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BOIS

Boise State 41 at Colorado State 10

CSU
2015 · Week 6 · Oct 10, 2015 · Sonny Lubick Field at Hughes Stadium
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Win probability · CSU
modelCSU aheadBOIS aheadconfidence bandkey playCSU scoreBOIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:36 · Thomas Stuart run for 3 yds to the ColSt 44 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+54.5+27.30−27.3−54.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 181Home team on offense−54.1Pregame prior−3.5Score differential−38.1Garbage-time factor−20.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−6.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−10.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:53: Jeremy McNichols run for 56 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK) — BOIS win probability +2.6 pts (now 81%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:56: Coleman Key pass complete to Joe Hansley for 13 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK) — CSU win probability +3.4 pts (now 23%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 14:16: Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 85 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK) — BOIS win probability +6.3 pts (now 84%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 0:00: Tyler Rausa 35 yd FG GOOD — BOIS win probability +3.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:50: Jeremy McNichols run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK) — BOIS win probability +6.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 11BOIS made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00CSU 4th & 5 at CSU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.8%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:08BOIS 4th & 9 at CSU 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.1%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.2%
    88% to make
    Punt
    75.5%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:08CSU 4th & 5 at CSU 30, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:53CSU 4th & 1 at BOIS 31, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    20.3%−0.7
    54% to make
    Punt
    20.0%−1.0
    average punt
  5. Q1 7:53CSU 4th & 1 at BOIS 20, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    20.4%−0.5
    75% to make
    Punt
    18.6%−2.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:16CSU 4th & 10 at CSU 25, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%−0.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:33BOIS 4th & 24 at CSU 38, up 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 84.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.6%−1.4
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.9%−0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    84.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:14BOIS 4th & 1 at CSU 32, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    82.3%−2.0
    51% to make
    Punt
    81.5%−2.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:11CSU 4th & 2 at BOIS 2, down 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.2%−0.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    14.6%−3.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:11BOIS 4th & 5 at BOIS 46, up 14
    Close callPunted · 81.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.2%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:54CSU 4th & 2 at CSU 21, down 14
    Close callPunted · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.3%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.2%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:27BOIS 4th & 2 at BOIS 43, up 17
    Close callPunted · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.6%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:40CSU 4th & 10 at CSU 35, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.2%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.2%
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:50CSU 4th & 25 at midfield, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%−0.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:18CSU 4th & 9 at CSU 31, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:42BOIS 4th & 19 at BOIS 46, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:09CSU 4th & 3 at CSU 27, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:36BOIS 4th & 1 at CSU 47, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.6%−0.2
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:36BOIS 4th & 18 at BOIS 48, up 31
    Close callWent for it · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.6%−0.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1BOIS made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 12:10BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:53BOIS Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:56CSU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:16BOIS Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:50BOIS Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:18BOIS Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
21.0%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 4 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
21.0%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 1 yd to the ColSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
21.0%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Xavier WilliamsSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
21.0%
Hayden Hunt punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 2TD
6 plays · 72 yds · 1:3778% → 79%
Q1 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
21.6%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for 5 yds to the BoiSt 33Similar
Q1 13:47
2ND & 5
OWN 33
0
21.6%
Brett Rypien pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:09
