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BOIS

Boise State 55 at Northern Illinois 7

NIU
2015 · San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl · Dec 23, 2015 · Qualcomm Stadium
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Win probability · NIU
modelNIU aheadBOIS aheadconfidence bandkey playNIU scoreBOIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:59 · Sean Wale punt for 30 yds, downed at the NoIll 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+59.5+29.80−29.8−59.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 113Home team on offense−29.4Score differential−13.9Pregame prior−8.7Garbage-time factor−5.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:38: Brett Rypien pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for 4 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK) — BOIS win probability +2.3 pts (now 71%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 3:28: Jeremy McNichols run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK) — BOIS win probability +5.6 pts (now 77%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 9:32: Tyler Rausa kickoff for 61 yds , Aregeros Turner return for 96 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK) — NIU win probability +5.0 pts (now 21%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:51: Brett Rypien pass complete to Chaz Anderson for 16 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK) — BOIS win probability +5.3 pts (now 90%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:29: Brett Rypien pass complete to Alec Dhaenens for 18 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK) — BOIS win probability +0.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NIU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9BOIS made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 12:00NIU 4th & 1 at NIU 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    31.5%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:04NIU 4th & 13 at NIU 16, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−1.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:40NIU 4th & 7 at NIU 24, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.8%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:15BOIS 4th & 2 at NIU 11, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    81.6%−0.5
    87% to make
    Punt
    78.8%−3.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:44BOIS 4th & 3 at NIU 3, up 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 84.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.8%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.2%−0.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    81.2%−3.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:25NIU 4th & 4 at NIU 21, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.9%−0.5
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.4%
    average punt
  7. Q3 14:13NIU 4th & 6 at NIU 29, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.6%−0.6
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:59BOIS 4th & 10 at BOIS 43, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.4%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:19NIU 4th & 11 at NIU 26, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.1%−1.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:30BOIS 4th & 7 at NIU 10, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.7%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.9%
    88% to make
    Punt
    92.3%−2.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:59NIU 4th & 19 at NIU 16, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:58NIU 4th & 4 at NIU 20, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:05NIU 4th & 9 at NIU 26, down 48
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:55BOIS 4th & 1 at BOIS 34, up 48
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.7%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:10BOIS 4th & 1 at NIU 32, up 48
    Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%
    51% to make
    Punt
    99.7%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NIU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1BOIS made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 14:02BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:38BOIS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:28BOIS Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:32NIU Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:51BOIS Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:29BOIS Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:52BOIS Touchdown, up 40 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:52BOIS Touchdown, up 47 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BOISDrive 1TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:5368% → 68%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
32.1%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Holden Huff for 7 yds to the BoiSt 32Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+39
32.2%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for 39 yds to the NoIll 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
32.1%
Jeremy McNichols run for 29 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 2FUMBLE
14 plays · 42 yds · 3:5932% → 33%
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
32.2%
Joel Bouagnon run for 5 yds to the NoIll 30Similar
Q1 13:34
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
32.3%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Juwan Brescacin for 6 yds to the NoIll 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
32.3%
Kenny Golladay run for 6 yds to the NoIll 42Similar
Q1 12:56
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+3
32.4%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 3 yds to the NoIll 45Similar
Q1 12:25
3RD & 1
OWN 45
0
32.5%
Aregeros Turner run for no gain to the NoIll 45Similar
Q1 12:00
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+4
32.4%
Joel Bouagnon run for 4 yds to the NoIll 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
32.7%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Tommylee Lewis for 11 yds to the BoiSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
32.8%
Joel Bouagnon run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 38Similar
Q1 11:03
2ND & 8
OPP 38
0
32.9%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Kenny GolladaySimilar
Q1 10:49
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+8
32.9%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Desroy Maxwell for 8 yds to the BoiSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
33.1%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Kenny GolladaySimilar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+4
33.2%
Aregeros Turner run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 26Similar
Q1 9:56
3RD & 6
OPP 26
-7
33.1%
Ryan Graham run for a loss of 7 yards to the BoiSt 33 Ryan Graham fumbled, recovered by BoiSt Tyler GraySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 3TD
7 plays · 67 yds · 2:1168% → 71%
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+23
32.3%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 23 yds to the NoIll 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+23
