2015 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2015 · Albertsons Stadium
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Win probability · BOIS
modelBOIS aheadHAW aheadconfidence bandkey playBOIS scoreHAW score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:17 · Tyler Rausa 37 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 10:25: Brett Rypien pass complete to Chaz Anderson for 54 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK) — BOIS win probability +0.3 pts (now 92%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
- TD · Q1 5:11: Jeremy McNichols run for 13 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK) — BOIS win probability +1.1 pts (now 93%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
- TD · Q2 14:36: Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 21 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK) — BOIS win probability +2.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:44: Brett Rypien pass complete to Holden Huff for 24 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK) — BOIS win probability +2.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:59: Kelsey Young run for 9 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK) — BOIS win probability +0.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
BOIS made the numbers' call on 7 of 11HAW made the numbers' call on 11 of 12
- Q1 15:00HAW 4th & 8 at HAW 27, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 7.1% before the snapGo for it7.1%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.1%average punt
- Q1 14:06BOIS 4th & 1 at BOIS 34, tiedClose callPunted · 92.7% before the snapGo for it92.8%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.7%−0.1average punt
- Q1 11:28HAW 4th & 11 at HAW 13, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snapGo for it7.8%−0.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.9%average punt
- Q1 10:02BOIS 4th & 12 at HAW 45, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.2% before the snapGo for it92.2%−0.123% to convertField goal92.2%−0.125% to makePuntTheir call92.2%average punt
- Q1 8:34HAW 4th & 6 at HAW 24, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snapGo for it7.9%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.9%average punt
- Q1 5:11HAW 4th & 2 at BOIS 39, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.6%57% to convertField goal7.3%−0.336% to makePunt7.3%−0.3average punt
- Q2 14:36HAW 4th & 6 at BOIS 49, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.0% before the snapGo for it5.1%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.1%average punt
- Q2 9:44BOIS 4th & 1 at HAW 24, up 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.0%71% to convertField goal95.4%−0.568% to makePunt94.0%−1.9average punt
- Q2 9:44HAW 4th & 7 at HAW 28, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snapGo for it2.1%−0.236% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.3%average punt
- Q2 8:21BOIS 4th & 7 at BOIS 36, up 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.1% before the snapGo for it97.0%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.1%average punt
- Q2 6:46HAW 4th & 16 at HAW 19, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snapGo for it1.1%−0.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.2%average punt
- Q2 0:56HAW 4th & 5 at BOIS 39, down 42Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.7%42% to convertField goal0.7%−<0.136% to makePunt0.7%−0.1average punt
- Q3 10:08BOIS 4th & 4 at HAW 6, up 49Close callKicked a field goal · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.7%40% to convertField goalTheir call99.6%−<0.191% to makePunt99.2%−0.5average punt
- Q3 10:08HAW 4th & 8 at BOIS 35, down 52Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.3%34% to convertField goal0.3%−<0.145% to makePunt0.2%−0.1average punt
- Q3 8:29BOIS 4th & 5 at HAW 49, up 52Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.7%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.7%average punt
- Q3 5:38HAW 4th & 10 at HAW 20, down 52Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.127% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 4:49BOIS 4th & 11 at BOIS 45, up 52Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%average punt
- Q3 2:10HAW 4th & 8 at HAW 24, down 52Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 15:00BOIS 4th & 10 at HAW 39, up 52Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%30% to convertField goal99.8%−<0.136% to makePuntTheir call99.8%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 12:17BOIS 4th & 10 at HAW 19, up 52Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.127% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%77% to makePunt99.5%−0.4average punt
- Q4 11:33BOIS 4th & 6 at HAW 46, up 55Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%40% to convertField goal99.8%−0.123% to makePuntTheir call99.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 9:38HAW 4th & 12 at BOIS 48, down 55Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−0.123% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.1%average punt
- Q4 5:14BOIS 4th & 6 at HAW 31, up 55Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%40% to convertField goal99.9%−<0.154% to makePunt99.8%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BOIS made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 10:25BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.2%97% to makeGo for two92.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:11BOIS Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.5%97% to makeGo for two92.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:36BOIS Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.5%97% to makeGo for two95.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:44BOIS Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.3%97% to makeGo for two98.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:46BOIS Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.8%97% to makeGo for two98.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:59BOIS Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:04BOIS Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartHAWDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+4