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+16
21.9%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 16 yds to the BoiSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-2
21.8%
Jeremy McNichols run for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 47Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 12
OWN 47
+53
21.5%
Shane Williams-Rhodes pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 53 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 3FUMBLE
3 plays · -7 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-11
21.6%
Nick Stevens sacked by Chanceller James for a loss of 11 yards to the ColSt 14Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 21
OWN 14
+7
21.6%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 4 yds to the ColSt 11 Dalyn Dawkins fumbled, forced by Darian Thompson, recovered by BoiSt Tyler Horn , return for 7 yds to the ColSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 4FG
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:1879% → 78%
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
21.5%
Jeremy McNichols run for no gain to the ColSt 11Similar
Q1 11:26
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
21.5%
Brett Rypien pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:26
3RD & 10
OPP 11
+1
21.6%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for 1 yd to the ColSt 10Similar
Q1 10:08
4TH & 9
OPP 10
+27
21.8%
Tyler Rausa 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
21.7%
Coleman Key pass incomplete to Xavier Williams, broken up by Donte DeayonSimilar
Q1 10:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
21.7%
Coleman Key pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:08
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+5
21.6%
Coleman Key run for 5 yds to the ColSt 30 COLORADO ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 10:08
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
21.6%
Hayden Hunt punt for 48 yds , Donte Deayon returns for no gain to the BoiSt 30 BOISE ST Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the BoiSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 6TD
5 plays · 88 yds · 1:2978% → 81%
Q1 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+15
22.1%
RYPIEN, Brett pass incomplete to ANDERSON, Chaz, PENALTY CS pass interference (ELLIOTT, DeAndre) 15 yards to the BS27, 1ST DOWN BS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
22.0%
Jeremy McNichols run for 9 yds to the BoiSt 36Similar
Q1 9:22
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+3
21.8%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 3 yds to the BoiSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
21.8%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for 5 yds to the BoiSt 44Similar
Q1 7:53
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+56
19.1%
Jeremy McNichols run for 56 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 7TD
18 plays · 75 yds · 7:5719% → 23%
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
19.2%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 3 yds to the ColSt 28Similar
Q1 7:53
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
19.2%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 2 yds to the ColSt 30Similar
Q1 7:53
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+12
19.2%
Coleman Key pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 12 yds to the ColSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
19.5%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 4 yds to the ColSt 46Similar
Q1 7:53
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+14
19.5%
Coleman Key run for 14 yds to the BoiSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
19.6%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 38Similar
Q1 7:53
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+3
19.6%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 35Similar
Q1 7:53
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+4
19.6%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 31Similar
Q1 7:53
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+2
19.4%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
19.8%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q1 7:53
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+2
19.8%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 26Similar
Q1 7:53
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+6
19.6%
Coleman Key run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 20Similar
Q1 7:53
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+9
19.4%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 9 yds to the BoiSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
19.8%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 8Similar
Q1 7:53
2ND & 7
OPP 8
-5
19.8%
MATTHEWS, Izzy rush for 1 yard to the BS7 (HORTON, Tyler;WEAVER, Ben), PENALTY CS IF 5 yards to the BS13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:53
2ND & 12
OPP 13
0
19.7%
Coleman Key pass incomplete to Xavier WilliamsSimilar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 12
OPP 13
+13
23.1%
Coleman Key pass complete to Joe Hansley for 13 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 8TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:4077% → 84%
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
22.7%
McNICHOLS, J. rush for 20 yards to the BS45 (PIERRE-LOUIS, Kevin), PENALTY BS holding (AVERILL, Travis) 10 yards to the BS15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:16
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+85
16.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 85 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
17.9%
Coleman Key pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
17.9%
Coleman Key pass incomplete to Xavier Williams, broken up by Tyler GraySimilar
