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BOIS

Boise State 31 at Colorado State 24

CSU
2019 · Week 14 · Nov 29, 2019 · Canvas Stadium
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Win probability · CSU
modelCSU aheadBOIS aheadconfidence bandkey playCSU scoreBOIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:13 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 34
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:47: Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Warren Jackson for 16 yds for a TD (Braxton Davis KICK) — CSU win probability +10.2 pts (now 33%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:16: Jaylon Henderson pass complete to Garrett Collingham for 3 yds for a TD (Eric Sachse KICK) — BOIS win probability +8.5 pts (now 81%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:49: Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Trey McBride for 28 yds for a TD (Braxton Davis KICK) — CSU win probability +20.4 pts (now 43%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q4 11:26: Jaylon Henderson run for 1 yd for a TD (Eric Sachse KICK) — BOIS win probability +15.7 pts (now 86%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 8:02: Braxton Davis 34 yd FG GOOD — CSU win probability +6.2 pts (now 26%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5BOIS made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q2 10:55CSU 4th & 2 at BOIS 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    23.8%−1.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    23.2%−1.8
    average punt
  2. Q2 8:41BOIS 4th & 1 at CSU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    69.0%−1.2
    54% to make
    Punt
    68.4%−1.8
    average punt
  3. Q2 8:41BOIS 4th & 1 at CSU 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    69.0%−1.3
    90% to make
    Punt
    65.7%−4.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:18BOIS 4th & 6 at CSU 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.1%−1.2
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.3%
    72% to make
    Punt
    74.6%−3.7
    average punt
  5. Q3 15:00BOIS 4th & 6 at BOIS 39, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.6%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.8%
    average punt
  6. Q3 9:44CSU 4th & 2 at BOIS 41, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    19.4%−2.0
    32% to make
    Punt
    19.9%−1.6
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:39BOIS 4th & 15 at CSU 48, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.5%−1.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:43BOIS 4th & 5 at CSU 49, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.4%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.6%
    average punt
  9. Q4 15:00CSU 4th & 7 at CSU 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.1%−0.7
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.8%
    average punt
  10. Q4 8:02CSU 4th & 5 at BOIS 16, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.5%−1.4
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.9%
    81% to make
    Punt
    7.5%−7.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:54BOIS 4th & 6 at midfield, up 7
    Close callPunted · 82.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.2%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:53CSU 4th & 14 at BOIS 45, down 7
    Close callPunted · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.0%
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    14.6%−0.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    14.4%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BOIS made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 11:12CSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:34BOIS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:55BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:47CSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:16BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:49CSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:26BOIS Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.5%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CSUDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:4818% → 22%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
18.4%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Warren Jackson for 9 yds to the ColSt 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
18.4%
Marcus McElroy run for 4 yds to the ColSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
18.4%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Nate Craig-Myers for 4 yds to the ColSt 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+14
18.4%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Trey McBride for 14 yds to the BoiSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+23
18.4%
Marcus McElroy run for 23 yds to the BoiSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
18.4%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Warren JacksonSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+15
18.4%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Warren Jackson for 15 yds to the BoiSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
18.4%
Jaylen Thomas run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 3Similar
Q1 11:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
21.6%
Jaylen Thomas run for 3 yds for a TD (Braxton Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 2TD
19 plays · 73 yds · 8:3279% → 77%
Q1 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
21.3%
George Holani run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 33Similar
Q1 11:06
2ND & 4
OWN 33
-7
21.1%
Jaylon Henderson pass complete to George Holani for 3 yds to the BoiSt 36 BOISE ST Penalty, illegal block (-10 Yards) to the BoiSt 26Similar
Q1 11:06
2ND & 11
OWN 26
0
21.3%
Jaylon Henderson pass incomplete to Khalil ShakirSimilar
Q1 11:06
3RD & 11
OWN 26
+9
21.4%
Jaylon Henderson pass complete to Akilian Butler for 9 yds to the BoiSt 35Similar
Q1 11:06
4TH & 2
OWN 35
+5
21.3%
VELAZQUEZ, Joel punt 39 yards to the CSU26, fair catch by WRIGHT, Dante, PENALTY CSU roughing the kicker (GOLDEN, Troy) 5 yards to the BSU40, 1ST DOWN BSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
21.1%
George Holani run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 44Similar