92.6%
Rigoberto Sanchez punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BoiSt 14 , Donte Deayon returns for 4 yds to the BoiSt 31 BOISE ST Penalty, IB (10 Yards) to the BoiSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 2PUNT6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q1 14:06
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
92.4%
Sean Wale punt for 52 yds , Nick Nelson returns for no gain to the Hawa 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 3PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 11:28
4TH & 11
OWN 13
+11
91.8%
Rigoberto Sanchez punt for 52 yds , Donte Deayon returns for 11 yds to the BoiSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 4TD1 play · 54 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+54
92.1%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Chaz Anderson for 54 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 5INT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:008% → 8%
BOISDrive 6PUNT7 plays · 8 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
HAWDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
91.6%
HARRIS, Paul rush over right guard for 5 yards to the UH25 (DEAYON, Donte), PENALTY UH false start (PEDROZA, Q.) 5 yards to the UH15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:34
4TH & 6
OWN 24
+1
91.8%
Rigoberto Sanchez punt for 42 yds , Donte Deayon returns for 1 yd to the BoiSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 8TD6 plays · 65 yds · 2:0092% → 93%
HAWDrive 9DOWNS9 plays · 36 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
92.3%
Quinton Pedroza run for no gain to the Hawa 25 for a 1ST down BOISE ST Penalty, roughing passer (15 Yards) to the Hawa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
92.2%
Max Wittek pass complete to Dylan Collie for 5 yds to the Hawa 45Similar
Q1 5:11
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+5
92.0%
Max Wittek pass complete to Dylan Collie for 5 yds to the BoiSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-8
92.1%
Max Wittek sacked by Tyler Horn for a loss of 8 yards to the Hawa 45Similar
Q1 5:11
2ND & 18
OWN 45
+16
92.2%
Max Wittek pass complete to Makoa Camanse-Stevens for 16 yds to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q1 5:11
4TH & 2
OPP 39
0
92.1%
Max Wittek pass incomplete to Dylan Collie, broken up by Justin TaimatuiaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 10TD7 plays · 61 yds · 2:2993% → 95%
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
92.6%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Chaz Anderson for 7 yds to the BoiSt 46Similar
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+14
92.7%
RYPIEN, Brett post pass incomplete to ANDERSON, Chaz (ROGERS, Jalen), PENALTY UH pass interference (ROGERS, Jalen) 14 yards to the UH33, 1ST DOWN BSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:05
2ND & 15
OPP 38
+14
92.6%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Chaz Anderson for 14 yds to the Hawa 24Similar
Q2 14:36
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
94.9%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 21 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 11PUNT8 plays · 16 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 14:36
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+12
94.8%
Max Wittek run for no gain to the Hawa 47 Max Wittek fumbled, forced by Kamalei Correa, recovered by Hawa Max Wittek for a 1ST down , return for 12 yds to the Hawa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:36
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+9
94.7%
Max Wittek pass complete to Dylan Collie for 9 yds to the BoiSt 44Similar
Q2 14:36
3RD & 1
OPP 44
0
94.5%
Max Wittek pass incomplete to Dylan Collie, broken up by Darian ThompsonSimilar
Q2 14:36
4TH & 6
OPP 49
0
94.7%
Rigoberto Sanchez punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Donte Deayon at the BoiSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 12TD6 plays · 84 yds · 2:1595% → 98%
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+51
95.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 51 yds to the Hawa 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:59
3RD & 4
OPP 27
-1
95.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for a loss of 1 yard to the Hawa 28Similar
Q2 11:59
4TH & 5
OPP 28
+4
95.3%
HAWAII Penalty, offside defense (Kennedy Tulimasealii) to the Hawa 24Similar
Q2 9:44
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+24
97.6%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Holden Huff for 24 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 9:44
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
97.7%
Rigoberto Sanchez punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Donte Deayon at the BoiSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 14PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 8:21
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+3
98.0%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 3 yds to the BoiSt 36Similar
Q2 8:21
4TH & 7
OWN 36
0
97.9%
Sean Wale punt for 52 yds , Nick Nelson returns for no gain to the Hawa 36 HAWAII Penalty, Offensive holding (Jerrol Garcia-Williams) to the Hawa 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 15INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
98.5%
Max Wittek pass intercepted Darian Thompson return for no gain to the Hawa 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 16TD2 plays · 12 yds · 0:3598% → 99%
HAWDrive 17PUNT6 plays · -6 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 6:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-12
98.7%