Q2 14:16
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
17.7%
Coleman Key pass incomplete to Xavier Williams, broken up by Jonathan MoxeySimilar
Q2 14:16
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+50
17.7%
Hayden Hunt punt for 50 yds , Donte Deayon returns for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 10MISSED FG
10 plays · 38 yds · 4:2384% → 85%
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
16.3%
Jeremy McNichols run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q2 13:56
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+7
16.2%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for 17 yds to the BoiSt 45 for a 1ST down BOISE ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the BoiSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+21
16.1%
Devan Demas run for 21 yds to the ColSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
15.7%
DEMAS, Devan rush for 1 yard to the CS43 (LOVINGOOD, Josh), PENALTY CS substitution infraction 5 yards to the CS39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:56
1ST & 5
OPP 39
+4
15.6%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 4 yds to the ColSt 35Similar
Q2 13:56
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+11
15.6%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 11 yds to the ColSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
15.6%
Devan Demas run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 25Similar
Q2 13:56
2ND & 11
OPP 25
-6
15.7%
Jeremy McNichols run for a loss of 6 yards to the ColSt 31Similar
Q2 13:56
3RD & 17
OPP 31
-7
15.9%
Brett Rypien sacked by Cory James for a loss of 7 yards to the ColSt 38Similar
Q2 9:33
4TH & 24
OPP 38
+55
14.8%
Tyler Rausa 55 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 11INT
6 plays · 34 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+23
17.6%
Deionte Gaines run for 8 yds to the BoiSt 46 for a 1ST down BOISE ST Penalty, personal foul (Joe Martarano) to the BoiSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
18.0%
COLORADO ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the BoiSt 44Similar
Q2 9:33
1ST & 15
OPP 44
+16
17.7%
Jordon Vaden run for 16 yds to the BoiSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
18.4%
Coleman Key pass incomplete to Joe HansleySimilar
Q2 9:33
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
18.2%
Coleman Key pass incomplete to Dalyn DawkinsSimilar
Q2 9:33
3RD & 10
OPP 28
0
17.9%
Coleman Key pass intercepted, touchback. Jonathan Moxey return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 12DOWNS
8 plays · 44 yds · 1:4185% → 86%
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
15.2%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 17 yds to the BoiSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
14.9%
Brett Rypien run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 44Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+15
14.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 15 yds to the ColSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
14.5%
Brett Rypien pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
14.5%
Brett Rypien pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:55
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+9
14.6%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for 9 yds to the ColSt 32Similar
Q2 6:14
4TH & 1
OPP 32
-4
14.5%
Jeremy McNichols run for a loss of 4 yards to the ColSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 13FG
7 plays · 62 yds · 2:5717% → 18%
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+35
17.1%
Joe Hansley pass complete to Kivon Cartwright for 35 yds to the BoiSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-1
18.5%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 30Similar
Q2 6:08
2ND & 11
OPP 30
+20
18.2%
Coleman Key pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 20 yds to the BoiSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
18.5%
Coleman Key run for no gain to the BoiSt 10 Coleman Key fumbled, recovered by ColSt Coleman KeySimilar
Q2 6:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
18.5%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 6Similar
Q2 6:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
18.1%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 2Similar
Q2 3:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
18.4%
Wyatt Bryan 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
17.1%
COLORADO ST Penalty, Defensive offside (Terry Jackson) to the BoiSt 30Similar
Q2 3:11
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+2
16.9%
Jeremy McNichols run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 32Similar
Q2 3:11
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+9
17.0%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Chaz Anderson for 9 yds to the BoiSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
16.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 5 yds to the BoiSt 46Similar
Q2 3:11
2ND & 5
OWN 46
0
16.4%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Shane Williams-Rhodes, broken up by Josh LovingoodSimilar
Q2 3:11
3RD & 5
OWN 46
0
16.6%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Shane Williams-Rhodes, broken up by Joe KawulokSimilar
Q2 3:11
4TH & 5
OWN 46
0
17.2%
Sean Wale punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Joe Hansley at the ColSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
16.4%
Coleman Key pass complete to Dalyn Dawkins for 1 yd to the ColSt 14Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+7
16.4%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 7 yds to the ColSt 21Similar
Q2 1:54
3RD & 2
OWN 21
0
16.6%
Coleman Key pass incomplete to Joe Hansley, broken up by Kameron MilesSimilar
Q2 1:54
4TH & 2
OWN 21
0
16.4%
Hayden Hunt punt for 46 yds, downed at the BoiSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 16FG
