John Bates for 1 yd to the BoiSt 44Similar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 9
OWN 44
0
16.1%
Jaylon Henderson pass incomplete to Khalil ShakirSimilar
Q2 4:21
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+10
16.5%
Jaylon Henderson pass complete to Robert Mahone for 10 yds to the UthSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
15.7%
Jaylon Henderson pass incomplete to John Bates, broken up by Cameron HaneySimilar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-1
15.9%
Jaylon Henderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 47Similar
Q2 4:21
3RD & 11
OPP 47
+12
16.3%
Jaylon Henderson pass complete to Andrew Van Buren for 12 yds to the UthSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
15.5%
CT Thomas pass incomplete to George HolaniSimilar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+17
15.5%
Jaylon Henderson run for 17 yds to the UthSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
15.1%
George Holani run for 4 yds to the UthSt 14Similar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 6
OPP 14
0
14.9%
George Holani run for no gain to the UthSt 14Similar
Q2 4:21
3RD & 6
OPP 0
0
15.2%
PENALTY BSU unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY USU unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+14
4.3%
Jaylon Henderson pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 14 yds for a TD (Eric Sachse KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 15END OF HALF
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
4.9%
UTAH ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the UthSt 21Similar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 15
OWN 21
0
4.9%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Deven ThompkinsSimilar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 15
OWN 21
+10
4.7%
Gerold Bright run for 10 yds to the UthSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 16PUNT RETURN TD
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:326% → 3%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
6.0%
Jordan Love run for 4 yds to the UthSt 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
5.8%
Jordan Love run for 3 yds to the UthSt 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+15
6.0%
Jordan Love pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 15 yds to the UthSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
6.4%
Gerold Bright run for 1 yd to the UthSt 48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 48
0
6.2%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Jordan NathanSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 48
-10
6.2%
Jordan Love sacked by Riley Whimpey for a loss of 10 yards to the UthSt 38Similar
Q3 12:28
4TH & 19
OWN 38
+74
2.8%
Christopher Bartolic punt for 36 yds , Avery Williams returns for 74 yds for a TD (Eric Sachse KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
2.9%
UTAH ST Penalty, false start (Caleb Repp) to the UthSt 20Similar
Q3 12:28
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+10
2.9%
Deven Thompkins run for 10 yds to the UthSt 30Similar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
2.8%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 7 yds to the UthSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
3.0%
Jaylen Warren run for 1 yd to the UthSt 38Similar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+4
2.9%
Jaylen Warren run for 4 yds to the UthSt 42Similar
Q3 12:28
3RD & 5
OWN 42
0
2.9%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Jaylen WarrenSimilar
Q3 12:28
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
2.8%
Christopher Bartolic punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Avery Williams at the BoiSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 18TD
12 plays · 83 yds · 6:1797% → 99%
Q3 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
2.8%
Jaylon Henderson pass complete to CT Thomas for 5 yds to the BoiSt 22Similar
Q3 10:49
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+4
2.9%
Akilian Butler run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 26Similar
Q3 10:49
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+3
2.9%
Jaylon Henderson run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
2.9%
Jaylon Henderson pass complete to CT Thomas for 6 yds to the BoiSt 35Similar
Q3 10:49
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+16
2.8%
George Holani run for 16 yds to the UthSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
2.7%
Jaylon Henderson pass incomplete, broken up by Jake PitcherSimilar
Q3 10:49
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+13
2.7%
George Holani run for 13 yds to the UthSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
2.7%
Andrew Van Buren run for 3 yds to the UthSt 33Similar
Q3 10:49
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+14
2.6%
Andrew Van Buren run for 14 yds to the UthSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
2.6%
Akilian Butler run for 4 yds to the UthSt 15Similar
Q3 10:49
2ND & 6
OPP 15
0
2.6%
Andrew Van Buren run for no gain to the UthSt 15Similar
Q3 4:32
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+15
1.2%
Jaylon Henderson pass complete to CT Thomas for 15 yds for a TD (Eric Sachse KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 19TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 4:061% → 1%
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
0.7%
Jordan Love pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 11 yds to the BoiSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
0.7%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 7 yds to the BoiSt 41Similar
Q3 4:32
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+4
0.7%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 4 yds to the BoiSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
0.7%
Gerold Bright run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 31Similar
Q3 4:32
2ND & 4
OPP 31
-2
0.7%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jordan Nathan for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 33Similar
Q3 4:32
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+14
0.7%
Jordan Love pass complete to Caleb Repp for 14 yds to the BoiSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