32.1%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for 23 yds to the NoIll 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
32.0%
Jeremy McNichols run for 2 yds to the NoIll 19Similar
Q1 8:36
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+11
31.7%
Jeremy McNichols run for 11 yds to the NoIll 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
31.8%
Jeremy McNichols run for 4 yds to the NoIll 4Similar
Q1 7:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
31.7%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Thomas SperbeckSimilar
Q1 7:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
29.3%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for 4 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:2630% → 30%
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
30.4%
Jordan Huff run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 18Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 11
OWN 18
+4
30.2%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 4 yds to the NoIll 22Similar
Q1 6:35
3RD & 7
OWN 22
-6
30.1%
Ryan Graham sacked by Elliot Hoyte and Tyler Gray for a loss of 6 yards to the NoIll 16Similar
Q1 6:04
4TH & 13
OWN 16
0
29.9%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Donte Deayon at the BoiSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 5TD
7 plays · 53 yds · 2:3271% → 77%
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
28.8%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Thomas SperbeckSimilar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+22
28.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jake Roh for 22 yds to the NoIll 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
28.6%
Kelsey Young run for 3 yds to the NoIll 28Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+4
28.4%
Kelsey Young run for 4 yds to the NoIll 24Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+21
28.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 21 yds to the NoIll 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
28.2%
Kelsey Young run for 2 yds to the NoIll 1Similar
Q1 3:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
22.7%
Jeremy McNichols run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:4024% → 23%
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
23.7%
Ryan Graham run for 3 yds to the NoIll 24Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 7
OWN 24
0
23.5%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Aregeros TurnerSimilar
Q1 2:50
3RD & 7
OWN 24
0
23.3%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Kenny GolladaySimilar
Q1 2:40
4TH & 7
OWN 24
0
23.2%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BoiSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 7DOWNS
14 plays · 49 yds · 4:1978% → 81%
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
21.7%
McNichols, Jeremy rush for loss of 3 yards to the BOISEST38, PENALTY BOISEST substitution infraction 5 yards to the BOISEST36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:15
1ST & 15
OWN 36
+9
21.6%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 9 yds to the BoiSt 45Similar
Q1 1:41
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
21.0%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Holden HuffSimilar
Q1 1:35
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+11
21.2%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 11 yds to the NoIll 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+11
20.6%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 11 yds to the NoIll 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
20.4%
Jeremy McNichols run for 1 yd to the NoIll 32Similar
Q1 0:24
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+13
20.1%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 13 yds to the NoIll 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
19.5%
Shane Williams-Rhodes pass incomplete to A.J. RichardsonSimilar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+2
19.6%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 2 yds to the NoIll 17Similar
Q2 14:16
3RD & 8
OPP 17
+6
19.3%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jake Roh for 6 yds to the NoIll 11Similar
Q2 13:39
4TH & 2
OPP 11
-5
19.3%
BOISE ST Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the NoIll 16Similar
Q2 13:22
4TH & 7
OPP 16
+5
19.3%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the NoIll 11Similar
Q2 13:15
4TH & 2
OPP 11
+1
19.0%
Jeremy McNichols run for 1 yd to the NoIll 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 8FUMBLE
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:2020% → 20%
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-1
20.4%
Ryan Graham run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 10Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 11
OWN 10
+5
20.2%
Aregeros Turner run for 5 yds to the NoIll 15 Aregeros Turner fumbled, forced by Tyler Gray, recovered by BoiSt Jonathan MoxeySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 9FG
8 plays · 12 yds · 2:5482% → 85%
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
17.7%
Jeremy McNichols run for 2 yds to the NoIll 13Similar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+6
17.3%
Jeremy McNichols run for 6 yds to the NoIll 7Similar
Q2 11:35
3RD & 2
OPP 7
+2
17.3%
Jeremy McNichols run for 2 yds to the NoIll 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-10
16.7%
McNichols, Jeremy rush for loss of 6 yards to the NORTHERNIL11, PENALTY BOISEST holding (Averill, Travis) 10 yards to the NORTHERNIL15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
+7
16.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Chaz Anderson for 7 yds to the NoIll 8Similar
Q2 10:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
16.0%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Jake HardeeSimilar
Q2 10:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
16.2%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jake Roh for 5 yds to the NoIll 3Similar
Q2 9:44
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
15.5%
Tyler Rausa 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 11FUMBLE
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2980% → 80%
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
19.7%
Jeremy McNichols run for 8 yds to the BoiSt 35Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+5
19.5%
Jeremy McNichols run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
18.7%
Jeremy McNichols run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 41Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 9
OWN 41
-10
19.7%
Brett Rypien sacked by Austin Smaha for a loss of 10 yards to the BoiSt 31 Brett Rypien fumbled, forced by Austin Smaha, recovered by NoIll Austin Smaha , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 12FUMBLE
7 plays · -9 yds · 2:0825% → 24%
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
24.5%
Jordan Huff run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 24Similar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+3
24.5%
Jordan Huff run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
24.4%