Q1 11:06
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+7
21.0%
Jaylon Henderson pass complete to CT Thomas for 7 yds to the ColSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
21.0%
Jaylon Henderson pass complete to CT Thomas for 11 yds to the ColSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
21.0%
George Holani run for 2 yds to the ColSt 36Similar
Q1 11:06
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+8
21.0%
George Holani run for 8 yds to the ColSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
20.9%
Jaylon Henderson pass complete to John Bates for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 29Similar
Q1 11:06
2ND & 11
OPP 29
+18
20.9%
Jaylon Henderson pass complete to John Hightower for 18 yds to the ColSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
20.9%
Andrew Van Buren run for 3 yds to the ColSt 8Similar
Q1 11:06
2ND & 7
OPP 8
0
20.9%
Jaylon Henderson pass incomplete to CT ThomasSimilar
Q1 11:06
3RD & 7
OPP 8
+7
21.0%
Jaylon Henderson run for 7 yds to the ColSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
20.9%
George Holani run for no gain to the ColSt 1Similar
Q1 11:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
20.9%
George Holani run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 2Similar
Q1 2:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
23.5%
Garrett Collingham run for 2 yds for a TD (Eric Sachse KICK) COLORADO ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 3INT
3 plays · -5 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
25.1%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 20Similar
Q1 2:34
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+15
25.0%
Patrick O'Brien pass intercepted Tyreque Jones return for 15 yds to the ColSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 4TD
5 plays · 20 yds · 2:3177% → 79%
Q1 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-2
23.2%
George Holani run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 22Similar
Q1 2:26
2ND & 12
OPP 22
+14
23.3%
Jaylon Henderson pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 14 yds to the ColSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
23.2%
Khalil Shakir run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 9Similar
Q1 2:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
23.2%
George Holani run for 4 yds to the ColSt 5Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
20.8%
Jaylon Henderson pass complete to CT Thomas for 5 yds for a TD (Eric Sachse KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 5TD
15 plays · 81 yds · 6:0422% → 33%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
21.9%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Jaylen ThomasSimilar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+6
21.8%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Brenden Fulton for 6 yds to the ColSt 25Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+9
21.7%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Warren Jackson for 9 yds to the ColSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+25
22.1%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Jaylen Thomas for 25 yds to the BoiSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
23.1%
Marcus McElroy run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 35Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+3
23.6%
Patrick O'Brien run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 32Similar
Q2 11:40
3RD & 1
OPP 32
-1
23.7%
Dante Wright run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 33Similar
Q2 10:55
4TH & 2
OPP 33
+4
23.3%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Trey McBride for 4 yds to the BoiSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
24.8%
Jaylen Thomas run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 9
OPP 28
-5
24.8%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Nate Craig-Myers for a loss of 5 yards to the BoiSt 33Similar
Q2 10:55
3RD & 14
OPP 33
+17
23.0%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Trey McBride for 17 yds to the BoiSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
33.3%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Warren Jackson for 16 yds for a TD (Braxton Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 6TD
15 plays · 79 yds · 7:2571% → 81%
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
29.0%
John Hightower run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 27Similar
Q2 8:41
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+23
28.5%
Jaylon Henderson pass complete to John Hightower for 23 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
50
+1
27.1%
Jaylon Henderson run for 1 yd to the ColSt 49Similar
Q2 8:41
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+9
27.1%
Jaylon Henderson pass complete to Akilian Butler for 9 yds to the ColSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
27.1%
Jaylon Henderson pass incomplete to John HightowerSimilar
Q2 8:41
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+5
27.1%
Jaylon Henderson pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 5 yds to the ColSt 35Similar
Q2 8:41
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+4
27.3%
Jaylon Henderson pass complete to George Holani for 4 yds to the ColSt 31Similar
Q2 8:41
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+4
27.9%
Jaylon Henderson run for 4 yds to the ColSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+10
26.3%
CT Thomas run for 10 yds to the ColSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
26.3%
Khalil Shakir run for 2 yds to the ColSt 15Similar
Q2 8:41
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+5
26.3%
George Holani run for 5 yds to the ColSt 10Similar
Q2 8:41
3RD & 3
OPP 10
+2
27.0%
Jaylon Henderson pass complete to John Hightower for 2 yds to the ColSt 8Similar
Q2 8:41
4TH & 1
OPP 8
+5
27.9%
Jaylon Henderson run for 5 yds to the ColSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
19.4%
Jaylon Henderson pass complete to Garrett Collingham for 3 yds for a TD (Eric Sachse KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 7INT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0023% → 22%
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
22.9%