6 plays · 49 yds · 0:3384% → 89%
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
15.6%
Jeremy McNichols run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+8
15.1%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 8 yds to the BoiSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
14.8%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Thomas SperbeckSimilar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+35
14.9%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Chaz Anderson for 35 yds to the ColSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
14.4%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Shane Williams-RhodesSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+35
11.0%
Tyler Rausa 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 17INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
13.4%
Jeremy McNichols run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 36Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+3
13.2%
Brett Rypien pass intercepted Nick Januska return for 3 yds to the BoiSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 18INT
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q3 14:27
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
15.5%
Deionte Gaines run for 8 yds to the BoiSt 32Similar
Q3 14:27
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+1
15.9%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 31Similar
Q3 14:27
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+3
15.7%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:27
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
15.9%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for no gain to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q3 14:27
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+20
15.6%
Coleman Key pass intercepted Darian Thompson return for 20 yds to the BoiSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q3 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
12.7%
Jeremy McNichols run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 25Similar
Q3 12:27
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+10
12.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Chaz Anderson for 10 yds to the BoiSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
12.6%
Jeremy McNichols run for 8 yds to the BoiSt 43Similar
Q3 12:27
2ND & 2
OWN 43
0
12.0%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for no gain to the BoiSt 43Similar
Q3 12:27
3RD & 2
OWN 43
0
12.3%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Jake RohSimilar
Q3 12:27
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
12.8%
Sean Wale punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Joe Hansley at the ColSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
12.9%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 20Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 11
OWN 20
+10
12.8%
Coleman Key pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 10 yds to the ColSt 30Similar
Q3 10:40
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+5
13.4%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 5 yds to the ColSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
13.2%
Coleman Key pass incomplete to Rashard Higgins, broken up by Darian ThompsonSimilar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
13.0%
Coleman Key pass incomplete to Joe HansleySimilar
Q3 10:40
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
12.8%
Coleman Key pass incomplete to Jordon VadenSimilar
Q3 10:40
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
12.8%
Hayden Hunt punt for 47 yds , Donte Deayon returns for no gain to the BoiSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 21TD
11 plays · 82 yds · 3:4489% → 97%
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
11.4%
Jeremy McNichols run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 23Similar
Q3 8:34
2ND & 5
OWN 23
0
11.3%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Chaz AndersonSimilar
Q3 8:34
3RD & 5
OWN 23
+40
11.6%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for 40 yds to the ColSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
10.5%
Jeremy McNichols run for 9 yds to the ColSt 28Similar
Q3 7:18
2ND & 1
OPP 28
+12
9.2%
Jeremy McNichols run for 12 yds to the ColSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
9.2%
Jeremy McNichols run for 2 yds to the ColSt 14Similar
Q3 7:18
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+7
9.2%
Shane Williams-Rhodes run for 7 yds to the ColSt 7Similar
Q3 7:18
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+6
9.3%
Kelsey Young run for 6 yds to the ColSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
9.1%
Kelsey Young run for no gain to the ColSt 1Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
2.6%
Jeremy McNichols run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 22PUNT
10 plays · 25 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
3.7%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Kivon Cartwright for 8 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
3.7%
Izzy Matthews run for 3 yds to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
3.7%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Izzy Matthews for 1 yd to the ColSt 37Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+5
3.7%
Nick Stevens run for 5 yds to the ColSt 42Similar
Q3 4:50
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+23
3.8%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Sammie Long IV for 23 yds to the BoiSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
4.2%
Izzy Matthews run for no gain to the BoiSt 35Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-7
4.2%
Nick Stevens sacked by Tyler Gray for a loss of 7 yards to the BoiSt 42Similar
Q3 4:50
3RD & 17
OPP 42
-8
3.9%