0.8%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Siaosi MarinerSimilar
Q3 4:32
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+8
0.7%
Jordan Love pass complete to Caleb Repp for 8 yds to the BoiSt 11Similar
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
0.7%
Gerold Bright run for 1 yd to the UthSt 31Similar
Q3 4:32
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+7
0.6%
Jordan Love pass complete to Gerold Bright for 7 yds to the UthSt 38Similar
Q3 4:32
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+3
0.7%
Jordan Love run for 3 yds to the UthSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:42
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+5
0.4%
Gerold Bright run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
0.6%
Gerold Bright run for 6 yds for a TD (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:2699% → 99%
Q3 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
0.8%
Andrew Van Buren run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 28
-14
0.7%
Andrew Van Buren run for a loss of 14 yards to the BoiSt 14Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 22
OWN 14
+9
0.8%
Jaylon Henderson pass complete to John Hightower for 9 yds to the BoiSt 23Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 23
0
0.8%
Joel Velazquez punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Jordan Nathan at the UthSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 21INT
11 plays · 47 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
0.4%
Jaylen Warren run for 5 yds to the UthSt 33Similar
Q4 13:27
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+4
0.3%
Henry Colombi run for 4 yds to the UthSt 37Similar
Q4 13:27
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+13
0.3%
Jaylen Warren run for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
50
+11
0.4%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Taylor Compton for 11 yds to the BoiSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
0.4%
Jaylen Warren run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 37Similar
Q4 13:27
2ND & 8
OPP 37
0
0.4%
Henry Colombi pass incomplete to Jaylen WarrenSimilar
Q4 13:27
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+17
0.4%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Sean Carter for 17 yds to the BoiSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
0.4%
Henry Colombi pass incomplete to Taylor Compton, broken up by JL SkinnerSimilar
Q4 13:27
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
0.4%
Henry Colombi pass incomplete to Taylor ComptonSimilar
Q4 13:27
3RD & 10
OPP 20
-5
0.4%
UTAH ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BoiSt 25Similar
Q4 13:27
3RD & 15
OPP 25
+4
0.4%
Henry Colombi pass intercepted Evan Tyler return for 4 yds to the BoiSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
0.4%
Andrew Van Buren run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 13Similar
Q4 10:58
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+3
0.4%
Andrew Van Buren run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 16Similar
Q4 10:58
3RD & 4
OWN 16
+5
0.4%
Andrew Van Buren run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
0.4%
UTAH ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Christopher Unga) to the BoiSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
0.3%
Andrew Van Buren run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 40Similar
Q4 10:58
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+1
0.3%
Andrew Van Buren run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 41Similar
Q4 10:58
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+3
0.3%
Andrew Van Buren run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 44Similar
Q4 10:58
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
0.4%
Joel Velazquez punt for 40 yds, downed at the UthSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 23TD
14 plays · 84 yds · 4:580% → 0%
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
0.2%
Riley Burt run for 6 yds to the UthSt 22Similar
Q4 6:38
2ND & 4
OWN 22
-3
0.2%
Henry Colombi sacked by Demitri Washington for a loss of 3 yards to the UthSt 19Similar
Q4 6:38
3RD & 7
OWN 19
+10
0.2%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Derek Wright for 10 yds to the UthSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
0.2%
Henry Colombi run for 4 yds to the UthSt 33Similar
Q4 6:38
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+1
0.2%
Riley Burt run for 1 yd to the UthSt 34Similar
Q4 6:38
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+28
0.2%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Derek Wright for 28 yds to the BoiSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+18
0.2%
Henry Colombi run for 18 yds to the BoiSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
0.2%
Riley Burt run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 18Similar
Q4 6:38
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+4
0.2%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Riley Burt for 4 yds to the BoiSt 14Similar
Q4 6:38
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+8
0.2%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Derek Wright for 8 yds to the BoiSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
0.2%
Riley Burt run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 2Similar
Q4 1:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
0.1%
Henry Colombi pass incomplete to Sean Carter, broken up by Tyric LeBeaufSimilar
Q4 1:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.1%
Henry Colombi run for 2 yds for a TD (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 24END OF GAME
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
0.1%
Danny Smith run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 31Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 29Similar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:19
Jaylon Henderson pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 14 yds for a TD (Eric Sachse KICK)
-10.9
TD · Q2 11:50
George Holani run for 1 yd for a TD (Eric Sachse KICK)
-9.4
TD · Q2 6:11
Robert Mahone run for 1 yd for a TD (Eric Sachse KICK)
-7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com