Jordan Huff run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 19Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+3
24.3%
Ryan Graham sacked by Tyler Horn for a loss of 12 yards to the BoiSt 31 for a 1ST down BOISE ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Tyler Horn) to the BoiSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-2
24.1%
Joel Bouagnon run for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 18Similar
Q2 5:48
2ND & 12
OPP 18
-5
23.7%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, False Start (Ryan Stendler) to the BoiSt 23Similar
Q2 5:26
2ND & 17
OPP 23
-17
23.5%
Ryan Graham sacked by Kamalei Correa for a loss of 17 yards to the BoiSt 40 Ryan Graham fumbled, forced by Kamalei Correa, recovered by BoiSt Tyler Gray , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 13TD
9 plays · 60 yds · 3:2882% → 90%
Q2 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
18.0%
Jeremy McNichols run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 47Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+7
17.6%
Jeremy McNichols run for 7 yds to the NoIll 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+22
17.4%
Shane Williams-Rhodes run for 22 yds to the NoIll 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
16.7%
Thomas Sperbeck run for 1 yd to the NoIll 23Similar
Q2 2:58
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+8
16.2%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 8 yds to the NoIll 15Similar
Q2 2:39
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+1
15.9%
Jeremy McNichols run for 1 yd to the NoIll 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-2
15.4%
Ryan Wolpin run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 16Similar
Q2 1:51
2ND & 12
OPP 16
+16
10.1%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Chaz Anderson for 16 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 0:2014% → 14%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
13.5%
Joel Bouagnon run for 2 yds to the NoIll 17Similar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+3
13.5%
Joel Bouagnon run for 3 yds to the NoIll 20Similar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 5
OWN 20
+1
14.7%
Joel Bouagnon run for 1 yd to the NoIll 21Similar
Q2 1:25
4TH & 4
OWN 21
0
13.8%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Donte Deayon at the BoiSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 15INT
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:0288% → 90%
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
11.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 11 yds to the NoIll 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
11.1%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 9 yds to the NoIll 35Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+5
10.3%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Chaz Anderson for 5 yds to the NoIll 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-7
9.8%
Brett Rypien sacked by Jamaal Payton for a loss of 7 yards to the NoIll 37 BOISE ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the NoIll 37Similar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 17
OPP 37
+27
9.6%
Brett Rypien pass intercepted Mycial Allen return for 27 yds to the NoIll 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
13.8%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Juwan Brescacin for 3 yds to the NoIll 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:4412% → 12%
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
12.2%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Kenny GolladaySimilar
Q3 14:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
12.1%
Ryan Graham run for 4 yds to the NoIll 29Similar
Q3 14:23
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
12.0%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Desroy MaxwellSimilar
Q3 14:13
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
11.7%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 41 yds , Donte Deayon returns for no gain to the BoiSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:0691% → 91%
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
9.5%
Jeremy McNichols run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 31Similar
Q3 13:38
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+12
9.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for 12 yds to the BoiSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
8.7%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Chaz AndersonSimilar
Q3 13:11
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
8.6%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Chaz AndersonSimilar
Q3 13:06
3RD & 10
OWN 43
0
9.0%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Shane Williams-RhodesSimilar
Q3 12:59
4TH & 10
OWN 43
0
9.2%
Sean Wale punt for 30 yds, downed at the NoIll 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:319% → 9%
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
9.2%
Kenny Golladay run for 4 yds to the NoIll 31Similar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 6
OWN 31
0
9.3%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Kenny GolladaySimilar
Q3 12:28
3RD & 6
OWN 31
-5
9.2%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, False Start (Tommylee Lewis) to the NoIll 26Similar
Q3 12:25
3RD & 11
OWN 26
0
8.9%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Kenny GolladaySimilar
Q3 12:19
4TH & 11
OWN 26
0
8.8%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Donte Deayon at the BoiSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 20FG
12 plays · 51 yds · 4:3993% → 96%
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
7.3%
Kelsey Young run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 40Similar
Q3 11:44
2ND & 9
OWN 40
0
7.2%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Holden HuffSimilar
Q3 11:40
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+12
7.3%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 12 yds to the NoIll 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
6.9%
Kelsey Young run for 4 yds to the NoIll 44Similar
Q3 10:37
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+10
6.6%
Shane Williams-Rhodes run for 10 yds to the NoIll 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
6.3%
Kelsey Young run for 4 yds to the NoIll 30Similar
Q3 9:33
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+6
5.1%
Kelsey Young run for 6 yds to the NoIll 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+11
4.9%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 11 yds to the NoIll 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
4.8%
Shane Williams-Rhodes run for 2 yds to the NoIll 11Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+1
4.7%
Jeremy McNichols run for 1 yd to the NoIll 10Similar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 7
OPP 10
0
4.6%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Thomas SperbeckSimilar
Q3 7:30
4TH & 7
OPP 10
+27
4.2%
Tyler Rausa 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:154% → 4%
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
4.3%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Juwan Brescacin for 3 yds to the NoIll 28Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+17
4.3%