Nick Stevens sacked by Kamalei Correa for a loss of 8 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:50
4TH & 25
50
0
3.8%
Hayden Hunt punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Shane Williams-Rhodes at the BoiSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 23TD
12 plays · 89 yds · 3:1198% → 100%
Q3 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
2.2%
Kelsey Young run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 16Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+11
2.1%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Akilian Butler for 11 yds Akilian Butler fumbled, forced by Kevin Pierre-Louis, recovered by BoiSt Rees Odhiambo for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
2.1%
Kelsey Young run for 12 yds to the BoiSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
1.9%
Kelsey Young run for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 43
0
2.0%
Brett Rypien pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 43
+5
2.0%
COLORADO ST Penalty, Defensive offside (Martavius Foster) to the BoiSt 48Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+9
2.0%
RYPIEN, Brett pass incomplete to YOUNG, Kelsey, PENALTY CS pass interference (SCOTT, Braylin) 9 yards to the CS43, 1ST DOWN BS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
1.9%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Chaz Anderson, broken up by DeAndre ElliottSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+14
1.9%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jake Roh for 14 yds to the ColSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+13
1.8%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 13 yds to the ColSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+12
1.8%
Kelsey Young run for 12 yds to the ColSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
0.4%
Brett Rypien run for 4 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
0.3%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Steven Walker for 20 yds to the ColSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-15
0.3%
COLORADO ST Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the ColSt 30Similar
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-3
0.3%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Deionte Gaines for a loss of 3 yards to the ColSt 27Similar
Q4 12:18
2ND & 13
OWN 27
+4
0.3%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Jasen Oden Jr. for 4 yds to the ColSt 31Similar
Q4 12:18
3RD & 9
OWN 31
0
0.3%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Deionte GainesSimilar
Q4 12:18
4TH & 9
OWN 31
+13
0.3%
Hayden Hunt punt for 40 yds , Shane Williams-Rhodes returns for 13 yds to the BoiSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
0.4%
Devan Demas run for 9 yds to the ColSt 49Similar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+4
0.3%
Thomas Stuart run for 4 yds to the ColSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
0.4%
Devan Demas run for 2 yds to the ColSt 43Similar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 8
OPP 43
-4
0.4%
Thomas Stuart run for a loss of 4 yards to the ColSt 47Similar
Q4 10:42
3RD & 12
OPP 47
-6
0.4%
Thomas Stuart run for a loss of 6 yards to the BoiSt 46 Thomas Stuart fumbled, recovered by BoiSt Thomas StuartSimilar
Q4 10:42
4TH & 19
OWN 46
0
0.5%
Sean Wale punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
0.2%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Jordon Vaden for 1 yd to the ColSt 21Similar
Q4 8:09
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+6
0.2%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Xavier Williams for 6 yds to the ColSt 27Similar
Q4 8:09
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
0.2%
Izzy Matthews run for no gain to the ColSt 27Similar
Q4 8:09
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
0.2%
Hayden Hunt punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Akilian Butler at the BoiSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 27DOWNS
13 plays · 13 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
0.2%
Cory Young run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 34Similar
Q4 6:36
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+6
0.2%
Cory Young run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 40Similar
Q4 6:36
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+4
0.2%
Thomas Stuart pass complete to Tanner Vallejo for 4 yds to the BoiSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
0.2%
Cory Young run for 9 yds to the ColSt 47Similar
Q4 6:36
2ND & 1
OPP 47
-5
0.2%
Thomas Stuart run for a loss of 5 yards to the BoiSt 48Similar
Q4 6:36
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+5
0.2%
Ryan Wolpin run for 5 yds to the ColSt 47Similar
Q4 6:36
4TH & 1
OPP 47
+3
0.2%
Thomas Stuart run for 3 yds to the ColSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
0.2%
Ryan Wolpin run for 2 yds to the ColSt 42Similar
Q4 6:36
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+5
0.2%
Ryan Wolpin run for 5 yds to the ColSt 37Similar
Q4 6:36
3RD & 3
OPP 37
-15
0.2%
WOLPIN, Ryan rush for 2 yards to the CS35 (THOMAS, Tre;JANUSKA, Nick), PENALTY BS personal foul (TERCEK, Andrew) 15 yards to the BS48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:36
3RD & 18
OWN 48
+5
0.2%
Ryan Wolpin run for 5 yds to the ColSt 47Similar
Q4 6:36
4TH & 13
OPP 47
-5
0.2%
BOISE ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the BoiSt 48Similar
Q4 6:36
4TH & 18
OWN 48
-2
0.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:50
Jeremy McNichols run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)
-6.5
TD · Q2 14:16
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 85 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)
-6.3
TD · Q2 14:56
Coleman Key pass complete to Joe Hansley for 13 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)
+3.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com