WITTEK, Max pass complete to STUBBLEFIELD, D for 6 yards to the UH31, PENALTY UH pass interference (STUBBLEFIELD, D) 12 yards to the UH13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:46
2ND & 22
OWN 13
0
98.7%
Max Wittek pass incomplete to Devan Stubblefield, broken up by Donte DeayonSimilar
Q2 6:46
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+16
98.7%
Rigoberto Sanchez punt for 56 yds , Donte Deayon returns for 16 yds to the BoiSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 18TD9 plays · 59 yds · 3:3399% → 99%
HAWDrive 19DOWNS10 plays · 36 yds · 1:031% → 1%
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
99.2%
Max Wittek pass complete to Paul Harris for 14 yds to the Hawa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+8
99.1%
Max Wittek pass complete to Marcus Kemp for 8 yds to the BoiSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
99.2%
Max Wittek pass incomplete to Dylan Collie, broken up by Darian ThompsonSimilar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
99.2%
Max Wittek pass incomplete to Marcus Kemp, broken up by Jonathan MoxeySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 20TD8 plays · 61 yds · 0:4799% → 99%
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+17
99.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Chaz Anderson for 17 yds to the Hawa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+15
99.4%
RYPIEN, Brett pass intercepted by CASTRO, Jeremy at the UH33, CASTRO, Jeremy return to the UH47, out-of-bounds (ROH, Jake), PENALTY UH roughing passer (RASMUSSEN, Kory) 15 yards to the UH27, 1ST DOWN BSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
99.4%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Chaz Anderson, broken up by Nick NelsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 21END OF HALF2 plays · 10 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 22FG14 plays · 67 yds · 4:52100% → 100%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+3
99.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Chaz Anderson for 3 yds to the BoiSt 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+10
99.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jake Roh for 10 yds to the BoiSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
99.5%
Jeremy McNichols run for 11 yds to the BOISEST 49 BOISE ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the BoiSt 41Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
99.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 8 yds to the Hawa 38Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+11
99.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 11 yds to the Hawa 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 23DOWNS7 plays · 40 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.8%
WOOLSEY, Ikaika pass incomplete to KEMP, Marcus (MOXEY, Jonathan), PENALTY BSU roughing passer (TAIMATUIA, J.) 15 yards to the UH40, 1ST DOWN UH, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+23
99.8%
Melvin Davis run for 8 yds to the BoiSt 48 for a 1ST down BOISE ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the BoiSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:08
4TH & 8
OPP 35
0
99.7%
Ikaika Woolsey pass incomplete to Marcus Kemp, broken up by Jonathan MoxeySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 24PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
HAWDrive 25PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
BOISDrive 26PUNT7 plays · 12 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 4:49
4TH & 11
OWN 45
+11
99.8%
Sean Wale punt for 44 yds , Nick Nelson returns for 11 yds to the Hawa 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 27PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 2:10
4TH & 8
OWN 24
+40
99.9%
Rigoberto Sanchez punt for 55 yds , Kelsey Young returns for 40 yds to the Hawa 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 28PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:06100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 29FUMBLE1 play · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
99.9%
Melvin Davis run for 1 yd to the Hawa 19 Melvin Davis fumbled, forced by Mercy Maston, recovered by BoiSt Leighton Vander EschSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 30FG6 plays · 0 yds · 1:51100% → 100%
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
99.9%
Thomas Stuart pass complete to Akilian Butler for 4 yds to the Hawa 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 31INT4 plays · 13 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.9%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Marcus Kemp for 9 yds to the Hawa 34Similar
Q4 12:17
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
99.9%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Marcus Kemp for 4 yds to the Hawa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.9%
Ikaika Woolsey pass intercepted Darren Lee return for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 32PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 33DOWNS13 plays · 38 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 9:38
3RD & 3
OWN 21
+9
100.0%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Marcus Kemp for 9 yds to the Hawa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
99.9%
Ikaika Woolsey pass incomplete to Devan Stubblefield, broken up by Jabril FrazierSimilar
Q4 9:38
4TH & 12
OPP 48
0
100.0%
Ikaika Woolsey pass incomplete to Devan Stubblefield, broken up by Raymond FordSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 34END OF GAME8 plays · 37 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 14:36
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 21 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)
+2.3
TD · Q2 9:44
Brett Rypien pass complete to Holden Huff for 24 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)
+2.3
TD · Q1 5:11
Jeremy McNichols run for 13 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)
+1.1