Patrick O'Brien run for 5 yds to the ColSt 24Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 5
OWN 24
0
23.2%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to EJ Scott, broken up by Avery WilliamsSimilar
Q2 1:12
3RD & 5
OWN 24
0
22.2%
Patrick O'Brien pass intercepted Curtis Weaver return for no gain to the ColSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 8FG
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:2381% → 81%
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
19.3%
Jaylon Henderson pass complete to John Hightower for 4 yds to the ColSt 22Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 6
OPP 22
0
19.5%
Jaylon Henderson pass incomplete to John BatesSimilar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 6
OPP 22
0
19.7%
Jaylon Henderson pass incomplete to George HolaniSimilar
Q2 0:18
4TH & 6
OPP 22
+39
19.5%
Eric Sachse 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 9END OF HALF
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
20.6%
Jaylen Thomas run for 6 yds to the ColSt 41Similar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 4
OWN 41
0
21.6%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Warren JacksonSimilar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+6
20.9%
Jaylen Thomas run for 6 yds to the ColSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0080% → 79%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
20.4%
George Holani run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+9
20.5%
Jaylon Henderson pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 9 yds to the BoiSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
20.0%
Jaylon Henderson pass incomplete to John Hightower, broken up by Tron FolsomSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+7
20.2%
Jaylon Henderson pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 7 yds to the BoiSt 42Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 42
-3
19.9%
Jaylon Henderson sacked by Emmanuel Jones for a loss of 3 yards to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 39
+14
20.6%
Joel Velazquez punt for 40 yds , Dante Wright returns for 14 yds to the ColSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 11DOWNS
8 plays · 23 yds · 2:3120% → 21%
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
19.8%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Warren JacksonSimilar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+8
19.6%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Trey McBride for 8 yds to the ColSt 43Similar
Q3 12:15
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+8
20.4%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Warren Jackson for 8 yds to the BoiSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
21.3%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Nate Craig-MyersSimilar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+9
21.0%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Trey McBride for 9 yds to the BoiSt 40Similar
Q3 12:15
3RD & 1
OPP 40
-1
21.3%
Marcus McElroy run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 41Similar
Q3 9:44
4TH & 2
OPP 41
-1
21.4%
Jaylen Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 0:0080% → 79%
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
19.6%
Jaylon Henderson pass incomplete to John Hightower, broken up by Marshaun CameronSimilar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-9
19.8%
Jaylon Henderson sacked by Cam'ron Carter for a loss of 9 yards to the BoiSt 33Similar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 19
OWN 33
+24
21.5%
Jaylon Henderson pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 24 yds to the ColSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
19.5%
Khalil Shakir run for no gain to the ColSt 43Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
19.5%
Jaylon Henderson pass incomplete to John HightowerSimilar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 10
OPP 43
0
19.7%
Jaylon Henderson pass incomplete to Khalil Shakir, broken up by Brandon CrossleySimilar
Q3 9:39
4TH & 10
OPP 43
-5
20.6%
BOISE ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 48Similar
Q3 9:39
4TH & 15
OPP 48
0
21.4%
Joel Velazquez punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 13TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 3:3020% → 43%
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
20.3%
Jaylen Thomas run for 1 yd to the ColSt 21Similar
Q3 7:19
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+8
20.3%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Dante Wright for 8 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q3 7:19
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+3
20.3%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Warren Jackson for 3 yds to the ColSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
20.8%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Trey McBride for 8 yds to the ColSt 40Similar
Q3 7:19
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+12
21.9%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Trey McBride for 12 yds to the BoiSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
22.7%
Jaylen Thomas run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 45Similar
Q3 7:19
2ND & 7
OPP 45
0
22.7%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Dante WrightSimilar
Q3 7:19
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+17
22.3%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Warren Jackson for 17 yds to the BoiSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
42.6%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Trey McBride for 28 yds for a TD (Braxton Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q3 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
31.9%
George Holani run for no gain to the BoiSt 35Similar
Q3 3:43
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
32.4%
HENDERSON, Jaylon pass complete to SHAKIR, Khalil for 1 yard to the BSU36 (CARTER, Cam'ron;CAMERON, Marshaun), PENALTY CSU offside (HUBBARD, Ellison) 5 yards to the BSU40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:43
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+4
30.2%
Jaylon Henderson pass complete to Octavius Evans for 4 yds to the BoiSt 44Similar
Q3 3:43
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+2
30.4%