Jordan Huff run for 2 yds to the NoIll 30 for a 1ST down BOISE ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Jabril Frazier) to the NoIll 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
4.7%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Kenny GolladaySimilar
Q3 6:46
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-6
4.4%
Kenny Golladay run for a loss of 6 yards to the NoIll 39Similar
Q3 6:10
3RD & 16
OWN 39
-8
4.1%
Ryan Graham sacked by Kamalei Correa for a loss of 8 yards to the NoIll 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 22TD
6 plays · 62 yds · 1:5698% → 99%
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
2.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jake Roh for 5 yds to the BoiSt 43Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+3
2.3%
Jeremy McNichols run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 46Similar
Q3 4:24
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+18
1.9%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 18 yds to the NoIll 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+18
2.0%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Chaz Anderson for 18 yds to the NoIll 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
1.9%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Thomas SperbeckSimilar
Q3 3:29
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+18
1.0%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Alec Dhaenens for 18 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:252% → 1%
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
2.2%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Kenny GolladaySimilar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
2.1%
Kenny Golladay run for 2 yds to the NoIll 27Similar
Q3 2:25
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-11
1.9%
Ryan Graham sacked by Darren Lee for a loss of 11 yards to the NoIll 16Similar
Q3 1:59
4TH & 19
OWN 16
+1
0.9%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 46 yds , Donte Deayon returns for 1 yd to the BoiSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 24TD
5 plays · 61 yds · 1:5899% → 99%
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
0.8%
Kelsey Young run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 43Similar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+13
0.8%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 13 yds to the NoIll 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
0.7%
Kelsey Young run for 2 yds to the NoIll 42Similar
Q3 0:02
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+18
0.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for 18 yds to the NoIll 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
0.6%
Kelsey Young run for 24 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:350% → 0%
Q4 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
0.4%
Ryan Graham run for 6 yds to the NoIll 20Similar
Q4 14:17
2ND & 4
OWN 20
0
0.4%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Kenny GolladaySimilar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 4
OWN 20
0
0.4%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Joel BouagnonSimilar
Q4 13:58
4TH & 4
OWN 20
+1
0.4%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 40 yds , Donte Deayon returns for 1 yd to the BoiSt 21 BOISE ST Penalty, Illegal Block (Tyler Horton) to the BoiSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 26TD
9 plays · 69 yds · 3:5899% → 100%
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+49
0.6%
Ryan Wolpin run for 49 yds to the NoIll 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
0.5%
BOISE ST Penalty, False Start (Kellen Buhr) to the NoIll 25Similar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 15
OPP 25
+9
0.5%
Thomas Stuart run for 9 yds to the NoIll 16Similar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+4
0.4%
Thomas Stuart run for 4 yds to the NoIll 12Similar
Q4 11:44
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+5
0.4%
Ryan Wolpin run for 5 yds to the NoIll 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
0.3%
Ryan Wolpin run for 2 yds to the NoIll 5Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
0.3%
Ryan Wolpin run for 4 yds to the NoIll 1Similar
Q4 9:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.3%
Thomas Stuart run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:370% → 0%
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
0.1%
Joel Bouagnon run for 1 yd to the NoIll 26Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
0.1%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Aregeros TurnerSimilar
Q4 9:15
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
0.1%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Joel BouagnonSimilar
Q4 9:05
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+48
0.1%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 48 yds , Kelsey Young returns for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 28END OF GAME
14 plays · 45 yds · 8:48100% → 100%
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
0.3%
Ryan Wolpin run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 29Similar
Q4 8:18
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
0.3%
Ryan Wolpin run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 30Similar
Q4 7:31
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
0.3%
Ryan Wolpin run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 34Similar
Q4 6:55
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
0.3%
Thomas Stuart run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
0.2%
Ryan Wolpin run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 40Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+5
0.2%
Ryan Wolpin run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 45Similar
Q4 4:45
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+3
0.2%
Thomas Stuart run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
0.2%
Ryan Wolpin run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q4 3:27
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+5
0.1%
Wolpin, Ryan rush for no gain to the BOISEST49, PENALTY NORTHERNIL neutral zone infraction 5 yards to the NORTHERNIL46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:06
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+5
0.1%
Ryan Wolpin run for 5 yds to the NoIll 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
0.1%
Ryan Wolpin run for 1 yd to the NoIll 40Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+3
0.1%
Ryan Wolpin run for 3 yds to the NoIll 37Similar
Q4 0:49
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+5
0.1%
Ryan Wolpin run for 5 yds to the NoIll 32Similar
Q4 0:10
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+2
0.1%
Alex Ogle run for 2 yds to the NoIll 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 3:28
Jeremy McNichols run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)
-5.6
TD · Q2 1:51
Brett Rypien pass complete to Chaz Anderson for 16 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)
-5.3
TD · Q2 9:32
Tyler Rausa kickoff for 61 yds , Aregeros Turner return for 96 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)
+5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com