George Holani run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
30.1%
George Holani run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 3:43
2ND & 6
50
+1
29.5%
George Holani run for 1 yd to the ColSt 49Similar
Q3 3:43
3RD & 5
OPP 49
0
30.0%
Jaylon Henderson pass incomplete to Akilian Butler, broken up by Logan StewartSimilar
Q3 3:43
4TH & 5
OPP 49
0
32.1%
Joel Velazquez punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
37.4%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (Barry Wesley) to the ColSt 15Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+22
37.2%
Patrick O'Brien run for 7 yds to the ColSt 22 for a 1ST down BOISE ST Penalty, personal foul (Riley Whimpey) to the ColSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
38.6%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Warren Jackson, broken up by Jalen WalkerSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
38.4%
Marcus McElroy run for 3 yds to the ColSt 40Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
38.0%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to EJ ScottSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
37.0%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Avery Williams at the BoiSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 16TD
5 plays · 76 yds · 2:1965% → 86%
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
34.6%
Jaylon Henderson pass complete to John Hightower for 2 yds to the BoiSt 26Similar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+35
34.7%
Jaylon Henderson pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 35 yds to the ColSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+23
31.0%
Jaylon Henderson pass complete to CT Thomas for 23 yds to the ColSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+15
29.5%
Andrew Van Buren run for 15 yds to the ColSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
13.8%
Jaylon Henderson run for 1 yd for a TD (Eric Sachse KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 17FG
10 plays · 56 yds · 3:1816% → 26%
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+14
16.2%
Dante Wright run for 14 yds to the ColSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
17.1%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Warren Jackson for 7 yds to the ColSt 49Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+14
18.1%
Jaylen Thomas run for 14 yds to the BoiSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
18.6%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Trey McBride for 1 yd to the BoiSt 36Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+15
18.4%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Jaylen Thomas for 15 yds to the BoiSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
21.0%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Nate Craig-MyersSimilar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+5
20.7%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Jaylen Thomas for 5 yds to the BoiSt 16Similar
Q4 11:20
3RD & 5
OPP 16
0
19.3%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Warren JacksonSimilar
Q4 8:02
4TH & 5
OPP 16
+34
25.5%
Braxton Davis 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 18 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
18.0%
Jaylon Henderson pass complete to Akilian Butler for 7 yds to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q4 7:54
2ND & 3
OWN 39
0
16.4%
George Holani run for no gain to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q4 7:54
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+7
16.7%
Jaylon Henderson pass complete to CT Thomas for 7 yds to the BoiSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
16.1%
George Holani run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q4 7:54
2ND & 7
OWN 49
-10
15.9%
HENDERSON, Jaylon pass complete to SHAKIR, Khalil for 9 yards to the CSU42 (BAILEY, Keevan), PENALTY BSU holding (BUTLER, Akilian) 10 yards to the BSU39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:54
2ND & 17
OWN 39
+6
17.2%
Jaylon Henderson run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 45Similar
Q4 7:54
3RD & 11
OWN 45
+10
16.9%
Jaylon Henderson pass complete to George Holani for 10 yds to the ColSt 45Similar
Q4 7:54
4TH & 1
OPP 45
-5
17.8%
BOISE ST Penalty, false start (John Ojukwu) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 7:54
4TH & 6
50
0
18.2%
Joel Velazquez punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ColSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 37 yds · 0:0020% → 19%
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+41
19.6%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Dante Wright for 41 yds to the BoiSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
25.3%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Nate Craig-Myers for 5 yds to the BoiSt 36Similar
Q4 3:53
2ND & 5
OPP 36
-9
25.9%
Patrick O'Brien sacked by David Moa for a loss of 9 yards to the BoiSt 45Similar
Q4 3:53
3RD & 14
OPP 45
0
20.4%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Trey McBrideSimilar
Q4 3:53
4TH & 14
OPP 45
0
18.7%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 20END OF GAME
9 plays · 14 yds · 0:4692% → 95%
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
8.5%
George Holani run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 21Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+3
6.0%
Jaylon Henderson run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 24Similar
Q4 1:49
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+9
5.9%
Jaylon Henderson pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 9 yds to the BoiSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
5.3%
George Holani run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 37Similar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 6
OWN 37
-1
5.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 36Similar
Q4 1:13
3RD & 7
OWN 36
-2
5.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:49
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Trey McBride for 28 yds for a TD (Braxton Davis KICK)
+20.4
TD · Q4 11:26
Jaylon Henderson run for 1 yd for a TD (Eric Sachse KICK)
-15.7
TD · Q2 8:47
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Warren Jackson for 16 yds for a TD (Braxton Davis KICK)
+10.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com